would hillary win any bush states?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Arkansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Louisiana, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and possibly Missouri.

[agcatter]

Those are all possibilities except Louisiana.  No way,

[WiseGuy]

Arkansas, Colorado, New Mexico, Louisiana, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and possibly Missouri.

Arkansas wouldn't go for her.  Only reason it went for Bill was they wanted him out of the state

[Jake]

Any Democrat has to be favored to add New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Missouri, and Nevada. Hillary could add Arkansas. If the Republican candidate is bad enough, Virginia, Arizona, and Tennesse could fall. That's the limit in my mind.

[opebo]

yes she should....

The following states I think are on the table:

New Mexico
Nevada
Colorado
Ohio
Iowa
Florida
Arkansas

In this order:

New Mexico
Iowa
Ohio
Nevada
Colorado
Florida
Arkansas

[tarheel-leftist85]

she'd could carry:

Very Good Chance--Florida, Arkansas, Iowa, New Mexico
Reasonably Good--Colorado, West Virginia, Ohio, Nevada
Significant Possibility--North Carolina, Virginia



there was a poll pitting the top three dems. against the top four reps. in NC.  i don't put a lot
of stock into overall poll numbers (stratification, results for small subsamples, name recognition of Republican candidates, etc.), but one thing that is interesting is that each dem. gets at least 37% of the white vote with, usually, some 10% of whites undecided.  let's say that the poll overestimated white dem. support but undecideds break so that once they are factored in, white support for the Dem. re-approaches at least 37%.  Even though African-Americans turned out in disproportionately large numbers in NC in 2004 (26% electorate compared to 21% of the population), with proportional turnout for the races (21% African-American, 5% Hispanic/Asian-Am./Other, 74% non-Hispanic White), here's what we're looking at as the Dem.'s floor of support:

0.21*90 + 0.05*55 + 0.74*37 = 49.03 (that is what i believe to be HRC, and thus the Dems. floor of support in NC for 2008)--> my prediction for HRC in NC versus her strongest competitor is that she'd lose the state 49.2% to 50.3%



Virginia is very similar to NC in that regard.  The Dem. is probably guaranteed around 37-41% of the white vote next go-around.  Let's look at Virginia:

0.20*90 + 0.08*60 + 0.72*37 = 49.44%--> my prediction for HRC in VA versus her strongest competitor is a Florida-style win/loss of 49.6%-49.6%



Florida will be tight, but she'll be in the same position as Bush in 2004:  mostly leading the FL polls narrowly, but a 3-5 pt. win on election night:

0.16*90 + 0.19*47 (avg. Hispanic vote for Dem. gubernatorial candidate in 2006 and Kerry in 2004) +0.65*44 = 51.93% --> My prediction--HRC w/ 52.0% and the Rep. w/ 47.3%

I think she'd beat Bill's share of the vote in Arkansas (not margin, but share).


The states she's most likely to lose are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.  I don't think Wisconsin or New Hampshire are going anywhere.  I would almost say that about PA too, but I''m on the fence.  Michigan and Minnesota are her biggest worries.  She'll win Florida before she wins Ohio.  Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties will turnout so heavily for her (even against Giuliani) that it would be enough to sustain under-performances along the I-4 corridor.  Though the growth *rate* in those 3 counties is lower than other parts of Florida, their growth is so large, and they are growing more in terms of raw numbers of people.  The Southern Gulf Coast will be beneficial to her as well it seems b/c (1) the housing boom is coming to a  close in that area and builders are stuck with homes they can't sell, (2) these Republican counties are still going to vote Republican in 2008 but there has been a trend towards Democrats (trends are ok to identify for smaller cases, as states--especially Florida--are really impossible to detect for electoral trends.)

i think her chances in Missouri are nil, unless we're looking at a three-person race.

