Redistricting...Ireland?

[minionofmidas]

The local Conservative club is outside my hostel as a matter of fact, it seems to be sponsored by some bitter or others (are all political party clubs in the UK sponspored by Alcohol.. It was like that in Lincoln too iirc.)

Labour Clubs, Conservative Clubs and so on don't usually have all that much to do with the political parties themselves, at least not directly.
One old joke is that more people in South Wales drink in Conservative Clubs than vote Tory.

Ah, so that was probably just a joke then. Because I was told that in 2001, in one of those industrial seats that once had a Tory vote (not in Wales though. I forgot where.) the Tories polled fewer votes than their constituency party has members. And that this was due in part to the Conservative Club being seen as a place to decently drink in, away from pub fights etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Because I was told that in 2001, in one of those industrial seats that once had a Tory vote (not in Wales though. I forgot where.) the Tories polled fewer votes than their constituency party has members. And that this was due in part to the Conservative Club being seen as a place to decently drink in, away from pub fights etc.

One of the Liverpool seats maybe? Walton and West Derby (where the Tories are, at best, a fringe party these days) were both Tory until 1964 and had large Tory votes until the 1980's. Could also be Manchester Blackley (ditto. Amusingly the Crumpsall ward (currently the personal fiefdom of the Labour leader of the City Council) was a safe Tory ward until the mid '80's or so).

In Wales another factor would be the traditional alliance between the Tories and the brewers (meaning that the beer in the Conservative Club's was better than elsewhere).
Thinking along those lines a bit more, the Tories (in Wales at least) used to hold their meetings in pubs, while the Liberals held theirs in Chapels.

[minionofmidas]

In Wales another factor would be the traditional alliance between the Tories and the brewers (meaning that the beer in the Conservative Club's was better than elsewhere).

LOL!

It could have been Blackley.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Okay then, I imagine in this scenario that there are two nationalist parties as I already said.. I'll call the populist Catholic-nationalist one Clann na nGael (The Irish family) because that's the first thing which came into my head. The other is the Automonist but pro-Union Irish Parliamentary party fairly economically conservative though with a growing social liberal wing. The entire modern Republic is pretty much divided by these two.. though CnaG do not take up their seats at Westminster. The labour party have some enclaves of support in Dublin and South Lenister - but doesn't even bother running candidates in the West. Until 1997 labour would not have a seat in the entire country since at least 1979 (if not the 1950s) outside of maybe one or two in Dublin. In the north labour tend to do best in the more non-sectarian areas.. where the modern Alliance and SDLP vote is concentrated (Btw Al, any maps of ex-NILP support any chance it would help).
The Tories would be very strong in the north taking the whole unionist vote.. though more fundamentalist protestants like a noteworthy minister from North Antrim Dr I. Paisley occasionally stir problems.. especially when there is no majority in Westminster and the goverment is dependant on Irish votes. In the south, the Tories would pretty non-existant and would have no chance of winning seats outside of maybe one or two seats in South Dublin and then only in good years (Could see MacMillian doing well in Ireland for some reason... but the British Aristo factor would be outputting)

I'll start with Ulster and that is by far the easiest to do (here I'm imagining northern and southern politics don't branch off too much) and most has already been divided anyway..

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I actually have some maps of NILP and Catholic Socialist support already. I'll go and dig 'em up.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

ULSTER

North Antrim:
Includes: Current UK constituency of North Antrim
Analysis: In this scenario North Antrim would quite possibly be the strongest Tory seat in the whole of the United Kingdom (again, I'm imagining no Ultra-Protestant breakaway). Strong socially conservative views pre-dominate. Clann na Gael or Labour would probably come a very distant second.

Winner of 2005 General Election: Sammy Wilson (Conservative)

East Antrim:
Includes: Current UK constituency of East Antrim
Analysis: Again another stronghold for the conservatives though not as overwhelmingly as North Antrim given that it's less Agrarian and with slightly more catholics. The labour party might have some presence here around the Larne area. Neither nationalist party does particulary well here.

Winner of 2005 General Election: Roy Beggs (Conservative)

South Antrim:
Includes: Current UK constituency of South Antrim
Analysis: Again like the rest of Rural Antrim this is a Conservative-Unionist stronghold. Though with some Nationalist presence around the Belfast Suburbia which would vote for the IPP over CnaG. Another uncompetitive constituency.

Winner of 2005 General Election: David Burnside (Conservative)

West Belfast:
Includes: Current UK constituency of West Belfast.
Analysis: The reserve of Rural Antrim this would go heavily for my made-up party, Clan Na nGael with it's mix of Catholic working class Populism and Irish nationalism it wouldn't be too different from the modern Sinn Fein party, and this is one fit that description to the tee, better Gerry Adams home base and all. Labour, the IPP and the Tories fight for the spoils.

