If Canada and the UK used IRV

[Bacon King]

Overall, how do you think it would affect the makeup of their Parliaments?

[Hatman 🍁]

Very interesting. There would be less Conservatives, I can tell you that (at least in Canada).

[Gabu]

Very interesting. There would be less Conservatives, I can tell you that (at least in Canada).

Yes, Gary Lunn might actually not be able to win with 36% of the vote in this case.

[Bacon King]

Very interesting. There would be less Conservatives, I can tell you that (at least in Canada).

Yes, Gary Lunn might actually not be able to win with 36% of the vote in this case.

Yeah, it was actually a look at the Saanich—Gulf Islands election results that gave me the idea for this thread.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's what I see happening...

St. John's South-Mount Pearl --> CONS to LIB
Central Nova --> CONS to NDP
South Shore-St. Margaret's --> CONS to NDP
Tobique-Mactaquac --> CONS to LIB
Ahuntsic --> BQ to LIB
Brome-Missisaquoi --> BQ to LIB
Brossard-LaPrairie --> BQ to LIB
Chicoutimi-LeFjord --> BQ to LIB
Gatineau --> BQ to LIB
Jeanne-Le Ber --> BQ to LIB
Papineau --> BQ to LIB
Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale --> CONS to LIB
Barrie --> CONS to LIB
Burlington --> CONS to LIB
Cambridge --> CONS to LIB
Chatham-Kent-Essex --> CONS to LIB
Essex --> CONS to LIB
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell --> CONS to LIB
Halton --> CONS to LIB
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek --> NDP to LIB
Hamilton Mountain --> NDP to LIB
Kitchener-Conestoga --> CONS to LIB
London-Fanshawe --> NDP to LIB
Niagara Falls --> CONS to LIB
Northumberland-Quinte West --> CONS to LIB
Oshawa --> CONS to NDP
Ottawa Centre --> NDP to LIB
Ottawa-Orleans --> CONS to LIB
Ottawa West-Nepean --> CONS to LIB
Parkdale-High Park --> NDP to LIB
Parry Sound-Muskoka --> CONS to LIB
Peterborough --> CONS to LIB
St. Catharines --> CONS to LIB
Sarnia-Lambton --> CONS to LIB
Sault Ste. Marie --> NDP to LIB
Simcoe North --> CONS to LIB
Whitby-Oshawa --> CONS to LIB
Churchill --> LIB to NDP
Kildonan-St. Paul --> CONS to LIB
Winnipeg South --> CONS to LIB
Palliser --> CONS to NDP
Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre --> CONS to NDP
Regina-Qu'Appelle --> CONS to NDP
Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar --> CONS to NDP
Edmonton Centre --> CONS to LIB
Edmonton-Strathcona --> CONS to NDP
Burnaby-Douglas --> NDP to LIB
Burnaby-New Westminster --> NDP to LIB
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission --> CONS to NDP
Fleetwood-Port Kells --> CONS to LIB
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo --> CONS to NDP
Nanaimo-Alberni --> CONS to NDP
Port Moody-Westwood-Port Coquitlam --> CONS to LIB
Saanich-Gulf Islands --> CONS to NDP
Vicoria --> NDP to LIB
Western Arctic --> NDP to LIB

So as you can see, in almost every case the tories lose.

[Hatman 🍁]

Very interesting. There would be less Conservatives, I can tell you that (at least in Canada).

Yes, Gary Lunn might actually not be able to win with 36% of the vote in this case.

Yeah, it was actually a look at the Saanich—Gulf Islands election results that gave me the idea for this thread.

I have it going NDP *evil*

Here's what I see happening...

First round
Conservative 37%
NDP 29%
Liberal 23%
Green 11%
Western Block 1%

Second round
Conservative 38%
NDP 29%
Liberal 23%
Green 11%

Third round
Conservative 40%
NDP 34%
Liberal 26%

Fourth round
NDP 51%
Conservative 49%

[Gabu]

I have it going NDP *evil*

Yeah, you would.

Only thing is that I'm not so sure the NDP would be that far in second.  2006 was the only time ever that the NDP barely scraped into second, and that was because the Liberals had a sh**tty candidate.  I didn't even vote Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have it going NDP *evil*

Yeah, you would.

Only thing is that I'm not so sure the NDP would be that far in second.  2006 was the only time ever that the NDP barely scraped into second, and that was because the Liberals had a sh**tty candidate.  I didn't even vote Liberal.

Yes, they had a sh**tty candidate therefore they would not win. Obviously, they would have if IRV was in earlier years.

Take 2004 for example...

First round:
Conservative 33%
Liberal 25%
NDP 23%
Green 19%
Independent 1%

Third round
Conservative 37%
Liberal 32%
NDP 31%

Fourth round
Liberal 55%
Conservative 45%

[Gabu]

Yes, they had a sh**tty candidate therefore they would not win. Obviously, they would have if IRV was in earlier years.

Oh, I didn't know you were doing a re-do of 2006; I thought it was a hypothetical future election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, they had a sh**tty candidate therefore they would not win. Obviously, they would have if IRV was in earlier years.

Oh, I didn't know you were doing a re-do of 2006; I thought it was a hypothetical future election.

Nope. Who knows what a future election will look like. Your riding really is weird.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Overall it would benefit Labour (by how much be uncertain), though in some suburban areas it might benefit the Tories. I suspect that the main victims would actually be the LibDems; IRV tends to be less-than-nice to large third parties (for obvious reasons) and experiments with AV (which is a closely related system) haven't been very good for the LibDems (thinking especially of London Mayoral elections).

[Verily]

Overall it would benefit Labour (by how much be uncertain), though in some suburban areas it might benefit the Tories. I suspect that the main victims would actually be the LibDems; IRV tends to be less-than-nice to large third parties (for obvious reasons) and experiments with AV (which is a closely related system) haven't been very good for the LibDems (thinking especially of London Mayoral elections).

Well, the London "IRV" system is a complete joke instituted specifically to ensure Conservative-Labour dominance.

The Lib Dems certainly wouldn't lose any of their current seats, and would probably gain most of their target seats, but would be irrelevant in all seats that they didn't hold or come close in. The latter is also true of Labour and the Conservatives, of course; IRV really just reinforces the two-party system at the level of the constituencies (rather than nationwide). Labour would probably do better, at least they would have in 2005, but, unlike Canada, the Conservatives would still be able to win power.

Brighton Pavilion would have been interesting to see in IRV. The Lib Dem second preferences put Taylor and the Greens slightly ahead of the Conservatives, but do the Conservatives prefer a left-winger from the less left-wing party or a moderate from the more left-wing party?

In Canada, it would guarantee perpetual Liberal government. The NDP would win between 25 and 35 seats at every election, the Bloc between 30 and 40 seats, and the Conservatives never more than 80 seats.

[Hash]

Reading through this all I can is that IRV sucks.

[minionofmidas]

Reading through this all I can is that IRV sucks.

Every system based on singlemember seats does, so this is no surprise.

[Hash]

Reading through this all I can is that IRV sucks.

Every system based on singlemember seats does, so this is no surprise.

If I understood this correctly IRV would lead to long-time Liberal governments. Atleast FPTP gives some sort of alternance once in a while.