Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

Kildare South is perhaps the most revealing one, given that they didn't do that badly in the locals there and have a TD to boot. Now why might that be....

Family franchise (although so are Kerry and - to a very large extent - Longford-Westmeath) where possible rivals to the succession have been pushed out. Cork East is also remarkably small - although there you had two competing family franchises in Mallow (Sherlock - Sticky) and Cóbh (Mulvihill - old Labour).

That was a rhetorical question .

I suppose it was a rhetorical answer as well , but the lack of a membership base in some of the family fiefdoms but not in others is interesting (e.g. are there really 92 members of the extended Costello clan in Dublin Central and can they all be fitted up with appointments to the Senate, judiciary or state boards before the coalition finally expires?).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

New RedC Poll

FG: 25% (-)
LAB: 7% (-4)
FF: 18% (-3)
SF: 22% (+4)
IND/OTH: 28% (+3)

[ObserverIE]

More on the RedC poll here.

Assumption of Joan Burton into the Labour leadership expected within the next hour. Rumours going round Leinster House (and spread on Twitter by Shane Ross) that she will appoint Ivana Bacik to a senior Cabinet post. That would be a brave decision.

Presumably Ivana would then be the chief government spokesperson for next year's referendum on gay marriage. Which would be an even braver decision.

[Јas]

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https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/485064454355570688


Appears to be a 76-24 margin.

[ObserverIE]

More than 76-24:

Burton 2094 (77.5%)
White 607 (22.5%)

Deputy leader:

Kelly 1409 (51.5%)
Sherlock 467 (17.1%)
McCarthy 438 (16.0%)
Conway 421 (15.4%)

Burton currently talking about tackling low pay and the shortage of social housing, which sounds dangerously traditionally Labour-ish. It's unlikely to last.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

More on the RedC poll here.

Assumption of Joan Burton into the Labour leadership expected within the next hour. Rumours going round Leinster House (and spread on Twitter by Shane Ross) that she will appoint Ivana Bacik to a senior Cabinet post. That would be a brave decision.

Presumably Ivana would then be the chief government spokesperson for next year's referendum on gay marriage. Which would be an even braver decision.

Brave wouldn't be quite the word I would use...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think he means it in a strictly Sir Humphrey sense. But perhaps, even so, courageous would be better?

[ObserverIE]

I think he means it in a strictly Sir Humphrey sense. But perhaps, even so, courageous would be better?

Quite.

Although watching Ivana trying to speak Earthling would have a certain grim fascination.

[ilikeverin]

Translation for those not from Ireland who know nothing about Bakic?

[ObserverIE]

Translation for those not from Ireland who know nothing about Bakic?

Briefly: Ivana is culture-warrior-in-chief of the Labour Party. A law professor in Trinity College with a condescending manner and a seeming inability to connect with the ordinary voter beyond the bourgeois bohemians of Ranelagh and Sandymount, who has stood for election for the European parliament (once) and the Dáil (twice) and failed every time. She is to the social liberal wing of the Labour Party what Gay Mitchell is/was to the traditional wing of Fine Gael - someone who embodies the group's own complete set of prejudices and assumptions, but who will progressively antagonise the general public the more they see of her.

Labour told people during the 2011 election that they needed to be elected to keep curbs on the economic slash-and-burners of Fine Gael. Instead, economic policy was almost fully conceded to FG (backed by the Troika) while Labour, under the leadership of the ex-Stickies, decided to concentrate on social liberalism: abortion, gay marriage and secularism; issues which excite a large part of their membership base in bo-bo land and in social media but go nowhere in the real world at the moment. At a time when most people are seeing their living standards decline due to wage cuts, flat charges for utilities and public service cuts, these were viewed as at best an irrelevance and at worst an irritation.

Burton has managed over the last couple of years to create a public perception that she was in the government but not of it; even though she presided over considerable cuts in social welfare payments and the introduction of workfare measures, she kept making it clear by judiciously-timed statements to the media that she disagreed with much of the strategy being decided by the inner cabinet (the Economic Management Council). This helped her to be seen as the internal opposition to Gilmore, Rabbitte, etc. and is likely to provide her with at least a temporary degree of public goodwill (I would expect Labour's opinion poll ratings to return to the low double digits rather than the middle single digits, for example). Her initial statements indicate a determination to refocus Labour on affecting the economic policy of the government and on things that matter to their traditional voters; appointing Bacik to Cabinet, on the other hand, would nullify that and would end up being presented as a doubling down on the social liberal agenda.

