SC GOP Primary to be Jan. 19; New NH primary date likely announced tomorrow too

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

(The State)

It'll be made official at a news conference in New Hampshire tomorrow, and is reported to be Saturday, January 19.  New Hampshire officials will be there too, so expect them to announce the New Hampshire primary will be moved up to at least Tuesday, January 15 if not earlier.  This will almost certainly cause Iowa to bump up at least a week to Monday, January 7 if not earlier.

[Tender Branson]

BTW: When is the deadline for the primary/caucus calendar ? What´s the date all states must have their respective primaries/caucuses set ?

[Mr. Morden]

New Hampshire officials will be there too, so expect them to announce the New Hampshire primary will be moved up to at least Tuesday, January 15 if not earlier.

Marc Ambinder is claiming that "Some New Hampshire sources are hearing that Gardner intends to hold the primary on either Monday, Jan. 7 or Tuesday, Jan. 8. But Gardner keeps his own council, so no one really knows."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/08/news_south_carolina_gop_to_hol.php

In any case, just to remind people, if either IA or NH moves their contest any earlier than the DNC-mandated dates for each, then their contests will not count towards the awarding of delegates for anyone who campaigns there (as in the case with FL).  (Of course, IA and NH don't have many delegates anyway.  Those contests are only important because of the momentum that they give the winners.  But this would provide a great excuse for any candidates who don't want to compete in those states to skip it.)

Also remember that the Michigan Dems have vowed that, if NH moves up its primary to a date earlier than the DNC-mandated date, then they'll hold their own caucus on the same day, even if that means moving it into 2007.  Though again, if they do that, then it won't actually count for the awarding of delegates for any candidate who campaigns there.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

BTW: When is the deadline for the primary/caucus calendar ? What´s the date all states must have their respective primaries/caucuses set ?

The RNC has supposedly set the day after Labor Day (for you European commies that's September 4 over here not May 2) as the day that dates must be set in stone, but I can't see how they will enforce that.  BTW, New Hampshire and Iowa have laws that require a one week period so if they decide to keep the same days of the week, that would make New Hampshire January 8 and Iowa December 31, altho I can't see Iowans mixing a caucus with New Year's or Christmas, so Iowa might get bumped up all the way to December 17 if they insist on holding the caucus on a Monday night.

[Tender Branson]

BTW: When is the deadline for the primary/caucus calendar ? What´s the date all states must have their respective primaries/caucuses set ?

The RNC has supposedly set the day after Labor Day (for you European commies that's September 4 over here not May 2) as the day that dates must be set in stone, but I can't see how they will enforce that.  BTW, New Hampshire and Iowa have laws that require a one week period so if they decide to keep the same days of the week, that would make New Hampshire January 8 and Iowa December 31, altho I can't see Iowans mixing a caucus with New Year's or Christmas, so Iowa might get bumped up all the way to December 17 if they insist on holding the caucus on a Monday night.

Thx for the info, I´d love to see a Christmas Caucus, coupled with the chilly winter "feeling" ...

PS: Labor day for us Commies in Europe is on May 1, not May 2 ...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

BTW: When is the deadline for the primary/caucus calendar ? What´s the date all states must have their respective primaries/caucuses set ?

The RNC has supposedly set the day after Labor Day (for you European commies that's September 4 over here not May 2) as the day that dates must be set in stone, but I can't see how they will enforce that.  BTW, New Hampshire and Iowa have laws that require a one week period so if they decide to keep the same days of the week, that would make New Hampshire January 8 and Iowa December 31, altho I can't see Iowans mixing a caucus with New Year's or Christmas, so Iowa might get bumped up all the way to December 17 if they insist on holding the caucus on a Monday night.

Thx for the info, I´d love to see a Christmas Caucus, coupled with the chilly winter "feeling" ...

PS: Labor day for us Commies in Europe is on May 1, not May 2 ...

Which makes the day after Labor Day when?

[StateBoiler]

New Hampshire officials will be there too, so expect them to announce the New Hampshire primary will be moved up to at least Tuesday, January 15 if not earlier.

Marc Ambinder is claiming that "Some New Hampshire sources are hearing that Gardner intends to hold the primary on either Monday, Jan. 7 or Tuesday, Jan. 8. But Gardner keeps his own council, so no one really knows."

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/08/news_south_carolina_gop_to_hol.php

In any case, just to remind people, if either IA or NH moves their contest any earlier than the DNC-mandated dates for each, then their contests will not count towards the awarding of delegates for anyone who campaigns there (as in the case with FL).  (Of course, IA and NH don't have many delegates anyway.  Those contests are only important because of the momentum that they give the winners.  But this would provide a great excuse for any candidates who don't want to compete in those states to skip it.)

Also remember that the Michigan Dems have vowed that, if NH moves up its primary to a date earlier than the DNC-mandated date, then they'll hold their own caucus on the same day, even if that means moving it into 2007.  Though again, if they do that, then it won't actually count for the awarding of delegates for any candidate who campaigns there.

The earliest primary/caucus is so important and the convention itself has become so unimportant that loss of delegates is meaningless. So the victory is far more important than the delegates the victor gets.

[Tender Branson]

BTW: When is the deadline for the primary/caucus calendar ? What´s the date all states must have their respective primaries/caucuses set ?

The RNC has supposedly set the day after Labor Day (for you European commies that's September 4 over here not May 2) as the day that dates must be set in stone, but I can't see how they will enforce that.  BTW, New Hampshire and Iowa have laws that require a one week period so if they decide to keep the same days of the week, that would make New Hampshire January 8 and Iowa December 31, altho I can't see Iowans mixing a caucus with New Year's or Christmas, so Iowa might get bumped up all the way to December 17 if they insist on holding the caucus on a Monday night.

