Sam Spade's 2008 Senate/House Election Prediction Thread (FINALIZED - SEE P.18)

[Sam Spade]

Just re-did Senate.  House undergoes a major renovation tomorrow.

[MarkWarner08]

Looking forward to your House updates. It'll be interesting to see where you place MN-06.

[Sam Spade]

Looking forward to your House updates. It'll be interesting to see where you place MN-06.

SUSA should have a poll out tonight.

[MarkWarner08]

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in. 

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

[Sam Spade]

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in. 

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

I didn't see the poll you're referring to.

[Mr.Phips]

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in. 

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

I dont think any Democrat would ever win NC-05 in its present form.  Democrats drew it to keep Republicans out of NC-12 and NC-13 and pack as many Republicans as possible in NC-05.  If Democrats were to redraw the district to include all of Forsyth county and cut out heavily Republican counties like Wilkes and Iredell like they did up until the early 1990s, Foxx would likely be toast. 

[Sam Spade]

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in. 

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

I can't find anything on PPP's website about it.

The only thing I can find is a Democracy Corps poll of NC back in September which did 100 people per CD (roughly) and had her up 2.  I consider that garbage.

http://www.carolinapoliticsonline.com/2008/09/06/democracy-corps-nc-congressional-polling-results/

[MarkWarner08]

I didn't realize that poll had such a small sample size. With an MoE that astronomically high, it's probably safe to toss it in the trash.

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been updated with one week out.

In case you don't notice, I did away with the toss-up/lean distinction because I was starting to find it annoying.

I will be keeping it for the House.

Stevens should be dead, but he's in Likely D here because I want at least one legitimate poll (I know I'll have to take Ivan Moore) to tell me this, just in case Alaska doesn't decide to give the F-U to everyone.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Senate has been updated with one week out.

In case you don't notice, I did away with the toss-up/lean distinction because I was starting to find it annoying.

I will be keeping it for the House.

Stevens should be dead, but he's in Likely D here because I want at least one legitimate poll (I know I'll have to take Ivan Moore) to tell me this, just in case Alaska doesn't decide to give the F-U to everyone.

Kos already has R2000 doing an Alaska poll, if that's acceptable.

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been updated with one week out.

In case you don't notice, I did away with the toss-up/lean distinction because I was starting to find it annoying.

I will be keeping it for the House.

Stevens should be dead, but he's in Likely D here because I want at least one legitimate poll (I know I'll have to take Ivan Moore) to tell me this, just in case Alaska doesn't decide to give the F-U to everyone.

Kos already has R2000 doing an Alaska poll, if that's acceptable.

Yea, that's ok.

I should add that I'm little nervous about putting Colorado in Safe, because I suspect it'll be closer on election day than the polls presently are, but since the committees have pulled out and I can't see a way Schaffer actually wins, I'll stick it there.  You may see me put this in Likely however, if I get actually nervous.

[Gravis Marketing]

Would it be correct to read this as predicting a D net pick-up of 13 seats in the House, with a range of 5 either way? So 8-18?

[Sam Spade]

Would it be correct to read this as predicting a D net pick-up of 13 seats in the House, with a range of 5 either way? So 8-18?

It'll be higher than that number, brittain.  I haven't updated the list just quite yet - probably today.

But ya, you're reading it right.  When I get to day before election day, I'll start to make my hard call.

[Torie]

Would it be correct to read this as predicting a D net pick-up of 13 seats in the House, with a range of 5 either way? So 8-18?

It'll be higher than that number, brittain.  I haven't updated the list just quite yet - probably today.

But ya, you're reading it right.  When I get to day before election day, I'll start to make my hard call.

You should offer some commentary for the tight races. If the Dootlittle seat goes Dem, it is going to be a 23 seat Dem pickup. I picked that number out of thin air, but it seems right.

[Sam Spade]

Would it be correct to read this as predicting a D net pick-up of 13 seats in the House, with a range of 5 either way? So 8-18?

It'll be higher than that number, brittain.  I haven't updated the list just quite yet - probably today.

But ya, you're reading it right.  When I get to day before election day, I'll start to make my hard call.

You should offer some commentary for the tight races. If the Dootlittle seat goes Dem, it is going to be a 23 seat Dem pickup. I picked that number out of thin air, but it seems right.

In some of these tight races, it's tough to make really accurate commentary.  I'm not on the ground.

[Torie]

Well, just explain why you call them tight, whether it be polls, money, ads, the district, tea leaves, or a random CD generator. 

[Sam Spade]

Well, just explain why you call them tight, whether it be polls, money, ads, the district, tea leaves, or a random CD generator. 

Well, I can make a wild guess that if the committees are spending heavy money someplace, it's reasonably competitive.

[Sam Spade]

Changes + final predictions probably tomorrow, maybe tonight.

