Redistricting...Ireland?

[afleitch]

Kevin, its not a constituency map; an attempt at that was made before. It's simply a blank map for people to use with the Irish counties, except in Northern Ireland with the current UK constituencies.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Finally finished Lenister (sans Dublin; which to quote Jas, as every right minded Irish person knows, should always be seperated from the rest of the Country, I'll leave it till last.) but upcoming is Munster, which isn't too difficult... simply because many of the Dail constituencies can serve this purpose.

[afleitch]

Slight detour here

How would a nationalistic, but devolved Ireland  have an effect on Scottish nationalism? First off, Scotland would have had it's own parliament decades before we actually did and would likely be established at around the same time as the Irish parliament had the Home Rule Bill been successful. Modern nationalism, which had it's roots in academic circles in the 30's but didn't achieve any success until after the war and beyond, would have become a stronger political force in Scotland. I can imagine two nationalist parties operating in Scotland on either side of the left/right economic divide. Again, has the Home Rule Bill passed in say 1914, before the war, this would have had a significant effect on the growth of the Labour Party and the transferance of allegiance from the Liberals to Labour on Clydeside.

Scotland in the 1930's had far more diversity in local politics than national politics. The Conservatives were not a force (which would ultimately seal their downfall in the 60's) operating instead as bands of Moderates, Progressives and Independents from landowners, to businessmen to 'ladies of leisure.' Unfortunately Scotland also had a very nasty sectarian streak. The Church of Scotland in the 30's actively called for the repatriation of Irish, Italian and Lithuanian Catholics. Various Protestant 'action groups' and other local bodies established in Glasgow and Edinburgh and made small but significant inroads into local politics. Some were bordering on the violent, paramilitary and proto-fascist. While local poltics offered tham an outlet, had a Scottish Assembly existed as a 'middle tier' it is likely that at least one, most likely in Edinburgh would be elected. There was also, in the late 30's (but cut short by the war) a growing 'clerical' element within Italian Catholics and Irish Catholics in some areas of Glasgow that may have produced a counter-political movement given time. The possibility of both a  Catholic and a Protestant nationalist (as opposed to a unionist) party developing had an Assembly existed is quite possible. Left to it's own devices so to speak, Scotland could have become more fragmented along sectarian lines.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For the Record I'm including Clare (and a tiny bit of Limerick - The Castleconnell area) in with Connacht for convience, If any man from Clare comes on the forum to complain.. well, sorry.

MUNSTER - Part one (The easy bit)

Tipperary North:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Tipperary North (Thurles, Templemore, Nenagh, Roscrea, Borrisokane, Ballycahill, Holycross..) Electorate: 59,427

Land of the big farmers, dairy Industries and Ireland's only Agricultural college - peppered with decent sized mainly "working class" towns like Nenagh and Borrisokane. But unlikely to see any real strong Anti-British sentiment in the region due to trade and employment (Northern Tipperary wasn't part of the "Munster Republic" which split from the Free State in 1922 due to treaty iirc.), the European union being a major issue here. If you count Michael Lowry (Ind-FG) then this constituency recorded the highest FG vote in the entire country in 2007 and that's still rather significant due to tradition, also it must be said that there is a traditionally strong 'left-wing' vote though that has declined somewhat recently. Tends to like voting for "ordinary guy" politicians (most of Ireland does). I imagine this would perhaps vote rather similiar to Lenister; except perhaps with more protest voting. 

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Michael Lowry (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Tipperary South:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Tipperary South (Clonmel, Cahir, Cashel, Fethard, Carrick-On-Suir, Tipperary Town, Ballingarry...) Electorate: 56,092

Not too dissimiliar to Tipperary North, but we are entering "rebel" terriority now. Though economically rather similiar to the North of the county and has a sizable traditional "left-wing" vote but again is fading, but strangely not as much as in Tipperary North. But Sinn Fein nor the Workers Party have ever held much ground here. Plus at present the most prosperous region of the constituency is currently in it's south, around Clonmel and it's towns are generally slightly more affulent than those to the north. Again I suspect that the European union would be a big issue here, Labour would do decently but almost never win the seat - but might have came close in 1997, the Conservatives would also do well until 1983 - at which point strong calls for independance would return. Leans IPP. The CnaG picking up most of the substanial protest vote - at least at national level.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Tom Hayes (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Kerry North:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Kerry North (Tralee, Ballybunion, Ballyduff, Listowel, Tarbert, Castleisland....) Electorate: 52,476. Kerry is going to slightly over-represented here, like Donegal: But it's isolation makes it impossible otherwise.

The Rural conservative heartland of the Munster Republic, though it has a history of a strong (by Rural Munster standards) left-wing and has currently a SF TD since 2002 (and had a labour one non-stop from 1942 till then; but that was held entirely by one family. Families being a key currency in Irish politics) which shows that the left-vote can make up approx 25% of the constituency but it tends to have something a nationalist vest; as I mentioned it was the heartland of the Munster Republic and probably the worst affected area of the Civil war; simply due to the anti-Treaty attitude of the Local IRA and of most of the general population. In Elections today names and especially surnames seem to be, even by Irish standards, very important in Kerry - It also tends to generally prefer incumbents aswell. Showing the Populist nature of the constituency. In both Kerry constituency tourism is the main provider of the local economy and in the Economic declines of the 50s and 80s Kerry was one of the most badly effected regions - and has a tendency to see itself neglected by the rest of the country, though when many Americans think of "Ireland" the natural imagery of Kerry is what comes to mind - Though John Wayne wouldn't that appreciated here as the Yanks think. The main centre of the area is Tralee; where about a third of the population live (and more work, especially if they're not involved in Rural Tourism or Farmers.) - predictably Tourism and Retail are the main employers; industry being negiliable - and most of the minor towns in the region are similiar. There is increasing nationalism among some groups here aswell as the predictable conservatism; it saw a higher than usual vote against the Nice Treaty in both referendums and in issues relating to divorce or Abortion it always goes the side of the Catholic Church. For all these regions, I'd say it would particularly safe CnaG seat.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Martin Ferris (Clann na nGael)

