Obama might send troops into Pakistan

[Colin]

Well this is a bad idea, probably worse than Iraq in the long run. Everything that Ernest said is pretty much accurate, not only would this be violating the sovereignty of a foreign nation that is nominally an ally of the United States but it would also mean that one of the last supporters of General Musharref, the US, would very openly be saying, we do not trust you anymore you are of no use to us. Beyond that the repurcussions of an American invasion into Pakistan would destablize Musharref, the military, and secular/pro-Western elements within the Pakistani government leading to either a multi-faceted civil war akin to the Iraqi problem or the creation of an Islamic state along the lines of Iran. We have already seen these Islamist elements within Pakistani society in the recent Mosque shoot-out which lasted for over a week. These forces, along with overall discontent with both Musharref and his pro-Western policies, could explode if US troops, overtly, cross the border into Pakistan.

The problems with this sort of scenario occur is quite major. First the pocession of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal comes into doubt in both a civil war or theocracy scenario. Both could allow even more weapons technology to fall into the hands of enemy states and, possibly, terrorist organizations. Secondly, unlike Iraq were the largest country that would be involved in any sort of implosion in the country would be Turkey or Iran, an implosion of the Pakistani government and either a state of civil war or the creation of a theocratic state would almost certain merit a response from India in some fashion. India would most likely put pressure on the US and on whatever government is in power in Pakistan at that time to maintain some sort of order. Add to that an increased presence along the border and a possible flair up in activity along the Kashmiri front and things could get quite heated on the sub-continent. That is if the Pakistani government is mostly sane or is basically a puppet of the US. If it is an irrational theocracy along the lines of the Taliban or President al-Bashir's government in the Sudan there could be even worse problems than a few skirmishes in Kashmir and more troops along the Indian-Pakistani border.

So overall, could bin Laden and al-Qaeda terrorists be hiding in Pakistan, yes, is Pakistan not doing enough to find the terrorists, possibly, but any overt incursion by US forces into Pakistan could easily break the delicate political balancing act that Pervez Musharref has used to keep a hold on power and some sense of stability in government. Now covert means, maybe having the CIA do some of the things that the CIA was meant to do instead of sitting around all day watching CNN and guessing at what's happening in other countries, could work as long as there was some deniability to the operation.