Winner of 2005 General Election: Alex Maskey (Clann na nGael)

East Belfast:
Includes: Current UK constituency of East Belfast
Analysis: An unusual constituency in that it would be fairly progressive (in areas; it's also one of the strongest for the Alliance Party in RL) but also strongly Unionist and thus may see a strong vote for the Labour Party, though whether it would be enough to take the seat is unlikely. The catholic community here tends to be more middle class and thus would vote for the IPP. The question here is whether dockworkers and labourers which once made up a good portion of this constituency would stick with the more pro-unionist option in the tories (and make it a safe tory seat) or follow the mainland and go with their more natural home in the Labour party, which would take a more moderate and autonomist view on Irish issues. Sadly as this is the north, I'll go with the former option.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Peter Robinson (Conservative)

North Belfast:
Includes: Current UK constituency of North Belfast
Analysis: Another strange one where the normal rules of UK politics would not apply, but much less predictable than East Belfast due to a substaniable Catholic vote, which has mainly moved in from other areas in recent times (this was once as Ultra-Unionist as the rest of Antrim). Also until recently the DUP did not even bother to run candidates here (but now hold the seat). Again things might depend on whether Labour can swing enough protestant votes around in this (mainly) working class constituency. They might just have been able to do it in 1997 and 2001 depending on how big Irish issues were in the campaign. 2005 is doubtful on the other hand. Catholics here would lean CnaG rather than IPP, this being one of the more sectarian areas of Northern Ireland

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Cecil Walker (Conservative)

South Belfast:
Includes: Current UK constituency of South Belfast
Analysis: This is a mainly middle class constituency (I stress mainly) and is also the location of Queens University. Until 2005 it was held by the Ulster Unionists when the SDLP took it with less than 33% of the vote due to the Unionist split, but still would have a strong Protestant majority. Ironically I could see New Labour (at least) doing quite well especially as I would see Tony Blair as having a moderate position on Irish issues which would appeal here - Until 2005 the DUP never ran any candidates, this being a fairly liberal-conservative area. In this history it goes labour in 1997 in a three way race with the Conservatives and the IPP. Local politics tends though to be more tory dominated.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: David Ervine (Labour) Upon whose death in 2007 is succeeded by Dawn Purvis (Labour) in a bye-election victory with less than 35% of the vote.

North Down:
Includes: Current UK constituency of North Down
Analysis: Similiar to rural Antrim, though with some Belfast suburbia. The main town here - Bangor - would be a Labour stronghold if in Britain but unlikely to be so here. This is currently the only seat held by the Ulster Unionist Party and is very Unionist leaning. For this reason, we have to stick with the tories.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Sylvia Hermon (Conservative)

Lagan Valley:
Includes: Current UK constituency of Lagan Valley
Analysis: See any other Rural Ulster seat so far (Though this contains Lisburn). Strongly Tory, unlikely to have a strong Labour vote and lacking in neccesary Nationalists for either CnaG or the IPP.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Jeffrey Robinson (Conservative)

Strangford:
Includes: Current UK constituency of Strangford
Analysis: Strong Unionist with an Independant streak which might do well for Labour in places like Ards, unfortunetly again it seems to be another Tory safehold.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: David McNarry (Conservative)

South Down:
Includes: Current UK constituency of South Down
Analysis: On the border with the current Republic with a strong Nationalist base - I imagine here Labour would sop up the Unionist vote (only about 25%) in many places instead of the Conservatives especially in 1997 and 2001, but may have reverted somewhat in 2005, this was the seat which once elected Enoch Powell after all - even though most of the ultra-unionist areas are now in Strangford. As a nationalist enclave it is more moderate and semi-rural and would probably go for the IPP perhaps due to the Euro issue (here the IPP would strongly pro-euro, the CnaG more divided - I doubt the EU would have had such an effect on the Irish economy as in RL - but of course that would mean different demographics, but let's ignore that anomaly.)

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Eddie McGrady (Irish Parliamentary Party)

------End of Ulster Part I------
So far: Tory: 8, IPP: 1, Lab: 1, CnaG: 1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The main map shows the highest percentage ever polled by the NILP in each constituency; in several cases this was the only time the NILP ever ran a candidate for the seat. The NILP had a lot of trouble finding candidates outside Belfast; especially in rural Catholic areas. The white areas are constituencies that the NILP never fought.
The Belfast inset shows the results of the 1962 elections. The NILP did not run candidates in Falls, Dock, Central, Shankill and Windsor. The first three were all held (and won by) Catholic Socialists of various different stripes, while Shankill was held by Desmond Boal (an economically left-wing Unionist who had voted with the NILP for a motion of censure of Unionist economic policy). The NILP never ran a candidate in Windsor for obvious reasons.

