General Election called in Greece

[Jens]

The Greek prime minister Kostas Karamanlis has today called for a general election on September 16th. Karamanlis and his party New Democracy has been under pressure the latest time because of a number of scandales.

[Hash]

Good news for me:

BTW, 30 June 2007 poll

ND 36.1%
PASOK 35.1%
KKE (Communist) 7.6%
Synaspismos 4.3%
Popular Orthodox Rally 4.2%
Other 0.6%
Unsure 12.1%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Greek_legislative_election

[Hash]

2004 results:

ND 45.4% (165 seats)
PASOK 40.5% (117 seats)
KKE 5.9% (12 seats)
Coalition of the Radical Left (now Synaspismos) 3.3% (6 seats)
--Winning 0 seats--
Popular Orthodox Rally 2.2%
Democratic Social Movement 1.8%
Union of Centrists 0.3%
Radical Left Front 0.2%
Communist Party of Greece (Marxist-Leninist) 0.2%
Anti-Capitalist Coalition 0.1%
Hellenic Front 0.1%
Marxist-Leninist Communist Party of Greece 0.1%
Militant Socialist Party of Greece 0%
Liberal Party (Greece) 0%
Organization for the Reconstruction of the Communist Party of Greece 0%
Independents 0.01%
Hristopistia 0.0%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_legislative_election%2C_2004

2006 locals for predictions:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_local_elections%2C_2006

[minionofmidas]

"Popular Orthodox Rally" is LAOS I assume?
And "Democratic Social Movement" is DIKKI?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting to see that both major parties seem to have lost a lot of support from last time round. Why?

[minionofmidas]

Interesting to see that both major parties seem to have lost a lot of support from last time round. Why?

The 12.1% unsure figure might have summat to do wit' it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting to see that both major parties seem to have lost a lot of support from last time round. Why?

The 12.1% unsure figure might have summat to do wit' it.

Ah. Yes. Makes sense now.

[Hash]

Interesting to see that both major parties seem to have lost a lot of support from last time round. Why?

Well KKE, LAOS, Synaspismos picked up support, so some of their supporters might be former PASOK, ND supporters.

[Middle-aged Europe]

So, which one is the party where some of its members were affiliated with that weird Nazi Ufo sect which claims that Greeks are in fact genetically superior supermen from outer space? LAOS?

[Hash]

So, which one is the party where some of its members were affiliated with that weird Nazi Ufo sect which claims that Greeks are in fact genetically superior supermen from outer space? LAOS?

I assume that'd be LAOS, which is also anti-semitic and messed up.

If my understanding of the Greek election system is correct, LAOS should wins seats, although probably less than 5.

[Hash]

New poll, released on Angus-reid, http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16980

Numbers August 2007 compared to June 07

ND 31% (-5.
PASOK 29.5% (-6.3)
KKE 7% (+0.6)
Synaspismos 4.3% (+0.5)
Popular Orthodox Rally 3.5% (-0.3)

Source: Metron Analysis
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,056 Greek adults, conducted from Aug. 20 to Aug. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.

Another August 22 poll: http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/index.cfm/fuseaction/viewItem/itemID/16957

ND 36.2%
PASOK 34.6%
KKE 7.1%
Popular Orthodox Rally 4.6%
Synaspismos 4.2%

Government preference gave 41.6% prefering the ND and 37.4% favored PASOK, 24% favored neither or were unsure.

Source: GPO
Methodology: Interviews to 2,000 Greek adults, conducted from Aug. 20 to Aug. 22, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
 

[Hash]

Synaspismos and DIKKI will form a common list, if it had been the case in 2004 the total of the vote of the two would have been 5.1%

Results 2004 link: http://www.ypes.gr/ekloges/content/EN/ethnik_fr.htm

[Harry Hayfield]

They'll never be able to hold a general election with these wildfires surely!

[Jens]

They'll never be able to hold a general election with these wildfires surely!

It is only a part af Peloponnes that is affected - but the campaigns has been suspended in respect of the victims (the fires are a very bad case for the government)

[Hash]

They'll never be able to hold a general election with these wildfires surely!

It is only a part af Peloponnes that is affected - but the campaigns has been suspended in respect of the victims (the fires are a very bad case for the government)

Note on electoral geography;

The northern Peloponnesus (Ilia and Achaia) were two of the ten prefectures to vote PASOK in 2004, Korinthia voted PASOK in 2000, and Arkadia voted PASOK in 1996. Achaia is solid PASOK land btw.

The other southern prefectures of Peloponnesus voted ND 1996-2004.

[Hash]

Some polls

New Democracy (ND) 35.2%
Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) 33.2%
Communist Party of Greece (KKE) 7.3%
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYR) 4.4%
People’s Orthodox Alarm (LAOS) 3.9%

New Democracy (ND) 35.0%
Pan-Hellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) 34.2%
Communist Party of Greece (KKE) 6.5%
People’s Orthodox Alarm (LAOS) 3.6%
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYR) 3.4%

Apparently, a law forbids publication of any more polls in Greece until the 16th, wiki says the remaining polls will come out in the Cypriot press.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I have to ask... are LAOS for real..?

I mean, Seriously?

[Hash]

I have to ask... are LAOS for real..?

I mean, Seriously?

Sadly, yes they are. The FN seems liberal compared to that bunch of anti-semitic, conspiracy theorist people. Can't believe such a party will be able to get seats (unfortunately)

[minionofmidas]

Election's on sunday.

[SPQR]

How can the ND still be leading in the polls after what happened this summer!?!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

How can the ND still be leading in the polls after what happened this summer!?!

Taking a look at the polls on wiki shows them to be at best all over the place. Especially when "None of the Above" and "unsure" are included. But ND lead in all.

But take these three polls for instance:

                                      ND      PASOK    KKE  RAD.LEFT LAOS   OTH   NOTA  UNSURE
ALCO 31 August 2007  31.5%   30.8%   6.5%   3.7%    3.6%     -        -           -
VPRC  31 August 2007 42.0%   38.0%   8.5%    5.0%   4.0%   2.5%   -           -
Metron29 August 2007 29.7%   28.1%   8.1%   4.7%    3.6%  2.6% 10.5%  17.4%

[Hash]

Correction, the VPRC was not a poll but it was a projection on their part of the election day vote. With 42%, ND would likely get a majority. As other polls state though, they would have only a plurality.

How can the ND still be leading in the polls after what happened this summer!?!

Actually, an article in The Independent I think said the far-right got a boost with these wildfires, as neither the ND or PASOK were able to get votes out of the fires.

[SPQR]

But in case it got only 1/2% more than the PASOK,could the socialists form a government with the KKE and SYR,or are they like Germany's SPD?

[Hash]

But in case it got only 1/2% more than the PASOK,could the socialists form a government with the KKE and SYR,or are they like Germany's SPD?

There is a precedent, for example in June 1989 ND won with a 5% PV lead but a PASOK electoral law prevented ND from forming a government so PASOK-SYN formed a government. That lasted until November 1989 with a ND-PASOK-SYN government. That lasted until 1990.

Not sure if they'd do it again though.

But you might want to know the leading party has a 40 seat bonus, even if its a 0.01% lead. And Karamanlis said that if no party has a majority, they'll hold another election. So ND or PASOK need atleast 111 seats to form a majority government.

A last note- last predictions call the election too close to call until the last minute.

[SPQR]

Ok,so ND or PASOK roughly need 40% in order to be able to have a majority,right?
And thanks for your answers,I am a complete newbie in Greek politics.