[Jaggerjack]

she'd could carry:

Very Good Chance--Florida, Arkansas, Iowa, New Mexico
Reasonably Good--Colorado, West Virginia, Ohio, Nevada
Significant Possibility--North Carolina, Virginia



there was a poll pitting the top three dems. against the top four reps. in NC.  i don't put a lot
of stock into overall poll numbers (stratification, results for small subsamples, name recognition of Republican candidates, etc.), but one thing that is interesting is that each dem. gets at least 37% of the white vote with, usually, some 10% of whites undecided.  let's say that the poll overestimated white dem. support but undecideds break so that once they are factored in, white support for the Dem. re-approaches at least 37%.  Even though African-Americans turned out in disproportionately large numbers in NC in 2004 (26% electorate compared to 21% of the population), with proportional turnout for the races (21% African-American, 5% Hispanic/Asian-Am./Other, 74% non-Hispanic White), here's what we're looking at as the Dem.'s floor of support:

0.21*90 + 0.05*55 + 0.74*37 = 49.03 (that is what i believe to be HRC, and thus the Dems. floor of support in NC for 2008)--> my prediction for HRC in NC versus her strongest competitor is that she'd lose the state 49.2% to 50.3%



Virginia is very similar to NC in that regard.  The Dem. is probably guaranteed around 37-41% of the white vote next go-around.  Let's look at Virginia:

0.20*90 + 0.08*60 + 0.72*37 = 49.44%--> my prediction for HRC in VA versus her strongest competitor is a Florida-style win/loss of 49.6%-49.6%



Florida will be tight, but she'll be in the same position as Bush in 2004:  mostly leading the FL polls narrowly, but a 3-5 pt. win on election night:

0.16*90 + 0.19*47 (avg. Hispanic vote for Dem. gubernatorial candidate in 2006 and Kerry in 2004) +0.65*44 = 51.93% --> My prediction--HRC w/ 52.0% and the Rep. w/ 47.3%

I think she'd beat Bill's share of the vote in Arkansas (not margin, but share).


The states she's most likely to lose are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota.  I don't think Wisconsin or New Hampshire are going anywhere.  I would almost say that about PA too, but I''m on the fence.  Michigan and Minnesota are her biggest worries.  She'll win Florida before she wins Ohio.  Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach counties will turnout so heavily for her (even against Giuliani) that it would be enough to sustain under-performances along the I-4 corridor.  Though the growth *rate* in those 3 counties is lower than other parts of Florida, their growth is so large, and they are growing more in terms of raw numbers of people.  The Southern Gulf Coast will be beneficial to her as well it seems b/c (1) the housing boom is coming to a  close in that area and builders are stuck with homes they can't sell, (2) these Republican counties are still going to vote Republican in 2008 but there has been a trend towards Democrats (trends are ok to identify for smaller cases, as states--especially Florida--are really impossible to detect for electoral trends.)

i think her chances in Missouri are nil, unless we're looking at a three-person race.

Um... Wow...

[Jeff from NC]

she'd could carry:

Very Good Chance--Florida, Arkansas, Iowa, New Mexico
Reasonably Good--Colorado, West Virginia, Ohio, Nevada
Significant Possibility--North Carolina, Virginia



there was a poll pitting the top three dems. against the top four reps. in NC.  i don't put a lot
of stock into overall poll numbers (stratification, results for small subsamples, name recognition of Republican candidates, etc.), but one thing that is interesting is that each dem. gets at least 37% of the white vote with, usually, some 10% of whites undecided.  let's say that the poll overestimated white dem. support but undecideds break so that once they are factored in, white support for the Dem. re-approaches at least 37%.  Even though African-Americans turned out in disproportionately large numbers in NC in 2004 (26% electorate compared to 21% of the population), with proportional turnout for the races (21% African-American, 5% Hispanic/Asian-Am./Other, 74% non-Hispanic White), here's what we're looking at as the Dem.'s floor of support:

0.21*90 + 0.05*55 + 0.74*37 = 49.03 (that is what i believe to be HRC, and thus the Dems. floor of support in NC for 2008)--> my prediction for HRC in NC versus her strongest competitor is that she'd lose the state 49.2% to 50.3%

Respectfully, you are predicting that in North Carolina, Hillary Clinton will outperform every Democrat since Jimmy Carter by five or so points... but will not win Missouri?

