Open seat House elections 2008: Which will be the most competetive?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Of the four, so far, Republicans retiring from the House in 2008 - which of their seats do the Democrats have the best chance of picking up?  I think OH-15 is the obvious top target, but how would you rank the other seats?  My ranking:

1. OH-15 (Bush 50%, Kerry 50%)
2. IL-14 (Bush 55%, Kerry 44%)
3. IL-18 (Bush 58%, Kerry 42%)
4. MS-3 (Bush 65%, Kerry 34%)

[Democratic Hawk]

OH-15

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Of the four, so far, Republicans retiring from the House in 2008 - which of their seats do the Democrats have the best chance of picking up?  I think OH-15 is the obvious top target, but how would you rank the other seats?  My ranking:

1. OH-15 (Bush 50%, Kerry 50%)
2. IL-14 (Bush 55%, Kerry 44%)
3. IL-18 (Bush 58%, Kerry 42%)
4. MS-3 (Bush 65%, Kerry 34%)

There are more than just four GOP retirements.  CA-52 is also an open seat (R+9), though the leading candidate is Duncan Hunter's kid.

[I voted OH-15, of course.]

[Adlai Stevenson]

Of the four, so far, Republicans retiring from the House in 2008 - which of their seats do the Democrats have the best chance of picking up?  I think OH-15 is the obvious top target, but how would you rank the other seats?  My ranking:

1. OH-15 (Bush 50%, Kerry 50%)
2. IL-14 (Bush 55%, Kerry 44%)
3. IL-18 (Bush 58%, Kerry 42%)
4. MS-3 (Bush 65%, Kerry 34%)

There are more than just four GOP retirements.  CA-52 is also an open seat (R+9), though the leading candidate is Duncan Hunter's kid.

[I voted OH-15, of course.]

Yeah I know.  I did forget CA-52, however, I doubt that its inclusion in this poll would vastly alter the results. 

[Jaggerjack]

Of the four, so far, Republicans retiring from the House in 2008 - which of their seats do the Democrats have the best chance of picking up?  I think OH-15 is the obvious top target, but how would you rank the other seats?  My ranking:

1. OH-15 (Bush 50%, Kerry 50%)
2. IL-14 (Bush 55%, Kerry 44%)
3. IL-18 (Bush 58%, Kerry 42%)
4. MS-3 (Bush 65%, Kerry 34%)

There are more than just four GOP retirements.  CA-52 is also an open seat (R+9), though the leading candidate is Duncan Hunter's kid.

[I voted OH-15, of course.]

Yeah I know.  I did forget CA-52, however, I doubt that its inclusion in this poll would vastly alter the results. 

Indeed; we have no shot in suburban San Diego.

And as of this poll, there's quite an obvious winner.

[MarkWarner08]

Of the four, so far, Republicans retiring from the House in 2008 - which of their seats do the Democrats have the best chance of picking up?  I think OH-15 is the obvious top target, but how would you rank the other seats?  My ranking:

1. OH-15 (Bush 50%, Kerry 50%)
2. IL-14 (Bush 55%, Kerry 44%)
3. IL-18 (Bush 58%, Kerry 42%)
4. MS-3 (Bush 65%, Kerry 34%)

Agreed. I'd put OH-15 in Toss-up/Slight Democratic lean category, with the potential to turn out like CO-07 and IA-01 did last cycle. IL-14 could also go Democratic because of the strength of Democrat Bill Foster, a millionaire scientist, who's combination of personal resources, moderate issue positions and good campaign team could help him pull off an upset. IL-18 looks like a strong GOP hold because of Democratic recruiting failures and MS-03 is a lock for the GOP unless Gene Taylor clones himself.

[7,052,770]

As much as I hope for MS-3, it's gotta be OH-15.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As much as I hope for MS-3, it's gotta be OH-15.

So that MS-03 vote wasn't you?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

As much as I hope for MS-3, it's gotta be OH-15.

So that MS-03 vote wasn't you?

That was what I thought exactly as I read the post

[Padfoot]

What are those two MS-03 voters smoking?

[Keystone Phil]

OH 15

MS 3 better not be tough.

[7,052,770]

MS 3 better not be tough.

It better BE tough.

[memphis]

MS-3 is going to be a cakewalk for the Republicans. The real race will be in the Republican primary. There's a reason the Dems didn't even bother to contest the seat in 2006 and 2004. Some seats really are solid locks for one party and this is one of them.

[AkSaber]

OH-15, definitely.

For the next few years, every campaign in Ohio will be a highly-contested shootout.

[memphis]

OH-15, definitely.

For the next few years, every campaign in Ohio will be a highly-contested shootout.

While OH-15 will be close, plenty of Ohio races will not be. OH-8 will remain ultra-Republican and OH-11 will remain solidly Democratic. Even statewide races need not be close. Stirickland won in 2006 by 23 points and Brown won by 12.

[7,052,770]

MS-3 is going to be a cakewalk for the Republicans. The real race will be in the Republican primary. There's a reason the Dems didn't even bother to contest the seat in 2006 and 2004. Some seats really are solid locks for one party and this is one of them.

You are probably correct, however there are several prominent Democrats who live in the 3rd district, and I just hope we run one of them and make the GOP sweat just a little.

The 3rd is no more Republican than the 4th district, which has a Democratic representative, so that is proof that it is *possible* for the right Democrat to win here.  I'm not holding my breath, but the Democrats don't need to completely write off the seat just yet.