Opinion of the preceding poster's first post

[Lief]

Hehe, bull fudge.

Probably Hillary, though if John Edwards maintains his lead in Iowa, he can't be underestimated. And Richardson is doing well, steadily rising in Iowa and New Hampshire. I expect that the polls will become much closer as we go past Labor Day into October, November and December.

[Tender Branson]

Everybody underestimated Obama ...

I THINK Hillary will win the nomination because of her base and money, but i HOPE Mark Warner will do so.

[Rin-chan]

How wrong you were   It's not a bad first post.

Man, my first post is loooonnnngggg!!!!  I also can quote it normally for some reason lol  Here it is, though:

   
Re: Republicans and Democrats. Was there ever a point...
« Reply #28 on: June 14, 2005, 03:05:28 pm »   
Yeah... there definately was...  I think it was in the last few weeks of the election...

All the liberals in my school were wearing anti-Bush things and saying how much they hated him.  We even had a mock election in our school... Bush won by a landslide...  but I sincerely thought Kerry would win that election.

In the real election, I thought the same thing.  I saw more Kerry-Edwards bumpers stickers on cars and alot more Kerry-Edwards signs.  However, a guy who is a member of this board  as well as being my BESTEST best friend and decided that Bush was definately going to win (he doesn't want to be revealed yet... for some strange reason...).  It calmed my fears.

And we, obviously, were right!

Oh, and hello, everyone!  I'm a newbie here!!  YAY!!  Don't worry, I'm not here to ruin your forum.

Rin-chan

Rin-chan

[Hashemite]

You didn't change

I'm French and I'm going to vote Sarkozy. I just thing Segolene Royale does not have the suitable experience to be President just yet- maybe in a couple years. Chevenement has decided to rally Segolene BTW.

WTF

[Tik]

Even if that post were utterly ridiculous I wouldn't be able to tell you why myself. You voted for a winner, I guess. Good on you. Never heard of the rest of them and am content to remain ignorant.

My first post marks a turning point in the history of political thought:

WTF is with wingings font I mean its like they have an symbols for EVERYTHING but except for not having a zooming in zooming out I mean skiing rowboat and Allah where is the justice Micro$$$$$oft BLOODING WINDINGS

sorry this is my first post if the wrong forum please extrampolate to another forum I'm so sorry this is my first new here

[Platypus]

Troll.

The thread's been locked, so i couldn't quote it properly, but in all its glory here's my first post...groan.

I'm saying Republicans 271-267 Democrats

DEMOCRAT

Hawaii
Washington
Oregon
California
New Mexico
Iowa
Wisconsin
Louisiana
Mississippi
New York
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Michigan
Illinois
Kentucky (?)
West Virginia
DC
Virginia
South Carolina
Maryland
Delaware

REPUBLICAN

Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Utah
Nevada
Idaho
Wyoming
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Arkansas
Misouri
Minnesota (?)
Alabama
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Ohio
Indiana
New Jersey

Bit controvertial, I know, but definently possible.

Change Kentucky to Republican and they win 279 to 259

Change Minnesota to Democrat and they win 277 to 261

...back in November, 2003.

[Senator Ben]

Interesting prediction.

California was usually a nominal Republican state, unless Nixon or Reagan was on the ticket.  After 1988, when Reagan was still important, California became a soldily Democratic state.

[dialectical fetishist]

True.

Thomas Dewey, due to me being opposed to anything longer than two terms by a US president... here in the UK, we have no term limits which explains why we had Thatcher for 10 years -_-

[realisticidealist]

You were in the minority then, and you still are now.

I like the french geoelections site as much as the next person, but I've always been annoyed by the fact that the maps are incredibly small, and that they don't distinguish between >40% and >30% or less. So I decided to do something about it. I made my own set of maps for every election from 1840 to now using Dave's color scheme. I made a very simple powerpoint with all the maps on it that you can download at http://www.mediafire.com/?tzumzzzox2l.

Since there are so many individual maps, I decided to not post the individual maps (much bigger than in the powerpoint), though I will post individual maps upon request.

One note: I made all of these by hand (I have no life, apparently), so there is a small chance that a county here or there might be the wrong shade. However, the vast, vast majority of them are accurate. Also, I used the same template for every map (minus Alaska), so the old county boundaries are not reflected exactly. However, the general counties that made up the old ones are used in their stead.

Have fun.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Lack of enough gradations in a map has always annoyed me too. Good job taking that sort of initiative, though.

     McCain can definitely still win. It's just not likely.

     Needless to say, the battle will probably be won & lost out West. Missouri, Ohio, & Virginia are all in danger of flipping, but McCain would be foolish to concentrate there.

     Unless something drastic happens, he will need to work hard to hold Colorado, Nevada, & New Mexico. But if he doesn't, then he faces an even more difficult uphill battle, needing Michigan or Pennsylvania.

[Hashemite]

Aha. When you were a Republican. I remember that.

