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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1325 on: January 23, 2018, 07:08:04 PM »
« edited: January 23, 2018, 07:26:26 PM by Kevinstat »

There might be an extra European MEP for Ireland if Britain Brexits promptly.

In fact, the Parliament's Constitutional committee has proposed 2 extra MEPs, so the national delegation will rocket from 11 to 13. This could mean a return to the traditional alignment of constituencies, being 2 in Leinster, 1 in Munster and 1 Connacht + Ulster + peripheries of Leinster and Munster.

Yeah, I just tweaked an existing spreadsheet and plugged in the 2007 plan (used in the 2009 European Parliament elections), which had Clare from Munster and Longford and Westmeath from Leinster (outside County Dublin) in the North-West constituency, and I just added an extra seat to Dublin (since there are 13 seats while there were 12 in the 2007 plan) and it comes out pretty nice numbers-wise (using the 2016 census numbers).  Dublin (the traditional County, with 4 seats) is −8.04%, East (Leinster minus Dublin, Longford and Westmeath) is +5.32%, North-West (Connaght-Ulster plus Clare, Longford and Westmeath) is −0.27% and South (Munster minus Clare) is +5.67%.

That may seem like excessive deviation, but the variances for the equivalent constituencies (Dublin, East, North-West and South) were −6.84%, +8.72%, −9.92% and +10.33% in the 2003 review, +12.00%, −6.20%, −6.03% and +0.23% in the 2007 review, and +10.99%, −3.53%, −5.87% and −1.58% in the 2012 review (which made no changes, but next year there was a new review as Ireland was going down to 11 seats).  Longford and Westmeath were still in the East constituency until the 2007 review went into effect.  The 2003 review was when Clare moved to the North-West constituency (it moved back to the South in the 2013 review when Ireland went down to 11 seats and 3 constituencies).

I just checked, though, while I was composing the above and saw that shifting Wicklow into the Dublin constituency would bring it to +1.68% for 4 seats out of 13.  East would be at −7.64% though.  Shifting Tipperary from South to east would bring East from −7.64% to +6.88% and South from +5.67% to −8.85%, so slightly worse.  But that suggests that shifting say, the old North Tipperary "riding" would bring East and South close to equal with each other (and those two constituencies would average −0.98% without Wicklow).  (Clare, Longford and Westmeath would be in the North-West constituency here.)  But dividing a traditional and now functioning (for the time being at least; I've heard a lot of people still want it split back) county among European parliamentary constituencies probably wouldn't fly.  Since County Dublin isn't quite a whole neighboring county short of 4 quotas with 13 seats, I could see the commission letting it be a 4-seater on its own, like they let it be a large 3-seater in 2007.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1326 on: January 23, 2018, 08:25:06 PM »
« Edited: January 23, 2018, 08:37:38 PM by Kevinstat »

There might be an extra European MEP for Ireland if Britain Brexits promptly.

In fact, the Parliament's Constitutional committee has proposed 2 extra MEPs, so the national delegation will rocket from 11 to 13. This could mean a return to the traditional alignment of constituencies, being 2 in Leinster, 1 in Munster and 1 Connacht + Ulster + peripheries of Leinster and Munster.

Yeah, I just tweaked an existing spreadsheet and plugged in the 2007 plan (used in the 2009 European Parliament elections), which had Clare from Munster and Longford and Westmeath from Leinster (outside County Dublin) in the North-West constituency, and I just added an extra seat to Dublin (since there are 13 seats while there were 12 in the 2007 plan) and it comes out pretty nice numbers-wise (using the 2016 census numbers).  Dublin (the traditional County, with 4 seats) is −8.04%, East (Leinster minus Dublin, Longford and Westmeath) is +5.32%, North-West (Connaght-Ulster plus Clare, Longford and Westmeath) is −0.27% and South (Munster minus Clare) is +5.67%.

That may seem like excessive deviation, but the variances for the equivalent constituencies (Dublin, East, North-West and South) were −6.84%, +8.72%, −9.92% and +10.33% in the 2003 review, +12.00%, −6.20%, −6.03% and +0.23% in the 2007 review, and +10.99%, −3.53%, −5.87% and −1.58% in the 2012 review (which made no changes, but next year there was a new review as Ireland was going down to 11 seats).  Longford and Westmeath were still in the East constituency until the 2007 review went into effect.  The 2003 review was when Clare moved to the North-West constituency (it moved back to the South in the 2013 review when Ireland went down to 11 seats and 3 constituencies).

