Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, I was thinking of this weird what-if where, in 2006, Foley doesn't cancel his reelection bid but instead breaks this story about Mahoney. (of course, it would have had to have developped further by then for this to be at ll possible) I'd've loved to see that bitchfest.

[Sam Spade]

Dems have thrown about 500K at Georgia.  That's good enough for me to push it into Lean, but in Senate contests, 500K is indicative of a test run to see the response (kinda like the 200K thrown into NE-02, not the 500K thrown into IN-03).

[Sam Spade]

On other thought: the DCCC has expended nearly $1 million in AZ-01 and they put up a new ad today. Is Sydney Hay holding up better than Randy Graf did?

AZ-01 is a bit different of a CD than AZ-08, imho.  Lots of moderate Republicans in AZ-08.  Of course, McCain here helps greatly.  But spending one million is a sign of something.  Especially when Fitzpatrick is not exactly short of funds.

On a completely different topic, one of the things that's annoying me this year is the increased reliance of pundits on *publicly released internals*.  To me, you only rely on them when the candidate is showing himself behind or something like that.  Any other reliance is just guessing (like my 5-point differential formula, which is probably garbage with most polls even).

[Sam Spade]

Lastly, I'm burying Steve Pearce today...

[minionofmidas]

On other thought: the DCCC has expended nearly $1 million in AZ-01 and they put up a new ad today. Is Sydney Hay holding up better than Randy Graf did?

AZ-01 is a bit different of a CD than AZ-08, imho.  Lots of moderate Republicans in AZ-08.  Of course, McCain here helps greatly.  But spending one million is a sign of something.  Especially when Fitzpatrick is not exactly short of funds.

On a completely different topic, one of the things that's annoying me this year is the increased reliance of pundits on *publicly released internals*.  To me, you only rely on them when the candidate is showing himself behind or something like that.  Any other reliance is just guessing (like my 5-point differential formula, which is probably garbage with most polls even).

Given the track record of the national and statewide parties in understanding this seat, I wouldn't attach any significance to what they do or think.

[Lunar]

The DSCC has bought 500k in Georgia...

[Sam Spade]

The DSCC has bought 500k in Georgia...

Dems have thrown about 500K at Georgia.  That's good enough for me to push it into Lean, but in Senate contests, 500K is indicative of a test run to see the response (kinda like the 200K thrown into NE-02, not the 500K thrown into IN-03).

Reading is your friend. 

[Lunar]

Aww shucks.

[HardRCafé]

Lastly, I'm burying Steve Pearce today...

That race was over when Pearce won the primary.

[Sam Spade]

Lastly, I'm burying Steve Pearce today...

That race was over when Pearce won the primary.

I know, I know.  But a move to Safe means that he's dead and buried, not just dead. 

[Ronnie]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

[Sam Spade]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

[Ronnie]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

No, but the Cook PVI in the district seems too slanted to the Republicans for Markey to win.  I dunno.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

No, but the Cook PVI in the district seems too slanted to the Republicans for Markey to win.  I dunno.

The district is clearly moving to the Democrats.  Musgrave's margin of victory has gotten thinner and thinner in every election since her first in 2002.  Just look at Larimer county that makes almost half of the district's votes and is the fastest growing in the district.  George W. Bush won it by just 52%-47% in 2004 after he won it 53%-39% in 2000 and even Bob Dole won it by five points in 1996.  Obama will almost surely carry it by at least a few points and that will surely help Markey. 

[Ronnie]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

No, but the Cook PVI in the district seems too slanted to the Republicans for Markey to win.  I dunno.

The district is clearly moving to the Democrats.  Musgrave's margin of victory has gotten thinner and thinner in every election since her first in 2002.  Just look at Larimer county that makes almost half of the district's votes and is the fastest growing in the district.  George W. Bush won it by just 52%-47% in 2004 after he won it 53%-39% in 2000 and even Bob Dole won it by five points in 1996.  Obama will almost surely carry it by at least a few points and that will surely help Markey. 

Uh, Bush won the district 58-41.  The only reason Larimer swung so much to Kerry was because the Nader votes (which constituted a high amount of votes in the county in 2000) broke hard for Kerry in 2004.

[Lunar]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QBFARnjmIEE&eurl

Some talent in there.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't know, for some reason I don't see Musgrave losing reelection.