Kerry South:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Kerry South (Killarney, The Dingle Pennisula, The Ring of Kerry, Rathmore, Glenbeigh, Kenmare....) Electorate: 51,716

Politics very similiar to Kerry North; one major town which dominates (Killarney), an area whose economy is mainly based on income from Tourism (probably even more dependent than Kerry North; Killarney has more hotel beds than any other Irish town, except Dublin o\c) than with quite a bit of very small towns and alot of workers in traditional jobs such as fishermen, farmers, etc. This is the Dail constituency of Jackie Healy Rae after all and the Rural vote is very extensive here; much more so than in Kerry North due to the wider nature of area. Very little actual industry; not even construction - though that's probably still the biggest. There is also still some Irish speaking areas; though widely spoken Irish actually is in these places is hard to tell, due to local desire just to get some goverment grants (which of course would not exist in this scenario..) - barring a wide personal vote it's vote not to see Kerry South voting much different from Kerry North; even though from evidence the SF vote is weaker here, though whether that's down to Martin Ferris or the SF machine in Kerry South or just unpopularity is questionable. If there was to be a serious independence movement in Ireland, it would have to take seats like this.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: John O'Donahoe (Clann na nGael)

Limerick Outer:
Constituency includes most of the Dail constituency of Limerick West (Adare, Newcastle-West, Ballingarry, Askeaton, Abbeyfeale, Foynes, Bruff, Galbally.. Electorate: 53,879) plus Patrickswell, Pallasgreen, Ballyneety.

A major farming area this as it shares the fertile golden vale - Limerick in Irish is Luimneach, or the Flat land - with Tipperary though unlike Tipperary has less towns and it's population is far less concentrated (except for some of the Limerick City Outer Suburbs) and has historically almost never voted for anyone not from Fianna Fail or Fine Gael (only once Limerick West has done otherwise; in 1987 when they elected a PD; but Limerick was the PD heartland then) showing the inate conservatism of the constituency - almost three quarters of the land area of Limerick county (incl. the City) is used for Agriculture - though that's an unusual statistic for Munster and there is very little industry, there is also an unusually number of people employed in Managerial and higher-professional work (though unfortunetly the Census does not go by Dail Constituency; so whether they in The Outer reaches of Limerick City or in more Outer areas is harder to fathom). Aswell as Agricultural and high levels of self-employed (and Property Ownership) in Limerick County most of the economy is dependant on Tourist towns like Adare aswell as local major attractions such as Fishing, Golf, etc. All these factors add up to what seems like a fairly conservative constituency which wouldn't likely rock the Status Quo too much.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Tim O'Malley (Irish Parliamentary Party)

City of Limerick:
Constituency includes the City of Limerick, Mungret, Castletroy, Various inner and semi-Outer suburbs, most of the rest of County Limerick not included in "Limerick Outer" except for the area around Castleconnell and the Shannon Basin which will go into another constituency.

Analysis on Page six.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Jan O'Sullivan (Clann na nGael)

So far in 2005:
Clann na nGael 13 Irish Parliamentary Party 13 Tories 10 Labour 6

[Colin]

I guess you've stopped posting descriptions of the politics of each constituency. I understand if you don't have the time though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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I have plently of time between now and Sunday when I'm off for a Prep week in College and then another week after that.. I'll get this done. The problem is admittely I don't really know much about some regions compared to others and I am often just looking at the Dail election results and type of TDs elected to make an educated guess. I admit almost knowing nothing about Co.Limerick for example outside the city which makes prediction there rather hard...

That, and laziness.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Made some minor tweaking of the Kildare's constituencies.. Putting Newbridge into South Kildare being the main Factor.

Actually Afleitch (or Al, or whoever..) I have to ask a question, In Britain do they divide constituencies by Electorate or by Total legal inhabitants (including those under 18).. This would make quite a difference actually.

Oh and one more constituency, it's a strange one united by nothing but the River Shannon and bisects two provinces and three counties but it's the best way that fits:

Lower Shannonside
Constituency Includes the Castleconnell area of Co. Limerick including some outer Limerick City suburbs, In County Clare the constituency contains Shannon Town, Sixmilebridge, Newmarket-on-Fergus, Tulla, Feakle, Bunratty, Killaloe, Mountshannon, Whitegate and Eastern Clare on the Shannon. The border in Clare is just north of Sixmilebridge and just west of Caher. In county Galway this constituency contains Portumna, Loughrea, Gort Eyrecourt and Ballinasloe. The border being defined just north of Ballinasloe and just west of Loughrea and north of Gort. In other words, this constituency one fine Gerrymander which probably suits the CnaG if anyone. (Literally the North and the South of these constituencies have nothing in common). It's also almost impossible to imagine what Clare politics would have been like in the 20th Century without the Influence of the De Valera family (Of course Shannon Town probably wouldn't exist if Ireland had never become independent.. it was a 'new town' set up by the Lemass goverment to boost Economic growth, but again let's ignore that anomaly. It's one of the biggest towns in this constituencies with a whooping 10,000 people in a constituency dominated by Affulent Trading towns (like Shannon) in the South and Middle Classesque suburbs plus Castleconnell, centre for anglers and generally quite a middle class area, PDs have traditionally done well here (Actually they were partially formed in Castleconnell). Then as you hit Galway the land gets progressively worse and the Towns, generally, more working class which in times of depression would be reserve magnets for emigration (as is the whole of Connacht and West Munster, really) - This area actually would have very strong independance leanings and very Anti-Thatcher\Tory - needless to say in neither side of the constituency do the British parties have much presence. And it's a total toss-up generally, but as there is an economic boom at present in this alternative aswell I suspect people wouldn't want to rock the boat too much.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Paul Connaughton (Irish Parliamentary Party)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually Afleitch (or Al, or whoever..) I have to ask a question, In Britain do they divide constituencies by Electorate or by Total legal inhabitants (including those under 18).. This would make quite a difference actually.

