Which state has a better chance of voting Democratic?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rare case where me and Rawlings completely agree.

[Tender Branson]

Clinton and Edwards would probably get a higher percentage in WV than in CO, while in the case that Obama's the nominee it would be reversed.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton and Edwards would probably get a higher percentage in WV than in CO, while in the case that Obama's the nominee it would be reversed.

I agree with you and since I still think Obama will win the nomination in the end, I voted for CO. Plus obviously Richardson would do better there.

[WalterMitty]

colorado

[CPT MikeyMike]

Colorado has a better chance but neither will go Democrat unless Bill Richardson is the nominee.

[ChipGardnerNH]

     This goes against the conventional wisdom, but I think West Virginia has a much better chance of going Democratic.  If you assume the Democratic nominee will be Hillary and the Republican nominee will either be Giuliani or Romney, neither of those are ideal candidates for West Virginia.  In the last election, Bush was tailor-made for blue-collar, socially conservative states like West Virginia because of his cowboy image while John Kerry was a very poor candidate for West Virginia because he was a wealthy, Northeastern liberal.  Bush is wealthy too and went to Yale, but he plays the part of a Texas cowboy (and I do consider it just playing the part).
     In this election, it will be a totally different dynamic.  Giuliani does not fit West Virginia at all.  He is an urban, pro-choice Republican with an elitist lifestyle.  Their very popular Governor is a pro-life Democrat, the opposite of Giuliani.  Romney is a little more compatible with West Virginia than Giuliani is, but I don't see him connecting with "NASCAR dads" as well as Bush did.  Plus his Mormonism will hurt him.  Hillary is not ideal for the state either, but Democrats do greatly outnumber Republicans in West Virginia, and I don't see enough of them crossing party lines to vote for a Giuliani or a Romney the way they did for Bush.
     Colorado is a totally different animal.  Recent polls show Romney narrowly leading Hillary there and Giuliani way ahead of her.  McCain would also do well being from a neighboring state.  Hillary's socialized medicine won't play that well in the West.  Furthermore, many upscale suburban voters who didn't think Bush was smart enough to do the job and voted for Kerry might opt for Romney, the preppy businessman, this time around.  I don't even think Colorado is in play despite the fact the Dems are having their convention there.
     I think the nominees will be Clinton and Romney.  My prediction:

     Colorado:  Romney by 10
     West Virginia:  Clinton by 2

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Clinton is the nominee, I expect her to carry West Virginia against Rudy, at least.

Meanwhile, I think just about any GOP nominee with a reasonable shot at taking the nomination will clear the bar in Colorado.  They just don't like the Clintons out there, and it seems like the type of Rocky Mountain GOP-leaning state that would be rather receptive to a more libertarian-minded candidate.

[AkSaber]

colorado

[RRB]

I think you guys are forgetting that WV is one of the most Democrat states in the entire country. Upwards of 3/4 of the state is registered Democrat.  Dukacas won WV!!!!!!!  In 2000 and 2004 the republicans went full tilt into the state with the old God, guns, and gays agenda and it worked.  Remember the swift boat ads?  They were first shown in WV.  Most people vote based on who does the best and most advertising.  The right also made claim that environmental ideals of the left would shut down the mines and jobs would be lost (I'll bet after mining disasters due to deregulation they wish they had a Democrat). The Democrats focused on a different path toward an electoral victory which was mainly Ohio and let WV go. 

[Person Man]

What if Clinton is not nominated? ...and what about Clinton/Richardson? That's the ticket that can both do well in the west and midwest.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

     This goes against the conventional wisdom, but I think West Virginia has a much better chance of going Democratic.

If that is conventional wisdom, it's fairly sad.

What's with the "EVERY ELECTION WILL BE LIKE EXACTLY LIKE 2004 AND THUS ARKANSAS AND WEST VIRGINIA WILL NEVER VOTE DEMOCRATIC EVER EVER AGAIN!" way of thinking?

[ChipGardnerNH]

I think you guys are forgetting that WV is one of the most Democrat states in the entire country. Upwards of 3/4 of the state is registered Democrat.  Dukacas won WV!!!!!!!  In 2000 and 2004 the republicans went full tilt into the state with the old God, guns, and gays agenda and it worked.  Remember the swift boat ads?  They were first shown in WV.  Most people vote based on who does the best and most advertising.  The right also made claim that environmental ideals of the left would shut down the mines and jobs would be lost (I'll bet after mining disasters due to deregulation they wish they had a Democrat). The Democrats focused on a different path toward an electoral victory which was mainly Ohio and let WV go. 

You say, "In 2000 and 2004 the republicans went full tilt into the state with the old God, guns, and gays agenda and it worked."  Why do you consider believing in God to be a negative thing?  I think it's nice if someone believes in God.  I do.

