Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Sam Spade]

Senate/House Rankings
Senate

Safe D
Arkansas
Colorado (R)*
Delaware
Illinois
Iowa
Massachusetts
Michigan
Montana
New Jersey
New Mexico (R)*
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Virginia (R)*
West Virginia

Lean D
Alaska (R)
Oregon (R)
New Hampshire (R)
Louisiana

Toss-up
Minnesota (R)
North Carolina (R)

Lean R
Georgia
Mississippi #2 - Wicker
Kentucky

Safe R
Alabama
Idaho*
Kansas
Maine
Mississippi #1 - Cochran
Nebraska*
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Tennessee
Texas
Wyoming #1 - Barrasso
Wyoming #2 - Enzi
House

DEM Pickup List

Likely D
1. NY-13* (Fossella)
2. NY-25* (Walsh)

Lean D
3. VA-11* (Davis)
4. FL-24 (Feeney)
5. OH-16* (Regula)
6. CO-04 (Musgrave)
7. AZ-01* (Renzi)
8. IL-11* (Weller)

Toss-up/Lean D NOT COMPLETE BELOW HERE
9. FL-08 (Keller)
24. NM-02* (Pearce)
11. NJ-03* (Saxton)
12. NM-01* (Wilson)
13. OH-15* (Pryce)
14. AK-AL (Young)


Toss-up
9. NC-08 (Hayes)
8. NV-03 (Porter)

16. PA-03 (English)
17. NY-29 (Kuhl)
18. MI-09 (Knollenberg)
15. MN-03* (Ramstad)
[dividing line]
19. MI-07 (Walberg)
21. CT-04 (Shays)
22. OH-01 (Chabot)

Toss-up/Lean R
23. NJ-07* (Ferguson)

25. LA-04* (McCrery)
26. WA-08 (Reichert)
27. IL-10 (Kirk)
28. MD-01* (Gilchrest)
29. FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)

Lean R
30. NY-26* (Reynolds)
31. AZ-03 (Shadegg)
32. AL-02* (Everett)
33. MO-09* (Hulshof)
34. CA-04* (Doolittle)
35. KY-02* (Lewis)
36. MO-06 (Graves)
37. IN-03 (Souder)
38. ID-01 (Sali)
39. MN-06 (Bachmann)
40. NE-02 (Terry)

Likely R
41. FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
42. OH-02 (Schmidt)
43. NV-02 (Heller)
44. VA-02 (Drake)
45. WY-AL* (Cubin)
46. FL-13 (Buchanan)
47. WV-02 (Capito)
48. IA-04 (Latham)
49. TX-07 (Culberson)
50. PA-15 (Dent)

Watch List (up to 65)
AL-03 (Rogers)
CA-03 (Lungren)
CA-46 (Rohrabacher)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
IL-06 (Roskam)
IL-18* (LaHood)
LA-07 (Boustany)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
OH-07* (Hobson)
OH-14 (LaTourette)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
SC-01 (Brown)
TX-10 (McCaul)
VA-05 (Goode)
VA-10 (Wolf)

GOP Pickup List

Likely R
1. FL-16 (Mahoney)

Toss-up/Lean R
2. TX-22 (Lampson)
3. PA-11 (Kanjorski)

Pure Toss-up
4. KS-02 (Boyda)
5. LA-06 (Cazayoux)
dividing line
6. NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
7. AL-05* (Cramer)

Toss-up/Lean D
8. PA-10 (Carney)
9. GA-08 (Marshall)
10. WI-08 (Kagen)

Lean D
11. IN-09 (Hill)
12. TX-23 (Rodriguez)
13. PA-04 (Altmire)
14. NY-20 (Gillibrand)
15. CT-05 (Murphy)

Likely D
16. AZ-08 (Giffords)
17. AZ-05 (Mitchell)
18. KS-03 (Moore)
19. KY-03 (Yarmuth)
20. OR-05* (Hooley)
21. CA-11 (McNerney)
22. PA-08 (Murphy)
23. NH-02 (Hodes)
24. MS-01 (Childers)
25. MN-01 (Walz)

Watch List (up to 35)
CT-02 (Courtney)
IL-08 (Bean)
IL-14 (Foster)
IN-08 (Ellsworth)
ME-01* (Allen)
NC-11 (Shuler)
NY-19 (Hall)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
OH-18 (Space)
UT-02 (Matheson)

[Sam Spade]

Kinda surprised this thread hasn't got more action - predictions too reasonable, perhaps??? 