Electorate

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There are a lot of New Town's over here, so I don't see why it would exist.

Btw, how much Irish demographic stuff be there online?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Actually Afleitch (or Al, or whoever..) I have to ask a question, In Britain do they divide constituencies by Electorate or by Total legal inhabitants (including those under 18).. This would make quite a difference actually.

Electorate

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There are a lot of New Town's over here, so I don't see why it would exist.

Btw, how much Irish demographic stuff be there online?

The best site I know of is:  www.cso.ie - but note the site is a bit of a nightmare to navigate. Plus they still haven't updated alot of it for the results of the 2006 census. Most of my analysis comes from what I know about these regions already... plus it's very difficult to get results on over 18s over a wide area (Thankfully I was already using Electorate; that would mean going back and doing parts of Lenister all over again - I'm actually mainly using the data I have an current Irish constituencies for the division - most of what I have isn't on-line except for a couple of things on wikipedia. This is why my constituencies may cross-county ones should not be taken as gospel..

[Tetro Kornbluth]

MUNSTER - Part II (Cork and the Remnants)

West Clare:
Constituency includes Clarecastle, Ennis, Corofin, The Burren, Lahinch, Quilty, Lisdoonvarna, Miltown Malby, Loop Head, Kilkee and Kilrush (Basically the Entire of county clare excluded from the "lower Shannonside" constituency.)

Hard to imagine what Clare politics would have been like in the 20th Century with no Eamonn De Valera; though the Province has a huge nationalist tradition dating back well before the 1918 Clare East by-Election. Though this is slightly different from West Cork, which is still pretty agrarian while the rate of employment in Clare is dependant on Multinational industries and services; similiar to most of Lenister actually. (Though a significant portion of this has been ceeded into the "Lower Shannonside" constituency - Shannon Airport and the Lemass Era economic development plans are mainly responisible for this.. so, ooops yet another anolomy. Only Donegal (and Dubln and Cork City, obviously) really has a significant proportion of it's workforce in Manual non-agrarian labour. So the question is here whether Clare's isolation and traditional nationalism trumps the economic interests of the Ennis region where the base of multinationals would be settled. The north of the county, which is isolated from the regions of power in Clare never mind the rest of the country would still be firmly nationalist and populist, though it's not really farmland at all (Karst region) and is totally dependant on tourism for economic growth. Leans towards the Irish Parliamentary party - and may well see both Labour and the Conservatives doing decently, but all would very much depend on 'events'.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Madeleine Taylor-Quinn (Irish Parliamentary Party)

North West Cork:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Cork North West (including recent boundary changes to Ballincollig; though here there will an exception where Ballincollig will be split in half, the east side of it going into a urban constituency. Electorate prior to Changes: 53, 699 with Dail changes around 73,000 - my split should make it around 65,000 larger than most of the constituencies here - might transfer some land from NW Cork to SW Cork.)

Very, Very Rural and conservative constituency (Between them FF and FG took 95% of the vote in the Dail constituency in the election this year - this is an area of the country where FG tend to be more right-wing (at least economically) than FF (who generally are more Local Investment-Populist types). Neither party outside of those two has ever held a seat here - at least in Modern history. Fairly mountainous terrain and thus making it more of a poorer area with many struggling landowners - there is no town above 3,000 in population here except the inclusion of Ballincollig; which is nowadays a very working class Cork city commuter town with notable Populist sentiment. For these reasons, it would be fairly strong for Clann na nGael (Roughly 60-40). British parties would have no influence - though if we only talking Labour, Con and Lib Dem then for sure Labour would win all the Cork constituencies except maybe Blackwater & Dungarven (Tory-Lab marginal) and Douglas & Ringaskiddy (Three-way marginal..)

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Batt O' Keefee (Clann na nGael)

South West Cork:
Constituency includes modern Dail constituency of Cork South West (Electorate: 54,274) plus some rural areas transferred from NW Cork around the Kerry border.

Less Populist more Conservative than the above with bigger towns (like Bantry), easier access to the City and the ports and ergo more a centre for trade (also contains Kinsale, a noteworthy harbour) but is still rather agrarian (except at it's eastern edge where it contains some Commuter towns) and it's economy is probably highly dependant on tourism, though that is similiar problem across the South west of Ireland - which may breed resentment in parts, though this area is relatively free of immigration (which is another historical analomy we would have to ignore.. No carribeans or Africans came to Ireland after WWII excluding extremely rare individual cases.) It's alienation for the center of political power (Plus the history of nationalism in Cork - known as "The Rebel county". This was Michael Collins' home patch.) though for me makes it lean Clan roughly 55-45. Again no British party influence.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Jim O' Keefee (Clann na nGael) - no relation to above.

Blackwater & Dungarven:
Consituency includes West Waterford; Tramore, Dungarven, Lismore, Cappoquin (Anywhere in Waterford excluded from the "South East" constituency.) plus Youghal, Ballycotton and Midleton in County Cork.

Fiscal conservative commuter towns like Midleton mix with seaside resorts like Tramore and Ports like Youghal. Would be a difficult mix to judge and the British Labour Party might have a fair bit of influence especially in the Waterford end of the constituency. The more radical populism of the west having little sway over near Waterford and the more agrarian areas which might need British trade (though this wouldn't be as huge an issue as in Lenister). I could also see the Euro and the EU being fairly decisive here too, though there is something of a "soft left" vote (which might be "hard left" around Dungarvan). So I suspect it would lean right now towards the Irish Parliamentary Party.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Martin Cullen (Irish Parliamentary Party)

East Cork:
Constituency includes the modern Dail consituency of Cork East (Cobh, Fermoy, Mitchellstown.. Electorate 72,702) excluding the tiny region to south which includes Youghal and the Cork city commuter town of Midleton.

