PA 11 - Barletta may challenge Kanjorski again.

[Keystone Phil]

Barletta comeback? - http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07224/808851-178.stm

This could end up being a good race. Barletta got 42% in 2002 (I don't think any other challenger has ever gotten that close against Kanjorski). Barletta is known nationally for his fight against illegal immigration. He's very popular in the area so he could give Kanjorski a run. Add into the mix the fact that the incumbent has come under fire lately on a number of issues and we could see an upset. Kanjorski is still the favorite as of now, though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Main reason for Barletta doing fairly well in 2002 was the fact that Kanjorski was (at the time) under federal investigation for one or two things far more serious than some rather ill-judged remarks about the Minneapolis bridge collapse.

[Keystone Phil]

Main reason for Barletta doing fairly well in 2002 was the fact that Kanjorski was (at the time) under federal investigation for one or two things far more serious than some rather ill-judged remarks about the Minneapolis bridge collapse.

Kanjorski has had other problems recently, too, stemming from an inverstigation, I believe.

[Mr.Phips]

Give me a break.  If Barletta could not even get close to Kanjorski in 2002, a great Republican year, he sure wont be able to in 2008.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Give me a break.  If Barletta could not even get close to Kanjorski in 2002, a great Republican year, he sure wont be able to in 2008.

I'm not saying anything about his chances, but Barletta seems like a far stronger candidate now that he's nationally known than he was back in 2002.

[Keystone Phil]

Give me a break.  If Barletta could not even get close to Kanjorski in 2002, a great Republican year, he sure wont be able to in 2008.

I'm not saying anything about his chances, but Barletta seems like a far stronger candidate now that he's nationally known than he was back in 2002.

Exactly. He's much more popular these days. Of course Phips won't admit the strengths of such a candidate because he has quite a bias towards Dems.

For the record, I never said Barletta would win.

[Jake]

Barletta's ceiling is probably what he got in 2002. His name recognition is at an all-time high, but anyone who would be turned on by his illegal immigration code (which was defeated in court) was already voting for him in 2002. The district is 60% Democratic in an average year; winnable only if Kanjorski has a Sherwood-like scandal break.

Now if Kanjorski steps down it's a different story. Barletta would have a slight chance of turning the district depending on the quality of the Democrat.

[Keystone Phil]

Barletta's ceiling is probably what he got in 2002. His name recognition is at an all-time high, but anyone who would be turned on by his illegal immigration code (which was defeated in court) was already voting for him in 2002. The district is 60% Democratic in an average year; winnable only if Kanjorski has a Sherwood-like scandal break.

The fact that Kanjorski has made some stupid statements recently on a number of issues and corruption scandals doesn't help the incumbent...

I'm guessing that, at this point, Barletta would get around 45% of the vote. This one could end up being a very interesting race.

[Adlai Stevenson]

PA-11 voted 53%-47% for Kerry after giving Al Gore a 54%-43% win in 2000.  I suppose the Democratic nominee should win by about 55%-45% in 2008? 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PA-11 voted 53%-47% for Kerry after giving Al Gore a 54%-43% win in 2000.  I suppose the Democratic nominee should win by about 55%-45% in 2008? 

Depends on the nominees.  Pennsylvania has this awful breed of moderate Democrats where they're socially conservative but fiscally liberal—to me, the worst of both worlds.

[Sam Spade]

PA-11 voted 53%-47% for Kerry after giving Al Gore a 54%-43% win in 2000.  I suppose the Democratic nominee should win by about 55%-45% in 2008? 

Depends on the nominees.  Pennsylvania has this awful breed of moderate Democrats where they're socially conservative but fiscally liberal—to me, the worst of both worlds.

I can take it that you're not a Murtha fan.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PA-11 voted 53%-47% for Kerry after giving Al Gore a 54%-43% win in 2000.  I suppose the Democratic nominee should win by about 55%-45% in 2008? 

Depends on the nominees.  Pennsylvania has this awful breed of moderate Democrats where they're socially conservative but fiscally liberal—to me, the worst of both worlds.

I can take it that you're not a Murtha fan.

Living in Pennsylvania was a political nightmare for me.  Thank God for the suburban Philadelphia politicians.

