Virgnia

[GPORTER]

Well?

[auburntiger]

VA=Lean Republican

[GPORTER]

VA=Lean Republican

I would agree. Though I know without a doubt that Virgnia is trending democratic.

[auburntiger]

I'm sure it is, but not fast enough to turn blue in 2008.
Sometimes states like a Virginia seem like they're trending one way, and then will make a reverse trend back the other way.
Examples:
FL, AZ for the GOP
MN, WI for the Dems

NM and IA, I feel will always be purple

NH - will continue to trend Dem (strongly)
GA - wil continue to trend GOP (strongly)

Colorado and Virginia seem to be trending Dem for the time being, but that maybe because of a backlash against Bush

[agcatter]

Hillary Clinton is NOT going to win Virginia.  You won't see her throwing resources into that state anymore than you'll see Rudy putting time and money into Maine or Vermont.

[Tender Branson]

The latest SUSA poll in VA shows Giuliani ahead of Clinton by 4%, Bush won by 8%. So I think Clinton will lose VA by about 4-6% next year.

Giuliani: 51%
Clinton: 46%
Others: 3%

It could also be considerably closer, looking at the rate NoVA trends towards the Democrats. For example look at Loudoun county, VA´s fastest growing county. The population increase amounted to 60% from 2000-2006. VA´s fastest growing counties are, contrary to most other fast growing counties in the US, trending heavily Democratic:

Loudoun County, VA:

2000:

Bush: 56% (+15)
Gore: 41%

VA margin: Bush (+8)
Net margin of Loudoun Co.: R+7

2004:

Bush: 56% (+12)
Kerry: 44%

VA margin: Bush (+8)
Net margin of Loudoun Co.: R+4

2005:

Kaine: 52% (+6)
Kilgore: 46%

VA margin: Kaine (+6)
Net margin of Loudoun Co.: Even

2006:

Webb: 50.1% (+1.4)
Allen: 48.7%

VA margin: Webb (+0.4)
Net margin of Loudoun Co.: D+2

Take the maps here:



And compare them with the 2004 VA election results + trend map:





That doesn´t mean though that Rural VA can`t make Hillary look like a fool ...

[GPORTER]

The latest SUSA poll in VA shows Giuliani ahead of Clinton by 4%, Bush won by 8%. So I think Clinton will lose VA by about 4-6% next year.

Giuliani: 51%
Clinton: 46%
Others: 3%

It could also be considerably closer, looking at the rate NoVA trends towards the Democrats. For example look at Loudoun county, VA´s fastest growing county. The population increase amounted to 60% from 2000-2006. VA´s fastest growing counties are, contrary to most other fast growing counties in the US, trending heavily Democratic:

Loudoun County, VA:

2000:

Bush: 56% (+15)
Gore: 41%

VA margin: Bush (+8)
Net margin of Loudoun Co.: R+7

2004:

Bush: 56% (+12)
Kerry: 44%

VA margin: Bush (+8)
Net margin of Loudoun Co.: R+4

2005:

Kaine: 52% (+6)
Kilgore: 46%

VA margin: Kaine (+6)
Net margin of Loudoun Co.: Even

2006:

Webb: 50.1% (+1.4)
Allen: 48.7%

VA margin: Webb (+0.4)
Net margin of Loudoun Co.: D+2

Take the maps here:



And compare them with the 2004 VA election results + trend map:





That doesn´t mean though that Rural VA can`t make Hillary look like a fool ...

What really made me think that Virgnia was trending democratic, was when George Allen lost his bid for reelection last year. I really did not think that that would happen, un til he made the macacca comment. And even then, I thought that he still had a chance.

[Smash255]

Slight edge to rudy at this point, though that could change.  Northern VA is absolutley flying Democratic (as shown above) and the Dems do have a real legit shot at taking it in 08.  Though I would say at this point they would have to win by about 3 points nationally to take VA.

[MAS117]

Lean R

[Lief]

Democrats would need to win nationally 52-46 or so.

[Kevin]

You Democrats are really fooling yourselves in you think Virginia is going Democratic next year it will go to whoever the Republican is by about the same margin as last time. NOVa maybe flying Democratic but not fast enough to give the state to Hillary next year. Allen would have won last year if it wasn't for his stupity and sheer incompentence.

[auburntiger]

I hate to think we'd have to worry about losing VA, cause if we do, the election is already lost

[Smash255]

You Democrats are really fooling yourselves in you think Virginia is going Democratic next year it will go to whoever the Republican is by about the same margin as last time. NOVa maybe flying Democratic but not fast enough to give the state to Hillary next year. Allen would have won last year if it wasn't for his stupity and sheer incompentence.

The state will be about 3 points more GOP than nationally, Dems have a decent chance of taking it

[MODU]

You Democrats are really fooling yourselves in you think Virginia is going Democratic next year it will go to whoever the Republican is by about the same margin as last time. NOVa maybe flying Democratic but not fast enough to give the state to Hillary next year. Allen would have won last year if it wasn't for his stupity and sheer incompentence.

The state will be about 3 points more GOP than nationally, Dems have a decent chance of taking it

It depends on who the candidate is.  VA will vote for a moderate to centrist candidate, but not for a left-leaning to hard-left candidate.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Completely up in the air. If the dems run a socialist like Edwards or a hack like HRC probably not. A moderate like obama/richardson? Sure I could see a dem victory.