This constituency includes Cobh - traditionally the second biggest Shipbuilding centre in the whole Island (The first being Belfast) and still the traditional port of the City of Cork aswell as a major industrial base which has built along the coastal area - though this has been in decline for the past 25 years or so. Thus making it the perfect place to ferment Working class discontent at the Status Quo. Apart from the Industrial base around Cobh and the Eastern Cork outer suburbs which would mainly work in the Industrial coast (Petrochemicals, Pharma, etc.. aswell as in more recent times, major service firms, IT.. though Construction isn't as significant an employer here as in other places) the constituency is larger rural and conservative predominated by farmers on mainly poor land and small towns which mainly thrive on tourism and are traditionally towns for the local farmers' market. Traditionally in Ireland the area here (most - but not all of - the Cork East dail constituency) usually elects 2FF, 1FG and 1Lab - with a rather significant rather Labour vote, this area in Ireland like all of Cork really, has a traditional of nationalism especially around the Mallow area.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Sean Sherlock (Clann na nGael)

City of Cork:
Constituency includes the main metropolian area of Cork. The Constituency borders being defined by the area encircled by the North and South Ring Roads - Excluding Fair Hill and Douglas.

As has been said before Cork has long been a centre for nationalism in Ireland and was one the major urban centres to support the irregular IRA in the Civil war (aswell as being burnt down after the war of Independance.. though obviously neither of those events happen here.) Historically Cork city has been more an industrial centre than Dublin has, though still does not compare in any way to the manner in which certain industries played such a major role in Belfast life as has developed into more of a commerical centre than anything else though still much inferior (and traditionally much poorer) to Dublin in this regard (whether that is so or not is debatable certainly when considering how much it now costs to live in Dublin.. though up until recently the City of Cork had stopping of a grimy reputation.. to be skipped off. But like alot in Ireland, that's changed somewhat over the past 10 years). Electorally Cork city is divided up into two constituencies divided by the River Lee, Traditionally in both there has been a significant Labour vote for Ireland aswell as the traditional FF-FG divide - Other Parties doing well in the more middle class and liberal areas of the city which have been put into another constituency. How the city would vote is questionable, like all of Cork county it would strongly be Anti-Thatcher and pro-independence in the past, but whither with the boom and dramatic increase in Service employment and increased social mobility...? Traditional has this one going to the CnaG.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Michael Martin (Clann na nGael)

Cork City suburbs on the next page due to Gully excedding the character limit.

So far Results:

CnaG: 18 IPP: 17 Tories: 10 Labour: 6

The Cork city constituencies might be a bit off, the exact populations of the Metro area are hard to judge. Analysis to come shortly (sorry I'm behind... )

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I'll be leaving to start Prep Week in college tomorrow, for this reason I'll do Connacht on the quick and leave the analysis till I get back.

CONNACHT:
Sligo & Ballina:
Constituency includes all of Co. Sligo and Foxford, Ballina, Crossmolina, Killala and Ballyglass in Co. Mayo. The constituency border by lough Conn and just east of Crossmolina.

The Culture of Sligo - which makes up the major of this consituency - tends to have an unusually Anglo influence by West Ireland standards. From the Anglo-Irish poets (Like Yates; who was a Sligo native but then again so was Countess Markewicz) to the fact that the county is something of an enclave to Soccer unlike the rest of the west of the Island which prefers GAA (Though in saying that it's also a major Traditional Irish Music spot aswell.. ah the Mystery of local culture..). Electorally though it's similiar to other Parts of the west with only FF and FG having significant presence (which is, unusually, fairly evenly divided, at least in recent years) - and some SF as of late, though not as much as in neighbouring counties and there is the traditional complaint from Sligo natives that it's ignored by the centre of power, etc - slightly under half of the population live in Sligo town, a developing small town with a couple of typically martimite industries but is generally based upon retail, services and tourism for it's local economy. The last of those three especially is the key factor outside of the town in rural Sligo, which is still relatively agrarian based and remote from the rest of the country. The Mayo side of the constituency is nearly entired made up of the town of Ballina; which curiously has the highest rate of Unemployment in the entire Ireland (at nearby 16% according to 2007 CSO figures) and those who are employed are mostly in Typical tourism, Farming, Fishing but also in some industrial estates which have popped up in the town to help economic growth. Despite this the whole Mayo area represented in this area is mainly Poor-ish and Rural; though does have a traditional of slight FG voting - especially in recent years; though that might be down to the Edna Kenny factor (though he's from Castlebar). As for who would win this in a UK general election.. well, it would be fairly close and come down major grassroots issues. Though I suspect there would be an enough of an IPP surplus in North Sligo to upset an CnaG surplus around Ballina Town and the Southern end of Sligo. Usually, anyway.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: John Perry (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Central Mayo:
Constituency includes Castlebar, Ballyhean, Ballintober, Mayo Village, Ballinrobe, Cong, Claremorris, Ballyhaunis, Knock, Claremorris, Charlestown and Ballaghdereen. The Border of the constituency is defined by Loch Mask, Loch Conn and Just west of Castlebar.

Very Rural constituency with one or two major Tourist based or Service based economies and has a reputation of conversatism (ie. Only voting FF or FG; always) and supporting incumbency. As this area excludes Ballina and the West Coast it includes the areas of Mayo most effected positively by the Economic boom. While the County as a whole tends to have major economic blackspots most of those are based in the far West and around Ballina. The main town is Castlebar - whose economy is nowadays nearly all service workers. There is almost no industry and the number of actual farmers is decreasing - leaving many of those with actual land in relatively big holdings. Though the type of land here makes crop growing futile (see The Potato Famine) the region is a major exporter of Meat in the region; the local airport based in Knock (also a religious shrine due to some miracle whatsit) is also a major economic hub. Due to these factors it will probably be a slightly IPP lean to it in recent years; while in the past it would have been an CnaG stronghold. It may depend alot on local issues (like all else in Irish politics.)