I'm French and I'm going to vote Sarkozy. I just thing Segolene Royale does not have the suitable experience to be President just yet- maybe in a couple years. Chevenement has decided to rally Segolene BTW.

I can't believe I said that.

[Senator Ben]

That doesn't sound like you at all

California was usually a nominal Republican state, unless Nixon or Reagan was on the ticket.  After 1988, when Reagan was still important, California became a soldily Democratic state.

[NOVA Green]

Basically true, although the shift towards being a Democratic state at the Presidential level has some major causes other than just the end of Republicans nominating Presidential candidates from the state.

My first post after nine months or so of lurking:

Eastern Oregon voters vote like the rag-tag bunch of libertarian Democrats, small-town Democrats, DIROs and displaced left-wingers they aer.  Obama wins, although not overwhelmingly, and Clinton does well in some counties.  The DIRO, anti-Clinton, racist, spite and rural populist votes effectively cancel each other out and Obama carries the district easily on the shoulders of Bend, Hood River and a few other areas of strong performance, probably in the northeast.

I expect OR-2 to go for Clinton by 55-45, mainly because of Jackson / Josephine counties are former timber producing areas with high numbers of retirees where there are still positive memories of Bill Clinton's compromise on logging in the early '90s. Yes Bend (Deschutes Co.) can be expected to go for Obama by a decent margin, yet how many Republicans changed their registration in this area to vote in the Democratic primary? Hood river is too small to be especially significant, although Obama may be able to do well in La Grande (Union Co.) home to  the largest college in Eastern Oregon, and he is in Pendleton tonight, although I am not sure how well his message will play in that area.

One factor to consider is the large number of latinos in areas like Harney and Malheur counties, who account for a significant percentage of the Democratic vote in overwhelmingly Republican counties. This is also true for many of these other counties under discussion. I suspect Obama will do better with the Latino vote in Western Oregon (Marion and Washington counties spring to mind) than in these areas East of the cascades.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Heh. Informational.

Er.. Write In: Jung

Actually I'd go with Nietzsche now.

[Smid]

Don't know enough about either of them to comment about your decision, although from all that I've heard, I don't like either and would write in someone like you did.

With Obama as the Democrat presidential candidate, he really needs a southern running mate. In the past 30 years, the only successful Democratic candidates have been southerners (Carter, Clinton). I believe that Obama would need a southerner in order to bring some southern EC Votes into play.

[HappyWarrior]

Proved not to be true.  Unless you count Biden as a southerner. (DE was a slave state lol)

I think that the election would go to Clinton/Obama, if only because they feel dissaticfied with their choice in the last election.  Also, most people don't like Rudy any more than Hillary.  He's very easily angered and firey.  Most people will probably like Hillary more as the time goes on, she's extremely personable even if she's just as ambitious.  Obama will make her even more likable too.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Predicting that Obama would be on the ticket that early is impressive, even if you put him on the wrong half of the ticket.

     McCain can definitely still win. It's just not likely.

     Needless to say, the battle will probably be won & lost out West. Missouri, Ohio, & Virginia are all in danger of flipping, but McCain would be foolish to concentrate there.

     Unless something drastic happens, he will need to work hard to hold Colorado, Nevada, & New Mexico. But if he doesn't, then he faces an even more difficult uphill battle, needing Michigan or Pennsylvania.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

A pretty reasonable assesment for that time.

Hmmm...this is interesting.

I would say that Colorado and Nevada would pretty much be on the average this election. Sure, there are conservative democrats, but there are also libertarian republicans in Colorado. I mean Pueblo county went for Kerry, but voted almost unianomously to not recognize homosexuals. Yet, Prop I went within almost 5 points...the point is that those votes had to be made up somehow.

Nevada seems pretty stubborn, but with all the new affection being placed on that state and with the growth of unions, this might be the year it finally flips.

Colorado has a powerful and well-trained neo-conservative grass root system made of both foreign policy neo-conservatives (real neo-conservatism) in the Air Force and domestic neo-conservatives run by Dr. Dobson. Also, the only way that the democrats have been succesful in 2004 and 2006 was the avoidance of an all out confrontation by nominating a senatorial candidate that speaks hard on crime and a gubertorial candidate that believed that abortion is a crime (though he does hold a broad range of exceptions and would probably go along with the law the Colorado originally had before Roe which basically dealt with abortion on a case by case basis).  However, solid democrats control the state legistlature with no sign of losing and the suburbs of Denver elected to have a loyal democratic congressman in 2006.  Also, in the last presidential election, the exit polls showed a 9 point difference between dems and GOP in registration, now that difference is constitently around 6 points per SURVEY USA. With this 3 point margin, perhaps Colorado will vote around the national average this time.

[GMantis]

Strange, most people thought at the time that Colorado was more democratic than Nevada.

Tarja Halonen

[N.i.K.]

Certainly an intresting first post...
My first post is lame.

Newt Gingrich Maybe? I've heard he's considering a run in 2012.

Anyway, I dug this post up and found it intresting:

Depends on what year.  I think John Warner would probably win, but he is rather old.  I would support John Warner.