Ireland General Discussion

[London Man]

Echos of UK Labour, circa June 2009... only a lot more drastic.

I see your papers are pretty much the same as ours; just a tad more sweary...

[Kevinstat]

Ireland's biggest selling tabloid hedges its bets on the Government...

I've decided to use the singular form of that curse as my username through this Thanksgiving weekend (with an astirisk to get it the censor).

[Kevinstat]

Ireland's biggest selling tabloid hedges its bets on the Government...

I've decided to use the singular form of that curse as my username through this Thanksgiving weekend (with an astirisk to get it the censor).

Okay, I couldn't stand having all of my contributions (except from quotes in others' or my own posts) being under the name Useless Gobsh*te, so I'm going back to my regular username.

[Јas]

Today is by-election day in Donegal SW.

Turnout expected to be low (the by-election having been made quasi-redundant what with the General Election effectively in the offing). Turnout there in the last General was 66%.

Counting begins tomorrow morning at 9, result should be in by late afternoon. If the media/pollsters are correct and Doherty is well ahead - then we should have a fair indication of that by late morning.

[Јas]

Some suggestion in the press today that both Healy-Rae and Lowry might in fact vote for the budget (which would restore to the Government a notional 3 vote majority 82-79 [at least until the by-election result is in]).

[Vasall des Midas]

I'll take over from Kevin.

[Kevinstat]

I'll take over from Kevin.

Cool.

[Јas]

Counting in Donegal SW begins in an hour.

Only solid info at the moment is that the islands (voted on Monday) had a turnout of 43%.


Rumours though of an internal party (Labour) exit poll; liable to be rubbish of course, but hey, what else is there to report...
Doherty (SF) 33%
Ó Domhnaill (FF) 21%
McBrearty (L) 19%
O'Neill (FG) 18%
Pringle (i) 8%
Sweeney (i) 1%

While Doherty would still be favoured on such a return - such numbers could be good enough for McBrearty to sneak it, but then maybe that's exactly what a rumoured Labour exit poll would show.

[Јas]

Meanwhile, some more amusement...

[Јas]

Paddy Power has decided to pay out on a Doherty win.

[Јas]

Early estimate at turnout 50-55%

Early boxes (21%) indicate...
34% Doherty
25% O'Neill
17% Ó Domhnaill
13% Pringle
10% McBrearty
  1% Sweeney

[Јas]

72% of boxes

40% Doherty (SF)
21% Ó Domhnaill (FF)
19% O'Neill (FG)
10% Pringle (i)
10% McBrearty (L)

Doherty uncatchable if these sorts of numbers hold up.

[Јas]

FG represntative on local radio in Donegal concedes that Doherty will win.

88% of boxes...

39.7% Doherty (SF)
21.0% Ó Domhnaill (FF)
18.3% O'Neill (FG)
10.4% McBrearty (L)
10.3% Pringle (i)

[Јas]

Complete Tally

39.7% Doherty (SF)
21.2% Ó Domhnaill (FF)
18.4% O'Neill (FG)
10.2% McBrearty (L)
10.1% Pringle (i)

Might not even need to go to a 2-person count.

[Јas]

Looks like the one constituency poll wasn't far off the mark.

[Јas]

Given these sorts of numbers, 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG seems to be the most likely result from DSW in the upcoming General.

[Јas]

Donegal South West By-Election

Turnout: 56.03% (34,908)

Spoiled Votes: 484
Total Valid Poll: 34,424

			Change
	Count 1		on GE07
Doherty (SF)	13,719	39.9%	(+18.7%)
Ó Domhnaill (FF)	7,344	21.3%	(- 29.2%)
O'Neill (FG)	6,424	18.7%	(-   4.3%)
Pringle (i)	3,438	10.0%
McBrearty (L)	3,366	9.8%	(+  7.0%)
Sweeney (i)	133	0.4%

Sweeney eliminated - second count should be along post-haste.

SF on course for first by-election win since 1925.
FF + FG + Lab <50%
Labour result historically very good for them in DSW, but quite a bit below expectations.

[Oakvale]

I'm inclined to blame Labour's relatively poor result on -

A) Uh, it's Frank McBrearty. Although to be fair I doubt the Labour bench is very strong in Donegal.

B) More "left"-leaning and ex-FF voters flocking to the stronger candidate (Doherty, obviously).

[/spin]


I notice that O' Neill's polling somewhat better than predicted, incidentally.

[Јas]

I'm inclined to blame Labour's relatively poor result on -

A) Uh, it's Frank McBrearty. Although to be fair I doubt the Labour bench is very strong in Donegal.

Labour have precicely zero bench strength in Donegal (like a great deal of Connacht-Ulster, and the failure to attempt to address that will cost them in the General.)

Given the local election results, there's no doubt that McBrearty was the only realistic pick for them - barring some newbie to politics.

B) More "left"-leaning and ex-FF voters flocking to the stronger candidate (Doherty, obviously).
[/spin]

Nah, Donegal doesn't have left-leaning voters. SF voters there are republicans (like a great many of the FF voters there), not socialists.

[Јas]

Donegal South West By-Election

Quota: 17,213

	Count 1	Count 2
Doherty (SF)	13,719	13,736	(+17)
Ó Domhnaill (FF)	7,344	7,358	(+14)
O'Neill (FG)	6,424	6,442	(+18)
Pringle (i)	3,438	3,491	(+53)
McBrearty (L)	3,366	3,375	(+  9)
Sweeney (i)	133		(-133)
Non-Transferable		22	(+22)

McBrearty eliminated.

[YL]

RTE has the final count as Doherty (SF) 16,897; O'Neill (FG) 8,182; Ó'Domhall (FF) 8,069.  Doherty elected.

[Vasall des Midas]

For completeness sake, third count was Pearse Doherty (+1452) 15,188, Brian Ó'Domhall (+278) 7,636, Barry O'Neill (+871) 7,313, Thomas Pringle (+272) 3,763. Which means 502 untransferable.
Transfers on the fourth count would be Doherty +1709, O'Donnell +433, O'Neill +869, untransferable 752

[Oakvale]

Someone (not me) threw together this handy chart:

[Beet]

Analysis: Ireland's difficulty is Sinn Fein's opportunity

[Beet]

Tom O'Brien
Probably nothing new for those already familiar with the situation, but fascinating for me...

Irish Political Collapse Part 1
A few minutes of fluff at the beginning...
Irish Political Collapse Part 2
Irish Political Collapse Part 3