[ObserverIE]

Cabinet reshuffle originally expected on Wednesday, then on Thursday, then on Friday at midday, finally announced at 1.45, presumably after hissy fits in the background.

Charlie Flanagan (FG - Laois-Offaly), promoted from the backbenches to Children in the post-Shatter emergency reshuffle, promoted again to Foreign Affairs to replace Éamon Gilmore.
The accident-prone James Reilly (FG - Dublin North) downgraded to Chief Child Catcher Minister for Children.
The ambitious Leo Varadkar (FG - Dublin West) moved from Transport into the minefields of the Department of Health.
Mini-minister Paschal Donohoe (FG - Dublin Central) moved into Transport.
Jan O'Sullivan (Lab - Limerick City) promoted from Junior Minster for Housing into Education to replace Ruairí Quinn.
Newly-elected deputy leader Alan Kelly (Lab - Tipperary North) handed Environment and Local Government, along with the headaches of property taxes and water charges, in place of Phil Hogan, sent to delight Brussels with his peculiar charm.
Unsuccessful leadership candidate Alex White (Lab - Dublin South) given Communications and Natural Resources in place of Pat Rabbitte; isn't that the sort of thing that you do in a reshuffle?
Heather Humphreys (FG - Cavan-Monaghan) provides the one major surprise of the reshuffle by being appointed to Arts, Heritage and the Gaeltacht in place of Jimmy Deenihan.

Number of women in cabinet increases from 2 to 4. Dublin/non-Dublin balance shifts from 8/7 to 7/8 with the Labour contingent now being the less Dublin-centred of the two parties.

[ObserverIE]

Junior Ministers announced:

There were already five vacancies due to the election of Obnoxious Tory SquitBrian Hayes (FG) to the European Parliament and the promotion of Paschal Donohoe (FG), Alan Kelly (Lab), Jan O'Sullivan (Lab) and Alex White (Lab) to cabinet.

Other departures were:

Fergus O'Dowd (FG - Louth) - lugubrious ex-Labour councillor.
Ciarán Cannon (FG - Galway East) - a man whose only distinction was being the final leader-by-default of the PDs until he defected from his own party to FG.
John Perry (FG - Sligo-Leitrim) - Minister for Small Business who mainly attracted attention for the financial troubles of his own business and his attempts to pull rank with the banks in his dealings re same.
Dinny McGinley (FG - Donegal South West) - FG's elderly token native Irish speaker.
Joe Costello (Lab - Dublin Central) - another blow to the family finances following Mrs Costello's failure to hold on to her co-opted European Parliament seat in May (that's her on the far left of The Vision of Saint Joan below). A dig-out from one of the two sisters-in-law (the appointed Senator and the appointed judge) may be necessary to plug the hole.



New arrivals are:

Ged Nash (Lab - Louth) - balding Blairite trade union official appointed Minister for Jobs with a non-voting seat at cabinet.
Jimmy Deenihan (FG - Kerry North) - nondescript Minister for Arts, Culture and the Gaeltacht kicked downstairs to a junior ministry dealing with emigrants.
Simon Harris (FG - Wicklow) - goody-goody 25-year-old who gets rewarded for a sacrificial lamb run for the European Parliament by being appointed Junior Minister in Finance.
Dara Murphy (FG - Cork North Central) - largely anonymous TD who's willing to put in the rounds on television and radio panel discussions and is appointed Minister for Europe for his troubles.
Damien English (FG - Meath West) - eager-beaver but largely incomprehensible youngish backbencher, again willing to appear on panel discussions.
Paudie Coffey (FG - Waterford) - see description of Murphy, English, etc. but more easily understood.
Joe McHugh (FG - Donegal North East) - as above.
Ann Phelan (Lab - Carlow-Kilkenny) - one of the few Labour TDs likely to hold their seat based on the local election results, appointed to a new position in charge of rural affairs.
Aodhán Ó Ríordáin (Lab - Dublin North Central) - given a brief for equality within the Department of Justice as a nod to Labour's culture-warrior wing. Toned-down male version of Ivana who could still manage to inflict friendly fire on next year's SSM referendum if not careful.
Kevin Humphreys (Lab - Dublin South East) - represents the working-class end of Labour's safest (and the state's wealthiest) constituency. May put a spanner in Ivana's plans to replace Ruairí Quinn at the next election.

The two Stickies in the junior ranks (Seán Sherlock and Kathleen Lynch) were left alone in the reshuffle. Main discussion points in the aftermath are the failure of Kenny to appoint any women to the junior FG team and the appointment of McHugh as minister in charge of Irish language affairs despite not being a competent speaker of the language.