Further notes:

1. While the NILP was, fundamentally, a non-sectarian party, it's quite clear that most of its voters were working class Protestants and that class was a better predictor of its support patterns than liberal non-sectarian sentiment (that most of the party's voters eventually ended up voting DUP or PUP is fairly well documented and shouldn't be at all surprising).

2. The NILP was not the only Socialist party active in Northern Ireland at the time; various Catholic Socialists ran well in Belfast from the '40's onwards, and a hardline Unionist party (the Commonwealth Labour Party) broke away in the '40's and polled well in some strongly Protestant constituencies (over 40% in Ards for instance).
A mention should also be given to the Communists who, somewhat improbably, managed to poll a quarter of the vote in West Down in 1945.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Ehh.. Wow.

Btw Al what do you think of my work so far, as generally you're the one I go to with UK demographics\facts\predictions. Just curious.

I'll finish Ulster tomorrow, there's a bit of a problem with Cavan though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ehh.. Wow.

My reaction as well!

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I'll have a proper look now.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ULSTER

North Antrim:
Includes: Current UK constituency of North Antrim
Analysis: In this scenario North Antrim would quite possibly be the strongest Tory seat in the whole of the United Kingdom (again, I'm imagining no Ultra-Protestant breakaway). Strong socially conservative views pre-dominate. Clann na Gael or Labour would probably come a very distant second.

Winner of 2005 General Election: Sammy Wilson (Conservative)

Disagree; without the hyped-up "threat" of a Catholic takeover it's hard to see the uneasy alliance between the fundamentalists and the Unionist Party (ie; Tories) lasting for very long. I actually have a strong suspicion that this would (eventually) be a Labour seat; it's a very working class area and the traditional populist undercurrent here is as much anti-"Big House" Unionism as anti-Catholic. Would depend, more than most seats in Northern Ireland, on events since the '20's though.

Fascinating area, btw.

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Would eventually turn into a safe Labour seat (Larne obviously has a lot of Labour potential, but so do the north Belfast suburbs).

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A safe Tory seat early on, but would eventually have turned into a Labour/Tory marginal. Whether this would have happend in the '60's or the '80's is the interesting question here.

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Not sure about this one either; West Belfast was always surprisingly hostile to the old Nationalist Party, while various Socialist parties and factions always did well. Like North Antrim, much depends on "events", but remember; it did vote for Gerry Fitt for years.

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Would be a safe Labour seat (and as a shipbuilding constituency, likely since 1935). There is actually a large (by Northern Ireland standards...) middle class element to the seat (the far east of the seat), but not enough to cause Labour any problems. I suspect that the Tories would actually do extremely badly here (are you at all familier with the way voting patterns have changed in Liverpool since the War?)

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Another safe Labour seat, though likely since the '60's in this case (despite being more working class than East).

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Could well be Labour, but I actually think that's less likely than in the other three Belfast seats. Worth noting that the old Ulster Liberal Party broke double digits here in 1962.

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A Tory seat in all but very unusual circumstances methinks. O/c it should be noted that Bob McCartney was as much a Labour M.P as the SDLP's are, but his election (and re-election) was a total fluke.

It should be noted that a Tory polled 32% here in the '92 General Election.

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In terms of class and so on, this is very like South Antrim and its voting patterns would, probably, be quite alike.

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There are indicators that Labour could do well here (not least the 40% polled by Commonwealth Labour in Ards in the '40's), but there are also indications that it could be one of the Tories better seats as well (a Tory candidate polled 15% here in '92. Nowhere near North Down levels o/c, but much higher than anywhere else).

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Quite possible; this was one of the Nationalist Party's strongholds after all.

[Јas]

there's a bit of a problem with Cavan though.

It's always been like that.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

ULSTER part II

Upper Bann:
Constituency contains Portadown, Drumcree and other Sectarian flashpoints. Making this an unlikely Labour constituency. The divisions here would be between CnaG and the Tory-Unionists, with the latter in ascendancy.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: David Trimble (Conservative)

Newry and Armagh:
Consituency contains South Armagh, Newry and many nationalist strongholds with a declining Protestant vote. Used to be very strong for the SDLP but is now very much a Sinn Fein constituency, so alot would depend on 'events' from 1922 onwards to see whether it votes IPP or CnaG. Impossible to say otherwise.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Conor Murphy (Clann na nGael)

Fermanagh and South Tyrone:
Constituency contains County Fermanagh and Dungannon region of South Tyrone, this is the constituency where Bobby Sands was famously elected in 1981 while he was on hunger strike. But reverted back to the Ulster Unionists until 2001. Very, very split constituency and it's hard to see moderation winning out here. Events would be important but I imagine that here the anti-Tory feeling in the mainland would swing just enough votes to CnaG (it would also in other places o\c but not enough to lose the seat) for the nationalists to gain.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Gerry McHugh (Clann na nGael)