[Sam Spade]

FINAL PREDICTIONS

SENATE 2008 (56 Democrats, 42 Republicans, 2 Independents)
WINNER IN RED

Alabama: Figures (D) 35, Sessions (R) 65 GOP HOLD
Alaska: Begich (D) 50, Stevens (R) 45, Others 5 DEM PICKUP
Arkansas: Pryor (D) 92, Others 8 DEM HOLD
Colorado*: Udall (D) 53, Schaffer 45, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
Delaware: Biden (D) 65, O'Connell (R) 35 DEM HOLD
Georgia: Martin (D) 46, Chambliss (R) 49, Others 5 SENT TO RUNOFF (GOP HOLD)
Idaho*: LaRocco (D) 39, Risch (R) 58, Others 3 GOP HOLD (humor prediction)
Illinois: Durbin (D) 63, Sauerberg (R) 35, Others 2 DEM HOLD
Iowa: Harkin (D) 59, Reed (R) 41 DEM HOLD
Kansas: Slattery (D) 38, Roberts (R) 59, Others 3 GOP HOLD
Kentucky: Lunsford (D) 47, McConnell 53 GOP HOLD
Louisiana:Landrieu (D) 53, Kennedy 46, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Maine: Allen (D) 43, Collins (R) 57 GOP HOLD
Massachusetts: Kerry (D) 61, Beatty (R) 36, Others 3 DEM HOLD
Michigan: Levin (D) 60, Hoogendyk (R) 38, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Minnesota: Franken (D) 40, Coleman (R) 43, Barkley (I) 16, Others 1 GOP HOLD
Mississippi - A: Fleming (D) 37, Cochran (R) 63 GOP HOLD
Mississippi - B: Musgrove (D) 46, Wicker (R) 54 GOP HOLD
Montana: Baucus (D) 65, Kelleher (R) 33, Others 2 DEM HOLD
Nebraska*: Kleeb (D) 36, Johanns (R) 61, Others 3 GOP HOLD
New Hampshire: Shaheen (D) 52, Sununu (R) 47, Others 1 DEM PICKUP
New Jersey: Lautenberg (D) 55, Zimmer (R) 43, Others 2 DEM HOLD
New Mexico*: Udall (D) 56, Pearce (R) 43, Others 1 DEM PICKUP
North Carolina: Hagan (D) 51, Dole (R) 47, Others 2 DEM PICKUP
Oklahoma: Rice 39 (D), Inhofe (R) 58, Others 3 GOP HOLD
Oregon: Merkley (D) 50, Smith (R) 45, Others 5 DEM PICKUP
Rhode Island: Reed (D) 78, Tingle (R) 22 DEM HOLD
South Carolina: Conley (D) 43, Graham (R) 57 GOP HOLD
South Dakota: Johnson (D) 59, Dykstra (R) 40, Others 1 DEM HOLD
Tennessee: Tuke (D) 37, Alexander (R) 61, Others 2 GOP HOLD
Texas: Noriega (D) 43, Cornyn (R) 55, Others 2 GOP HOLD
Virginia*: Warner (D) 59, Gilmore (R) 38, Other 3 DEM PICKUP
West Virginia: Rockefeller (D) 64, Wolfe (R) 36 DEM HOLD
Wyoming - A: Rothfuss (D) 31, Enzi (R) 69 GOP HOLD
Wyoming - B: Carter (D) 34, Barrasso (R) 66 GOP HOLD

HOUSE 2008 261 Democrats, 174 Republicans (29 Dem Pickups, 4 GOP Pickups)

Likely DEM PICKUP
AK-AL
AZ-01*
CA-04*
CO-04
CT-04
FL-08
FL-24
FL-25
ID-01
IL-10
IL-11*
IN-03
MI-07
MI-09
MN-06
NC-08
NE-02
NJ-03*
NM-01*
NM-02*
NV-03
NY-13*
NY-25*
NY-29
OH-15*
OH-16*
PA-03
VA-05
VA-11*

GOP PICKUP
FL-16
KS-02
PA-11
TX-22

DEM HOLDS (up to 20 seats)
AL-05*
AZ-05
AZ-08
GA-08
IN-09
KS-03
KY-03
LA-06
MS-01
NH-01
NY-20
PA-04
PA-10
PA-12
TX-23
WI-08

GOP HOLDS (up to 60 races)
AZ-03*
CA-03
CA-46
CA-50
FL-13
FL-21
IA-04
IL-06
IL-18*
KY-02*
LA-04* (runoff)
MD-01*
MN-03*
MO-06
MO-09*
NJ-05
NJ-07*
NV-02
NY-26
OH-01
OH-02
PA-06
PA-15
SC-01
TX-07
TX-10
VA-02
VA-10
WA-08
WV-02
WY-AL

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

[MarkWarner08]

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

I did finish Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine, and I could probably fill in Oregon if I wanted to.  The rest are difficult.

[MarkWarner08]

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

I did finish Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine, and I could probably fill in Oregon if I wanted to.  The rest are difficult.

Feel free to fill in Oregon. Merkley has closed with positive ads, while Smith is running only negative ads that play on the state's regional divide. The polling uniformly shows Smith  below 45% and Brownlow is hurting him with his base.

CO is also an easy call now.

I can see why you're still debating AK, NH, NC, MN, GA.

[Sam Spade]

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

I did finish Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine, and I could probably fill in Oregon if I wanted to.  The rest are difficult.

Feel free to fill in Oregon. Merkley has closed with positive ads, while Smith is running only negative ads that play on the state's regional divide. The polling uniformly shows Smith  below 45% and Brownlow is hurting him with his base.

CO is also an easy call now.

I can see why you're still debating AK, NH, NC, MN, GA.

The problem in Colorado is not the call.  It's the margin.

[MarkWarner08]

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

I did finish Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine, and I could probably fill in Oregon if I wanted to.  The rest are difficult.

Feel free to fill in Oregon. Merkley has closed with positive ads, while Smith is running only negative ads that play on the state's regional divide. The polling uniformly shows Smith  below 45% and Brownlow is hurting him with his base.

CO is also an easy call now.

I can see why you're still debating AK, NH, NC, MN, GA.

The problem in Colorado is not the call.  It's the margin.

Ah...  Plaudits to you for guessing the margins. I  (try to) pick the winners, not the margins.