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Edna Kenny (Irish Parliamentary Party)

West Connacht:
Constituency includes Achill Island, Erris, Bellacorick, Westport, Louisburgh and Partry in County Mayo and Clifden, Joyce Country, Connemara, Spiddal and The Aran Islands with the border defined at just east of Oughterard and Galway Airport.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Eamonn O Cuiv (Clann na nGael)

Galway Central:
Constituency includes Oughtetard, Moycullen, Salthill, Galway Airport and The City of Galway west of the River Corrib.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Noel Grealish (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Galway East:
Constituency includes the city of Galway East of the River Corrib, Kinvara, Kilcolgan, Oranmore, Athenry, Newcastle, Tuam, Headford and Claregalway - all of County Galway east of Loch\River Corrib except the area included in the Lower Shannonside constituency.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Noel Treacy (Clann na nGael)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I only have Dublin to do now and I'll do that when I back (aswell as the remaining Analysis):

But I'll lapse into an alternative hypothesis here where the three mainstream British parties are dominant here (would never happen but...):

LENISTER:
North Louth: Fairly safe LAB
Boyne Estuary: Lean CON, Marginal with LIB DEMS.
The Outer Pale: Lean CON.... I think.. ish. (would be strange anyway)
Central and Western Meath: Lean CON
Central and West Kildare: Lean CONish - significant LAB and LIB DEM presence.
South Kildare: Fairly CON, but LAB could win it in good years.
North Wicklow: Lean LAB
South Wicklow-Carlow: Lean CON
North Wexford: Lean LAB
The South East: Fairly safe LAB
North Kilkenny: Three-way Marginal, maybe? Perhaps would go for personal vote
Offaly: Strong CON
Laois: Strong CON
Westmeath: Strong CON
------------------------------------
Upper Shannonside: Agriarian LAB.. possibly..
Lower Shannonside: LAB-CON marginal (possibly Irish bellwether)

MUNSTER:
West Clare: Fairly CON
City of Limerick: Very Safe LAB
Limerick Outer: Strong CON
Kerry North: LAB-CON battle, may lean LAB
Kerry South: Fairly CON
North West Cork: Agriarian LAB
South West Cork: Hard to say, LAB-CON Marginal maybe. Slight CON lean.
East Cork: Fairly LAB
Blackwater & Dungarven: Fairly LAB
City of Cork: Strong LAB
Cork - Fair Hill & Blarney: Leans LAB
Cork - Douglas & Ringaskiddy: Would be very tight battle.. Possibly LIB DEM, but very close.

Connacht:
Longford & Roscommon: Strong CON
Sligo & Ballina: Leans LIB DEM
Central Mayo: LIB DEM-CON (Think South West England)
West Connacht: Depends on the issues.. certainly not the LIB DEMS though.
Galway Central: Leans CON
Galway East: Strong CON

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No comments since my last apperance....

Anyway I'll get to finishing this soon enough.

[Јas]

No comments since my last apperance....

Well, I'm reading with interest if not commenting. Like I said, there's just so many variables at play.

What I find most interesting is that you have two Irish parties in play in Clann na Gael and the Irish Parliamentary Party. I'd be more inclined to believe that as with pre-independence, there would probably be one strong party (if having divergent wings of varying commital to constitutionalist means) competing against the 'normal' British parties.

I'd also find it very difficult to classify constituencies along Lab/Con/LDem lines given just how Irish politics has evolved - i.e. much less clear ideologies; more localist in outlook (or maybe I'm wrong ?)

Anyhow, your work is still very interesting. By and large, a good effort at constituency drawing (I'll pretend I didn't see Lower Shannonside )

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No comments since my last apperance....

Well, I'm reading with interest if not commenting. Like I said, there's just so many variables at play.

What I find most interesting is that you have two Irish parties in play in Clann na Gael and the Irish Parliamentary Party. I'd be more inclined to believe that as with pre-independence, there would probably be one strong party (if having divergent wings of varying commital to constitutionalist means) competing against the 'normal' British parties.

I'd also find it very difficult to classify constituencies along Lab/Con/LDem lines given just how Irish politics has evolved - i.e. much less clear ideologies; more localist in outlook (or maybe I'm wrong ?)

Anyhow, your work is still very interesting. By and large, a good effort at constituency drawing (I'll pretend I didn't see Lower Shannonside )

I assuming here there is Home Rule, and thus some sort of Opposition develops to the Status Quo which would develop in a 1920s devolved parliament (This Scenario breaks off from normal history in that there is no Easter Rising..), with the rising anger and discontement with the political status Quo sort some of opposition would have to emerge - Unlikely to the British Labour Party for various reasons, more likely a radical nationalist outfit (Perhaps led by a certain O'Duffy or maybe even a certain and very alive M Collins? Of course, a certain E D. Valera would remain a maths teacher till the end of his days in this alternative.) which could unite the different strains of radical Irish nationalism.. Jim Larkin Trade Unionism, Pearse Brand nationalism, Old Style Fenians and United Irishmen, Connolyism (and what role would Larkin, Pearse, Connoly, McDonnagh, et al have in this alternative history where they don't die in Prison in 1916.. now that's the big question mark.) Of course, after 1940 things get even more dependant on variables, especially with Ireland being WWII at this time.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Dublin is to get 14 constituencies, 7 and a half on the Southside, 6 and a half on the Northside - one has to straddle both sides. So, Dear Afleitch, Produce a map for the Greater Dublin area, please.

DUBLIN - Part I: Southside.