Mid Ulster:
Constituency contains Cookstown, East Tyrone and South Co. Derry. Tends to have a strong populist rural vote (it's currently Martin McGuinness's seat) which just leans toward the nationalists but again 'events' would the key here. Difficult constituency to judge and labour may just have such strength here. IPP would do well here too, this once being a strong location of the old Nationalist party. Just a shot in the dark guess here.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Francie Molloy (Clann na nGael)

West Tyrone:
Constituency contains Omagh, Strabane, West Co. Tyrone. Nationalist leaning constituency but with a strong independant streak which almost saw it elect a cross-community independent in 2005 running as a "hospital" candidate showing that perhaps bread and butter issues can trump in some areas of the north. The nationalist lean and the lack of a true Labour natural support base means that I have this going IPP.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Brid Rogers (Irish Parliamentary Party)

East Derry:
Constituency contains most of Co.Derry save the city and the tiny region contained in Mid-Ulster, includes the towns of Coleraine and Limavady. Strong Unionist bent - until recently a UUP stronghold suggesting that it would be a fairly safe Tory seat.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: David McClarty (Conservative)

Foyle:
Constituency contains the City of Derry and the surrounding area. Nationalist stronghold where the UUP have always done badly, gaining just 2.4% of the vote last time around (less than the Socialist enviormentalist party) currently an SDLP stronghold whose votes in this timeline would transfer somewhat being the IPP and labour. With most of SF's going to CnaG. Tends to like incumbents but in an open year is a three way battle between these parties.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Mark Durcan (Labour)

So in the North I've got:
Tories 10 CnaG 4 Labour 2 IPP 2

REPUBLICAN ULSTER
Monaghan-East Cavan:
Constituency contains Co. Monaghan, and the Eastern Cavan the line drawn between Cootehill and Ballyjamesduff which towns it includes, anywhere east of that line is in this constituency plus the region around Belturbet, north of the river.  Like alot of the border counties it has a traditionally strong nationalist vote, it's Sinn Fein's really only safe seat in the republic (vote based in Monaghan mostly) and still has a split where many of the county's protestants (not insubstianable, but not enough to get near victory here) vote for Fine Gael. The Labour party would pretty much not exist here and the Tories would be a pretty weak third in the battle between CnaG and IPP, which would lean with the Former.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Caoimhghin O Caolain (Clann na nGael)

Donegal North East:
Constituency contains modern Dail constituency of Donegal North East, Letterkenny, the Inishowen Pennisula, the Islands, most of the Donegal Gaeltacht and Milford. Electorate: 58,208. Donegal going to slightly overrepresented here, but this is the easiest (and laziest) way. Again a border region with a strong protestant minority though it's hard to tell whether or not the Protestants in the South would stay with the tories or not (many of them, especially outside South Dublin, had already left by 1880 after all.) Strong Irish speaking population (which often equates with Voting FF or SF) and Odd place in general, is more nationalist than Donegal South West, plus the Blaney family's success shows the level of pro-nationalist feeling here. Though in parts Pro-EU sentiment would probably drive a resurgence in IPP. Labour vote minimal (as it is in the Republic, any left-wing vote goes with SF)

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Niall Blaney (Clann na nGael)

Donegal South West:
Contains modern Dail constituency of Donegal South West. Electorate: 54,789 Similiar to Donegal North East but with a stronger Union and Labour votes (around the Killybegs area I imagine) also with slightly less Irish speakers - the area generally is split between Conservatives and Populists. But like with Donegal North East has a very strong Farmers' lobby and powerful agrarian interests, which actually may make this area somewhat like in certain respects, the South West of England. Would most certainly be a IPP-CnaG swing constituency. Answer is just a guess.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Dinny McGinley (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Ulster Overall (save West Cavan):
Conservatives 10
Clann na nGael 6
Irish Parliamentary Party 3
Labour 2

[afleitch]

Oh my. What have a I started! Seriously - Gully, Al, impressive stuff.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Something very strange happend to some of the posts in this thread; I did manage to save this one though:

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Boo! Maybe I want an argument

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Labour always had a similar position on Irish issues to the Liberals; that's the main reason why the word "eventually" crops up a lot in my comments on the Antrim seats.

But if all of Ireland had remained part of the U.K it's hard to see Labour ignoring Ireland (as it did in real life) for too long; it's certain that the NILP and Irish Labour parties would have merged into Labour (but I think there would have been some organisational independence; especially in around Belfast) and it's likely that the party would (eventually) target what is now Northern Ireland (the economy of which was based around textiles and shipbuilding) quite seriously.
Labour-in-Ireland's internal tensions could well be quite "fun".

