Which Social Democratic party in Europe is most likely to collapse?

[politicus]

Well?

(I know its trollish to include SPD and that you can argue Pasok has already collapsed, but what the heck.. Just give me your pearls of wisdoms).

Tempted to say Danish SD given recent polling.. , but have to say Irish Labour, after all.

[You kip if you want to...]

Pasok, obviously.

Or Scottish Labour should certain cards be dealt in a certain way, if you catch my drift.

[Sibboleth]

What do you mean by 'collapse'? Suffer a particularly awful electoral defeat or implode like the PSI?

In the case of the Danish Social Democrats, seriously grim midterm polls aren't always reflected in General Elections; I write as a member of the Labour Party who remembers exactly how low we were polling at various points in 2008 and 2009. In the case of the SPD, the issue is a state of chronic inertia, which is not exactly good, but which is miles away from collapse.

Though, of course, PASOK which pretty much has clearly collapsed on some level and has lost its function in Greek political life... but then, it was never actually a social democratic party, and it's debatable whether Irish Labour is/has ever been much more of one (or which parts of it or whatever).

[Tender Branson]

You forgot to include the Vorarlberg and Tyrol SPÖ's.

And also the SPÖ in my home state Salzburg will collapse in the state election on May 5.

[Californian Tony]

The Italian PD is the correct answer.

[Insula Dei]

What's 'collapse' supposed to mean?

A party can do horrible in election after election without its infrastructure and function in the political landscape neccessarily disappearing. I think social-democratic parties pretty much everywhere in Western Europe are only at a real risk of disapppearing if their position in the existing political system is usurped by another party (which is unlikely in most cases), or if the system collapses (Greece).

[politicus]

What's 'collapse' supposed to mean?

A party can do horrible in election after election without its infrastructure and function in the political landscape necessarily disappearing. I think social-democratic parties pretty much everywhere in Western Europe are only at a real risk of disappearing if their position in the existing political system is usurped by another party (which is unlikely in most cases), or if the system collapses (Greece).

I know its a bit vague, but I meant disappear as a political force, either by splitting up in smaller groups or getting below the threshold. If I use Denmark as an example their votes could be split between an increasingly more moderate Red-Green Alliance (left wingers), DPP & Liberals (workers in the private sector) and a new SD party based on public employee unions (public employees and academics), thereby making the party unnecessary.

[You kip if you want to...]

Pasok, obviously.

Or Scottish Labour should certain cards be dealt in a certain way, if you catch my drift.

Or even the SNP for that matter should things go how most expect.

[Leftbehind]

Pasok, obviously.

Or Scottish Labour should certain cards be dealt in a certain way, if you catch my drift.

Or even the SNP for that matter should things go how most expect.

I've never really understand the notion they'll suddenly collapse if the referendum fails? Most of their support seems in spite of their independence policy, with most of their supports, at most, friendly to devolution. Rather it's the social democratic stances they've espoused (free prescriptions, tuitions etc) that seems to be their main attraction.

Even for those wanting independence, they wouldn't suddenly stop wanting it just because it failed. They'd carry on supporting SNP, in much the same way any other parties supporters cope with setbacks?

I mean, PQ's gone nowhere since their referendum failure, so what makes people think it'd happen for the SNP? It seems most are touting this as a possibility through wishful thinking.

 

[politicus]

Pasok, obviously.

Or Scottish Labour should certain cards be dealt in a certain way, if you catch my drift.