Dublin - Shelbourne & Ringsend:

Constituency Includes Trinity College, The Dame Street Area, The Grafton\Dawson\Kildare Street area (Kildare street is where our current politicos meet), St Stephens Green, Merrion Square, Ballsbridge, The Shelbourne Road, Landsdowne Road, Ringsend, Irishtown, Sandymount, Rathmines, Donnybrook and Ranelagh. Borders defined as south of the river liffey, east of Patrick's street and north of University College Dublin

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Ruairi Quinn (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Dublin - The Liberties & Drimnagh:

Constituency Includes The Liberties, Cork and Thomas Street Areas, Rialto, Dolphins Barn, Kilmainham, Islandbridge, Inchicore & East Drimnagh. Borders defined as south of the River liffey, west of Patrick's street, East of Ballyfermot and North of Crumlin and Harold's Cross.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Mary Upton (Labour)

Dublin - Ballyfermot & Clondalkin:

Constituency Includes Ballyfermot, West Drimnagh, Palmerstown, Crumlin, Kimmage, Walkinstown & Clondalkin Borders defined north of Tallaght, south of the liffey and west of Terenure.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Brian Lehinan (Clann na nGael)

Dublin - Kingstown:

Constituency Includes Kingstown (Dun Laoghaire), Glasthule, Sandycove, Dalkey, Killiney, Deans Grange, Cornelscourt, Shankill And Loughlinstown. Borders Defined south of Blackrock, North of Co. Wicklow and West of Carrickmines and Leopardstown.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Mary Hannafin (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Dublin - Donnybrook & Milltown:

Constituency Includes Donnybrook, Rathgar, Windy Arbour, Booterstown, Blackrock, Merrion, Mount Merrion, University College Dublin, Milltown, Closkeagh, Churchtown, Willbrook and Rathfarnham.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Alan Shatter (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Dublin - South County

Constituency Includes Leopardstown, Sandyford (AKA home ), Ballinteer, Dundrum, Foxrock, Cabinteely, Kilternan, Stepaside, Stillorgan, Glencullen Rathmichael, Old Connaught, Ballybrack, Ticknock, Rockbrook, Ballycullen, South Oldcourt, Edmondstown, Willbrook, South Jobstown, Ballymana, Lugmore and Rathcoole Borders Defined at just north of the M50 motorway at sandyford and west of the M50 at Shankill and south of Tallaght and Clondalkin and North of County Wicklow.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Olivia Mitchell (Irish Parliamentary Party).. ugghh..

Dublin - Tallaght:

Constituency Includes Greater Tallaght Area, Oldbawn, Greenhills, Kilmanagh, Knocklyon, Ballyboden, Templeogue & Jobstown. Boundaries defined east of Sagart, West of Ballyboden, South of Clondalkin and North of Olcourt.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Charlie O' Connor (Clann na nGael)

Analysis to come..

[afleitch]

(Applause)

Bloody well put together. You put in alot of time, effort and analysis I'll complete the map too if I can.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I'm not finished yet - I still have the Northside to do.

Back later, I have to finally leave the internets soon.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

DUBLIN - Part II (Northside & Lucan):

Dublin - Liffey Valley:

Constituency Includes (South of the River) Lucan, Adamstown and Ronanstown and (North of the River) Carpenterstown, Clonsilla, Castleheany, Littlepace, Mulhuddart and Corduff. Border defined west of Blanchardstown, Slightly north of Corduff and Slightly south of Lucan. Constituency does not include the main Blanchardstown-Castleknock area.

The area of Dublin filled with working-class commuter suburbs and has a major rates of employment in the Construction sector and service firms, with significant levels of alienation with the political status quo (Check out voter turn-outs for Dublin West and Dublin Mid-West and see what I mean.) The population of area has exploded in the past 25 years leaving this area with very little rural votes - not enough to be relevant anyway. The South end of this constituency is slightly more affulent than it's north; which contains some of Dublin's most notorious areas - like Mulhuddart, which has a very noteworthy crime rate. Though there are splatterings of Middle class suburban development about but these are in minority around the more western face of the constituency. Despite this the general attitude of those who do vote tends to be conservative generally, though this area has elected ultra-left mavericks like Joe Higgins in the past. (One Interesting fact about Dublin politics; Dublin is divided up into four counties for adminstrative purpose - in three of which at Present the Labour party holds the most seats; though never a majority. The area covered by this constituency - Fingal county (well.. mostly) doesn't really have a Sinn Fein vote and most of the Fianna Fail vote seems to be personal (or pro-goverment), Despite this I still think it will go CnaG though rapidly changing demographics here (really high number of immigrants aswell) put the question up into the air.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Pat Carey (Clann na nGael)

Dublin - City of Dublin

Constituency Includes The main north Inner city - Sackville (O'Connell) street area, The North Wall, Stoneybatter, Smithfield, The Phoenix Park aswell as the inner suburbs of Drumcondra, Cabra and Fairview. Borders defined south of Ashtown and Glasnevin, and South East of Artane.

The North Inner City in Dublin has become connected in the public mind with slum clearances, run down inner suburbs, Heroin addiction and many other inner city woes. Though the area is yuppifying at a tremendous pace with major reconstruction projects in Stoneybatter and Smithfield (ignore the anolomy..) aswell as the major Docklands development this is still an overwhelming working class area with perhaps the highest concentration of Council housing in the entire Republic (though perhaps not for much longer; certainly the native "northsiders" are continously being pushed out my the extreme demand for property, any property, in the city centre.) aswell as perhaps the highest number of immigrants - voter turnout tends to be among the lowest in the nation; even with our current Lord and Chief being based in Drumcondra and also records a dramatically low Fine Gael vote (In Dublin especially, there is a perception of Fine Gael being a Middle class party). Tends to like "populist" and "ordinary joe" politicians and dislikes typical university carpetbagger types, has a strong nationalist SF vote - as does all of the Inner city; especially the north side. But there would also be a strong element of union with Britain to continue among important employers, especially in the Docklands and in construction would make people lean towards Labour. Would be close between them and CnaG. The Irish Parliamentary Party would have a negilable presence. Tony Gregory would be it's current 'maverick' Labour MP.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Tony Gregory (Labour)

Dublin - Bayside

Constituency Includes Marino, Clontarf, Dollymount, Killester, North Bull Island, Raheny, Baldoyle, Bayside, Sutton, Howth and Portmarnock. Borders defined just North of Portmarnock along the North end of Dublin Bay.