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I think 1929 might have been too late a date to save the Tories in much of Northern Ireland; but it would be early enough to keep them in a stronger position than class would suggest for a few decades. The big question is why things would have started to fall apart for them; I think the '60's is the obvious decade, but I can't imagine a peacetime Greater Belfast reacting with anything other than utter hatred to Thatcherite economic policies, so a further fall in the '80's seems likely. O/c maybe the Tories would have an electoral pact with your NPP by then? (presuming that nothing happens to seriously inflame sectarian tensions o/c).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hey, what happened to earlier post. (Al quoted it, but it's vanished...?)

Of course the issue here is how Isolated Irish politics would become from the rest of the United Kingdom and how much local issues predominated, especially independence. But there are so many "what ifs" here. The Irish trade union movement in the south for example never really recovered from 1913 (and the later lose of Connolly too..) but if it remained the UK instead of the series of extremely conservative goverments we had post-independence.. The working class of Dublin after 1927 have always tended to vote for Fianna Fail, unless they are affiliated to a Union. Perhaps the only real Labour strongholds in the South would be the City of Limerick and Cobh (and Possibly Waterford Town too)

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It's Possible but unlikely, perhaps with McMillian and Heath as Tory leaders but not certainly not Thatcher.. I'd reckon the IPP would be very europhilic and would probably lean towards the Liberals (still) than either Labour or the conservatives. What happens in the 1980s with the SDP is difficult to say (Is there even an SDP in this scenario?) but I can't see Thatcher selling well anywhere in Ireland at all, except for mayble some enclaves in South East Dublin... but in the West her Prime Ministership would almost certainly bring back strong calls for independance.

Though in some areas no doubt the Tories and the IPP would be in alliance, especially in "The outer Pale" (Kildare, Meath, Wicklow...)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Another Two Constituencies - which happens to Split Provinces:

Upper Shannonside:
Constituency Includes all of Cavan (excluding the areas included in Monaghan-East Cavan), Co. Leitrim and North Co. Longford - everywhere north of Longford Town, Abbeylara, Granard and Edgesworthtown. One of the poorest and easily most Rural Irish constituencies - in a single member constituency this would be a hotbed for populism and dislike of the Elites of Dublin and London. General Clann na nGael tilt with IPP only winning in good years. British parties nowhere to be seen. Strong tendency towards incumbents

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Brendan Smith (Clann na nGael)

Longford & Roscommon:
Constituency Includes all of South Co. Longford including Longford Town and the Entire of Co. Roscommon. Fairly similiar to Upper Shannonside except crucially there would be more medium sized (by Irish standards) towns here which would expect lean IPP (Places like Roscommon Town and Boyle certainly would imo - these are both sufficiently middle class areas, actually Roscommon generally has a middle-class Townie and Rural backwater divide, though there is more "big Farmers" than in Leitrim..). Despite it's reputation as the Most Boring county in Ireland this actually a rather interesting politically and is known for mood swings, Roscommon never having returned all of it's sitting TDs in a single election. For this I put it as a very good "Irish marginal" between both Native parties. Again as with the rest of the West of the Shannon, neither British party is up to much.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Dennis Naughton (Irish Parliamentary Party)

So far:
Conservatives 10
CnaG 7
IPP 4
Labour 2

[Tetro Kornbluth]

LENISTER - Part I (The easy bit):

Westmeath:
Consituency Includes all of County Westmeath. Conservative towns like Athlone and Mullingar predominate this consituency, It's actually very hard to judge who exactly they would vote for, in Irish elections like alot of Ireland they tend to get person over party. (Strangely it was one of the strongest seats for Labour in the last election - but alot of that vote would have been personal for Willie Penrose.) But the Irish system of Patronage coupled with PR-STV suits incumbents. It isn't as backwater as the Shannon west region and isn't central enough to Dublin really to be truly Commuter belt.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Mary O' Rourke (Clann na nGael)

Laois:
Consituency Includes all of County Laois. County has gone under rapid changes with the expansion of the lower- Middle Class Dublin commuter belt especially around Portlaoise. Infrastructure is a major issue here and may suit parties who desire "bigger goverment" but overall is a fairly Conservative-Populist place which almost never votes outside FF-FG in Irish Elections. (And constantly elected this guy as a TD.) Tough Call but if the Lower-Middle class stick with Conservative Populism here than it leans Clan. Could see a Decent Tory vote though, with the right candidate

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Charlie Flanagan (Clann na nGael)