Bumping anyway.

[Nym90]

Kinda surprised this thread hasn't got more action - predictions too reasonable, perhaps??? 

Bumping anyway.

Yeah, I think that's it, at least for me. Nothing really to quibble with, and it's too early to have a good feel for most of these races yet.

[nlm]

I'm not a crystal ball wielding kind of guy, but I do enjoy reading other folks take on such things. Here's Chris Cillizza, over at the WaPo, take on the Senate seats most likely to flip as of now.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/08/the_line_where_are_the_gop_sen.html

10. Alaska: We never thought we'd write this, but Sen. Ted Stevens (R) appears to be in serious electoral jeopardy. Stevens, a legend in Alaska politics, has drawn considerable scrutiny from a federal investigation into a pay-to-play scandal involving an Alaska energy company. Democrats sense an opportunity and are optimistic that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, the son of late Alaska Rep. Nick Begich (D), will decide to take on Stevens. A recent independent poll conducted in the state showed the depth of Stevens's potential problems: 44 percent felt favorably toward him while 40 percent felt unfavorably. Stevens, 83, insists he has no plans to retire. If the investigation continues to proceed, however, Stevens may rethink that plan. (Previous ranking: N/A)

9. South Dakota: All eyes will be on Tim Johnson (D) later this month when he makes his first trip to the state since emergency brain surgery late last year. While we believe Johnson wants to run for another term, we don't believe he has made a final decision. National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign (Nev.) announced earlier this month that he would begin to put the pieces in place to find a serious candidate to challenge Johnson. The response by Johnson's office -- calling Ensign's announcement "a classless attack by a desperate chairman" -- was WAY over the top; Ensign's job, after all, is to elect more Republicans. Even so, it's hard to see a serious Republican emerging if Johnson decides to run for reelection. Gov. Mike Rounds (R) is the party's strongest candidate but would likely run only if Johnson decides to retire. (Previous ranking: 9)

8. Nebraska: Can anyone claim to know what's going on in the mind of Sen. Chuck Hagel (R)? The Fix expects him to announce his retirement from the Senate some time this fall, but Hagel has proved us wrong before. If Hagel retires, Democrats are expected to make a major push for his seat. The likely candidate is Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey, although former Sen. Bob Kerrey has also expressed some interest and might well have the right of first refusal. Republicans would quickly move to recruit Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns, a former Nebraska governor, but it's not clear that Attorney General Jon Bruning, who is already in the race, would back out. The eventual Republican nominee should be helped by the state's strong GOP bent. (Previous ranking:

7. Minnesota: Sen. Norm Coleman must be feeling pretty good about his reelection chances, since he is bringing President Bush into the state on Aug. 21 to raise money for his candidacy. Coleman can expect a bashing from both of his potential Democratic opponents -- comedian Al Franken and 2000 Senate candidate Mike Ciresi -- but he obviously calculated that the money he will raise from the Bush visit is worth it. It's hard to analyze this race until we know whether Franken or Ciresi will emerge from next summer's nominating convention as the party's nominee. Either way, Democrats will seek to make the race a referendum on Coleman and his relationship with President Bush. It's a potent argument in a state Bush lost in 2004 (albeit narrowly), but even Democrats acknowledge Coleman's political savvy and agree that this race is far from a slam dunk (don't forget that the GOP will hold its national convention in the Twin Cities next summer). Still, it is a testament to Democratic opportunities in 2008 that a race likely to be decided by a few percentage points is only ranked No. 7 on The Line. (Previous ranking: 5)

6. Maine: Democrats want the race between Rep. Tom Allen (D) and Sen. Susan Collins (R) to be about one thing -- Iraq. Allen voted against the war in 2002 while Collins supported it. Republicans argue that Iraq is only a part of this race; voters know and like Collins for her moderate positioning on a wide range of issues, they say, and respect the fact that she is trying to find a consensus solution somewhere between President Bush's surge proposal and Democrats' push for withdrawal. Who's right? We don't know. Here's two things we do know: First, Collins is in the fight of her political life; and second, her political skills are regularly underrated. (Previous ranking: 4)

