Who do you THINK will win the Republican nomination?

[© tweed]

May 2006

George Allen 40.6%
John McCain 31.9%
Mitt Romney 8.7%
Rudy Giuliani 8.7%
Other 8.7%

August 2006

John McCain 39.5%
George Allen 21.1%
Mitt Romney 13.2%
Rudy Giuliani 13.2%
Other (excl. Rice) 13.2%

November 2006

John McCain 46.2%
Mitt Romney 23.1%
Rudy Giuliani 15.4%
Mike Huckabee 7.7%
Newt Gingrich 7.7%


March 2007

Rudy Giuliani 45.7%
John McCain 28.6%
Mike Huckabee 11.4%
Mitt Romney 5.7%
Sam Brownback 2.9%
Other (excl. Gingrich) 5.7%

April 2007

Fred Thompson 46.9%
Rudy Giuliani 26.5%
Mitt Romney 12.2%
John McCain 10.2%
Other (excl. Gingrich, Hagel) 4.1%

June 2007

Fred Thompson 34.2%
Rudy Giuliani 31.6%
Mitt Romney 21.1%
John McCain 5.3%
Mike Huckabee 5.3%
Ron Paul 2.6%

July 2007

Mitt Romney 40.9%
Rudy Giuliani 34.1%
Fred Thompson 22.7%
John McCain 2.3%

[Reaganfan]

Who's the fool who voted for Ron Paul?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Who's the fool who voted for Ron Paul?

I'm not saying that the people involved aren't nuts, but he does have over a 5% chance according to InTrade.

[Bacon King]

Giuliani. Maaaybe Huckabee.

[Tender Branson]

I give Mitt Romney a 40% chance now, Giuliani 30%, Thompson 20% and Huckabee 10%.

[Mr. Morden]

Who's the fool who voted for Ron Paul?

I'm not saying that the people involved aren't nuts, but he does have over a 5% chance according to InTrade.

Yeah, but even if you believe he has a 5% chance, that's a far cry from saying that he's the *most likely* to win the nomination, which is what's being asked in this poll.

[Eraserhead]

1. Giuliani
2. Romney
3. Huckabee

The only three I can see taking it at the moment (in order of how likely I think they are of taking it).

[Sam Spade]

Giuliani is still the favorite by far.  Romney has gotten a nice bump out of Iowa.  In a week or two, we will know exactly how significant (or not) that bump is.

[Know Your Rights!]

Still going with Huckabee.

[M]

I still think Giuliani on electability.

Are we totally sure that Fred is an just having a NOT-flavor-of-the month? Is it so unlikely that should he get in in September, he'll make up for lost time?

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee is now a relatively close third place in this poll??  I think people are reading a bit too much into short term trends.

[Jake]

Giuliani. Maaaybe Huckabee.

Agreed.

Re: Fred Thompson; have we seriously been talking about him entering the race since February/March?

[Hash]

Still going with Huckabee.

[SPC]

I'm having a hard time imagining anyone winning the nomination right now.

Rudy Giuliani is an authoritarian asshole
Mitt Romney isn't getting what he should be getting with his money
Fred Thompson is clearly the emperor without clothes
John McCain is dead in the water
Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are unelectable (unfortunately)
Mike Huckabee can't raise money

[Mr. Morden]

And now Huckabee is in a 3-way tie for the lead with Giuliani and Romney(!).  I know the 2nd place finish in the straw poll was impressive, but don't you people claiming that Huckabee is now the **most likely nominee** think you might be getting a little carried away with this?

[Keystone Phil]

Fred

[Person Man]

I know that Hickabee (lol....having too much fun) would be the VP and Richardson would be the VP for the progressives.

[© tweed]

wow, Huckabee people are retarded

[The Dowager Mod]

Romney.

[King]

Romney

[M]

I'm having a hard time imagining anyone winning the nomination right now.

Rudy Giuliani is an authoritarian asshole

Who cares how he governs at home? The point is, he's the only candidate with the balls to take the fight, and democracy, to the enemy. I have never understood how anyone can claim to be 'libertarian' at home and yet effectively support totalitarianism abroad by opposing foreign intervention. That's the worst kind of hypocrisy.

[Reluctant Republican]

Well, not to but in, but the most important place to defend freedom is at home. Not to get all patriotic, but our freedoms and values are what makes us different from the terrorists and regimes like North Korea. If we sacrifice our freedoms to defeat the enemy, then was it really worth it? Besides, Libertarians value freedom here more then elsewhere. It’s not our business to tell other countries how to conduct their own affairs, or make sure they are Democratic, at least, from a Libertarian point of view.

That being said, Rudy's okay, though my first choice is the Ronster. I think Rudy will get the nod, however.

[SPC]

I'm having a hard time imagining anyone winning the nomination right now.

Rudy Giuliani is an authoritarian asshole

Who cares how he governs at home? The point is, he's the only candidate with the balls to take the fight, and democracy, to the enemy. I have never understood how anyone can claim to be 'libertarian' at home and yet effectively support totalitarianism abroad by opposing foreign intervention. That's the worst kind of hypocrisy.

A true Libertarian would neither support nor attempt to overthrow a dictator abroad. During wars is when the most freedoms are lost, if you were to look at it on a graph. Also, I would presume that a Libertarian would support the preservation of life (and no, I'm not referring to abortion), so lives can easily be saved on both sides by not getting into a war. It is not hypocritical for a Libertarian to be supportive of non-intervention abroad, in fact, I would think that the opposite would be true. A genuine Libertarian knows that, by definition, you cannot spread freedom through the barrel of a gun.

[YRABNNRM]

Right now, I believe Romney will take Iowa, New Hampshire, and probably South Carolina and run away with the nomination.

So right now I'd say we're looking at Clinton v. Romney which leaves me nowhere to turn. If Bloomberg runs, I suppose I'd vote for him out of protest, even though he's a nanny-stater.

[Person Man]

Which is good because Romney is only within the MoE in NH and CO according to Rassy. He is not competitive in Ohio or Florida. Nominating Romney would give all three big threes in Hillary.