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Author Topic: Ireland General Discussion  (Read 275915 times)
Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #600 on: November 26, 2010, 10:27:53 AM »

I'm inclined to blame Labour's relatively poor result on -

A) Uh, it's Frank McBrearty. Although to be fair I doubt the Labour bench is very strong in Donegal.

B) More "left"-leaning and ex-FF voters flocking to the stronger candidate (Doherty, obviously).

[/spin]


I notice that O' Neill's polling somewhat better than predicted, incidentally.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #601 on: November 26, 2010, 10:34:22 AM »

I'm inclined to blame Labour's relatively poor result on -

A) Uh, it's Frank McBrearty. Although to be fair I doubt the Labour bench is very strong in Donegal.

Labour have precicely zero bench strength in Donegal (like a great deal of Connacht-Ulster, and the failure to attempt to address that will cost them in the General.)

Given the local election results, there's no doubt that McBrearty was the only realistic pick for them - barring some newbie to politics.


B) More "left"-leaning and ex-FF voters flocking to the stronger candidate (Doherty, obviously).
[/spin]

Nah, Donegal doesn't have left-leaning voters. SF voters there are republicans (like a great many of the FF voters there), not socialists.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #602 on: November 26, 2010, 11:08:41 AM »

Donegal South West By-Election

Quota: 17,213

Count 1   Count 2
Doherty (SF)13,719 13,736(+17)
Ó Domhnaill (FF)  7,344  7,358(+14)
O'Neill (FG)  6,424  6,442(+18)
Pringle (i)  3,438  3,491(+53)
McBrearty (L)  3,366  3,375(+  9)
Sweeney (i)     133  (-133)
Non-Transferable            22(+22)

McBrearty eliminated.
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YL
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« Reply #603 on: November 26, 2010, 02:09:58 PM »

RTE has the final count as Doherty (SF) 16,897; O'Neill (FG) 8,182; Ó'Domhall (FF) 8,069.  Doherty elected.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #604 on: November 26, 2010, 02:13:30 PM »

For completeness sake, third count was Pearse Doherty (+1452) 15,188, Brian Ó'Domhall (+278) 7,636, Barry O'Neill (+871) 7,313, Thomas Pringle (+272) 3,763. Which means 502 untransferable.
Transfers on the fourth count would be Doherty +1709, O'Donnell +433, O'Neill +869, untransferable 752
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Oakvale
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« Reply #605 on: November 26, 2010, 04:41:07 PM »

Someone (not me) threw together this handy chart:

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Beet
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« Reply #606 on: November 26, 2010, 04:48:42 PM »

Analysis: Ireland's difficulty is Sinn Fein's opportunity
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Beet
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« Reply #607 on: November 26, 2010, 07:50:56 PM »

Tom O'Brien
Probably nothing new for those already familiar with the situation, but fascinating for me...

Irish Political Collapse Part 1
A few minutes of fluff at the beginning...
Irish Political Collapse Part 2
Irish Political Collapse Part 3
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #608 on: November 27, 2010, 06:47:40 AM »

So, Doherty is elected and makes the Dáil maths that bit more unpalatable for the Government ahead of the 7 December budget. The election of Doherty is also potentially significant in that it puts the creation of a Dáil 'technical group' back in prospect. Having a party of 7 TDs or more allows certain privileges in terms of speaking rights, questioning and motions in the house. SF are in talks with independents McGrath (Dublin NC) and O'Sullivan (Dublin C) on forming such a grouping (one existed in the 2002-07 Dáil between SF, Greens and some independents). If they are sucessful, then SF should be able to get their proposed motion of no confidence on the Taoiseach in play.


Back on the budget...
Whether or not Healy-Rae and Lowry are likely to vote for or against or not vote at all on the budget is now an open question. Despite their strong comments on withdrawing their support, media commentary suggests they have a more malleable position than those statements would lead one to believe. The only pertinant comments from Lowry since have been that he remains "highly unlikely" to vote for the budget - though he has also refused comment on more than one occasion.

Healy-Rae might be an easier buy for ther Government, judging by recent statements by his son (and prospective candidate to replace his father at the upcoming General) Michael.

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Somewhat positive comments by Joe Behan (i-Wicklow) on the 4 year plan may indicate he is also poachable for the Government.


Anyway, until something more concrete, below are my new Dáil/Government support numbers...

