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| | | |-+  What if John Kerry was Al Gore's Running Mate in 2000?
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Author Topic: What if John Kerry was Al Gore's Running Mate in 2000?  (Read 4716 times)
pragmatic liberal
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« on: August 09, 2007, 11:22:39 pm »
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The three finalists for Al Gore's running mate were John Kerry, John Edwards, and Joe Lieberman. As we all know, Lieberman was selected.

What if Gore had selected John Kerry? Would things have worked out differently?

I think it's possible that Kerry might have flipped Gore the election. Mainly because...

(a) His presence may arguably have swung at least a handful of New Hampshire voters into voting for Gore; Gore only lost New Hampshire by a few thousand votes and winning NH would have won him the presidency without Florida.

(b) He would likely have done better against Cheney in the VP debate and his more progressive record would have swayed SOME (by no means all) Nader voters into sticking with the Democratic ticket (some of the more informed Green Party voters - and a lot of them were just tuned out wannabe hippies - cited Joe Lieberman as a key reason they voted for Nader).

On the other hand, Kerry would probably not have helped much in Florida, where Lieberman's presence might have helped (although getting retired liberal Jews from NY to vote for Gore can't have been that hard). Also, Kerry would almost certainly not have garnered the positive press the Lieberman selection did in August; the buzz the ticket had coming out of the convention was a huge boost to Gore and a Gore/Kerry ticket might not have had the same positive press coverage and the same momentum.

I can think of another likely outcome; had Gore and Kerry still lost, I think Kerry would have failed to be the '04 nominee. Let's assume that Kerry still votes for the IWR resolution as in real life, he still starts out as the frontrunner in '03 and let's assume Howard Dean's run occurs as in real life. When Iowa voters look for an alternative, they might turn instead to John Edwards, who was a fresher face. Kerry would have been more of a known commodity had he been the VP nominee in '00 and he may not have been able to pick up as much support from voters who didn't know him as well.

Although, on the other hand, if Kerry had more campaign experience from '00 and DID become the '04 nominee, maybe he would have campaigned better and emerged victorious.

Thoughts?
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« Reply #1 on: August 11, 2007, 10:07:42 pm »
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New Hampshire flips to Gore but Iowa flips to Bush. 

Iowa farmers and small town residents are upset with Kerry's military service record, and vote more strongly for Bush, giving Bush the state.

Bush wins Florida by a margin of approximately 100,000, so there is no question as to who wins Florida, and there is clearly no recount.  Without Lieberman on the Democratic ticket, this brings down Jewish turnout in Florida, hurting Gore's chances in that state.

Cheney is up to debating anyone in public life, including Kerry.  Cheney emphasizes his foreign policy expertise and contrasts it with Kerry's lack of experience in this field.

Not in the debate, but on the campaign trail, Bush does not make the reference, but it is left up to Cheney to make the reference to the "elitist northeastern liberal," and Cheney uses this to great effect.

Kerry may have helped with some of the Nader voters, however, by the same token, more independents and moderates decide to go with Bush, balancing out the Nader voters who went with Gore.

Bush/Cheney            274
Gore/Kerry                264



In 2004, John Edwards wins the Democratic nomination, picks Dick Gephardt for Vice President, and the two go on to be demolished in the election by George W Bush and Dick Cheney.
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Bo
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« Reply #2 on: May 14, 2010, 04:32:09 pm »
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Gore wins 296-242.
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« Reply #3 on: May 14, 2010, 04:45:15 pm »
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New Hampshire flips to Gore but Iowa flips to Bush. 

Iowa farmers and small town residents are upset with Kerry's military service record, and vote more strongly for Bush, giving Bush the state.

Bush wins Florida by a margin of approximately 100,000, so there is no question as to who wins Florida, and there is clearly no recount.  Without Lieberman on the Democratic ticket, this brings down Jewish turnout in Florida, hurting Gore's chances in that state.

Cheney is up to debating anyone in public life, including Kerry.  Cheney emphasizes his foreign policy expertise and contrasts it with Kerry's lack of experience in this field.

Not in the debate, but on the campaign trail, Bush does not make the reference, but it is left up to Cheney to make the reference to the "elitist northeastern liberal," and Cheney uses this to great effect.

Kerry may have helped with some of the Nader voters, however, by the same token, more independents and moderates decide to go with Bush, balancing out the Nader voters who went with Gore.