5. Oregon: After a long search, Democrats have settled on state House Speaker Jeff Merkley as their preferred candidate against Sen. Gordon Smith (R). Merkley started the campaign on the right foot by recruiting Gov. Ted Kulongoski and former Gov. Barbara Roberts as his campaign chairs, although he still faces a primary from activist Steve Novick. Merkley is seeking to set the terms of the race early by making clear he opposed the war in Iraq from the start while Smith made an "election night reversal" on the issue. Smith is no slouch and will be very well-funded. But the national political environment could play heavily in this race. A poll conducted for Novick showed that just 21 percent of Oregonians thought Bush was doing an "excellent/good" job while a whopping 79 percent thought he was doing a "fair/poor" job. We known Smith isn't Bush, but that is a tough hill to climb for anyone with an "R" after his name. (Previous ranking: 7)

4. Virginia: This race continues to move up The Line based on two assumptions: Sen. John Warner (R) announces his retirement next month and former Gov. Mark Warner (D) quickly enters the race. If either of those events doesn't come to pass, then this race will drop down the rankings. But John Warner does seem set to leave the Senate after more than three decades in office, and Mark Warner is clearly itching to get back into political life following his sudden departure from the presidential race in the fall of 2006. Mark Warner, who left office as one of the most popular governors in the country, would almost certainly have the Democratic primary to himself. Republicans, meanwhile, would likely face a primary between Rep. Tom Davis and former Gov. Jim Gilmore, a race that could expose serious ideological division within the GOP. Regardless of whom Republicans pick, Mark Warner would be a favorite. (Previous ranking: 6)

3. Louisiana: We're leaving this race in the No. 3 position because we can't figure out where else to put it. On the one hand, even Democrats acknowledge that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is endangered due to the changing political nature of the Bayou State -- a process that was accelerated by the outmigration from the Democratic bastion of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. On the other hand, Republicans seem to be putting all of their hopes on state Treasurer John Kennedy, who is currently a Democrat. Party switching isn't the black mark in Louisiana that it is in other states, but Kennedy's flirtation with the state Attorney General's race this year (he eventually decided not to run) raises questions about how dedicated he is to challenging Landrieu. (Previous ranking: 3)

2. New Hampshire: Although Democrats are worried about premature celebration, most state and national party strategists believe former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is going to announce next month that she will take on Sen. John Sununu (R). Shaheen's own husband has told supporters that his wife is "70 percent" likely to run, according to columnist Bob Novak. If Shaheen runs, she starts the race as the favorite. Sununu is a savvy senator but faces a very difficult task in running away from President Bush and the Republican label -- both of which are major problems in the Northeast. (Previous ranking: 2)

1. Colorado: The challenge before former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) became clear late last month when a liberal activist group -- known as ProgressNowAction -- accused him of selling his vote on the state's Board of Education for a campaign contribution. Whether the accusation sticks is beside the point. Colorado has an incredibly well organized and well funded group of progressive groups that will be blasting away at Schaffer every day of the campaign. That means Rep. Mark Udall (D) can keep his hands clean, focusing on courting the political independents who will likely decide the race. (Previous ranking: 1)

[Sam Spade]

Nlm, I do take opinions by Cook (when he updates), Rothenberg, Cilizza (less so) and a couple of others into account when making my rankings, but thanks for posting it anyway.

[Conan]

Senate
Safe D

Arkansas (Huckabee's not running here, so I see no danger - the AR GOP is in pretty bad shape anywho)

Delaware (Biden's going nowhere - in the Prez election)

Illinois (there is presently a lot of infighting going on between Illinois Dems at the state level, but at the national level everything is just fine)

Massachusetts (Kerry's in more danger from a primary than anything else)

Michigan (Levin won't pull huge numbers, but he's safe)

Rhode Island (obviously - if Reed runs for re-election, still obviously otherwise)

West Virginia (see Rhode Island - less safe (LiIkely) if Rockefeller were for some reason to retire)

Likely D

Iowa (If Harkin can attract some GOP congressman to run, he'll win with around 54%-55% as normal, otherwise it's a larger margin and more safe)

Montana (Baucus has had close elections before - his opponent is a joke, but not an unknown joke)

New Jersey (go ahead and laugh - I am)

Lean D

Louisiana (Kennedy is not running (for now), but Landrieu is far from being out of the woods here)

South Dakota (I am still not convinced Johnson will be able to "return" from the Senate - time will tell, but time is running out)

