Ireland General Discussion

[Oakvale]

It's being widely reported that Gilmore will be resigning shortly.

He's gone.

Didn't expect that. Joanie to succeed, I suppose?

That would be the most likely option although Alex White or even Brendan Howlin are outside possibilities.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is the new leader going to be another sticky?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It's being widely reported that Gilmore will be resigning shortly.

He's gone.

Didn't expect that. Joanie to succeed, I suppose?

That would be the most likely option although Alex White or even Brendan Howlin are outside possibilities.

Is Alex White a serious candidate? I mean, he's absolutely certain to lose his seat next time around. Also yet another Labour leader with a student-Trot/USI background? As for Howlin, too identified with the government this stage imo.

Is the new leader going to be another sticky?

Joan Burton is the favourite, so no, if her. There aren't all that many ex-WP TDs in the Parliamentary Labour Party, even if they include some of the most prominent members. Even that Gilmore has resigned shows that the leadership recognizes that something has to give... so my guess is probably not. Not sure who can save Labour now though.

[Oakvale]

It's being widely reported that Gilmore will be resigning shortly.

He's gone.

Didn't expect that. Joanie to succeed, I suppose?

That would be the most likely option although Alex White or even Brendan Howlin are outside possibilities.

Is Alex White a serious candidate? I mean, he's absolutely certain to lose his seat next time around. Also yet another Labour leader with a student-Trot/USI background? As for Howlin, too identified with the government this stage imo.

Is the new leader going to be another sticky?

Joan Burton is the favourite, so no, if her. There aren't all that many ex-WP TDs in the Parliamentary Labour Party, even if they include some of the most prominent members. Even that Gilmore has resigned shows that the leadership recognizes that something has to give... so my guess is probably not. Not sure who can save Labour now though.

It's all fairly academic since the only way I see Joan Burton not being the next leader of the Labour Party is if for some reason she doesn't stand, really.

e: Though re: Alex White it's worth noting that Burton herself could have a bit of an issue with retaining her seat next election, albeit not quite as clear-cut.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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That's pretty much true of every member of the Labour Party now.

[Јas]

Brian Crowley essentially confirms he plans to run for the Presidency in 2018...

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ireland-south-crowley-and-n%C3%AD-riada-elected-1.1809430

[ObserverIE]

Local elections: Went through the entire list to put this work of art in last place. (Note: I performed exactly the same procedure in 1999, 2004 and 2009 - without success so far - but I'm somewhat more hopeful this time).

Mission accomplished.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

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  Sounds like he knows that now he's not an incumbent, there's no chance Fine Gael will nominate him.

[ObserverIE]

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 Sounds like he knows that now he's not an incumbent, there's no chance Fine Gael will nominate him.

The rest of the local FGers detest him. He was added on as a candidate this time by party HQ. What he has been is an effective clientelist politician, which is not of itself a particularly bad thing at county council level.

Anecdote: I was tallying for the candidate who was just ahead of him (a friend and neighbour who I've known since primary school). After the elimination of Coyle (FF) we were five votes ahead and the next elimination was Keogh (Ind), an ex-FGer who had not been added to the ticket and is less personally pleasant than Frank. The time was 2.00am.

We had earlier that afternoon tried to do a tally of where Keogh's first preferences would go, trying to take account of where number 2's to those candidates who would be elected or eliminated before Keogh would travel. (We usually had about three seconds to read a ballot paper - upside-down - and quickly try to figure out where the number 2 - or possibly the number 5 - was going. This is not easy.)

Our figures had Frank at 52 and ourselves at 44, which would have put Frank three ahead, but there were ballot papers we'd missed, ballot papers which were being assessed as "doubtful" because there was an omitted or duplicated preference somewhere down the line (the vote would still be valid up to the point of the mistake), and of course those transfers which Keogh had subsequently obtained from other candidates. In total, we tallied 430 out of a first count figure of 510, and a total figure of 624. We knew it would be touch and go. I was not hugely optimistic.

Keogh's votes were sorted into pigeon holes labelled for each candidate, and the batches were brought over to be counted individually. Frank's were counted first and came to 70. We needed 65.

Our votes, a sizeable-looking pile, were now brought over to another table. I was leaning over the little barrier, largely surrounded by FGers, and the counting began.

"One... two... three..", I said aloud as each vote was laid on the table.

"Twenty-eight... twenty-nine...". I briefly lost count and tried to correct myself, hoping that I was still right and wasn't under- or over-counting.

"Fifty-four... fifty-five...". The pile was starting to look worryingly small.

"Sixty-one... sixty-two...". There still were a few left. But how many?

"Sixty-four... sixty-five... SIXTY-SIX..."

Behind me, from the surrounding massed ranks of FG-dom, I heard quiet yelps of delight.

[ObserverIE]

Devastation in the senior ranks of Labour as Gilmore announces his resignation:



For some strange reason, this comes to mind...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Just to recall a mere four years ago

[ObserverIE]

It's being widely reported that Gilmore will be resigning shortly.

He's gone.

Didn't expect that. Joanie to succeed, I suppose?

That would be the most likely option although Alex White or even Brendan Howlin are outside possibilities.

Is Alex White a serious candidate? I mean, he's absolutely certain to lose his seat next time around. Also yet another Labour leader with a student-Trot/USI background?

He would be the first ex-Trot. The last two being Tankies.

More relevantly, White has been in the media for the last few months as the public face of the cluster that has seen medical cards removed from kids with Down Syndrome and sufferers from Motor Neurone Disease asked if their complaint has gone away.

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Continuity Doormat Tendency.