[ilikeverin]

Translation for those not from Ireland who know nothing about Bakic?

Briefly: Ivana is culture-warrior-in-chief of the Labour Party. A law professor in Trinity College with a condescending manner and a seeming inability to connect with the ordinary voter beyond the bourgeois bohemians of Ranelagh and Sandymount, who has stood for election for the European parliament (once) and the Dáil (twice) and failed every time. She is to the social liberal wing of the Labour Party what Gay Mitchell is/was to the traditional wing of Fine Gael - someone who embodies the group's own complete set of prejudices and assumptions, but who will progressively antagonise the general public the more they see of her.

Labour told people during the 2011 election that they needed to be elected to keep curbs on the economic slash-and-burners of Fine Gael. Instead, economic policy was almost fully conceded to FG (backed by the Troika) while Labour, under the leadership of the ex-Stickies, decided to concentrate on social liberalism: abortion, gay marriage and secularism; issues which excite a large part of their membership base in bo-bo land and in social media but go nowhere in the real world at the moment. At a time when most people are seeing their living standards decline due to wage cuts, flat charges for utilities and public service cuts, these were viewed as at best an irrelevance and at worst an irritation.

Burton has managed over the last couple of years to create a public perception that she was in the government but not of it; even though she presided over considerable cuts in social welfare payments and the introduction of workfare measures, she kept making it clear by judiciously-timed statements to the media that she disagreed with much of the strategy being decided by the inner cabinet (the Economic Management Council). This helped her to be seen as the internal opposition to Gilmore, Rabbitte, etc. and is likely to provide her with at least a temporary degree of public goodwill (I would expect Labour's opinion poll ratings to return to the low double digits rather than the middle single digits, for example). Her initial statements indicate a determination to refocus Labour on affecting the economic policy of the government and on things that matter to their traditional voters; appointing Bacik to Cabinet, on the other hand, would nullify that and would end up being presented as a doubling down on the social liberal agenda.

Much obliged!  Very clear.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS poll for tomorrow's Sindo. Change figures quoted here don't match any previous IMS poll I've seen:

FG 25
SF 24
Ind/Oth 23
FF 20
Lab 7
GP 1

Burton Bounce not noticeably sweeping all before it.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour and Attitudes for the Sunday Times shows some evidence of a Burton Bounce, but only once the figures have been adjusted for past stated voting intention and likelihood of turnout:

FG 24 (-2)
Ind/Oth 22 (-2)
SF 19 (-2)
FF 18 (-1)
Lab 14 (+7)
Green 2 (-)

Unadjusted figures, by comparison, are:

SF 27 (+7)
FG 22 (-5)
Ind/Oth 21 (-1)
FF 18 (-4)
Lab 9 (+2)
Green 2 (-)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Former Taoiseach Albert Reynolds has died. Aged 81.

[Silent Hunter]

Rest in Peace.

[ObserverIE]

Former Taoiseach Albert Reynolds has died. Aged 81.

RIP. Long-term local TD and decent individual who worked to ensure that a generation of people in Northern Ireland and in the Republic have never experienced the numbing awfulness that characterised the 70s, 80s and early 90s.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 28 (+3)
SF 23 (+1)
Ind/Oth 21 (-5)
FF 18 (-)
Lab 8 (+1)
GP 2 (-)

Burton Bounce not evident. Uptick in FG support following a concentrated bout of doubleplusgood happytalk over the last few months from our totally independent media (prop. D. O'Brien). I still suspect that RedC are systematically overstating FG and understating FF through a mixture of Shy Tory Syndrome and overcooking their adjustments.

[ObserverIE]

Millward Brown/IMS for the Sindo:

FG 25 (-)
Ind/Oth 23 (-)
SF 22 (-2)
FF 21 (+1)
Lab 9 (+2)
GP 1 (-)

Sindo trying to spin this as the Burton Bounce eating into the Evil Shinners.

[Oakvale]

Where are you getting those numbers, politicus?

[politicus]

Where are you getting those numbers, politicus?

Irish Central, but old poll, sorry!

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times, generally considered the most accurate of the pollsters, with changes since before the local and European elections in May:

FG 24 (-)
SF 24 (+4)
Ind/Oth 23 (-1)
FF 20 (-5)
Lab 9 (+2)

[Oakvale]

Fluoride crusade bounce!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This means that Irish 'Labour' are now polling higher numbers than the LibDems are on the other side of the Irish Sea, lol.