I just checked, though, while I was composing the above and saw that shifting Wicklow into the Dublin constituency would bring it to +1.68% for 4 seats out of 13.  East would be at −7.64% though.  Shifting Tipperary from South to east would bring East from −7.64% to +6.88% and South from +5.67% to −8.85%, so slightly worse.  But that suggests that shifting say, the old North Tipperary "riding" would bring East and South close to equal with each other (and those two constituencies would average −0.98% without Wicklow).  (Clare, Longford and Westmeath would be in the North-West constituency here.)  But dividing a traditional and now functioning (for the time being at least; I've heard a lot of people still want it split back) county among European parliamentary constituencies probably wouldn't fly.  Since County Dublin isn't quite a whole neighboring county short of 4 quotas with 13 seats, I could see the commission letting it be a 4-seater on its own, like they let it be a large 3-seater in 2007.

I just came up with two "least change" plans that keep 3 constituencies.  (The fact the Ireland had 4 constituencies with 12 seats obscures the fact that even with 13 seats, there are more options with 3 constituencies than 4 (3-5-5 and 4-4-5 vs. just 3-3-3-4).)  The first shifts Wicklow to from South to Dublin and Laois and Offaly from Midlands-North-West (which perhaps would be due for a renaming without Laois and Offaly) to South, with Dublin(-Wicklow) and South each gaining a seat (Dublin(-Wicklow) becoming a 4-seater and South a 5-seater).  Dublin(-Wicklow) would be +1.68%, South would be −4.53% and the northern constituency (which would still include Kildare) would be +3.98%.

The second "least change" plan (from the point of view of expanding the Dublin constituency into the sprawling Midlands-North-West constituency until, "Whoops, we're too big for four now, might as well go for five"), shifts Kildare, Meath and Louth from Midlands-North-West to Dublin and just Laois from Midlands-North-West to South, with Dublin (renamed North-East) gaining two seats to become a 5-seater (+3.40%), South gaining a seat to become a 5-seater (−1.01%; the current South would only be −5.63% for 5 seats out of 13), and Midlands-North-West (which would shed the "Midlands" from its name) losing a seat to become a 3-seater (−3.99%).  This plan is my favorite one so far.  Laois and Offaly would be in different constituencies (Offaly would remain in the North-West constituency), but it looks fairly neat on a map.
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EPG
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« Reply #1327 on: January 24, 2018, 01:48:27 PM »

Fun facts saying something about differential strengths of local identity and solidarity: Leinster ex-Dublin is home to 1 MEP and 1.3 million people. County Cork is home to 3 MEPs and half a million people.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1328 on: January 25, 2018, 05:17:32 PM »

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 34 (-2)
FF 25 (-)
SF 19 (-)
Ind/Oth 12 (+3)
Lab 4 (-)
GP 3 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (+1)
SD 1 (-)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1329 on: January 27, 2018, 01:40:30 PM »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 32 (+5)
FF 26 (-)
SF 15 (-1)
Ind/Oth 12 (-2)
Lab 6 (-)
GP 4 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
SD 2 (-1)
Renua 0 (-1)
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AelroseB
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« Reply #1330 on: January 29, 2018, 07:51:34 PM »

https://www.politico.eu/article/irish-government-backs-may-abortion-vote/

"The Irish government agreed late Monday to back a referendum on repealing Ireland’s abortion ban.

Prime Minister Leo Varadkar announced that his Cabinet formally agreed to hold a vote on repealing the ban at the 'end of May.' He said the exact date would be determined after the Irish parliament, where there’s strong support for a referendum, has its formal say in March."
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« Reply #1331 on: January 30, 2018, 03:46:16 AM »

Maps of TD support for 8th amendment repeal
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EPG
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« Reply #1332 on: January 30, 2018, 04:41:12 PM »
« Edited: January 30, 2018, 04:42:46 PM by EPG »

https://www.politico.eu/article/irish-government-backs-may-abortion-vote/

"The Irish government agreed late Monday to back a referendum on repealing Ireland’s abortion ban.

Prime Minister Leo Varadkar announced that his Cabinet formally agreed to hold a vote on repealing the ban at the 'end of May.' He said the exact date would be determined after the Irish parliament, where there’s strong support for a referendum, has its formal say in March."

It's uncanny to see ministers Coveney and Harris leading the opposite sides within the government, albeit they both support a referendum. They would have been the top two in Cabinet if the Fine Gael leadership race went differently.


