Alternative 1972: Nixon dosen't run

[Julian Francis]

In November 1971, President Richard M. Nixon makes a shock decision, that being that he won't be running for re-election as President of the United States!

With President Nixon not running for re-election, Vice President Agnew jumps into the Presidential race likewise with Governors Ronald Reagan of California and Nelson Rockefeller of New York. The race is seen to be neck-and-neck between Vice President Agnew and Governor Reagan until the New Hampshire primary, where Governor Reagan wins with 58% of the vote. From his victory in New Hampshire, Governor Reagan is able to put a "lock" on the GOP Nomination.

At the Republican National Convention in Miami Beach, Florida, Governor Reagan selects Senator Howard Baker of Tennesee to be his running mate.

Whilst on the Democratic side, the Democrats nominate former Vice President of the United States and the 1968 Democratic Presidential nominee Hubert H. Humphrey of Minnesota. For Vice President, Senator Humphrey selects fellow Senator Fred R. Harris of Oklahoma.

Discuss with maps.

[Julian Francis]

Just to remind you guys the 1972 Presidential tickets are:

Republicans

 

Gov. Ronald Reagan (CA)  Sen. Howard Baker (TN)

Democratic

 

Sen. Hubert Humphrey (MN) Sen. Fred R. Harris (OK)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Absent health problems or blackmail, I can't imagine Nixon not running for a second term, even if in some alt-history he had Bush's current popularity numbers.

Also, I can't see the Democrats giving the nomination to Humphrey under any circumstances.  In real life, Humphrey came in sixth at the 1972 convention, behind even Rep. Shirley Chisholm and Gov. Terry Sanford.  Far likelier that Sen. Scoop Jackson (who came in second), or if he avoids getting shot, Gov. George Wallace (who came in third) wins the nomination if you insist on changing both real life nominees.

Finally, I can't Baker being confident enough in 1972 to simultaneously run for Vice President and Senator, or relinquishing his Senate seat to run only for Vice President.  Baker won his seat in 1966 in large part to Democratic in-fighting.

There's just too many implausible things here for me suspend disbelief and accept this an alternate election.

[Lincoln Republican]

Julian Francis, welcome to the forum.

Humphrey does much better against Reagan than McGovern does against Nixon in 1972, but Reagan wins comfortably.

By 1972, Reagan was a well known national figure, with a reputation as a successful and forceful Governor.

Harris fails to deliver Oklahoma for the Democrats.  Reagan's appeal in the south, against Humphrey, is simply too strong.

In 1972, The Republicans had just held the White House for 4 years, and the nation would still be willing to elect a credible Republican, such as Reagan, as President.  The Nixon term had been a good one, and the voters would not change party administrations by 1972.     

Reagan/Baker                         328
Humphrey/Harris                     210

[gorkay]

I agree that Agnew would have had a hard time getting the nomination, unless Nixon threw his support to him wholeheartedly. But I think Reagan would have had a hard time too. I think it a lot more likely that someone like John Connally would have been nominated.

It's also hard to envision Humphrey getting nominated in 1972. True, the Democrats might have been marginally more disciplined if in Nixon's absence they thought they had a better shot at winning, but only marginally.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Reagan/Baker: 287
Humphrey/Harris: 251