Musgrave's going to suddenly start to get an ouch of political talent?

No, but the Cook PVI in the district seems too slanted to the Republicans for Markey to win.  I dunno.

The district is clearly moving to the Democrats.  Musgrave's margin of victory has gotten thinner and thinner in every election since her first in 2002.  Just look at Larimer county that makes almost half of the district's votes and is the fastest growing in the district.  George W. Bush won it by just 52%-47% in 2004 after he won it 53%-39% in 2000 and even Bob Dole won it by five points in 1996.  Obama will almost surely carry it by at least a few points and that will surely help Markey. 

Uh, Bush won the district 58-41.  The only reason Larimer swung so much to Kerry was because the Nader votes (which constituted a high amount of votes in county in 2000) broke hard for Kerry in 2004.

McCain will be lucky to win it by five this year.  Larimer went from 53% in 2000 to just 52% for Bush in 2004 and the county is growing rapidly. 

[© tweed]

isn't WY-AL as 'Likely R' a bit of stretch...?

[Sam Spade]

isn't WY-AL as 'Likely R' a bit of stretch...?

Once again - reexamine the poll and tell me who the undecideds are.  I'm not getting ruined on my predictions like I did with Idaho in 2006 where the same thing occurred.

[© tweed]

isn't WY-AL as 'Likely R' a bit of stretch...?

Once again - reexamine the poll and tell me who the undecideds are.  I'm not getting ruined on my predictions like I did with Idaho in 2006 where the same thing occurred.

I understand that and agree with your implication that most undecideds will come home and pull Lummis across the finish line.  but 'likely' to me implies >90% or so chance of victory which just doesn't quite work for me...

this is a bit of an academic point as we agree Lummis is likely to win anyway but I'd put Trauner's chances closer to Musgrove's (lean) than I would Tom Allen's (likely).

[Lunar]

I know you don't like news updates, but MAmbinder is saying that the DSCC is sending staff and even more money to GA.

[MarkWarner08]

Are either of these statements plausible, Sam?

1. Michael Skelly will win 47%-48% of the vote. He'll be buoyed by early voting, which will actually favor TX Dems for the first time in awhile.

2. Nick Lampson will win by a solid margin (>4%). The VFW has backed Lampson, the NRCC has pulled out of the district, and Lampson's  numbers suggest that Olson's approvals are in the negative range.  Growing minority turnout will holster Lampson's chances. Hurricane Ike also dampened enthusiasm for Olson in a district that needs federal pork to rebuild.

[Sam Spade]

Are either of these statements plausible, Sam?

1. Michael Skelly will win 47%-48% of the vote. He'll be buoyed by early voting, which will actually favor TX Dems for the first time in awhile.

Possible.  I still think Skelly's ceiling is somewhat lower

2. Nick Lampson will win by a solid margin (>4%). The VFW has backed Lampson, the NRCC has pulled out of the district, and Lampson's  numbers suggest that Olson's approvals are in the negative range.  Growing minority turnout will holster Lampson's chances. Hurricane Ike also dampened enthusiasm for Olson in a district that needs federal pork to rebuild.[/quote]

I have no clue here.  The minority factor in this CD is overrated, IMHO.  Blacks are only 9%, which is actually not that much greater from Culberson's CD.  Asians and Hispanics are the main minorities (8.4% and 20.3% respectively), but I really don't see their low-turnout tendencies changing in this election.

As for Ike, here's the key point:  There's two parts of this CD that were affected in any part by Ike.  Only one part of the county do I care about.  The Fort Bend and Brazoria parts of the county got very little, if nothing, from Ike.  The Galveston county part was always going to vote for Lampson anyways.

Rather, it's the Harris County suburban growth parts, the growth to the South and Southeast of Pasadena and Clear Lake, most importantly, that are highly Republican, and might be affected.  There are also some blue dog Democrat areas in Harris County along the bay - please ignore.

If Lampson can start flipping votes in these areas in any great numbers, then he'll certainly stand a decent chance of winning.  Problem is, I can't tell you how flippable they are.

It would be really nice to have a poll out of here.

[Torie]

Robin Hayes just said that he wants Sam to move his name higher up on the list. He wants to be number one! 

[Sam Spade]

Robin Hayes just said that he wants Sam to move his name higher up on the list. He wants to be number one! 

No way he's getting above McMahon, sorry.