It'll pass the Dáil because no Dublin TD outside FF the pensioners' party can safely oppose the bill, but the electorate is a harder challenge. The Sinn Féin whip is visible in Laois and Offaly in the map above. Most conservative constituencies are generally in the middle-west of Ireland in a strip from Monaghan to North-West Cork, far from city commuters and with only one third-level institution in Athlone to attract young people. Contrast to the Seán Gallagher map:
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EPG
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« Reply #1333 on: February 03, 2018, 08:09:14 AM »

Nigel visited and talked guff about Dublin being a bubble for pro-EU sentiment and people outside Dublin being more resentful. Anyone with a bit of knowledge would have known that CAP and structural funds have made the EU more popular outside Dublin whether 1972 or 2012.
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EPG
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« Reply #1334 on: February 11, 2018, 08:45:25 AM »

Sinn Féin has officially elected its third leader, Mary Lou McDonald (TD, Dublin Central). She succeeds Gerry Adams, who was party president for 34 years. This was the expected outcome and she is has an established national presence in the south: she was an MEP before Leo Varadkar was a TD, and most recently vice-president of her party for the last decade.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1335 on: February 17, 2018, 04:07:06 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times

FG 36 (+4)
FF 25 (-1)
SF 16 (-2)
Ind/Oth 13 (-)
Lab 5 (-1)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 1 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

Usual word of warning about B&A's figures tending to jump round more than most.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1336 on: February 18, 2018, 08:32:58 AM »

IMS/Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent:

FG 36 (+6)
FF 28 (-1)
SF 20 (-)
Ind/Oth 9 (-3)
Lab 4 (-3)
GP 2 (-)
SP/SWP 1 (-)
SD 1 (+1)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1337 on: February 24, 2018, 01:26:07 PM »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 32 (-)
FF 29 (+3)
SF 14 (-1)
Ind/Oth 13 (+1)
Lab 6 (-)
SD 2 (-)
GP 2 (-2)
SP/SWP 1 (-2)
Renua 1 (+1)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1338 on: March 17, 2018, 07:15:30 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times

FG 32 (-4)
FF 27 (+2)
SF 19 (+3)
Ind/Oth 14 (+1)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-2)
GP 1 (-)
SD 0 (-1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

Usual word of warning about B&A's figures tending to jump round more than most.
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« Reply #1339 on: March 17, 2018, 07:23:13 PM »

is Solidarity-PBP in the "Other" Category?
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Mazda
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« Reply #1340 on: March 17, 2018, 08:07:18 PM »

No, Observer is calling them SP/SWP as both Solidarity and People Before Profit are fronts of the Socialist Party and the Socialist Workers Party respectively.
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EPG
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« Reply #1341 on: March 17, 2018, 08:22:44 PM »


ObserverIE is referring to Solidarity-PBP by their legal names from the antediluvian period that was the Bertie 2000s. Perhaps I will start calling Mary Lou McDonald, president of PSF!

Note that like other parties whose brand is weaker than the constituent personalities, Sol-PBP opinion poll figures tend to be very low as their leading militants will be known by name rather than party label, or put another way, Sol+PBP+Greens+SD will get more than 1%. (Remember the ballot paper emphasises personality rather than party, and looks like this:
)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1342 on: March 18, 2018, 01:02:14 AM »
« Edited: March 18, 2018, 01:05:44 AM by ObserverIE »


ObserverIE is referring to Solidarity-PBP by their legal names from the antediluvian period that was the Bertie 2000s. Perhaps I will start calling Mary Lou McDonald, president of PSF!

Note that like other parties whose brand is weaker than the constituent personalities, Sol-PBP opinion poll figures tend to be very low as their leading militants will be known by name rather than party label, or put another way, Sol+PBP+Greens+SD will get more than 1%. (Remember the ballot paper emphasises personality rather than party, and looks like this:
)

I am referring to both by the names of the legal parties whose front organisations they are - the SP are still registered separately from AAA/Solidarity; I'm not certain about the SWP; both have a reputation as operating through fronts (and, in the case of the SP, a level of sectarianism that makes the KKE look like the Unitarian Universalists) and renaming those fronts whenever needed. The puppets may occasionally change costume but the hands up their arses remain the same. It also creates a point of reference for UK posters, seeing as both are simply offshoots of their UK motherships of the same name.

If I really wanted to be snide, I'd refer to them as the Committee for a Workers' International and the International Socialists.
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EPG
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« Reply #1343 on: March 18, 2018, 05:11:26 AM »

My own memoirs on this topic. I heard somewhere that Joan Collins TD, elected for PBPA in 2011, was genuinely part of the broad left rather than SWP. Needless to say, she quit PBPA mid-term... I've also been to some meetings of new, local, ostensibly grassroots campaigns, at which it becomes clear that every headliner and speaker from the audience is also a member of both PBP and SWP.

Hard to compare them to the British, though. There's no evidence that the sins of SWP are replicated in PBP: that looks more like Sinn Féin's bailiwick at the moment, amid dozens of political resignations over alleged bullying / incompetence.

