LA: Jindal (R) strongly favored to win in the first round of voting

[Tender Branson]

A new statewide poll in the Louisiana governor's race shows Republican candidate Bobby Jindal with a strong lead over his competitors, including one question that listed New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin in the lineup of candidates.

In a telephone poll conducted Aug. 3-6, Southern Media & Opinion Research Inc. of Baton Rouge asked 600 likely voters who among the major candidates they would vote for if the election "were held today."

Jindal, a congressman representing the 1st District, led with 63 percent, followed by state Sen. Walter Boasso, D-Arabi, with 14.3 percent, Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell with 4.4 percent and Republican Metaire businessman John Georges with 1.3 percent.

In the poll that included Nagin, Jindal had 60.3 percent followed by Nagin with 10.5 percent, Boasso with 10 percent, Campbell with 3.3 percent and Georges with 1.5 percent. Nagin, a Democrat serving his second term as mayor, has not announced his intentions for the future.

The survey has a margin or error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://blog.nola.com/times-picayune/2007/08/jindal_leads_comfortably_in_la.html

[Tender Branson]

I think the 3 governors races this year are set in stone now with:

- Jindal comfortably winning in the first round -> GOP PICKUP
- Beshear winning by about 10% in KY -> DEM PICKUP
- Barbour also winning by about 10% in MS

[Tender Branson]

Breakdown by region:

New Orleans metro area: Boasso 12 percent, Campbell 2.6 percent, Georges 0 percent, Jindal 70.8 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 14.6 percent.

Florida/River Parishes: Boasso 22 percent, Campbell 2.9 percent, Georges 1.5 percent, Jindal 54 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 19.5 percent.

Acadiana/Southwest Louisiana: Boasso 7 percent, Campbell 1.6 percent, Georges 2.7 percent, Jindal 68.5 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 20.3 percent.

North Louisiana: Boasso 17.5 percent, Campbell 9.5 percent, Georges 1.1 percent, Jindal 57.9 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 14.2 percent.

Breakdown by political party:

Democrat: Boasso 21.5 percent, Campbell 7.2 percent, Georges 1.3 percent, Jindal 47.7 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 22.2 percent.

Republican: Boasso 2.3 percent, Campbell 0 percent, Georges 1.5 percent, Jindal 89.3 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 6.9 percent.

Other: Boasso 12.9 percent, Campbell 3 percent, Georges 0 percent, Jindal 70 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 14.1 percent.

Breakdown by race and gender:

White Male: Boasso 10.3 percent, Campbell 2.5 percent, Georges 1.5 percent, Jindal 74 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 11.8 percent.

White Female: Boasso 6.3 percent, Campbell 3.7 percent, Georges 2.2 percent, Jindal 76 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 11.8 percent.

Black Male: Boasso 36.1 percent, Campbell 8.3 percent, Georges 0 percent, Jindal 44.4 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 11.1 percent.

Black Female: Boasso 27.9 percent, Campbell 7.4 percent, Georges 0 percent, Jindal 20.6 percent, undecided/don't know/won't say 44.1 percent.

http://www.katc.com/Global/story.asp?S=6926344

[Conan]

This poll is unrealistic. I want to see a poll from a reputable company.

[DownWithTheLeft]

This poll is unrealistic. I want to see a poll from a reputable company.

Do you honestly think Jindal will lose to Boasso or Nagin in LA?

[Former Moderate]

This poll is unrealistic. I want to see a poll from a reputable company.

Yeah, uh, I don't know what's unrealistic about this poll, or why Southern Media and Research is somehow disreputable other than the fact that it's telling you something you clearly don't want to hear.

Southern Media and Research isn't just some fly-by-night, you know.

[Tender Branson]

This poll is unrealistic. I want to see a poll from a reputable company.

Yeah, uh, I don't know what's unrealistic about this poll, or why Southern Media and Research is somehow disreputable other than the fact that it's telling you something you clearly don't want to hear.

Southern Media and Research isn't just some fly-by-night, you know.

I agree. If someone´s leading by 40% 3 months ahead of an election it doesn´t matter if the poll was taken by Mason-Dixon or a no-name group. Or do you think this poll has a 20% margin of error ?

Even if all leading Republicans in LA incl. Jindal turn out to be f*****g prostitutes, a Democrat won´t win the LA governorship with 3 months to go

[MasterJedi]

All polls have showed Jindal with a massive lead. The only question now is whether he'll win it without a runoff.

[Bacon King]

It's pretty crazy that MS may actually be the closest of the three states.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

If I recall (it's hard because it's a generic name) Southern Media and Research isn't actually a bad pollster, especially in Louisiana.  I may be misremembering.

[jokerman]

We need a fiery ole politican like Nagin to force Jindal to at least work for his victory.  I hope Nagin gets in the race.

[Former Moderate]

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/PollingFirmDetail.html?PollingFirmID=191

It appears as is Southern Media & Opinion, averaged over its last 32 polls of finished races, has a net GOP lean of about a point.