[tarheel-leftist85]

she'd could carry:

Very Good Chance--Florida, Arkansas, Iowa, New Mexico
Reasonably Good--Colorado, West Virginia, Ohio, Nevada
Significant Possibility--North Carolina, Virginia



there was a poll pitting the top three dems. against the top four reps. in NC.  i don't put a lot
of stock into overall poll numbers (stratification, results for small subsamples, name recognition of Republican candidates, etc.), but one thing that is interesting is that each dem. gets at least 37% of the white vote with, usually, some 10% of whites undecided.  let's say that the poll overestimated white dem. support but undecideds break so that once they are factored in, white support for the Dem. re-approaches at least 37%.  Even though African-Americans turned out in disproportionately large numbers in NC in 2004 (26% electorate compared to 21% of the population), with proportional turnout for the races (21% African-American, 5% Hispanic/Asian-Am./Other, 74% non-Hispanic White), here's what we're looking at as the Dem.'s floor of support:

0.21*90 + 0.05*55 + 0.74*37 = 49.03 (that is what i believe to be HRC, and thus the Dems. floor of support in NC for 2008)--> my prediction for HRC in NC versus her strongest competitor is that she'd lose the state 49.2% to 50.3%

Respectfully, you are predicting that in North Carolina, Hillary Clinton will outperform every Democrat since Jimmy Carter by five or so points... but will not win Missouri?

Demographics and white voting patterns are pretty much why

Missouri's politics aren't as volatile as North Carolina's.  It appears as though Democratic candidates struggle to get beyond 43 or 44%.  I'm not saying that Clinton would come close, but she couldn't top the 49.7 or 49.8% mark she would need to win the state in a one person contest (which actually, maybe true for NC, but I think it's electoral behavior is much more volatile depending on turnout amongst different groups).  Here's what it looks like for MO
0.11*90 + 0.03*60 + 0.86*42 = 47.82%
but let's say she can get 44% of the white vote (which I don't think McCaskill was able to get, but she had an LP candidate taking away 3 or 4%):
0.11*90 + 0.03*60 + 0.86*44 = 49.58%
so HRC could make it very close, but I don't think she could reach over the 50% mark of the two-party vote threshold.

Good question, though.  It doesn't make a lot of sense saying that NC has a better chance than MO at first glance.  Maybe they'll release some GE match-ups from MO which crosstabs, so that I can glean some idea as to what we're looking at in terms of white voters supporting Democratic candidates.

[Jeff from NC]

Interesting.  For the record, 27% of whites in NC voted for Kerry compared with 71% for Bush (going by CNN exit polls).  But an increase to 37% is hardly out of the question, given the tough environment for Republicans.  It seems to me that a ten-point bump among whites in North Carolina would probably accompany a similar boost in Missouri, pushing HRC way over the edge in that state (and many others) too.

[??????????]

Hillarys chances in Florida range from 10-20% at best.

[Jake]

Hillarys chances in Florida range from 10-20% at best.

Not unless the national popular vote remains 51-48 as it was in 2004. Realistically, that's extremely unlikely. If Hillary wins a majority nationally, she'll take Florida 9 times out of 10.

[Sam Spade]

Hillarys chances in Florida range from 10-20% at best.

Not unless the national popular vote remains 51-48 as it was in 2004. Realistically, that's extremely unlikely. If Hillary wins a majority nationally, she'll take Florida 9 times out of 10.

It also depends on who the opponent is - Giuliani would be much stronger in Florida than pretty much any other Republican candidate, I suspect stronger than Bush.

[AkSaber]

I think Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa are her best shots.

[Jaggerjack]

I think Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa are her best shots.

Ohio also deserves a mention.

[AkSaber]

I think Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa are her best shots.

Ohio also deserves a mention.

Hmm. Yes it does. Maybe Colorado too.

[HardRCafé]

Gov. McBride will make his second term all about delivering Florida to Hillary.

[auburntiger]

I'd give her NM, IA, and OH as possible flips...but that will be the maximum she achieves