Current Dáil Composition
Fianna Fáil70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)  3(Devins, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael51
Labour19
Labour (without whip)  1(Brougham)
Greens  6
Sinn Féin  5(+1)
Independents  7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)  1
Vacant  3(-1) (Dublin S, Waterford, Donegal NE)

Government80(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney)
Opposition82(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab +SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish, Healy-Rae, Lowry)
Majority -2
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Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #609 on: November 30, 2010, 10:49:14 AM »
« Edited: November 30, 2010, 11:30:23 AM by Governor Oakvale »

The state of the nation summarised for your convenience:

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #610 on: November 30, 2010, 11:21:19 AM »

The state of the nation summarised for your convenience:



Account for domain wheelspinninghamsterdead has been suspended.
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Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #611 on: November 30, 2010, 11:30:35 AM »

The state of the nation summarised for your convenience:



Account for domain wheelspinninghamsterdead has been suspended.

Fixed.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #612 on: December 01, 2010, 09:03:57 AM »

On the EU/ECB screwing us and why I'd vote for the IMF were they to contest the General Election
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #613 on: December 02, 2010, 05:13:01 PM »

New RedC poll...

FG 32, Labour 24, SF 16, FF 13
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Oakvale
oakvale
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« Reply #614 on: December 02, 2010, 05:29:41 PM »

New RedC poll...

FG 32, Labour 24, SF 16, FF 13

I wish Red C had waited a couple of weeks- the Sinn Féin surge is likely down to the massive good publicity they got from the DSW election. I don't see them holding at 16%.

That said, seeing Fianna Fáil in fourth place is hilarious.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #615 on: December 02, 2010, 05:41:01 PM »

Sinn Féin ahead of Fianna Fáil...wow.
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Јas
Jas
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« Reply #616 on: December 03, 2010, 08:06:37 AM »
« Edited: December 03, 2010, 08:09:22 AM by Јas »

I'm moving Healy-Rae and Lowry back into the pro-Government camp. They've voted with the Government on a number of technical issues despite their previous statements, and today's Irish Times report seems fairly clear that there is a much greater likelihood that they will now support the budget rather than vote against.

Lowry is pissed though, he wants to vote against and is seeking to blame FG and Labour for refusing to be constructive.

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And, speaking on behalf of his father...
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Undoubtedly, Michael Lowry is the most powerful TD in Ireland right now.


Current Dáil Composition
Fianna Fáil70
Fianna Fáil (without whip)  3(Devins, Scanlon, McGrath)
Fine Gael51
Labour19
Labour (without whip)  1(Brougham)
Greens  6
Sinn Féin  5
Independents  7
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)  1
Vacant  3(Dublin S, Waterford, Donegal NE)

Government82(FF + unwhipped FF + Green + Harney, Lowry, Healy-Rae)
Opposition80(FG + Lab + unwhipped Lab + SF + O'Sullivan, McGrath, Behan, Grealish)
Majority  2
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #617 on: December 03, 2010, 10:39:56 AM »

Sinn Féin ahead of Fianna Fáil...wow.
Gives a whole new meaning to the phrase "fail".
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #618 on: December 03, 2010, 11:49:52 AM »

Dáil schedule mitigates against election until March? - journal.ie

FG and Labour publish their budget proposals - journal.ie
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #619 on: December 03, 2010, 03:41:32 PM »

It does not surprise me that SF would take votes off FF. For all their leftist and radical posturing, this SF reminds me of nothing more than FF of the late 20s if FF of the 20s was a viable party in modern Ireland.
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #620 on: December 04, 2010, 04:04:24 PM »

Minister for Foreign Affairs, Micheál Martin (FF-Cork SC) becomes the second Minister to effectively declare interest in seeking the FF leadership.

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- Irish Times
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #621 on: December 05, 2010, 10:04:35 AM »


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So we can count on the Greens to vote against the 5-week Christmas recess discussed in your link, right?  (:sarcasm:)
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #622 on: December 05, 2010, 12:44:10 PM »

So we can count on the Greens to vote against the 5-week Christmas recess discussed in your link, right?  (:sarcasm:)

Quite.



In other news today, Lucinda Creighton (FG-Dublin SE) has told the Sunday Business Post that she will abstain on the budget vote if necessary to help get it passed.

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- Reuters
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #623 on: December 05, 2010, 01:06:49 PM »

Didn't Lucinda Creighton also say she would resign if she weren't promoted to the frontbench in the next government?
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Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #624 on: December 06, 2010, 04:00:09 PM »

Michael Lowry (i-Tipperary S) and Jackie Healy-Rae (i-Kerry S) will vote for the budget.

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- Irish Times
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