Another rapidly changing area with more traditional industry dominant; but significantly more middle class containing areas like Portmarnock (famous for golf) and Sutton. Aswell as Howth, which combines old seaside town with highly desirable property mainly for rich with it's main economic bulk based upon fish, It's the East coast's biggest fish port and it's hard to see love for new EU regulations here. The more southern end of the constituency is alot more working class (Raheny is the home of Roddy Doyle and is the sort of place associated with "North Dublinese" for anyone whose read his early novels or seen The commitments) though this part of the constituency is emptying with the flight away from the inner city with many of it's traditional inhabitants going northwards or even out of the County Dublin area. It would probably be a three way marginal in parts - I have given it to Labour as SF sympathy doesn't seem to be too strong here and FG do better here than most areas of Inner North Dublin but it could either of three ways.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Tommy Broughan (Labour)

Dublin - Finglas

Constituency Includes Finglas, Finglas North, Glasnevin North, Glasnevin, Ashtown, Kildonan. Borders defined west of Santry-DCU, north east of Carpentstown and south just above Kildonan.

This is again another mainly working class\lower-middle class constituency on the north side of Dublin, with notable pockets of poverty around the Finglas area - In the 70s and 80s unemployment, even by standards of the time, was unbelievably high. Like most of Dublin, Construction is a major employer and there is an increased gentrification due to the high demand to have city centre property, with many new apartment blocks being built across the area at semi-affordable rents, though there is still some rural pockets in it's west end around Kildonan. There is also a couple of notable industrial estates in the north end of the constituency which are mainly foreign owned Pharmaceuticals, IT, etc despite this most of the towns here are basically commuter in nature. Turnout tends to be fairly low in elections with Fianna Fail taking roughly half the vote over the Three constituencies - Dublin North Central, Dublin Central, Dublin North West and Dublin North East. Labour in recent years have been stronger than Fine Gael here and there is a significant SF presence. Tends to be rather populist in nature and votes for incumbents regularly. Like plently in this region (and the country in general) it would turn strongly against Thatcher in the 1980s, hard with her around to see it not going for an independance party and sticking to it, despite the economic boom playing a major part in something of a mini-revival here.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Sean Haughey (Clann na nGael)

Dublin - Coolock & Ballymun

Constituency Includes Coolock, Darndale, Edenmore, Donaghmede, Whitehall, Dublin City University, Ballymun. Borders defined slightly south of Santry, north of Darndale and east of Edenmore.

Despite the inclusion of Dublin College University (DCU) - whose courses tend to be more business and technically orientated and thus less to likely to have a strong liberal lean than the wealthier southside universities anyway - This is not an area of Dublin known for it's liberalism. For many Irish people the word Ballymun brings to mind images of Tower blocks, inner city decline, blight, crime and all that entails. Like most of the other constituencies mentioned here there has been in recent years significant redevelopment and the infamous tower blocks which blighted sky here and were in 70s heradled as the solution to Ireland's property 'crisis', have been demolished. Despite increasing affluence here this is still by relative standards a pretty poor constituency with middle class enclaves in Coolock, which like most of the region is mainly driven by construction and foreign industry aswell as the predictable service firms. What has been said already for the North Inner Dublin constituencies also applies here - and the way it votes would be dependant on a number of factors, The distance it feels between it and westminster, the level of investment and most importantly in Ireland, Tradition. The whole region would likely vote en masse for one party and there is a significant and genuine very left-wing presence in the area. In British terms as said before it's pretty safe Labour seat, but Irish terms.. Would industrial workers desire independance or not and how much would the boom effect voting patterns (I'm assuming there still is a major boom, it hasn't really effected voting patterns much in Irish elections, but this is very different as a scenario) would be the key questions. In the 70s and 80s theses seats would be strongly CnaG and I will stick with them for here.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Finian McGrath (Clann na nGael)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

And to fit the Dublin constituencies into the British Parties:

Dublin - Liffey Valley: fairly safe LAB
Dublin - City of Dublin: Safe LAB
Dublin - Bayside: Leans LAB but has some strong LIB DEM and CON areas
Dublin - Finglas: The Very defintion of a safe LAB seat
Dublin - Coolock & Ballymun: See above
Dublin - Blanchardstown & West County: Lean LAB I think.
Dublin - North County: Strong CON
Dublin - Shelbourne & Ringsend: Leans CON.. I think, the Irish equivalent to Crouch end is here but also has some very working class areas.
Dublin - The Liberties & Driminagh: Safe LAB
Dublin - Ballyfermot & Clondalkin: Safe LAB
Dublin - Kingstown: LIB DEM-CON marginal I think, perhaps slightly LIB DEM.
Dublin - Donnybrook & Milltown: Fairly CON
Dublin - South County: Similiar to Kingstown actually; but would have lesser of a Labour presence. Leans CON.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Some detailed descriptions of the Dublin seats would be nice

(when thee posts them I'll have a guess at how they'd vote. As I have no life either).

I think, the Irish equivalent to Crouch end is here but also has some very working class areas.

Crouch End is LibDem

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Some detailed descriptions of the Dublin seats would be nice

(when thee posts them I'll have a guess at how they'd vote. As I have no life either).

I think, the Irish equivalent to Crouch end is here but also has some very working class areas.

Crouch End is LibDem

Completed three of them.

I know Crouch end is Lib Dem, what I meant was that there were alot of "Latte Liberals" in that constituency - it contains the bulk of Dublin 4 and Ballsbridge; where Ireland's most desirable property is based, the home of Royal Dublin Society, most of the major posh hotels, embassies, major businesses, etc but it also contains areas like Ringsend where employment is based mainly on energy and electricity production (Dublin's major power station, the two red-and-white lighthouse towers if you've ever been is located there) and has alot of things traditionally associated with lower-class Labour voters (ie. Council housing) and then there are classical upper middle class area like Rathmines and the traditional Jewish area (though not really significant anymore) around the Zion road.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hard to move these two from Dublin Northside as I had exceeded the word limit.

