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Author Topic: Would Arkansas vote for Democrats in 2008?  (Read 7098 times)
opebo
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« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2007, 01:29:17 pm »
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...The Interior West is an electoral mirage--there is simply too stong of a strain of militant libertarianism for it to ever be reliably supportive of true leftist Democratic candidates.

When have we ever seen a 'true leftist' Democratic candidate??  Certainly none on the national level, and no more than a handful in the Senate's history.
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MAS117
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2007, 04:20:09 pm »
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Depending on the candidate I think it is possible for AR to go blue in the election.
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jfern
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2007, 04:21:05 pm »
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Clinton would win it.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2007, 07:11:11 pm »
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I fully expect Hillary to win Arkansas in 2008.  Arkansas is a much more Democratic state than people think, it's the bluest state in the South.

Can't be bluer than Florida or Virginia. Clinton will Sweep VA,MO,OH,CO,NM,NV,IA before Arkansas. Even if she is more popular in AR than those other places where she gets beat bad or ties right now. The GOP will spend so much time on the defensive, that those first tier states will go unmanned.

You are assuming that the 2008 national average numbers will be the same as 2004 numbers, only shifting left enough so that those 7 states you mentioned would go blue before Arkansas.

This is probably not going to be the case entirely although I do agree that NM, IA, OH, and NV would likely flip before AR just because those four are already swing states. I would argue that Hillary's leftist economic policies would cost her CO, VA, FL, and MO.

I think the maximum Hillary can achieve would be to win NM, IA, NV, and OH in that order followed by AR, bringing her total to 295 electoral votes. No, she will not win in a landslide, because there are too many out there who would not vote for a woman
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2007, 07:15:20 pm »
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No, she will not win in a landslide, because there are too many out there who would not vote for a woman

No, no. There's barely any. Those you'd expect to would never vote for a Democrat anyway. But how many would seriously vote for Russ Feingold over Marilyn Musgrave or Michele Bachmann?
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jokerman
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« Reply #30 on: October 09, 2007, 06:57:12 pm »
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No, she will not win in a landslide, because there are too many out there who would not vote for a woman
I disagree with this statement.  Few people who would vote Democrat under any reasonable circumstances would not vote for Clinton because she's a woman.
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« Reply #31 on: October 09, 2007, 09:05:55 pm »
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No. Warner or Bayh could of though.
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« Reply #32 on: October 21, 2007, 01:58:13 am »
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If Hillary Clinton is the nominee Arkansas could definitely go Democratic in 2008.  In fact I would put the odds at better than 50%.  Bill said that if Hillary gets the nomination he considers it a personal mission to put Arkansas back in the Democratic column.  If Edwards or Obama gets the nomination, probably not.  Arkansas has a Democratic Governor and 2 Democratic Senators.  This will definitely help the Democratic Presidential nominee.
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« Reply #33 on: October 21, 2007, 05:51:13 pm »
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No, she will not win in a landslide, because there are too many out there who would not vote for a woman

No, no. There's barely any. Those you'd expect to would never vote for a Democrat anyway. But how many would seriously vote for Russ Feingold over Marilyn Musgrave or Michele Bachmann?
Bachmann! *barfs* My least favorite congressman...
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #34 on: October 21, 2007, 06:10:54 pm »
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I think Hillary would have a better than 50-50 shot at winning Arkansas. Huckabee on the Republican ticket wouldn't be a factor -- the VP candidate doesn't do a whit to help win their home state. Plus the Republican Party in Arkansas isn't exactly what you would call strong. If nothing else, it will be a battleground state -- especially since it should be cheap to advertise in.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #35 on: October 21, 2007, 06:12:53 pm »
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Probably not, but if Giuliani was nominated, it could - because the Reps could be split by a social conservative.
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2007, 12:29:52 am »
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Probably not, but if Giuliani was nominated, it could - because the Reps could be split by a social conservative.

Hillary would be strong here due to her ties to the state, plus Bill would campaign here. Add to that the weak republican party and the fact that Giuliani and Romney are both terrible fits for the state. Also, the AR Republican party is pretty weak. Bush was helped by the fact that he was from a neighboring state and that neither Gore nor Kerry put any substantial effort into AR.
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2007, 12:41:39 am »
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Depending on the candidate I think it is possible for AR to go blue in the election.

If Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Nomination, it's a certain chance that it'll vote for the Democrats.
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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2007, 07:09:03 pm »
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The former First Lady of Arkansas against the former Mayor of New York. Arkansas'll take the First Lady.
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« Reply #39 on: November 05, 2007, 02:04:42 pm »
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I believe Arkansas will vote for Hillary, mainly because of Bill, however, I don't think it would remain democratic in the future.

I hope it will.
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« Reply #40 on: November 21, 2007, 12:59:25 am »
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Rudy won't beat Hillary in Arkansas.  McCain would have a shot.
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jfern
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« Reply #41 on: November 21, 2007, 01:02:17 am »
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While Clinton is not the best Democrat for winning the general election nation-wide, she would easily win Arkansas against every Republican except for Huckabee.
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Smash255
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« Reply #42 on: November 21, 2007, 01:56:50 am »
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While polls this far out can always be questionable the fact she is absolutely demolishing the GOP candidates right now speaks volumes.
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agcatter
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« Reply #43 on: November 21, 2007, 10:00:26 am »
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As of now, I'd say Arkansas is one of those red states that goes to Hillary in the next election.  She has a genuine home state advantage and that is one of the perks in nominating her.  Add a sure 5 electors to the Dems.  Huckabee could be competitive there sure - but where else would he win outside of the redest of red states?
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« Reply #44 on: November 27, 2007, 11:29:46 pm »
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Depending on the candidate I think it is possible for AR to go blue in the election.

If Hillary Clinton won the Democratic Nomination, it's a certain chance that it'll vote for the Democrats.

Of course, but I still say she won't get it (remember, I said in early 2006 that Lieberman would be an indy, not a Dem, and you all mocked me and laughed).
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« Reply #45 on: November 29, 2007, 11:02:23 pm »
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Clinton will win it by 5%
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Cubby
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« Reply #46 on: November 30, 2007, 03:27:35 am »
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Hillary will win Arkansas if she is the nominee

What I'm wondering is if Obama could win Arkansas if he's the nominee, and I'd have to say no at this point. Only if the GOP nominee was Romney.
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« Reply #47 on: December 05, 2007, 02:34:45 am »
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Hillary will win Arkansas if she is the nominee

What I'm wondering is if Obama could win Arkansas if he's the nominee, and I'd have to say no at this point. Only if the GOP nominee was Romney.

that's what i think will hurt romney...he essentially makes the south a tossup. once his weakness in national polling is revealed, he wont be nominated.


Hillary will carry Arkansas if she wins the nomination. Bill will campaign hard in the south to make her competitive here.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #48 on: December 08, 2007, 02:36:13 am »
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She won't win Arkansas if Huckabee is the nominee
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« Reply #49 on: December 08, 2007, 04:31:25 pm »
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Hillary will win Arkansas if she is the nominee

What I'm wondering is if Obama could win Arkansas if he's the nominee, and I'd have to say no at this point. Only if the GOP nominee was Romney.

that's what i think will hurt romney...he essentially makes the south a tossup. once his weakness in national polling is revealed, he wont be nominated.


Hillary will carry Arkansas if she wins the nomination. Bill will campaign hard in the south to make her competitive here.

Unless he picks Huck or Purdue, but Purdue would hurt him in AL and FL w/ all the drought crap.
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