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Joan Burton is the favourite, so no, if her. There aren't all that many ex-WP TDs in the Parliamentary Labour Party, even if they include some of the most prominent members. Even that Gilmore has resigned shows that the leadership recognizes that something has to give... so my guess is probably not. Not sure who can save Labour now though.
[/quote]

The one dark horse, I suppose, would be Alan Kelly - young(ish), not associated with the various factions, not associated with the various ups of the last three years, and non-Dublin and not a culture warrior. Also not guaranteed to get on FGers' wicks, which may or may not be a good thing.

[ObserverIE]

Update: Kelly has declared for the Deputy Leadership position. He's being supported by Ann Phelan (Carlow-Kilkenny), who's also supporting Burton for the leadership and on the basis of last week's local results would be one of the few Labour TDs with a reasonable prospect of getting re-elected.

Two other TDs are going for the Deputy Leadership: Seán Sherlock (Cork East), who seems to be standing on behalf of the Sticky/Continuity Doormat alliance and is absolutely painful to listen to, and Michael McCarthy (Cork South West), who doesn't seem to have secured the necessary nomination of another TD to actually stand as opposed to talk about standing.

[Oakvale]

I doubt White has the support to make a serious run at it.

I agree, and yet he's in, for some reason. No-one I know in Labour gives him much of a chance although he'll probably do well among the parliamentary party. Then again, most people I know in Labour told me Brendan Howlin was likely to stand so, er...

I almost (almost) wish I'd renewed my membership now. I'd be part of an increasingly rare and undistinguished club and would have the opportunity to vote against the ex-Trot and Sticky entryists that have nearly completed their apparent mission to destroy the party. There's something very fitting about the fact that the ex-Trotskyist candidate represents one of the most middle-class constituencies in the country.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

He would be the first ex-Trot. The last two being Tankies.

I was more playing up the USI/student-Marxist angle, yes.

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Except for sufferers of said conditions, that will be mostly forgotten by the next GE.

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His Rathfarnham area base is being drawn out of the constituency for the next election and being moved into Tallaghtland (aka Dublin South West) where there are already 2 sitting Labour TDs (admittely one of them is Pat Rabitte, but....)

On that note, If White wins it (and I know he won't) would be the four Labour leader in a row who represented a Dublin-south-of-the-Liffey seat.

[ObserverIE]

Car crash interview with White supporter Derek Nolan as to why people should vote for White or what exactly he would do differently if elected on this evening's Drivetime (not on the RTE Player yet). Audrey Carville is no Vincent Browne but you still felt bad about the gratuitous cruelty to a poor dumb animal.

The time may soon come to put the Labour Party out of its misery.

[Simfan34]

This means more SF then, ugh.

[ObserverIE]

I almost (almost) wish I'd renewed my membership now. I'd be part of an increasingly rare and undistinguished club and would have the opportunity to vote against the ex-Trot and Sticky entryists that have nearly completed their apparent mission to destroy the party.

And ironically they have destroyed it, not by moving it towards Trotskyism or Juche, but by shifting it to the right (at least on economic issues) with the acquiescence of most of Old Labour and of an activist base that has been too preoccupied by social issues to notice (or seemingly care) what was going on economically.

[ObserverIE]

Trigger warning: Mauling of helpless Labour backbencher starts at 40:09.

http://www.rte.ie/radio/utils/radioplayer/rteradioweb.html#!rii=9%3A10286445%3A83%3A30-05-2014%3A

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Today in "Why, oh why, can we not have a better intelligentsia", the world's worst political journalist, Stephen Collins

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Oh sure, the real reason that Labour was thrashed last week had no connection at all to what they've done, only things they said... four years ago.

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LOL. Oh, do name names Stephen.

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Ah so the real problem is - gadzooks - the media of which Stephen Collins is most definitely  a part, I mean what else could it be? That common good has been so.... common over the last few years.

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HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.... Oh lord. Nurse! Meds!

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Perhaps we don't need a Nurse so much as a a psychiatrist

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Lord, Stephen... so if I understand you correctly, you think the way to save the Labour Party is for it to keep doing what it has been doing for the past three years. Perhaps when Labour really needs is for Sean Sherlock and Pat Rabbitte on TV twenty years a hour, seven days a week saying nothing but the words "Hard Decisions" and "Tough Choices" on a continual loop.

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There is not a single fact in that paragraph

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What is this, I don't even?

Did Stephen also notice how 'well' the other government party did last week?

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*Head desk*

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Low turnout in... middle class areas? What. is. he. talking. about.

Thank god print media is dying.

[ObserverIE]

Look, Collins is a Cosgrave-era Fine Gaeler. In Collinsworld, all parties need to turn into Cosgrave-era Fine Gael in order to succeed.

The intelligentsia, much like the electorate, is an annoying distraction.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Look, Collins is a Cosgrave-era Fine Gaeler. In Collinsworld, all parties need to turn into Cosgrave-era Fine Gael in order to succeed.

No doubt. But where do they find these people?

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political_journalism.txt

On that note, I discovered this the other day on Irish election literature

[ObserverIE]

Look, Collins is a Cosgrave-era Fine Gaeler. In Collinsworld, all parties need to turn into Cosgrave-era Fine Gael in order to succeed.

No doubt. But where do they find these people?

If you're referring to Cosgrave-era Fine Gaelers, well, FG is full to the brim with them.

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In 20 years' time, will our successors be similarly gazing wondrously at today's material from Ruth Coppinger or from any one of a hundred SFers?

[ObserverIE]

Ciara Conway enters deputy leadership race on behalf of Culture Warrior wing with (what else?) tweeted support from Aodhán Ó Ríordáin. (Ivana is otherwise occupied getting onside with Joan Burton as next leader.)

Promises not to accept Cabinet or junior minister post if elected. Unlikely to be put to test.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Is that a serious question because of course they will (Well... maybe not, Coppinger, she seems too much of a true believer).

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That doesn't answer my question.