[auburntiger]

Completely up in the air. If the dems run a socialist like Edwards or a hack like HRC probably not. A moderate like obama/richardson? Sure I could see a dem victory.

Not really, VA has a strong conservative base.  2008 will be no different - the Republican will win. None of the Dem candidates would carry VA in 2008, unless there was a Virginian running

[Big DaddyTX]

The only way that the Republicans can lose Virginia, is if Mark Warner is on the ticket somewhere, and that's the only chance they have.

 Atleast for 2008.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Completely up in the air. If the dems run a socialist like Edwards or a hack like HRC probably not. A moderate like obama/richardson? Sure I could see a dem victory.

Not really, VA has a strong conservative base.  2008 will be no different - the Republican will win. None of the Dem candidates would carry VA in 2008, unless there was a Virginian running

Explain how the dems managed to get Allen out of the senate. hmmm?

[Smash255]

Completely up in the air. If the dems run a socialist like Edwards or a hack like HRC probably not. A moderate like obama/richardson? Sure I could see a dem victory.

Not really, VA has a strong conservative base.  2008 will be no different - the Republican will win. None of the Dem candidates would carry VA in 2008, unless there was a Virginian running

Explain how the dems managed to get Allen out of the senate. hmmm?

Well Allen caused much of his own problems.  VA can be won by the Dems without a VA Dem on the ticket.  Its a tossup with a ever so slight GOP lean at this point.  As I said earlier anything more than a 3 point Dem national victory likely gives the Dems VA (and they could win it with less).

[classical liberal]

...
Explain how the dems managed to get Allen out of the senate. hmmm?

By running Ronald Reagan's Navy Secretary (to join Sen. Warner, Nixon's Navy Secretary) against a publicly outed racist, and then only winning by <.5% of the vote.  Keep in mind that there are a lot of Indian-Americans in Loudon County (esp. Reston/Herndon), as well as the rest of NOVA.  I would not be surprised if Allen's racial slur provoked a trend towards the Dems in excess of its natural rate in NOVA in 2006.

B.T.W., Gov. Warner was a Catholic missionary, which gave him the credentials to win votes in Southwestern and Southern VA.

Given than the GOP is not running a publicly outed racist, and the Dems aren't running a Christian missionary, I have a hard time seeing the GOP loosing VA (like Allen lost his Senate seat) or the Dems winning it (like Warner won his gubernatorial mansion).

[Verily]

...
Explain how the dems managed to get Allen out of the senate. hmmm?

By running Ronald Reagan's Navy Secretary (to join Sen. Warner, Nixon's Navy Secretary) against a publicly outed racist, and then only winning by <.5% of the vote.  Keep in mind that there are a lot of Indian-Americans in Loudon County (esp. Reston/Herndon), as well as the rest of NOVA.  I would not be surprised if Allen's racial slur provoked a trend towards the Dems in excess of its natural rate in NOVA in 2006.

B.T.W., Gov. Warner was a Catholic missionary, which gave him the credentials to win votes in Southwestern and Southern VA.

Given than the GOP is not running a publicly outed racist, and the Dems aren't running a Christian missionary, I have a hard time seeing the GOP loosing VA (like Allen lost his Senate seat) or the Dems winning it (like Warner won his gubernatorial mansion).

Clearly the Catholic vote in Southern Virginia swung hard to Warner. They went from splitting evenly to both voting Democrat.

[Kevin]

...
Explain how the dems managed to get Allen out of the senate. hmmm?

By running Ronald Reagan's Navy Secretary (to join Sen. Warner, Nixon's Navy Secretary) against a publicly outed racist, and then only winning by <.5% of the vote.  Keep in mind that there are a lot of Indian-Americans in Loudon County (esp. Reston/Herndon), as well as the rest of NOVA.  I would not be surprised if Allen's racial slur provoked a trend towards the Dems in excess of its natural rate in NOVA in 2006.

B.T.W., Gov. Warner was a Catholic missionary, which gave him the credentials to win votes in Southwestern and Southern VA.

Given than the GOP is not running a publicly outed racist, and the Dems aren't running a Christian missionary, I have a hard time seeing the GOP loosing VA (like Allen lost his Senate seat) or the Dems winning it (like Warner won his gubernatorial mansion).

Allen pretty much closed off any inroads the Republicans could have made among Indian-Americans in the state who tend to be well off and socially conservative.   

[PrisonerOfHope]

Any Dem now has a much better chance since Warner is retiring, and ex-Gov Warner is expected to run and pick up seat.  The poll is Giuliani v. Clinton which would be close, but I highly doubt Giuliani will win nomination.  Clinton stomps Romney and Thompson in national polls and that is strong evidence that she could close the 3-4% demographic lean.

[Stranger in a strange land]

right now I'd say the state leans very slightly to the GOP. However if Mark Warner is running for senate against token opposition that will definately help whoever the dem nominee is.

[Tender Branson]

However if Mark Warner is running for senate against token opposition that will definately help whoever the dem nominee is.

And he will ...

(But probably not enough to swing the state ...)