Toss-up

Colorado* (R) (Udall v. Schaefer - Schaefer would obviously love to have Hillary at the top, but that's been clear for a while)

New Hampshire (R) (if Sununu gets Shaheen, put it in Lean D - otherwise this is where it belongs for now)

Lean R

Maine (probably at the bottom of my Lean R's but Allen is sure raising the cash - history is against him though)

Minnesota (I know, lots of questions here - they will be answered soon)

Oregon (well at least Smith now has an opponent - let's see whether he can show the goods - the race is here for now depending on Merkley's ability or lack thereof - at which point it moves back down)

Likely R

Alaska (lots of questions here - Stevens doesn't poll well now and is in scandal - GOPers may be waiting to bite, a la Murkowski 2006 - Dems are looking too, but no one worth a mention has entered - until these questions are answered, the race must stay here b/c of Alaska's natural GOP lean and Stevens' ability to bring in pork like it's going out of style)

Georgia (when Saxby switched back on immigration his numbers went back up - he does have a reasonable opponent in Jones (if Jones gets past primary) - and Saxby is not that popular)

Kentucky (since Mitch has a legit opponent, I'll definitely place him here - the Forgy crap is mucho overrated, Phil)

Nebraska (will Hagel run? I suspect not - he'll probably lose in the primary anyway.  If Bob Kerrey runs, the race will be higher up - if Fahey runs, it'll stay right here.  NE Dems can win Senate seats, but they're usually Governors beforehand)

New Mexico (Domenici is getting close to being put back in safe - his challengers are real jokes and his approval appears to have stabilized - and he's raising money, so retirement doesn't look like it's gonna happen)

North Carolina (I know, Dole doesn't poll well for now - but where's the opponent that I'm not laughing at)

Texas (since Cornyn's approvals are not that great and he has an opponent with money - it's best to be careful.  Though as usual I wouldn't be surprised if Noreiga beats him in the primary and follows the Morales v. Gramm 1996 pattern)

Virginia (you know the story - if Warner's runs, he'll probably win - if not - move to toss-up and see who the candidates are)

Safe R
Alabama (popular GOP Senator in Alabama - if Sessions runs for re-election, he's safe)

Idaho (regardless of whether Craig runs or no - if Dems couldn't win here in 2006, I can't see 2008 chances being any better)

Kansas (Roberts is not that popular, but I see no possible challengers that aren't jokes, so...)

Mississippi (looks like Cochran's running again (esp. with Pickering leaving - if so, definitely safe)

Oklahoma (Inhofe has a not-laughable (well, semi-laughable) opponent, but until I see something that does not back up that 60-24 approval rating I saw a few months ago, I'm not moving.  Plus, Inhofe talks like a guy who's seat is totally safe, as opposed to Cornyn, odd as this may sound)

South Carolina (Lindsay is more afraid of the primary than a Democrat)

Tennessee (Lamar's quite safe)

Wyoming#1 - Barrasso (should fear a primary challenge more)

Wyoming#2 - Enzi (obvious)

Those are my qualms. NH is toss up without Shaheen and likely D with her. MN is toss up. Georgia is safe. Texas is safe.

[MarkWarner08]

Astute predictions - any partisan bias =  more agreement and fewer comments

[Sam Spade]

Conan:

Texas and Georgia should be safe, but I always play it more cautious coming out of the gate.

NH will be Lean D with Shaheen, sorry we disagree.  Too early to put anything in the Likely part of the other team's column unless an open seat.

MN may be tossup eventually, but it certainly not tossup now.

[MarkWarner08]

Conan:

Texas and Georgia should be safe, but I always play it more cautious coming out of the gate.

NH will be Lean D with Shaheen, sorry we disagree.  Too early to put anything in the Likely part of the other team's column unless an open seat.

MN may be tossup eventually, but it certainly not tossup now.

Sam, would you agree that Mike Ciresi is a stronger nominee than Al Franken? While Norm Coleman is more charismatic and less prone to errors that Rod Grams, I see parallels between the 2000 race between liberal self-funder Mark Dayton and wishy-washy conservative Rod Grams.  I'd put Coleman in the toss-up category for now, largely because of  Minnesota's political history.