Thx for the info, I´d love to see a Christmas Caucus, coupled with the chilly winter "feeling" ...

PS: Labor day for us Commies in Europe is on May 1, not May 2 ...

Which makes the day after Labor Day when?

Ah sorry, read it too fast ...

[Erc]

The "penalty for early primaries/caucuses" is a Democratic-only thing, right?

[Tender Branson]

The "penalty for early primaries/caucuses" is a Democratic-only thing, right?

No. I think the RNC scraps half the delegates for candidates who campaign there.

[Mr. Morden]

The earliest primary/caucus is so important and the convention itself has become so unimportant that loss of delegates is meaningless. So the victory is far more important than the delegates the victor gets.

Well, getting the nomination is the important thing, and the nomination is decided by who has the most delegates.  So I'd say that delegates are pretty important.  But the point is that, if the candidates and the media collectively kind of "decide" that a particular contest is important (even if it doesn't include the awarding of any delegates), then it becomes important, because of it what it means for momentum in the campaign.  But those contests are only important in so far as they influence the results of the primaries in the big states, where the winners will get boatloads of delegates.  If, for example, NH didn't award any delegates for its primary *AND* both the candidates and the media decided to ignore it, then it really would be a meaningless contest.  But it looks probable that the media is going to pay attention to IA and NH regardless.

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No, not exactly.  It's just that the Dems are the only ones who will penalize the candidates so harshly that they could receive zero delegates from an early primary if they campaign there.  I think the GOP's penalty is to give any state that holds its primary before Feb. 5th half its normal share of delegates.  And the GOP has no exemptions for even IA and NH, so the only way they could escape those penalties is to vote in February (and there's no way they're going to do that).

[Mr. Morden]

The "penalty for early primaries/caucuses" is a Democratic-only thing, right?

No. I think the RNC scraps half the delegates for candidates who campaign there.

I think it's just a 50% reduction in the delegates for the state overall.  Doesn't matter which candidates campaign there and which don't.  That's why the Democratic penalties are more significant.  For the GOP, the state is losing half its delegates regardless, so if you're a candidate, you'll still get *something* if you campaign there and win.  For the Dems, the candidates themselves are punished if they campaign there, so there's a strong incentive to avoid the state altogether.

[jokerman]

Since when do NH and IA matter because of their delegates, anyway?  It's all about momentum.

[Sam Spade]

So, is Fred Thompson going to run or not?  Because before he actually enters the race, the primaries may already be over with.

[Eraserhead]

So, is Fred Thompson going to run or not?  Because before he actually enters the race, the primaries may already be over with.

lolz.

[Brandon H]

Any state that is threatened with losing half of its delegates just needs to threaten that it will with hold half of its electors in the general election. But I don't think any would have the guts to follow through.

[Tender Branson]

Since when do NH and IA matter because of their delegates, anyway?  It's all about momentum.

That´s correct, but the Democratic voters of a renegade primary state are the ones who suffer, because their vote is not worth anything at the convention.

[Keystone Phil]

And Iowa may be one week before Christmas. Absolutely ridiculous...though the political junkie inside of me kind of likes the weird idea of the vote for President being held the year before the actual election. It also allows us to seriously follow something of meaning during a usually political down time.

[jimrtex]

The "penalty for early primaries/caucuses" is a Democratic-only thing, right?

No.  In fact the GOP doesn't make an exception for IA, NV, NH, and SC.  This might be one reason that the SC GOP is willing to go even sooner, since there isn't an additional penalty.

The Florida Democratic Party has just sent their delegation selection plan to the national party, and has requested that they get their entire allotment.

[Reaganfan]

And Iowa may be one week before Christmas. Absolutely ridiculous...though the political junkie inside of me kind of likes the weird idea of the vote for President being held the year before the actual election. It also allows us to seriously follow something of meaning during a usually political down time.

Right. I guess it's something new. I wonder if the frontrunners will always benefit from now on, and if candidates like Carter, Clinton, and Kerry will be unable to come out of the race from behind?

[Mr. Morden]

More on this from the Politico:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0807/5308.html

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Also, here's something interesting froma  commenter on that site (not sure how accurate this is):

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[Mr. Morden]

The SC GOP has now made the move to Jan. 19th:

http://news.bostonherald.com/politics/view.bg?articleid=1016195

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By the way, I'm thinking that if Iowa and/or NH actually moves their contests into December, it'll dilute the importance of the caucus/primary.  If, say, Iowa votes in mid-December, I could imagine whatever momentum it generates petering out over Christmas/New Year's as people start focusing on the holidays rather than politics.  Thus, if the Michigan Dems really want to diminish the importance of IA and NH, they should hold their caucus on January 8th, which would probably prompt both IA and NH to move into December.

[Mr. Morden]

Culver is now saying that he wants to keep the Iowa caucus first, *and* he wants to keep it in January, which may mean changing Iowa law in order to provide for a pre-NH gap of less than the current 8 days:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0807/5328.html

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OK, but what is Culver going to do if, say, the Michigan Dems hold their caucus on January 2nd?  Hold the Iowa caucus on January 1st?  Depending on how assertive MI gets, IA may have to choose between holding their caucus in December and holding their caucus first.

[Mr. Morden]

Possible deal in the works that would put IA on Jan. 5th and NH on Jan. 12th:

http://update08.foxnews.com/

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