Offaly:
Constituency Includes all of County Offaly. A County in two parts, Towns like Edenderry and Tullamore are growing fast in the commuter belt and are pretty much the commerical hub of the county. While the west is pretty much Fen county with decent sized towns like Birr and Banagher with a strong general Agrarian\Big Farmers lobby\Middle class lean. If this was a British constituency it would be strongly Tory and in Ireland rarely votes other than FF-FG (it's been pared with Laois for most of it's Dail history..) Where The Farmers lobby would lean IPP due mainly to Trade issues and the European union.. Would be close between both Irish parties, Labour wouldn't stand a chance but the Tories could be a wild card here.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Olwyn Enright (Irish Parliamentary Party)

So far:
Tories 10
CnaG 9
IPP 5
Labour 2

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Upper Bann:
Constituency contains Portadown, Drumcree and other Sectarian flashpoints. Making this an unlikely Labour constituency. The divisions here would be between CnaG and the Tory-Unionists, with the latter in ascendancy.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: David Trimble (Conservative)

The NILP was capable of polling well across Armagh; and that was before all the New Town developments (and the less said about those the better...).
I suspect that this would normally be a safe Labour constituency (from the '70's onwards anyway) but much more volatile than the working class Belfast seats (the model here is Irvine in Ayrshire, btw).

Local politics would be nasty; I suspect that a BNP-like party would probably poll very well in places.

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Probably a three-way marginal between IPP, CnaG and Labour (as surprising as this might seem, South Armagh was held by the NILP from 1938 until 1945).

I'm going to have to have a close look at the old Nationalist party vote, btw.

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Agree with the overall picture, but the details are confused and interesting; South Tyrone had a decent-sized NILP vote (though I think some of that seat is in Mid Ulster. Wonder where the Labour vote came from...), South Fermanagh was probably the safest Nationalist seat in Northern Ireland, while the other two Fermanagh seats actually gave double figures to Liberal candidates occasionally.

Also note; most Anglican constituency in Northern Ireland.

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Yeah; this is basically the Catholic equivilent of North Antrim.

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Sounds about right.

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Sounds about right (not sure if it would be even "fairly safe", but the Tories would do better here than in most of the rest of Northern Ireland).

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Would be a safe Labour seat.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

LENISTER - Part II (North Lenister - The Pale and enviorns)

North Louth:
Constituency includes Carlingford, Dundalk, Louth Town, Mansfieldtown and Ardee. The border of the constituency defined by the borders of county louth and a line just south of Ardee and north of Dunleer. Area well known for being a hotbed of Nationalist sentiment and politics and currently has a Sinn Fein TD. Dundalk (which makes up the majority of the constituency population), while a boom town, is still rather working class in orientation is often defined by the border. The expansion of the commuter belt is another demographic factor, though is more an issue further south. Generally votes for Populist-type candidates in Irish elections with reputation as good constituency workers. Leans CnaG.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Arthur Morgan (Clann na nGael)

Boyne Estuary:
Constituency Includes Dunleer, Termofeckin, Drogheda in South County Louth, The Coastal bit of East County Meath aswell as Slane, Dunleek and Skreen, stretching out to include some of the Suburbs of Navan and Ashbourne where there has been a population explosion recently. A constituency three parts, the more middle class and settled Drogheda, also a boom town but without the nationalist history of Dundalk. The Commuter belt towns which dotting all over Meath at a furious rate referred to  leading economist\professional wag David McWilliams as "Deckland", a key constituency in re-electing Bertie Ahern two months ago. Then there are the farmers and rural regions in this area which contains some of the richest land in Ireland. An area therefore strongly pro-Anglo but with independent sentiments and Despite some catching up as of late, it's usually pretty solid for the Irish Parliamentary Party, Though both the Tories and Labour have some presence, though here the Tories often go into Electoral pacts with the IPP when sectarian tension are at the low-down.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: John Bruton (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Central and Western Meath:
Constituency Includes Navan Town (but excludes the Southern Suburbs), Trim, Kells, Drumconrath, Oldcastle, Athboy and Enfield. Includes the entire of county Meath west of Navan with a diagonal line from Enfield to just west of Slane defining the borders. Similiar to Boyne Estuary with it's population especially around Navan and the rise of Deckland, but also a traditional stronghold of the Irish Parliamentary Party due to it's Dublin-Whiggish connections and the vast majority of support from the big farmers of the region. Labour usually does a decent performance around Navan and some of the more Working Class commuter areas but rarely takes the seat but usually finishes second though Clan influence is gaining somewhat. Like in the other parts of the Outer Pale (Meath, Kildare and Wicklow) the Tories and the IPP would be rather close, especially at local level.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Damien English (Irish Parliamentary Party)