Dublin - Blanchardstown & West County

Constituency Includes Blanchardstown, Castleknock, Coolmine, Santry, The Dublin Airport region, the Rural western defined by the Ward River (Excluding the Swords and Malahide region) and Poppintree..

Very Divided constituency here, Castleknock is one of the most affulent regions in the Northside of Urban Dublin, the type of constituency filled with the Sunday Independent reading class - Formerly Lower-Middle class families who moved out into Affulent suburbs and tend to be conservative voters. Yet nearby down the road is Coolmire; an area noted for being home to Ireland's major methadone clinic and Blanchardstown itself is a major suburban centre, a major economic growth center with an increasingly liberal vote. On the Western end of the constituency there is a strong hard left vote around the Dublin Airport area where local unions have occasionally associated with the radical left-wing socialist party and this constituency includes the only dail constituencies where the Socialist party is relevant. Yet the Airport is Ireland's major centre of Trade - and is greatly beneficial to local foreign investment in Santry and local farmers, who are still somewhat significant here, and the North Dublin agrarian belt is possibly the most important agricultural area in the whole of Ireland it unlikely to go for independance. IPP probably wins with a split in the leftish vote.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Jim Glennon (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Dublin - North County

Constituency Includes the entire area of county Dublin north of the Broad Meadow river - including Balbriggan, Skerries, Rush, Lusk, Naul, Gormanstown and Donabate and the Swords-Malahide region.

I'll Quote from Wikipedia entry on Fingal county; even though that includes alot more of North Dublin than just this constituency the first bit describes this constituency particularly well: "Fingal is Ireland’s primary horticultural region, producing 50% of the national vegetable output and 75% of all glasshouse crops grown in the country. However, the areas of production are coming under severe pressure from other development and the rural towns are increasingly becoming dormitories for the City." - This constituency represents the stronghold of affulent market gardening in the Republic and like most of this type of farmers who make up a significant bulk of the constituency tend to vote for either FF or FG but tend to prefer general economic conservatives and it's hard to see them having a strong desire for independence and too much change to the economic status Quo. The increasing domitatory towns include Malahide which is well known as almost a town in it's own right, Medevil, Coastal and upper-Middle Class. There is though a significant soft left vote and occasional hard left vote in Swords; the main town and one of the fastest growing in Ireland and the seaside towns like Balbriggan and Rush where there tends to be a significant green vote - it is currently the Greens best constituency - the region also tends to be more socially liberal than alot of North Inner Dublin. Despite this it's hard to imagine anyone but the autonomist, nationalist yet Liberal Irish Parliamentary Party owning this seat - The landowners were of course Parnell's greatest supporters (aswell as General Mulcahy's!) and it's hard not to see that tradition (at least among major farmers; the smaller cottiers of the west would be different o\c) maintaining itself here. Labour and Conservatives battle it out for a distant second. Clann na nGael and Irish Socialist Labour have only some negiliable pockets of support.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Richard Bruton (Irish Parliamentary Party)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Finished North Dublin now and have completed Cork....


Cork City Suburbs (Moved from previous page as I exceeded the character limit):

Cork - Douglas & Ringaskiddy:

Constituency includes the Southside districts of Cork City - including Douglas plus the Outer towns of Passage West, Monkstown, Ballygarvan, Carrigaline and Ringaskiddy aswell as some more southern rural areas.

Quite Possibly the most class divided constituency of them all, in the 1980s the Area around Ringaskiddy and Cork Harbour was well known as some of the most economically depressed areas of Ireland, the country's "Rust belt" it was sometimes known as the major heavy industries (Ringaskiddy was one of the few places in the Republic where heavy industry was a significant employer) had all either departed to different shores or had gone bust in the economic crisis. But yet the area has some very Upper-Middle suburbs like Douglas and sleepy liberal conservative commuter towns like Carrigaline whose population has exploded in recent years as well as a fairly well off (though declining) rural vote, part of this due to the expansion of modern 'service' industries into the region in recent years and the regeneration of Cork Port. It's now probably the most Socially liberal constituency outside of Dublin and has been in Irish elections a strong hunting ground for both the Progressive Democrats and the Greens - both parties with strong Middle class credentials though it's always gone very strongly for the catch-all that is FF in general. Of course this is Cork and nationalism has always been a strong emotion here and it would be a safe CnaG in the 80s and early 90s but more transformed now it should go IPP, perhaps with a split between Labour and the CnaG.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Simon Coveney (Irish Parliamentary Party)

Cork - Blackpool & Blarney:

Constiuency includes the Northside districts of Cork City - including Fair Hill and Blackpool plus the Outer towns of East Ballincollig, Kerry Pike, Riverstown and Blarney.

Area of the City which is mainly suburban dominated by Industrial estates, new developments and in it's more outer regions - tourist towns (like Blarney) where the local populace is mostly commuters to the main city. This is also a small number of people employed in agricultural here, though it is getting less and less significant. Also contains a good portion of the commuter town of Ballincollig; which like alot of the region, tends to have a bit of Housing shortage. Construction is really a major industry here and as said before, given the boom would they really want to rock the boat? But also the north of Cork City is more negilected part of the City, inner working class suburbs like Sundays Well and Fair Hill predominate. But again think the nationalist tradition. Employment is mainly based aswell as that on the increasing presence of major multinationals; such as Apple computers who employ nearly 2,000 in the area. In it's voting patterns the North of Cork tends to be more traditional than it's southside with the PDs and Greens usually have very little real impact here and having more of socially conservative streak (Cork North Central voted against Divorce in 1995.. The only major urban constituency in the whole of Ireland to do so.)How the constituency would have voted in 2005 would be done to swing issues such as the regular Crime, Health and Housing. It's up in the air but I'll guess it would stick with the Clann like most of Cork.

Winner of the 2005 General Election: Noel O' Flynn (Clann na nGael)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Finished North Dublin now and have completed Cork - Douglas & Ringaskiddy - very interesting constituency actually..

Cool

I'll have a look over them now