Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Today's Irish Times website

[patrick1]

Today's Irish Times website

There is just so much wrong with this webgrab on content, layout and Enda himself. And when did Keano become homeless lunatic

[ObserverIE]

Crosstabs of MRBI poll here.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Some.... interesting opinions from my local representative here:

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[Oakvale]

Kind of the opposite take I would have expected from someone rambling about the gene pool and IQ scores.

[ObserverIE]

Kind of the opposite take I would have expected from someone rambling about the gene pool and IQ scores.

But what effect would increasing IQ scores have on the FG vote in Stillorgan?

[Oakvale]

Not sure if we can touch much on the other big story of the last week (every news article I've seen has the comments closed to avoid legal problems) so I'll just leave this here.

[ObserverIE]

My feeling is, that rather like the arrest for IRA activities before the May election, it will not have the deterrent effect on SF support that other parties and the media might hope for.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Two recent polls

Sunday Times/B&A poll

IND/OTH 28 (+4) (Incl. Greens on 3)
FG 25 (+1)
SF 19 (nc)
FF 18 (nc)
Labour 9 (-5)

RED C

IND/OTH 28% (+5)
FG 26% (-2)
SF 20% (-3)
FF 18% (NC)
Lab 8% (NC)

[Oakvale]

I see B&A has reverted to the mean after that weird poll a few months back.

[ObserverIE]

Two recent polls

Sunday Times/B&A poll

Ind/Oth 25 (+3)
FG 25 (+1)
SF 19 (-)
FF 18 (-)
Lab 9 (-5)
GP 3 (+1)

RED C

FG 26 (-2)
Ind/Oth 24 (+3)
SF 20 (-3)
FF 18 (-)
Lab 8 (-)
GP 2 (-)
SP t/a AAA 1 (+1)
SWP t/a PBP 1 (+1)

So a chunk of the "plague on all your houses" vote shifts from SF to "Ind/Oth", at least for the moment.

[ObserverIE]

I see B&A has reverted to the mean after that weird poll a few months back.

B&A adjust the bejazes out of their polls so anything can happen from one to the next depending on flukes in the initial sample.

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Sounds like a normal day on Crank Central politics.ie.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS for tomorrow's Sindo:

SF 26 (+4)
Ind/Oth 23 (-)
FG 22 (-3)
FF 20 (-1)
Lab 7 (-2)
GP 1 (-)

Watching the Sindo trying to rationalise this one will be... interesting.

I leave you with a gem from the ever-perceptive Stephen Collins's column in the Irish Times from a few weeks back:

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[MaxQue]

I'm astonish than the usual government party, Fianna Fail, failed to recover after it lost.

[ObserverIE]

I'm astonish than the usual government party, Fianna Fail, failed to recover after it lost.

That's because they're still widely blamed for the economic mismanagement that led to the property bubble and its subsequent collapse.

However, FG have managed to outdo them over the last three years in terms of arrogance (not particularly surprising, given the social base of FG leadership cadres) and Labour have outdone them in terms of a reputation for cynicism and dishonesty, with both parties looking out for the interest of their own core supporters in terms of patronage and basically demonstrating "business as usual" despite initial promises of reform.

The current economic recovery is viewed as allowing Dublin and a few other metropolitan areas to overheat (with the consequent return of a property bubble in Dublin) while the rest of the country is left to rot. Average household incomes are continuing to decline.

Add to that the imposition of a consumption-based water charge unrelated to income (this government has been very fond of these kinds of flattish taxes) by a newly-established company which is under the ownership of an existing state utility, but treated as being private for borrowing purposes. The charge is notionally fixed at about €180 per person initially but is likely to rise sharply after the next election 2016 and there's a widespread belief that it's being prepared for privatisation (previous privatisation of utilities has led to them being passed from one venture capitalist to another and loaded with debt while the infrastructure stagnates). There were demonstrations today totalling about 160,000 people against the process.

This evening's poll comes after a two-week all-pervasive media sh*tstorm in which Adams and SF were being attacked by other political parties and by pretty much all media outlets in the Republic over the Máiria Cahill case. The Sindo last Sunday had something like 40 articles dealing with the story, all attacking Adams and SF. (The notion of "overkill" never seems to occur to the Irish media.)

SF are still likely to underpoll in comparison with these figures because they're dependent on demographic groups (the young and working-class) who turn out in low numbers on election day, whereas FF will overpoll because of a variation of the "shy Tory" effect, but both FG and Labour are now in deep, deep trouble. Irish Water looks to be for them what Anglo-Irish was for FF.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

From the pen of Pat Rabbitte Labour TD for Dublin South West and former cabinet minister concerning the recent left turn in his constituency:

[ObserverIE]

RedC poll this evening reported as being:

Ind/Oth 24 (-)
FG 22 (-4)
SF 22 (+2)
FF 18 (-)
Lab 8 (-)
GP 3 (+1)
SP t/a AAA 2 (+1)
SWP t/a PBP 1 (-)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hilarious

[ObserverIE]

Given that almost all of the f**k-ups of this government ("logarithmic progressions", Shattergate, McNultygate, Irish Water) have been the responsibility of FG, it's only natural justice that they're finally getting a hiding in terms of popular support.

[Oakvale]

New Irish Times poll out, figures are as follows:


Gombeens, Trots and ward-heelers:

Sinn Fein:

 

Fine Gael:



Fianna Fail:



Labour:

[ObserverIE]

Or, in a more conventional format:

Ind/Oth 29 (+8)
SF 22 (-2)
FF 21 (+1)
FG 19 (-5)
Lab 6 (-3)
GP 3 (+1)

That FG tactic of defining the next election as being solely between themselves and Teh Evil Shinners is working out really well for them.

You can almost smell the panic emanating from the media/lobbyist class at this stage.

Edit: Details in the form of nifty bar charts and combo boxes here.

FG vote collapsing everywhere except among the upper-middle classes (AB) and farmers (F1/F2) - although FF have overhauled them in the latter category.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The only remotely intelligent thing I can say to this is: lol.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What's this I've heard about a supposed new party lead by Shane Ross and/or Lucinda Creighton?

also, lol, wtf, can't wait till next election.

[ObserverIE]

I think that photo of the Healy-Raes captures things masterfully.

Healy-Rae senior passes on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

RIP, FF