Minnesota has the longest streak of voting Democratic in  a Presidential election (and it nearly voted fro McGovern in '72), it has only elected one Republican to the Senate since 1990 and it's recently swung heavily towards the Democrats (Democrats have retaken the State House, solidified their majority in the State Senate, won a U.S House seat and nearly beat the relatively popular moderate Governor with a milquetoast candidate who had a propensity for profane statements). If Norm Coleman could barely beat a politician with cob-webbed political skills (Walter Mondale) in the most pro-Republican year since 1994, how can he possibly be secure in 2008?

[Conan]

Conan:

Texas and Georgia should be safe, but I always play it more cautious coming out of the gate.

NH will be Lean D with Shaheen, sorry we disagree.  Too early to put anything in the Likely part of the other team's column unless an open seat.

MN may be tossup eventually, but it certainly not tossup now.

With Shaheen polling near 60% this far away from the election and Sununu's unwillingness to moderate, it's likely dem with her at this moment, and I guess it's only one poll for MN, if there's some more confirmation of those polls then it's def toss up now.

[HardRCafé]

If Norm Coleman could barely beat a politician with cob-webbed political skills (Walter Mondale) in the most pro-Republican year since 1994, how can he possibly be secure in 2008?

You sidestep the fact Mondale had never lost anything in Minnesota and was never expected to.

[Sam Spade]

If Norm Coleman could barely beat a politician with cob-webbed political skills (Walter Mondale) in the most pro-Republican year since 1994, how can he possibly be secure in 2008?

You sidestep the fact Mondale had never lost anything in Minnesota and was never expected to.

I get your point, but thanks for trying to be funny anyways. 

[Sam Spade]

Based on events of the past week, I have updated my Senate list.

[© Tweed the Younger]

why do you think Warner v Davis would be only lean D?

[Sam Spade]

why do you think Warner v Davis would be only lean D?

B/c it's Virginia, which last time I checked is still considered a lean R state at the Prez level.  Warner would cut into Davis in rural Virginia.  Davis would cut into Warner in suburban Virginia.

[Senator Ben]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
Idaho
Nebraska

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
New Mexico
Tennessee (if Ford runs, otherwise likely GOP)

Here's a map for it:

[Jaggerjack]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
Idaho
Nebraska

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
New Mexico
Tennessee (if Ford runs, otherwise likely GOP)

Here's a map for it:

Okay...

[Mr.Phips]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
Idaho
Nebraska

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
New Mexico
Tennessee (if Ford runs, otherwise likely GOP)

Here's a map for it:

At this point, I don't see Democrats winning Oregon.

[Former Moderate]

I'd also move NJ from "Strong" to "Likely," and move Idaho from "Likely" to "Strong."  I mean, seriously, Larry LaRocco?

[MarkWarner08]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
New Hampshire
Oregon

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
Idaho
Nebraska

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina
New Mexico
Tennessee (if Ford runs, otherwise likely GOP)

Here's a map for it:

At this point, I don't see Democrats winning Oregon.

Umm, why?  I'd argue that Minnesota -- if the DFL picks Franken -- much more likely to vote GOP than Oregon is.

[Sam Spade]

Updated

[MarkWarner08]

Updated

Great to see you're keeping tabs on these races. If I had more time (ie lighter course load), I'd post my House and Senate predictions. Oh, well, I guess I'll wait till Thanksgiving break.

[MarkWarner08]

Oregon (Dems look really disheveled here, especially with 3rd party looming)

For a person who's likely never set foot in the Beaver State, you've described our Senate race quite aptly and succinctly.

[Senator Ben]

Democrats
Strong Dem
Delaware
Illinois
Massachusetts
Michigan
New Jersey
Rhode Island

Likely Dem
Arkansas
Iowa
Montana
South Dakota
West Virginia
Virginia
New Hampshire

Lean Dem
Louisiana
Minnesota
Colorado
Oregon
New Mexico

Republicans
Strong GOP
Alabama
Alaska
Kansas
Mississippi
Oklahoma
South Carolina
Texas
Wyoming
Wyoming

Likely GOP
Georgia
Idaho
Nebraska
Tennessee

Lean GOP
Kentucky
Maine
North Carolina

Here's a new map:

[Sam Spade]

Updated

Great to see you're keeping tabs on these races. If I had more time (ie lighter course load), I'd post my House and Senate predictions. Oh, well, I guess I'll wait till Thanksgiving break.

Well, I haven't done a thing about the House races myself, but I figure that the House races are still fairly fluid in many respects (challengers still likely to enter now).