Why? Even if Scotland should become independent, which nothing suggests right now, Scottish Labour would clearly remain the main opposition party in this scenario.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

Appart from PASOK? I'd say that the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC) is at risk of imploding. Nowadays the party is losing support in all directions and suffering a severe internal crisis. One reason is the conflict between its links with the Spanish Socialists (PSOE) and its federalist tradition, which is not well assumed by some socialists in the rest of Spain. Also the split between its two historical 'souls': the middle-class Catalanist and its working-class base in places populated with people coming from regions like Andalucia. Nationalist parties are taking advantage on the first sector and 'unionist' or 'centralist' populist parties such as Ciutadans on the second. The relationship with PSOE in Madrid has been deteriorated, because PSC supports a referendum in Catalonia, what is called the 'right to decide'. Federal PSOE dislikes the idea. Still, the party is the second force in Catalonia, but it managed to got a 45% of the vote in the 2008 General Election, dropping almost a 20% in the one held in 2011, and polling below 15% in the last Catalan election.

[DC Al Fine]

Pasok, obviously.

Or Scottish Labour should certain cards be dealt in a certain way, if you catch my drift.

Or even the SNP for that matter should things go how most expect.

I've never really understand the notion they'll suddenly collapse if the referendum fails? Most of their support seems in spite of their independence policy, with most of their supports, at most, friendly to devolution. Rather it's the social democratic stances they've espoused (free prescriptions, tuitions etc) that seems to be their main attraction.

Even for those wanting independence, they wouldn't suddenly stop wanting it just because it failed. They'd carry on supporting SNP, in much the same way any other parties supporters cope with setbacks?

I mean, PQ's gone nowhere since their referendum failure, so what makes people think it'd happen for the SNP? It seems most are touting this as a possibility through wishful thinking.

 

If anything, parties like SNP & PQ are more likely to die if an independence referendum passed.

[politicus]

The Italian PD is the correct answer.

Only if you define it as SD. Its a very broad wishy-washy centrist alliance with some left wing tilt.

Not that most European SDs are genuinely leftist theses days, but this is still even more blurred than most and without a historical Social Democratic identity.
 

[Californian Tony]

The Italian PD is the correct answer.

Only if you define it as SD. Its a very broad wishy-washy centrist alliance with some left wing tilt.

Not that most European SDs are genuinely leftist theses days, but this is still even more blurred than most and without a historical Social Democratic identity.

You are right actually, my bad.

And yeah, of these, PASOK is the most likely to completely die off.

[Vasall des Midas]

What's 'collapse' supposed to mean?

A party can do horrible in election after election without its infrastructure and function in the political landscape necessarily disappearing. I think social-democratic parties pretty much everywhere in Western Europe are only at a real risk of disappearing if their position in the existing political system is usurped by another party (which is unlikely in most cases), or if the system collapses (Greece).

I know its a bit vague, but I meant disappear as a political force, either by splitting up in smaller groups or getting below the threshold.

What about disappearing into a large and much more amorphous "party"? As happened in Italy (kind of - a good chunk of the old PSI vote in Lombardy went over to the right with the early 90s alignment. The PSDI does not, of course, count as a Social Democratic Party at all.)

[politicus]

What's 'collapse' supposed to mean?

A party can do horrible in election after election without its infrastructure and function in the political landscape necessarily disappearing. I think social-democratic parties pretty much everywhere in Western Europe are only at a real risk of disappearing if their position in the existing political system is usurped by another party (which is unlikely in most cases), or if the system collapses (Greece).

I know its a bit vague, but I meant disappear as a political force, either by splitting up in smaller groups or getting below the threshold.

What about disappearing into a large and much more amorphous "party"? As happened in Italy (kind of - a good chunk of the old PSI vote in Lombardy went over to the right with the early 90s alignment. The PSDI does not, of course, count as a Social Democratic Party at all.)

Yes, that is a distinct possibility where you got a FPTP system - or any mixed system resembling that in some way. Coming from a PR country where fragmentation is much more likely I didnt really consider that.

[Peter the Lefty]

PASOK, easily.  12% in the last election, 5% now.  You do the math.  Can't wait for the next election.  So eager to see them out of parliament.

[batmacumba]

If Enhedslisten become able to build a platform that avoid scaring center-left voters (opposite to the Dutch SP) I think that the Danish Social-Democrats are a clear second best option.