The Outer Pale:
Constituency Includes South East Meath including Ashbourne town, Dumshaughlin, Dunboyne, Drumree and Batterstown aswell as the North East of county Kildare including Maynooth, Leixlip, Kilcock, and Straffan. This constituency would be INSANE due to the unbelievable population explosion in the region, Traditionally another IPP rural stronghold this is now full of dormitory towns full of people who work in Dublin and these people would be sort unpredictable in how they vote, but as I said before they were recognized as a key reason for the re-election of Bertie Ahern but that maybe down to the incumbency factor, certainly ideology is not prevelant here. Would either go Labour or IPP generally, If Cameron truly revives the Tory party it may even turn blue in 2009 or 2010 (and would certainly do so if this was a constituency in Britain). Also contains the University of Maynooth and so might have a strong 'liberal' vote. Not generally a nationalist area though so the CnaG would be fairly weak.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Emmet Stagg (Labour)

Central and Western Kildare
Constituency Includes Carbury, Robertstown, Rathagan, Prosperous, Alan, The Curragh, Johnstown, Sallins and Naas. Another area which has had amazing population growth in the past 10 years. Naas is now one of the biggest towns in Ireland and is full of the "deckland" constituency identified in re-electing Bertie Ahern (ie. Lower Middle-Class families priced out of Dublin homes but have generally done well in the Economic boom, tend to be ideologiless and so favour incumbents despite a slight anti-politician slant in general.) Traditionally like all of the Outer Pale this would have gone easily for the IPP in occasional alliance with the Tories depending on the mood of the 26 countries towards Britain and the Conservative party which would turn increasingly negative in the 80s and 90s. For this reason I suspect this may go with Labour for the time present, at least it would have done in 1997 and 2001, 2005 would be close between Labour and the IPP. Toryism though has revived here under Cameron

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Jack Wall (Labour)

South Kildare:
Constituency Includes Newbridge, Kildare Town, Monasterevan, Athy, Kilcullen and Castledermot. Basically the entire reminder of County Kildare. This area has seen some population increase but not as much as the other constituencies mentioned and thus is more traditional. (Except for the area around Newbridge) Though the area around Athy is a traditional stronghold of the Irish Labour Party and thus I imagine it would be another IPP\Occasional Tory - Labour battle with the Clan nowhere to be seen. Perhaps went Labour in the hype of 1997 and maybe even again in 2001 but likely to have been lost two years ago. Like all of these regions, this still has a strong Farmers lobby, the land here being some of the best in Ireland.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Sean Power (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Overall North Lenister:
IPP 3 Labour 2 CnaG 1

Overall Ireland:
Tories 10 CnaG 10 IPP 7 Labour 4

[afleitch]

Drew up a quick map here. Completed areas in grey

Followed your directions as close as I could Gully, using rivers and contours to define some boundaries (Liffey for part of the boundary between CW Kildare and S Kildare for example)



And as for South Kildare I could bet my house (if I owned one) that someone would stand for the 'Monasterevan Loony Party'

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Wow.. That's awesome. Though now I think of it the exact boundaries of the Kildare constituencies are a bit off.. but it's very hard to find accurate population data (especially on those over 18 and able to vote.) on the web. I might fix it later.

Lenister - Part III coming up in a bit.. (Working on it now)

[afleitch]

No worries - ill post the blank county map (UK constituencies in Northern Ireland) in the gallery

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Lenister - Part III (South Lenister)

North Wicklow:
Constituency contains Bray, Greystones, Enniskerry, Blessington, The Mountains, Kilcoole, Newtownmountkennedy, Ashford, Donard and Baltinglass. Constituency boundaries are defined by County Wicklow with a slight diagonal line going straight from Kiltegan to Rathnew.

Odd, Odd place voting wise. Wicklow really has no strong Republican traditions and I can't see CnaG doing well at all, like alot of the region surrounding Dublin it would probably be a Labour-IPP marginal constituency. Bray is by far the major population centre of the town is the sort of faded seafront ex-holiday place that one seems as strongly Labour in the UK but quite Fianna Fail-ish in Ireland, The coast around Wicklow in Bray and Greystones start off as fairly Working Class and increases in Status when one goes further up. Due to the Mountains farming isn't as important here as it may be other regions, though still significant. Wicklow was former Region of Charles Stewart Parnell and is fairly moderate yet unpredictable in it's choices. It's promoxity to Dublin makes it have a strong Social liberal streak (That, and all those all Wonkish new age types that seem to be spread across the Wicklow Mountains.) Probably Labour from 1997..

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Liz McManus (Labour)

South Wicklow & Carlow:
Constituency contains Wicklow Town, Rathdrum, Arklow, Avoca and Aughrim, Basically the entire of County Wicklow not in North Wicklow plus the entire of County Carlow north of Bagnelstown, Including Carlow and Tullow.