[Keystone Phil]

Thank God for the suburban Philadelphia politicians.

Some of them are horrible (though I guess you'd appreciate them politically speaking).

[Conan]

Barletta is a great candidate. I don't know his positions on all the issues but on Lou Dobbs he comes across well. I don't know how long his term lasts as mayor but if he were to run, 2010 would probably be better.

[TeePee4Prez]

PA-11 voted 53%-47% for Kerry after giving Al Gore a 54%-43% win in 2000.  I suppose the Democratic nominee should win by about 55%-45% in 2008? 

Depends on the nominees.  Pennsylvania has this awful breed of moderate Democrats where they're socially conservative but fiscally liberal—to me, the worst of both worlds.

PA 11 would be awful for you as well.  It seems though the eastern Poconos are turning more liberal and Dem due to the NYC influx.  It also seems the western Poconos (Hazleton, Scranton, Wilkes Barre) are getting the brunt of these immigrants and are fairly populist areas to begin with.  I have family in PA 11 and my sister just graduated from Scranton.  From that I have to admit Barletta has a shot and immigration is very unpopular amongst whites there.  I still predict a Kanjorski win, but the Dems can keep this one off radar. 

[Mr.Phips]

You must remember that this district was packed with Democratic voters by the Republican legislature in order to make PA-10 safe for Sherwood, who barely won in 1998 and 2000.  The district now includes heavily Democratic Scranton and Wilkes-Barre all in the same district, making it nearly impossible for a Republican to crack 45% absent a huge scandal on the part of the incumbent.

[Keystone Phil]

From that I have to admit Barletta has a shot and immigration is very unpopular amongst whites there.

You mean he's popular there.

 

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You expect him to win but shouldn't the Dems keep it on their radar just in case?

[TeePee4Prez]

From that I have to admit Barletta has a shot and immigration is very unpopular amongst whites there.

You mean he's popular there.

 

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You expect him to win but shouldn't the Dems keep it on their radar just in case?

Absolutely.  Then again I got spooked by Raj and look what happened.  It could also be hot air.

[Keystone Phil]

From that I have to admit Barletta has a shot and immigration is very unpopular amongst whites there.

You mean he's popular there.

 

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You expect him to win but shouldn't the Dems keep it on their radar just in case?

Absolutely.  Then again I got spooked by Raj and look what happened.  It could also be hot air.

Barletta is obviously more serious and more popular than Raj...

[Governor PiT]

Barletta is better off running for Senate against Phil Spector in 2010.

[Reaganfan]

Barletta is better off running for Senate against Phil Spector in 2010.

Ugh...Phil Spector. A pioneer of the world of music...had to get involved in murder. Pity. Songs from "You've Lost That Lovin' Feeling" to "Then He Kissed Me" to "Be My Baby" to "Christmas (Baby Please Some Home)" would not exist had it not been for this man. Hell, since one of my favorite songs, "Take Me Home Tonight" is a spin-off in a way of "Be My Baby"...it's safe to assume he is responsible for that song as well...

Sad thing.

[HardRCafé]

It's not as if he were an especially good husband to Ronnie Spector, either.

[Reaganfan]

It's not as if he were an especially good husband to Ronnie Spector, either.

Just like Ronnie sang...

[Governor PiT]

Barletta is better off running for Senate against Phil Spector in 2010.

Ugh...Phil Spector. A pioneer of the world of music...had to get involved in murder. Pity. Songs from "You've Lost That Lovin' Feeling" to "Then He Kissed Me" to "Be My Baby" to "Christmas (Baby Please Some Home)" would not exist had it not been for this man. Hell, since one of my favorite songs, "Take Me Home Tonight" is a spin-off in a way of "Be My Baby"...it's safe to assume he is responsible for that song as well...

Sad thing.

I thought that was Eddy Money?

[bergie72]

This area is too Democratic for Lou Barletta to stand a decent chance of winning, short of a Sherwood-style scandal occuring after the primary. 

Even with current campaign by the RCC (I think) against Kanjorski sending money to a business run by his relatives, I see this as making a minor dip in his popularity, and won't be enough to carry thru to Nov 08.