New Hampshire Senate 2008: Shaheen Leaning Towards Run

[Adlai Stevenson]

Former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) and her husband "are telling supporters that she there is about a 70 percent chance that she will run for Senate against Sen. John Sununu (R)," according to the Evans-Novak Political Report. "There is no need for her to move too quickly, since the state is currently consumed with presidential politics, and she already has universal name recognition there."

"However, her delay appears to be affecting the primary that will be run if she does not get into the race. Katrina Swett, wife of former Rep. Dick Swett (D), is running away with the fundraising race against Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand (D). Marchand’s problem is that the Democratic political crowd in his Seacoast base is extremely gun-shy and wants to keep the powder dry until they know what Shaheen does first. Shaheen, who narrowly lost to Sununu in 2002, is by far the best candidate the Democrats could put up against him in 2008. She trounces Sununu in early polls, whereas he narrowly leads the other two potential candidates."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/08/01/shaheen_leaning_towards_run.html

[Jaggerjack]

She'd better decide to run. And I hope the New Hampshire Democrats see how good of a challenger she is (though, they probably already do).

[Adlai Stevenson]

Reid Wilson writes that Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) has three major obstacles to overcome if he is to hold on to his seat: 1) a Republican in ever-darkening-to- blue New Hampshire; 2) uber-popular NH Gov. John Lynch remains strong with a 76% approval rating and will be on the same ballot as Sununu, and will presumably help drive out the vote for whoever the Dems choose to run against the first-term Senator; and 3) former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, whom Sununu narrowly beat in 2002, is already the frontrunner in polls before she has even announced if she is a candidate.

Also, New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala notes that enrollment in the state Democratic party has skyrocketed in recent years and the state GOP lags behind. Five years ago, the GOP boasted a lead of 77,000 people over the Dems. Today, it is half that.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/08/06/sununu_republicans_in_trouble_in_new_hampshire.html

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also, New Hampshire political scientist Dante Scala notes that enrollment in the state Democratic party has skyrocketed in recent years and the state GOP lags behind. Five years ago, the GOP boasted a lead of 77,000 people over the Dems. Today, it is half that.

That's a little misleading.  Indeed, the number of Democratic voters has increased by over 50K since 2001, but the number of GOP voters has also increased (though by little more than 20K).

The real "skyrocket," though, is the number of Independents in the state.  In 2001, there were 232,805 registered.  On November 7, 2006, it was up to 369,630.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Any chance Sweet could beat her in the primary?

[WalterMitty]

shaheen was the favorite to win in 2002 also.

[Jaggerjack]

shaheen was the favorite to win in 2002 also.

Did she ever have a 28 point lead over Sununu? Don't forget that was a pretty dirty race too.

[Mr.Phips]

shaheen was the favorite to win in 2002 also.

She was 22 points behind Sununu until October of 2002.

[Keystone Phil]

shaheen was the favorite to win in 2002 also.

Walter, this is totally different. Remember...that was when people liked Republicans.

[Verily]

Any chance Sweet could beat her in the primary?

LOL. Swett trailed Marchand by about 20 points in the one poll of the primary; she'd get absolutely clobbered in the primary by Shaheen.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Any chance Sweet could beat her in the primary?

LOL. Swett trailed Marchand by about 20 points in the one poll of the primary; she'd get absolutely clobbered in the primary by Shaheen.

Then could Marchand win the primary?

[TheresNoMoney]

If Shaheen decides to run, Marchand and Swett will withdraw from the race.

If Shaheen doesn't run, then Marchand will win the primary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

shaheen was the favorite to win in 2002 also.

Dude, haven't you learned from your Santorum and Blackwell debacles?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Some New Hampshire Democrats are upset over a DSCC e-mail "that touts the possible Senate candidacy of Jeanne Shaheen without mentioning any of the three Democrats" currently in the race, according to the Concord Monitor. The former governor and current director of Harvard's Institute of Politics has yet to decide if she will run.

The e-mail even steers its readers to a Draft Shaheen website founded by former Democratic Party Chairwoman Kathy Sullivan.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/08/15/dscc_touts_possible_shaheen_candidacy.html

[Verily]

Three? Marchand, Swett and...

In any case, I'm pretty sure Marchand said he'd drop out if Shaheen got in, and Swett's already a joke.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And, inexplicably, GOP-to-win-NH jumps up to 65% on Tradesports.

[Dan the Roman]

My Aunt was on the state board of education under Shaheen and Benson, and when I spoke to her last June about Shaheen she seemed almost certain Shaheen would not run. Now it is possible she has changed her mind from the combination of favorable polls, phone calls from Chuck Schumer, and a draft Shaheen effort. More likely she and her husband are utterly enjoying the attention, and don't want it to end. I personally think she is split, but she needs to make up her mind soon. Katrina Swett is going to be hard pressed to drop out with a 1.8 million dollar warchest.

In her abscencne, Marchand might be able to win a general if he could raise some money, but Swett is a terrible candidate. She lost 57-41 to Bass in 2002 despite outspending him 3-1.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

To be fair though, 2002 was to New Hampshire Republicans what 2006 was to New Hampshire Democrats.

(edit: And Swett outspent Bass, but only by $1.46M–$0.89M.)

[Dan the Roman]

Double-checked and your right on the numbers. Does show how far NH has come in four years.

[© tweed]

And, inexplicably, GOP-to-win-NH jumps up to 65% on Tradesports.

that's so dumb.  make a fortune off of that sh**t.  even if Shaheen doesn't run I can't see how Sununu's chances are even as good as 50-50.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Everytime it moves higher, I sell a little bit more of it.  Let's see if I can't sell some more at 67.5!

[Verily]

My Aunt was on the state board of education under Shaheen and Benson, and when I spoke to her last June about Shaheen she seemed almost certain Shaheen would not run. Now it is possible she has changed her mind from the combination of favorable polls, phone calls from Chuck Schumer, and a draft Shaheen effort. More likely she and her husband are utterly enjoying the attention, and don't want it to end. I personally think she is split, but she needs to make up her mind soon. Katrina Swett is going to be hard pressed to drop out with a 1.8 million dollar warchest.

In her abscencne, Marchand might be able to win a general if he could raise some money, but Swett is a terrible candidate. She lost 57-41 to Bass in 2002 despite outspending him 3-1.

The one and only poll we've seen put Marchand ahead of Swett around 40-15 so I don't think Democrats need to be afraid of Katrina Swett blowing their chances.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Professor and former astronaut Jay Buckley is the third Democratic candidate.