Bush/Cheney            274
Gore/Kerry                264



In 2004, John Edwards wins the Democratic nomination, picks Dick Gephardt for Vice President, and the two go on to be demolished in the election by George W Bush and Dick Cheney.

I think this map is the most accurate.
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« Reply #4 on: May 14, 2010, 07:45:09 pm »
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Kerry does better than Lieberman in the debate, and the home-state effect, combined, are enough to put N.H. in the Democratic column. Gore/Kerry wins 271-267. However, Kerry is not Jewish, so Bush wins by a much larger margin in Florida. The outcome is the opposite of RL: Bush wins the popular vote, Gore wins electoral.
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Derek
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« Reply #5 on: May 15, 2010, 09:06:51 pm »
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I can't post a map until I'm at work on Monday idk what's wrong with this one. Gore would've lost Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Minnesota. Those midwestern farmers liked Bush in 2000 but are more in the middle.
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2010, 02:26:11 pm »
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Kerry does better than Lieberman in the debate, and the home-state effect, combined, are enough to put N.H. in the Democratic column. Gore/Kerry wins 271-267. However, Kerry is not Jewish, so Bush wins by a much larger margin in Florida. The outcome is the opposite of RL: Bush wins the popular vote, Gore wins electoral.

Thus energizing the Republican base (and bringing many young and unintelligent voters to the GOP) leading to a close win in 2004 under the assumption that Gore cheated.

However, this would be a small consequence, as real life probably would've asserted itself anyways, with the GOP being blamed for the recession by the general public, leading to a Dem victory anyways in 08.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2010, 02:29:01 pm by ArchangelZero »Logged

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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2010, 03:01:55 pm »
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Kerry does better than Lieberman in the debate, and the home-state effect, combined, are enough to put N.H. in the Democratic column. Gore/Kerry wins 271-267. However, Kerry is not Jewish, so Bush wins by a much larger margin in Florida. The outcome is the opposite of RL: Bush wins the popular vote, Gore wins electoral.

Thus energizing the Republican base (and bringing many young and unintelligent voters to the GOP) leading to a close win in 2004 under the assumption that Gore cheated.

However, this would be a small consequence, as real life probably would've asserted itself anyways, with the GOP being blamed for the recession by the general public, leading to a Dem victory anyways in 08.

This would have probably been the best case scenario for the country. No Iraq War and smaller deficits (or no deficits at all) with the Republicans still receiveing the blame for the financial crisis and Great Recession.
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Derek
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2010, 03:04:23 pm »
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Then Kerry would've gone AWOL in the senate in 2000 like he did in 2004 by missing important meetings and votes.
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2010, 03:05:11 pm »
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Then Kerry would've gone AWOL in the senate in 2000 like he did in 2004 by missing important meetings and votes.

So? Who cares? He's running for a national office. It's almost inevitable that he will miss some minor votes in the Senate.
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Derek
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« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2010, 03:13:30 pm »
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and major. I don't see Kerry and Gore agreeing on much of anything either.
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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2010, 03:15:11 pm »
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and major. I don't see Kerry and Gore agreeing on much of anything either.

Gore and Kerry would have agreed that tax cuts for the rich are bad. They would ahve also agreed that it is necessary to protect the environemnt, support international opinion, and promote affirmative action.
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2010, 11:48:22 pm »
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Kerry does better than Lieberman in the debate, and the home-state effect, combined, are enough to put N.H. in the Democratic column. Gore/Kerry wins 271-267. However, Kerry is not Jewish, so Bush wins by a much larger margin in Florida. The outcome is the opposite of RL: Bush wins the popular vote, Gore wins electoral.

Thus energizing the Republican base (and bringing many young and unintelligent voters to the GOP) leading to a close win in 2004 under the assumption that Gore cheated.

However, this would be a small consequence, as real life probably would've asserted itself anyways, with the GOP being blamed for the recession by the general public, leading to a Dem victory anyways in 08.

This would have probably been the best case scenario for the country. No Iraq War and smaller deficits (or no deficits at all) with the Republicans still receiveing the blame for the financial crisis and Great Recession.

The only problem that I see with this is September 11.  While Gore was in favour of preemptive strikes against Afghanistan (which may of killed off Bin Laden and put the plan on hold indefinitely) we don't know that 9/11 would've still happened (and if it did happen, would Gore attack Afghanistan and stay there this long, and would he have attacked Iraq if there really were reports from the CIA about WMDs?
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Derek
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« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2010, 11:59:17 pm »
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and major. I don't see Kerry and Gore agreeing on much of anything either.