South Wicklow is much more conservative than the North, plus a major factor is the Commuter areas around Arklow and Rathdrum. Rural and dotted with Smallish but affulent villages and farms it's probably powerful IPP terriority.. aswell as being the old home of Parnell. Though IPP influence is starting to wane due to the Commuters it's unlikely to see it having much effect on this side of the constituency. Carlow is the biggest town in the Constituency, it also has a decent number of Students and a history of a "soft-left" vote. Strong IPP seat with Labour in Second, Tories would do fairly decent too with the right candidate, the whole of Wicklow has a fairly Independent streak and it wouldn't be such a huge issue, there is also a decent sized Protestant community. Clann na nGael would have little success.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Billy Timmins (Irish Parliamentary Party)

North Wexford:
Constituency contains Gorey, Ferns, Killane, Ford, Enniscorthy, Blackwater, Oilgate and Castlebridge with the border defined with a direct line just south of Castlebridge, Excluding New Ross.

This area is now Prime commuter belt and rather upper-working Class and Lower-Middle in certain respects (perhaps a way putting is it's full of the Irish equilavalent of the Daily Mail reading classes) fairly Social Liberal nowadays only due to the Dublin influence. Again like most of Lenister it would be strongly held by the IPP until 1997 when Labour would come significantly into the fore. Though CnaG would not be insignificant here either though the Tories would be, there is a decent nationalist streak in Wexford (Dating back from 1798). Difficult to call really. I'll go with the IPP.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Michael D'arcy (Irish Parliamentary Party)

North Kilkenny:
Constituency contains the City of Kilkenny, Urlingford, Castlecomer, Ballyraggat, Goresbridge, Callan and Thomastown. The border is defined by a straight line across just north of Ballyhale.

Now we're getting into terriority whose promixity to Dublin might not seriously influence it's politics, at least as much as in Kildare and Wicklow. In Irish politics at least since WT Cosgrave, Carlow-Kilkenny has generally been ignored by Irish goverments and hasn't produced a cabinet member in... god knows how long? Has a tendency to vote for mavericks and has a decent "soft-left" vote. The Constituency is divided into three: 1) The City of Kilkenny and it's suburbs, The city being Affluent and Medevil and would probably have strong Anglo connections in this timeline, 2) The towns of roughly 2,000 or 3,000 in population like Castlecomer, Urlingford, Thomastown, etc.. which divide themselves in those most "working\lower-middle class" or "Decklandesque" towns  and 3) The farmers.. Kilkenny is not a poor region of Ireland Agriculturally and it's quite close to two of the major ports.. Waterford and Dublin. All these factors suggest that this would be a fairly Strong Irish Parliamentary Party seat, though with both Labour and the Conservatives having some presense.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: John McGuinness (Irish Parliamentary Party)

And here's one that dicests two Provinces and four counties.

The South East:
Consituency contains 1) Ballinat and Ballyhale in County Kilkenny (Anywhere in Kilkenny not in North Kilkenny), 2) the City of Waterford and Dunmore in County Waterford, 3) The Southern Tip of Carlow (anywhere in Carlow excluded from South Wicklow & Carlow) and 4) The Southern Region of Wexford including Newross, Duncannon Wexford and Rosslare. The Border being defined just west of Waterford city, excluding Tramore.

Contains two of Ireland's major ports - Rosslare and Waterford, aswell as Wexford town. Major Trading hub.. this constituency is so convulted due to the fact that the County boundaries really don't help me here - Waterford too big for just one, too small for two. Ditto with Wexford. And if it wasn't for the demographics of this constituency there wouldn't much previous Election results to base my prediction on. Fairly Working Class though with a few Affulent farmers.. Waterford City has one of the more sharper class divides in Ireland, with the Workers Party, Sinn Fein doing well (as well as the region having shown some historical strength for the Labour Party) but as has the PDs and the more right-wing\neo-liberal elements of Fianna Fail. An interesting constituency, the role of Clann na nGael is tricky to form, would probably hold the seat in the 80s due to Anti-Thatcherism and an alienation towards the Labour party in Great Britain (Neither Foot nor Kinnock really have much "Ireland" appeal imo.) would be a fairly strong three-way marginal between CnaG, Lab and the IPP. With the present Economic boom it's hard not to see Nationalist sentiment waning.. leans Labour, slightly.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Brendan Howlin (Labour)

[afleitch]

Ere we go



Spot the missing pixel

[Kevinstat]

Ere we go



Spot the missing pixel

Your map, in southern Leinster at least, doesn't seem to match up with Gully Foyles district discriptions, but the missing pixel is clearly one pixel before the "local" southernmost point in the boundary between County Carlow (or a district that looks very much like it) and County Wexford (ditto), coming from County Wicklow (ditto) going southwest before turning to the northeast and then going southeast again until it intersects with County Kilkenny (or, again, a district that you have drawn to look very much like it).

Simple really. 

I didn't enlarge the map or anything like that, although I did go to Wikipedia for a county map of Ireland to identify where the missing pixel I saw was.