[AndrewTX]

     This goes against the conventional wisdom, but I think West Virginia has a much better chance of going Democratic.

If that is conventional wisdom, it's fairly sad.

What's with the "EVERY ELECTION WILL BE LIKE EXACTLY LIKE 2004 AND THUS ARKANSAS AND WEST VIRGINIA WILL NEVER VOTE DEMOCRATIC EVER EVER AGAIN!" way of thinking?

 I agree with you all the way BRTD. I mean, come on. I don't get why the hell people haven't just stopped having opinions of their own, and just agree with you that West Virginia, and Arkansas will never go Republican ever again.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's not my point at all. Just people who think AR and WV are now uber-GOP states on the national level seem to be thinking that two elections means everything and completely ignore the complete lack of any swing to the GOP on the state level. Or the fact that Giuliani has basically zero appeal in both as he is about as horrible a political a fit as is possible.

[jacob_101]

I say West Virginia.

[Rob]

Depends on the nominees.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Depends on the nominees.

That's true but on the whole Colorado has ALOT more chance of going dem than WV given how the dems are becoming more and more of a semilibertarian party and squeezing out their populists(and starting to do the same to their liberals).

[Nym90]

Colorado, although it depends on the candidates of course.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Colorado, although it depends on the candidates of course.

Edwards is the only nominee where I see WV as having any chance of going dem.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Depends on the nominees.

That's true but on the whole Colorado has ALOT more chance of going dem than WV given how the dems are becoming more and more of a semilibertarian party and squeezing out their populists(and starting to do the same to their liberals).

So what about against Giuliani, who has no populist appeal?

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

WV becomes a free for all swing state.

[Person Man]

That's not my point at all. Just people who think AR and WV are now uber-GOP states on the national level seem to be thinking that two elections means everything and completely ignore the complete lack of any swing to the GOP on the state level. Or the fact that Giuliani has basically zero appeal in both as he is about as horrible a political a fit as is possible.

W.Va. swung from like a +6 state to a +10 state in just four years and four years before that, it swung from a -5 to a +5. There is a culture war going on and our nation has become polarized. Maybe this is unprecedented. Maybe if a party is really robbed of their podium in 2008 or continually robbed until 2016, maybe one party will collapse or, like last time we had this polarization, a civil war.

Colorado, otoh, went from +10 to +6 to +2 in 8 years. They probably won't lean blue, but maybe the natl average will play out there in 2008, meaning that if the dems win the popular vote, they will carry CO and vice-versa. I think the dems will have to win 56% before they can break 50 in the next election, especially with Obama....Clinton? Who knows.

[auburntiger]

I say West Virginia. It's just that there are so many more registered Democrats there than in Colorado. Colorado has a strong conservative base, like Virginia, though it is decreasing, is still a force to be reckoned with to the ones who think Colorado is a shoe-in to vote Dem.

West Virginia on the other hand, as probably mentioned previously, does not have a strong conservative base, for Bush had to appeal to Democratic voters, who only voted for him in spite of Gore and Kerry. I think the Dems have learned their lessons about W VA...appeal to the coal mining industry and W VA will vote Dem. I think it's honestly as simple as that. It was truly a shock that Gore lost it in 2000, and Bush's margin of victory in 2004.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think CO is the better shot - it's leaning dem strongly congressionally - it's been pretty close in the last 2 elections - but WV has been moving further away from the Dems nationally. Yes, I know Bush factor - but I think it might take another cycle to see WV really truly competitive. I hope I'm wrong.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's not my point at all. Just people who think AR and WV are now uber-GOP states on the national level seem to be thinking that two elections means everything and completely ignore the complete lack of any swing to the GOP on the state level. Or the fact that Giuliani has basically zero appeal in both as he is about as horrible a political a fit as is possible.

W.Va. swung from like a +6 state to a +10 state in just four years and four years before that, it swung from a -5 to a +5. There is a culture war going on and our nation has become polarized. Maybe this is unprecedented. Maybe if a party is really robbed of their podium in 2008 or continually robbed until 2016, maybe one party will collapse or, like last time we had this polarization, a civil war.

Colorado, otoh, went from +10 to +6 to +2 in 8 years. They probably won't lean blue, but maybe the natl average will play out there in 2008, meaning that if the dems win the popular vote, they will carry CO and vice-versa. I think the dems will have to win 56% before they can break 50 in the next election, especially with Obama....Clinton? Who knows.

This is the trend line fallacy. To draw a line of the change between two elections and then expect that that trend will continue on indefinately is a very foolish thing that I doubt any professional does.

The thing one should look at it is that all the Democratic candidates are better candidates for WV than Kerry or Gore and all the Republican candidates are pretty awful for it, especially Giuliani. Can anyone imagine how badly a candidate like Giuliani would get destroyed running for Governor or some other statewide office in WV?