Gore and Kerry would have agreed that tax cuts for the rich are bad. They would ahve also agreed that it is necessary to protect the environemnt, support international opinion, and promote affirmative action.

Yes but what should the tax rates be? What should the environmental regulations be? Nothing is scarier than international opinion. And not every democrat is the the same. I hate to burst your happy little bubble, but Kerry is a New England elitist who thinks he's better than everyone else. You don't remember this story in 2003, but he actually asked a waitress "Don't you know who I am?" when they said they just had the last codfish ordered. Al Gore is a southerner and has somewhat conservative roots even though he's moved to the left in the past 10 years. Gore ran a centrist campaign in 2000 while Kerry only tried to appear moderate in 2004.
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« Reply #14 on: May 23, 2010, 12:33:58 am »
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Kerry does better than Lieberman in the debate, and the home-state effect, combined, are enough to put N.H. in the Democratic column. Gore/Kerry wins 271-267. However, Kerry is not Jewish, so Bush wins by a much larger margin in Florida. The outcome is the opposite of RL: Bush wins the popular vote, Gore wins electoral.

Thus energizing the Republican base (and bringing many young and unintelligent voters to the GOP) leading to a close win in 2004 under the assumption that Gore cheated.

However, this would be a small consequence, as real life probably would've asserted itself anyways, with the GOP being blamed for the recession by the general public, leading to a Dem victory anyways in 08.

This would have probably been the best case scenario for the country. No Iraq War and smaller deficits (or no deficits at all) with the Republicans still receiveing the blame for the financial crisis and Great Recession.

The only problem that I see with this is September 11.  While Gore was in favour of preemptive strikes against Afghanistan (which may of killed off Bin Laden and put the plan on hold indefinitely) we don't know that 9/11 would've still happened (and if it did happen, would Gore attack Afghanistan and stay there this long, and would he have attacked Iraq if there really were reports from the CIA about WMDs?

With or without 9/11, I seriously doubt Gore would have invaded Iraq. He was against it in 2002 in RL and from what I've read the CIA and FBI evidence was very vague as to whether there were actually WMDs in Iraq. Bush Jr. just decided to manipulate the information and only show that which favored the case that there were WMDs in Iraq. Also, I don't think Gore would have implemented tax cuts for the rich or Medicare Part D, which, together with the lack of a war in Iraq, would have made the deficit and debt smaller (with or without 9/11). Thus, what I wrote was completely accurate, assuming Gore would ahve lost his relection bid (and I think he would have, with or without 9/11).
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« Reply #15 on: May 23, 2010, 08:50:06 pm »
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Kerry does better than Lieberman in the debate, and the home-state effect, combined, are enough to put N.H. in the Democratic column. Gore/Kerry wins 271-267. However, Kerry is not Jewish, so Bush wins by a much larger margin in Florida. The outcome is the opposite of RL: Bush wins the popular vote, Gore wins electoral.

Thus energizing the Republican base (and bringing many young and unintelligent voters to the GOP) leading to a close win in 2004 under the assumption that Gore cheated.

However, this would be a small consequence, as real life probably would've asserted itself anyways, with the GOP being blamed for the recession by the general public, leading to a Dem victory anyways in 08.

This would have probably been the best case scenario for the country. No Iraq War and smaller deficits (or no deficits at all) with the Republicans still receiveing the blame for the financial crisis and Great Recession.

The only problem that I see with this is September 11.  While Gore was in favour of preemptive strikes against Afghanistan (which may of killed off Bin Laden and put the plan on hold indefinitely) we don't know that 9/11 would've still happened (and if it did happen, would Gore attack Afghanistan and stay there this long, and would he have attacked Iraq if there really were reports from the CIA about WMDs?

With or without 9/11, I seriously doubt Gore would have invaded Iraq. He was against it in 2002 in RL and from what I've read the CIA and FBI evidence was very vague as to whether there were actually WMDs in Iraq. Bush Jr. just decided to manipulate the information and only show that which favored the case that there were WMDs in Iraq. Also, I don't think Gore would have implemented tax cuts for the rich or Medicare Part D, which, together with the lack of a war in Iraq, would have made the deficit and debt smaller (with or without 9/11). Thus, what I wrote was completely accurate, assuming Gore would ahve lost his relection bid (and I think he would have, with or without 9/11).