[Keystone Phil]

We need a fiery ole politican like Nagin to force Jindal to at least work for his victory.

If you want an even bigger victory for Jindal then supporting Nagin makes plenty of sense.

[DanielX]

This poll is unrealistic. I want to see a poll from a reputable company.

Yeah, uh, I don't know what's unrealistic about this poll, or why Southern Media and Research is somehow disreputable other than the fact that it's telling you something you clearly don't want to hear.

Southern Media and Research isn't just some fly-by-night, you know.

I agree. If someone´s leading by 40% 3 months ahead of an election it doesn´t matter if the poll was taken by Mason-Dixon or a no-name group. Or do you think this poll has a 20% margin of error ?

Even if all leading Republicans in LA incl. Jindal turn out to be f*****g prostitutes, a Democrat won´t win the LA governorship with 3 months to go

Actually, they might gain a few votes if that happened... Louisiana voters tend to like their politicians a little on the disreputable side... it would have to be a dead girl or a live boy for him to actually lose the race...

[Conan]

This poll is unrealistic. I want to see a poll from a reputable company.

Yeah, uh, I don't know what's unrealistic about this poll, or why Southern Media and Research is somehow disreputable other than the fact that it's telling you something you clearly don't want to hear.

Southern Media and Research isn't just some fly-by-night, you know.

Nice little cute comments. You don't even know what I want to hear. I could care less who runs Louisiana. Southern Media Research is a second or third rate polling firm. All I would like to see is a poll from SUSA, Rasmussen, or MD. So before you run your mouth, get the full story.

[Former Moderate]

i'm not qualified to be a reporter in louisana either

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Nice little cute comments. You don't even know what I want to hear. Southern Media Research is a second or third rate polling firm. All I would like to see is a poll from SUSA, Rasmussen, or MD. So before you run your mouth, get the full story.

Just because you have not heard of them does not make them third-rate.

I could care less who runs Louisiana.

Touching!  Why, Conan, do you hate a black?

[MasterJedi]

We need a fiery ole politican like Nagin to force Jindal to at least work for his victory.

If you want an even bigger victory for Jindal then supporting Nagin makes plenty of sense.

I believe that Nagin endorsed Jindal the last time he ran so I really don't see him running.

[Conan]

Nice little cute comments. You don't even know what I want to hear. Southern Media Research is a second or third rate polling firm. All I would like to see is a poll from SUSA, Rasmussen, or MD. So before you run your mouth, get the full story.

Just because you have not heard of them does not make them third-rate.

I could care less who runs Louisiana.

Touching!  Why, Conan, do you hate a black?

I have heard of them. They aren't on par with those other polling firms and that's a fact. On the governors race, I don't care who runs any state. The only things I care about are if it's possible that they can win a future senate race and if they can do good for branding for the party.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I have heard of them. They aren't on par with those other polling firms and that's a fact.

Can you demonstrate that?  Do you have any source for that claim?  Or is this one of those Colbertian "feeling facts"?

On the governors race, I don't care who runs any state. The only things I care about are if it's possible that they can win a future senate race and if they can do good for branding for the party.

I'm sure the people of Louisiana share your sole interest in "winning" one for the Democratic Party.  Almost as good as football!  Except instead of football, it's addressing major issues in a state ravaged by death and destruction.  Game on!

[Conan]

I have heard of them. They aren't on par with those other polling firms and that's a fact.

Can you demonstrate that?  Do you have any source for that claim?  Or is this one of those Colbertian "feeling facts"?

On the governors race, I don't care who runs any state. The only things I care about are if it's possible that they can win a future senate race and if they can do good for branding for the party.

I'm sure the people of Louisiana share your sole interest in "winning" one for the Democratic Party.  Almost as good as football!  Except instead of football, it's addressing major issues in a state ravaged by death and destruction.  Game on!

Oh Mr. Morality. If it was only as simple as what you just wrote.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Oh Mr. Morality. If it was only as simple as what you just wrote.

Actually, I've been more yanking your chain on the second paragraph than anything.  So just call me Mr. Correct-About-the-Pollster.  I know you don't "hate a black."

Hug?

[Conan]

Oh Mr. Morality. If it was only as simple as what you just wrote.

Actually, I've been more yanking your chain on the second paragraph than anything.  So just call me Mr. Correct-About-the-Pollster.  I know you don't "hate a black."

Hug?

Sure we're good.

[Storebought]

I guess no one here noticed that, according to this poll, 44% of the black male respondents favored Jindal

Realistically, I think Jindal will get closer to 18% of the black vote, which is just enough to doom the Democrats in the first round anyhow.

[Former Moderate]

I guess no one here noticed that, according to this poll, 44% of the black male respondents favored Jindal

Realistically, I think Jindal will get closer to 18% of the black vote, which is just enough to doom the Democrats in the first round anyhow.

Unless someone like Nagin jumps into the race, where's the black vote going to go?