SurveyUSA: Coleman ahead of Franken and Ciresi by 7% and 6%

[TheresNoMoney]

Not exactly great numbers for Norm Coleman.

Coleman:    49%
Franken:     42%

Coleman:    48%
Ciresi:         42%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=6268424d-fbb9-4bb8-8667-d383a80359ce

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

See, his 20 point lead was never going to last.

[Jaggerjack]

Here's to hoping it keeps going down.

[Tender Branson]

From a 25% in May to a 6-7% lead in July and it´s still a year to go until the final campaign weeks begin. Look like a Democratic pickup. Is there a poll indicating if Franken or Ciresi is ahead in the primary ? Given that Ciresi is doing as well as Franken aganst Coleman they should be tied now ?

[Verily]

Exceptionally strong showing from Ciresi, who has never run for statewide office. Also, the "more polarizing" factor of Franken hardly emerges at all; a whole one-point gain for Coleman over the more generic race with Ciresi.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Exceptionally strong showing from Ciresi, who has never run for statewide office.

Actually he has but didn't win the primary (2000 Senate).

[Verily]

Exceptionally strong showing from Ciresi, who has never run for statewide office.

Actually he has but didn't win the primary (2000 Senate).

Someone needs to update his Wikipedia page, at least from when I last looked at it.

[Tender Branson]

Question: Why is Coleman doing so well among young voters ?

Basically he leads by double-digits there, while he loses support the older the voters get and is trailing among the 65+ voters.

Isn´t that a bad sign that Coleman is likely to be finished when the 2006 exit poll showed Klobuchar winning the youth vote by about the same margin she got statewide ? I can´t believe Coleman will win the youth vote in November 2008 ...

Either this or the MN youth is really in love with Coleman (right now) ...

[12th Doctor]

Here's to hoping it keeps going down.

Its sad that you hate anyone with an (R) beside their name so much that you would rather have someone who is completely unqualified, both personally and professionally, to be a US Senator.  Franken would accomplish nothing during his one term.

[Eraserhead]

So it now appears Coleman is on his way to being beaten by Al Franken? Wow the GOP may want reconsider being an actual political party at this point.

[Conan]

Survey USA is obviously just a bunch of democratic hacks. Franken is def. not anywhere near Coleman!

[Adlai Stevenson]

This is encouraging news.  I still favour Ciresi to take on Coleman, however, but in Minnesota in 2008 Norm Coleman is obviously vulnerable. 

[opebo]

Survey USA is obviously just a bunch of democratic hacks. Franken is def. not anywhere near Coleman!

You seem awfully sure.  Remember, Minnesotans dislike Coleman, hate Bush, and actively dislike the GOP at present.  Even a Franken isn't so awful as to counteract all that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So, much for Coleman being safe if Franken wins the nomination. As long as Coleman defends the Bush reckless policies, in blue states the republicans are going to be threatened.

[Sam Spade]

Just as a reminder:  Since SUSA and M-D both showed Coleman up ~20% before, I would suggest waiting for a validating poll (not the Star-Tribune one) before accepting the results here as "fact".  I am especially cautious b/c we are in the middle of summer.  Of course, that validating poll may take another couple of months, such is life polling 18 months before an election.

Remember, this could always be the one in 20.  Of course, maybe it is just validating what we've seen in the approval polls by SUSA.

Food for thought.

[MasterJedi]

Polls over a year from an election won't matter. Nobody has started to really campaign yet. So we should hold off on the "OMG his poll numbers went down, it's obviously going to continue and he's going to lose" when the race hasn't even started yet.

[Wiz in Wis]

Polls over a year from an election won't matter. Nobody has started to really campaign yet. So we should hold off on the "OMG his poll numbers went down, it's obviously going to continue and he's going to lose" when the race hasn't even started yet.

Quite true. In fact, the only illustrative numbers that matter at this point are fundraising numbers... of course, that doesn't bode well for Coleman either.

PS, big props for standing by Tommy Thompson when the rest of the R's have chosen more flashy but also more flawed alternatives... Tommy probably has as much of a chance of winning in the general as any of the frontrunners... not that I think he would. But still, nice to see some home state pride.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Question: Why is Coleman doing so well among young voters ?

Sample size of roughly 176. Don't read too far into it.

Here's to hoping it keeps going down.

Its sad that you hate anyone with an (R) beside their name so much that you would rather have someone who is completely unqualified, both personally and professionally, to be a US Senator.  Franken would accomplish nothing during his one term.

Oh the horror. A Democrat supports Democrats in the Senate!

Coleman is a worthless hack who keeps backing Bush and the war. He is not deserving of Paul Wellstone's Senate seat, and that's why the left hates him, no Republican is worthy to hold that seat. And the number 1 reason he must go: He votes for Mitch McConnell for Senate Majority Leader. Anyone who does so must go.

BTW, I agree that Franken is polarizing, but so is Coleman, and just about any other candidate would be as well. It's just the nature of the state. The GOP has a fairly solid base, but in most counties about 40% of the population won't vote for any Republican. That's why landslides don't happen here that often, only when someone has a good record of accomplishments and of working with the other side (Arne Carlson) or is running against a total f**king incompetant idiot (Amy Klobuchar)

[MasterJedi]

Polls over a year from an election won't matter. Nobody has started to really campaign yet. So we should hold off on the "OMG his poll numbers went down, it's obviously going to continue and he's going to lose" when the race hasn't even started yet.