Kerry was for the war in Iraq and even voted to give Bush the authority to act on it. He flipflopped on the issue when the public became impatient as he was politically calculating election chances. Medicare part D was good for seniors. My grandparents very much enjoy it.
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« Reply #16 on: June 08, 2010, 04:52:03 pm »
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NH flips and Gore wins.

Margins increase in MI (less Muslim antisemitism).
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« Reply #17 on: June 08, 2010, 09:22:03 pm »
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Gore would win.

I gotta wonder why he didn't pick Jeanne Shaheen though...
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« Reply #18 on: June 08, 2010, 10:14:46 pm »
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Gore would win.

I gotta wonder why he didn't pick Jeanne Shaheen though...

I think she asked not to be picked, plus he might have been worried about her inexperience. Even though I agree that picking Shaheen would have been a good move strategically. It would have energized the female vote in favor of Gore, delivered NH for Gore, and possibly ewnergized the Democratic base. Also, if Shaheen would have had a good performance in her VP debate with Cheney, I think that all questions about her inexperience would have been off the table and answered. Lieberman added nothing to Gore's campaign that Gore didn't already have. It was a huge waste picking him, and a mistake that gave us 8 years of a horrendous President.
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« Reply #19 on: June 08, 2010, 10:31:00 pm »
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Then we would've had to listen to his crazy flashbacks in 2000 as we were forced to hear in 2004.
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« Reply #20 on: June 08, 2010, 10:37:40 pm »
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Then we would've had to listen to his crazy flashbacks in 2000 as we were forced to hear in 2004.

Yeah, but people in 2000 would have respected his flaskbacks and admired him as a war hero, in contrast to 2004, when the GOP swiftboated him.
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« Reply #21 on: June 08, 2010, 11:21:12 pm »
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Then we would've had to listen to his crazy flashbacks in 2000 as we were forced to hear in 2004.

Yeah, but people in 2000 would have respected his flaskbacks and admired him as a war hero, in contrast to 2004, when the GOP swiftboated him.

Stop the spin. He flew Jane Fonda around in Vietnam and I'm not sure if that's known to the public or not but I would've paid personally for an ad that had real footage of these 2 doing such a thing. He met with the enemy without permission from us in a time of war which is TREASON. As a reward he earned himself a spot in the North Vietnamese War Museum dedicated to the northern victory in the 70's. After analyzing his behavior, Kerry was at best traumatized and unfit for command.
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« Reply #22 on: June 08, 2010, 11:26:12 pm »
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Then we would've had to listen to his crazy flashbacks in 2000 as we were forced to hear in 2004.

Yeah, but people in 2000 would have respected his flaskbacks and admired him as a war hero, in contrast to 2004, when the GOP swiftboated him.

Stop the spin. He flew Jane Fonda around in Vietnam and I'm not sure if that's known to the public or not but I would've paid personally for an ad that had real footage of these 2 doing such a thing. He met with the enemy without permission from us in a time of war which is TREASON. As a reward he earned himself a spot in the North Vietnamese War Museum dedicated to the northern victory in the 70's. After analyzing his behavior, Kerry was at best traumatized and unfit for command.

That's all a bunch of crap and lies. That Jane Fonda picture was fabricated. And you wonder why many people here don't like you.
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Derek
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« Reply #23 on: June 08, 2010, 11:44:16 pm »
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Then we would've had to listen to his crazy flashbacks in 2000 as we were forced to hear in 2004.

Yeah, but people in 2000 would have respected his flaskbacks and admired him as a war hero, in contrast to 2004, when the GOP swiftboated him.

Stop the spin. He flew Jane Fonda around in Vietnam and I'm not sure if that's known to the public or not but I would've paid personally for an ad that had real footage of these 2 doing such a thing. He met with the enemy without permission from us in a time of war which is TREASON. As a reward he earned himself a spot in the North Vietnamese War Museum dedicated to the northern victory in the 70's. After analyzing his behavior, Kerry was at best traumatized and unfit for command.

That's all a bunch of crap and lies. That Jane Fonda picture was fabricated. And you wonder why many people here don't like you.

I'm not saying anything about the photo. I'm saying what happened. People here don't like me because I'm a Republican. As a Republican that's something that I'll always have to deal with but it makes me a stronger person.
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« Reply #24 on: June 08, 2010, 11:52:09 pm »
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Do you have proof for that claim, Derek?  It must be said that your other assertions in the past have been... well... baloney.
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