What states could Bloomberg win?

[pragmatic liberal]

If Mike Bloomberg runs as an independent, what states could he win?

For example, I think there's a very decent chance that THIS will be the contest in November:

Hillary Clinton (D) v. Mitt Romney (R) v. Mike Bloomberg (I)

If Bloomberg gets less than 20%, he's not likely to take any state (his support isn't anywhere near geographically concentrated enough to ensure electoral votes).

If Bloomberg gets something like 25-30%, he may well take a state or two and get a plurality in at least a few places. But where?

Maybe Maine, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. Possibly Alaska, but will they really take to a strongly environmentalist NYC liberal? I just don't see Bloomberg picking up many states unless he somehow wins a national plurality - and even then he'll probably fall short in the EC.

[© tweed]

none

[MasterJedi]

none

[Jaggerjack]

none

[agcatter]

zilch

[Joe Republic]

Try not to forget that Bloomberg hinted that he'd be prepared to invest $1 billion of his own money.  That's twice as much as the combined total that Bush and Kerry spent.

I know the more high-minded politicos would like to think that money shouldn't matter in politics, but they'd be kidding themselves of course.

[bullmoose88]

What *could* he win?

Maine, Vermont, New Jersey, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington, Oregon...maybe Wisconsin

Probably?

Zilch

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

none

[Sensei]

none

but Maine would be the most possible. Bloomberg seems like a good fit for Maine.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

none

but Maine would be the most possible. Bloomberg seems like a good fit for Maine.

Maine could be the only possible state Michael Bloomberg could win, if he ran for President in 2008. Afterall, Maine has elected 2 independent Governors and almost gave it's Electoral votes for Perot in '92.

[wdecker1]

In reality, none.  However, I think he has an outside chance to win Maine and Oregon.  Maine b/c Perot did very well there in 1992, and Oregon b/c they are very concerned about the environment and seem very independent minded

[Know Your Rights!]

I like Bullmoose's list, but it all depends on who he draws from.

[gorkay]

If he runs, I don't think he'd win any states, but a more interesting question is which states he might tilt to one of the other candidates. If it's a close race, he could influence the outcome; if not, he could magnify the extent of the electoral landslide for the winning candidate, as Perot did in '92 and Anderson in '80.

His chances of gaining significant support would probably increase if the GOP nominates a conservative, such as Thompson. Moderate Republicans and independents might find him attractive then, especially if the Dems nominate someone controversial, such as Clinton or Obama. If the GOP nominates a more moderate candidate, he might not get many votes, especially if the Democrats smell victory.

[Lincoln Republican]

Theoretically, Bloomberg in pink

Realistically, I have to agree, no states would be won by Bloomberg, regardless of how much money he spends on the campaign.

The electoral system simply does not lend itself to independent candidates.

The one major exception was, of course, 1912.  But, in 1912, some very unique circumstances existed, that is, a popular, former President was the nominee of a rising political movement in America, the incumbent President was running, and was not well liked by much of his own party.

Anything even similar to these circumstances will not exist in 2008.  Bloomberg at best could have an effect on which of the two major candidates wins in certain states, but Bloomberg would not win any states.

[Bacon King]

Under the right set of circumstances, he could possibly win a plurality of EV's. Realistically, however, I'd say I agree with bullmoose's list.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I see no reason Bloomberg would have a chance at Wisconsin or Iowa.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Bloomberg is a phenomenal fit for Connecticut: the state loves voting for conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans (look at the last 30 years of Gubernatorial and Senate returns, excepting Dodd), and it's voted twice for Independents statewide in the last 20 years.  And, of course, Connecticut is right there in the New York media market.

[AndrewTX]

Bloomberg doesn't win the internet, but does win all of the electoral votes!

[AkSaber]

none

[Kaine for Senate '18]

He could win all of New England, but the best he can really do is maybe Vermont and Maine.  If he runs with Hagel, add Nebraska.  If he runs with Lieberman, add Connecticut.

[opebo]

He could win all of New England, but the best he can really do is maybe Vermont and Maine.  If he runs with Hagel, add Nebraska.  If he runs with Lieberman, add Connecticut.

OK, I don't think he could win any, but at least Maine is reasonably possible.  Vermont is not, nor Nebraska.

[Hash]

none

[Angel of Death]

Zero, it's called Duverger's law.