Quite true. In fact, the only illustrative numbers that matter at this point are fundraising numbers... of course, that doesn't bode well for Coleman either.

PS, big props for standing by Tommy Thompson when the rest of the R's have chosen more flashy but also more flawed alternatives... Tommy probably has as much of a chance of winning in the general as any of the frontrunners... not that I think he would. But still, nice to see some home state pride.

I'll also clarify myself now as well, with that I'm not saying Coleman can't lose because he very well can. It's just way too early to be doing anything by poll numbers.

And haha, I'm supporting Tommy for home state pride and because he's the one that really has come out with ideas for important issues and has proven he can get things done while he was Governor. Tommy for Governor 2010!

[12th Doctor]

Oh the horror. A Democrat supports Democrats in the Senate!

I'm sorry, I guess I forgot that, being a member of a Party automatically means that you have to have some kinda mindless loyalty to them.  This would, of course, explain why I, being a Republican, voted for Ed Rendell in 2006.  Believe it or not, there is something worse than having someone from the opposite party in office... having someone who is totally incompetant in office.  Sorry, but I don't think that Staurt Smalley has what it takes to be a US Senator.  True, we have Arnold in California, but being a Senator requires a certain grasp on a large range of issues and detailed knowledge at that.  Sorry, I don't see Mr. Smalley sitting in on a committee for Welfare Reform and having much to add of value to the circumstances.  Being a governor is a bit different than that.  Executive leadership doesn't require the same attention to detail, esspecially since you have to be willing to just roll with a finaly product that basically gets what you want done.  Even then, there is a difference between someone like Arnold and someone like Swann, I could tell that.  Franken's only asset is his loud, obnoxious mouth.  He should stick to his unfunny comedy.

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Coleman went after the UN... that makes him golden in my book, but if you like an internation den of theives in your backyard just because you think American Power is worse, then I can understand why you would be against that.  Eitherway, I was unaware it was "Wellstone's seat".  Are we awaiting some kinda Second Coming?  You want to talk about hacks, Wellstone was one of the biggest hacks in the world.  It is unreal how many times he railroaded the democratic process by tag teaming with Jesse Helms in order to withhold unanimous concent from this-bill or that.  Peopel act like he was this pure champion, he was just a self-important, ego maniac.

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Well, Al Franken is an incompetant idiot.  End of point.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So it now appears Coleman is on his way to being beaten by Al Franken? Wow the GOP may want reconsider being an actual political party at this point.

What?

[Eraserhead]

So it now appears Coleman is on his way to being beaten by Al Franken? Wow the GOP may want reconsider being an actual political party at this point.

What?

Did that statement confuse you?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh the horror. A Democrat supports Democrats in the Senate!

I'm sorry, I guess I forgot that, being a member of a Party automatically means that you have to have some kinda mindless loyalty to them.  This would, of course, explain why I, being a Republican, voted for Ed Rendell in 2006.  Believe it or not, there is something worse than having someone from the opposite party in office... having someone who is totally incompetant in office.  Sorry, but I don't think that Staurt Smalley has what it takes to be a US Senator.  True, we have Arnold in California, but being a Senator requires a certain grasp on a large range of issues and detailed knowledge at that.  Sorry, I don't see Mr. Smalley sitting in on a committee for Welfare Reform and having much to add of value to the circumstances.  Being a governor is a bit different than that.  Executive leadership doesn't require the same attention to detail, esspecially since you have to be willing to just roll with a finaly product that basically gets what you want done.  Even then, there is a difference between someone like Arnold and someone like Swann, I could tell that.  Franken's only asset is his loud, obnoxious mouth.  He should stick to his unfunny comedy.

I have never ever voted for a Republican in my life.

I don't give a damn how knowledgeable someone is on the issues if they won't vote the way I want them to. Coleman doesn't, so I'd favor replacing him with a monkey who voted the liberal line if that was possible.

Coleman went after the UN... that makes him golden in my book, but if you like an internation den of theives in your backyard just because you think American Power is worse, then I can understand why you would be against that.  Eitherway, I was unaware it was "Wellstone's seat".  Are we awaiting some kinda Second Coming?  You want to talk about hacks, Wellstone was one of the biggest hacks in the world.  It is unreal how many times he railroaded the democratic process by tag teaming with Jesse Helms in order to withhold unanimous concent from this-bill or that.  Peopel act like he was this pure champion, he was just a self-important, ego maniac.

Oh great, Coleman bashed the UN. He has my vote for sure.

If that's the way you think, you should support the only presidential candidate who supports withdrawal from the UN: Ron Paul.

As for the rest, blah blah blah, regardless of what you think of Wellstone, liberals will always hate Coleman for that. Period, end of story. It's no different from Casey, who receives a million times more ire from the right than Sheldon Whitehouse, despite the fact Whitehouse is FAR to his left.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So it now appears Coleman is on his way to being beaten by Al Franken? Wow the GOP may want reconsider being an actual political party at this point.

What?

Did that statement confuse you?

No, it just doesn't seem to fit with the poll at all...

[Ebowed]

No, it just doesn't seem to fit with the poll at all...

I think the idea is that if Coleman is only 7% ahead of a candidate and below 50% this early into the election, and the season is favorable to the Democrats, it indicates a Democratic victory.