New Jersey on UK-Sized Constituencies
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Author Topic: New Jersey on UK-Sized Constituencies  (Read 3709 times)
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #25 on: September 05, 2007, 11:48:44 AM »

(And as far as Union County goes, I'd expect Westfield/NP to lean Republican, Roselle/Cranford to be competitive but Democratic, and Summit/Millburn to be in the Democratic column come 2007.  All the rest are largely safe Democrat, with the incompatible town of Plainfield totally overwhelming nominally Republican Scotch Plains.  (Just like they're currently overwhelmed in the 22nd right now!)
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #26 on: September 05, 2007, 12:02:04 PM »
« Edited: September 05, 2007, 12:04:26 PM by Verily »

Here's Somerset County. The name "Somerset South West" is feeble but the best I could create.

This one is difficult for political leanings. Somerset South West is clearly heavily Republican, but all the other districts contain Democratic and Republican areas. My guess is that Somerville is somewhat safe for the Democrats, North Plainfield and Far Hills is somewhat safe for the Republicans, and Bound Brook and Somerset is a complete toss-up.

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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #27 on: September 05, 2007, 12:05:23 PM »


All but Bound Brook/Somerset (which leans Democratic) are Republican.  Somerville would probably be somewhat competitive, but still GOP.
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Alcon
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« Reply #28 on: September 05, 2007, 04:54:25 PM »

I thought I'd pointlessly mention that I tried this with Washington once and got up to like district 32 before I wanted to shoot myself and take Chelan County with me.  Doing it by precincts instead of towns made for some freaky damn districts.

Good job.  Cool stuff.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #29 on: September 05, 2007, 05:13:32 PM »


All but Bound Brook/Somerset (which leans Democratic) are Republican.  Somerville would probably be somewhat competitive, but still GOP.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Somerset County as a whole is about R+1. The Somerset South West district is easily R+10, which means the rest of the county leans marginally Democratic. Of course, some of that is concentrated in Bound Brook and Somerset, which is about D+3 (you're right, I was underestimating the size of Somerset itself), but Somerville should also be about D+3 with the Democratic-leaning Somerville, Raritan and Manville balancing out the GOP-leaning Bridgewater. North Plainfield and Far Hills contains Democratic areas in the east but is probably around R+5 overall. The Somerset areas of Morristown and Bernardsville should be around R+3; Bernardsville is marginal, but the Bernards Twp areas are Republican.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #30 on: September 05, 2007, 05:32:25 PM »
« Edited: September 05, 2007, 07:30:54 PM by Verily »

Middlesex County:

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Cuivienen
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« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2007, 07:38:38 PM »

Not the most exciting county, but here's Sussex. Both districts are obviously Republican, Andover and Hopatcong somewhat less so than North Sussex but still quite safe.

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Cuivienen
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« Reply #32 on: September 06, 2007, 02:07:12 PM »

More small counties; Warren and Hunterdon.



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« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2007, 04:33:44 PM »

I thought I'd pointlessly mention that I tried this with Washington once and got up to like district 32 before I wanted to shoot myself and take Chelan County with me.  Doing it by precincts instead of towns made for some freaky damn districts.

Good job.  Cool stuff.

maps plz
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #34 on: September 07, 2007, 04:03:09 PM »

Mercer County.

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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #35 on: September 07, 2007, 04:27:48 PM »


All but Bound Brook/Somerset (which leans Democratic) are Republican.  Somerville would probably be somewhat competitive, but still GOP.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. Somerset County as a whole is about R+1. The Somerset South West district is easily R+10, which means the rest of the county leans marginally Democratic. Of course, some of that is concentrated in Bound Brook and Somerset, which is about D+3 (you're right, I was underestimating the size of Somerset itself), but Somerville should also be about D+3 with the Democratic-leaning Somerville, Raritan and Manville balancing out the GOP-leaning Bridgewater. North Plainfield and Far Hills contains Democratic areas in the east but is probably around R+5 overall. The Somerset areas of Morristown and Bernardsville should be around R+3; Bernardsville is marginal, but the Bernards Twp areas are Republican.

On a whole though, where it counts, those marginal places still elect Republicans on the local level.

If Somerville has a Republican mayor, I'd guess Somerville would have a Republican MP.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #36 on: September 07, 2007, 04:30:37 PM »

Obviously, in Mercer, all but Hamilton would be Democratic.  The Republican-leaning towns on the Hunterdon border would be totally overwhelmed by the Princeton slug of super Dems.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #37 on: September 07, 2007, 04:36:07 PM »

Obviously, in Mercer, all but Hamilton would be Democratic.  The Republican-leaning towns on the Hunterdon border would be totally overwhelmed by the Princeton slug of super Dems.

Well, there are hardly any people in those towns, so one would expect them to be overwhelmed. The real choice was whether to overwhelm them with Princeton or Ewing.

I wonder why you think Trenton Gardens and Hamilton, and not Hightstown, would be the vulnerable district.
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Alcon
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« Reply #38 on: September 07, 2007, 04:45:36 PM »

I thought I'd pointlessly mention that I tried this with Washington once and got up to like district 32 before I wanted to shoot myself and take Chelan County with me.  Doing it by precincts instead of towns made for some freaky damn districts.

Good job.  Cool stuff.

maps plz

Can't.  No standardized map format since the 2000 Census release.  I could only do a half-assed overlay with pretty guesstimated lines.  Much of it I did by memory, and I'd have to get the maps out again.

Sorry, as fun as it'd be.  Tongue
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #39 on: September 07, 2007, 05:35:40 PM »

Monmouth County. The shore counties were all stupidly difficult because of the tiny hamlets on the coast and enormous townships inland.

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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #40 on: November 08, 2007, 07:57:36 PM »

With the election of Mayors Hipp, Cassella, Heck and Roseman by commanding margins, as well as the election of two Republicans in North Arlington, I think the Meadowlands district moves Leans/Safe Republican
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