Plus, Solidarity + PBP both happily adopt populist left stances far from any doctrine. They can change the weather: the most remarkable fact about 2011-16 was that on water charges, Paul Murphy (Solidarity, then called, maybe, AAA? I don't remember) won the by-election and scared SF into joining the intransigent opposition, SF thereby scared FF, and that canned water charges. As for PBP, they are much more successful, almost retail politicians, than British SWP.

The SP-SWP mutual hostility was something to behold in the 2000s when they had 0 to 1 seats in the Dáil. I once asked one SP militant what was the difference. Quick as a flash, "We don't think Hezbollah is good". KKE-Syriza circa 2010 is a good comparison. Dear outside observers: these people are not built to take power, or even participate in power.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1344 on: March 18, 2018, 02:54:55 PM »

My own memoirs on this topic. I heard somewhere that Joan Collins TD, elected for PBPA in 2011, was genuinely part of the broad left rather than SWP. Needless to say, she quit PBPA mid-term... I've also been to some meetings of new, local, ostensibly grassroots campaigns, at which it becomes clear that every headliner and speaker from the audience is also a member of both PBP and SWP.

Collins had been in the CWI/SP/Militant but had had a falling out with them, which might have served to indicate an independence of mind, and indeed herself and Clare Daly are probably the most recognisably human of the Trot/Trot-lite TDs. There was also the fact that the SWP had one of their own cult members in place in the constituency and were always going to try to undermine her in the same way as they did to Paul Murphy in the Euro elections.

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We can't know that. We wouldn't have known of Comrade Delta except by chance. (#misefreisin?) Both parties are offshoots of their British equivalents and they're not exactly open as to the degree of influence that one has over the other.

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Their tactics - latch on to any protest, hand out the placards, set up the front organisations, use them to recruit leaflet-droppers - are exactly the same. They've been gifted two very good retail politicians - Boyd Barrett in Dún Laoghaire (the acting pedigree no doubt helps) and Joe Higgins. Coppinger and Murphy are driving on Joe's fumes and provided that a future government does nothing as absolutely cack-handed as Phil Hogan's management of water charges or the Jobstown prosecutions, I'm not sure that the needle won't drop to 0 sooner or later.

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The SWP might like to be Syriza but I don't think they have the same potential for a wide appeal because the ideological vacancy isn't there (Labour never had PASOK's breadth or depth of support).
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1345 on: March 18, 2018, 05:48:53 PM »

I suspect if that gap in the market does open up it won't go to AAA/PBP but rather to the Social Democrats. But the fact that despite having two good TDs - much better than anything the Trots have -  they don't seem to be going anywhere suggests that that market isn't too large.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1346 on: March 18, 2018, 06:17:18 PM »

I suspect if that gap in the market does open up it won't go to AAA/PBP but rather to the Social Democrats. But the fact that despite having two good TDs - much better than anything the Trots have -  they don't seem to be going anywhere suggests that that market isn't too large.

The Social Democrats had potential but the activists they've ended up attracting are myopic to the extreme in their focus on the culture wars to the exclusion of all else.
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EPG
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« Reply #1347 on: March 19, 2018, 05:22:37 AM »

Is Richard Boyd-Barrett an especially good politician - like Joe Higgins was? PBP support to me seems entirely based on its participation in, & leadership of, social & other protest movements in the Dublin suburbs. Which gives them grotesquely exaggerated coverage on RTÉ, in my opinion.

Surely the ex-Labour gap has already been filled by SF, with TDs throughout the old Leinster and Munster industrial towns, save Seamus Healy's Clonmel. SF now stuck in Labour's old position, FF or FG or opposition, choose your poison. In contrast Social Democrats, PBP and the rest are bunches of TDs' local organisations, with the important caveat that Labour also retain trade union leadership support. SD in particular was 3 TDs, plus a bunch of protest candidates collectively polling less than the Healy-Rae brothers in Kerry. There was never potential there, compare to Democracy Now.

Among them all, left and centre-left outside SF, I think a figure like Clare Daly might have what it takes to win the vacant Dublin Euro-seat in 2019. The crucial fact is that SF has more seats than all of their parties combined. Yet none of them exude a sense that they are doing strategic thinking beyond the next election.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1348 on: March 24, 2018, 10:20:17 PM »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 33 (+1)
FF 24 (-5)
SF 16 (+2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-1)
Lab 6 (-)
SD 2 (-)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 2 (+1)
SP/SWP 1 (-)
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Green Line
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« Reply #1349 on: March 24, 2018, 10:25:58 PM »

Renua renassiance!
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