Ireland General Discussion

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[Simfan34]

In June, there will be direct flights from Dublin to Los Angeles!

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http://www.businesstraveller.com/news/101489/ethiopian-airlines-targets-business-travellers

[ObserverIE]

Absolutely nothing to see here, folks.



Move along, please, and don't be embarrassing us in front of the neighbours.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 25 (-2)
Ind/Oth 24 (-)
SF 22 (+5)
FF 19 (+1)
Lab 8 (-2)
GP 1 (-1)
Renua 1 (-1)

[Oakvale]

Me and Gully were talking about that poll the other night and how terrible the Irish media is at understanding polls. The last Red C had SF randomly drop 4 or 5 points, and now they return to the position virtually every other poll has them in and it's a SHOCK RESULT.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Wow, I see Lucinda Creighton really has some mass appeal to the Irish electorate!

[ObserverIE]

Wow, I see Lucinda Creighton really has some mass appeal to the Irish electorate!

Very good....

As I said earlier, it's not possible to outflank FG on the economic right. Having the renowned gobsh:te Eddie Hobbs as her effective second-in-command was the kiss of death.

Herself and Billy Timmins will hold on due to their personal votes but it's difficult to see them making a breakthrough anywhere else.

[ObserverIE]

Me and Gully were talking about that poll the other night and how terrible the Irish media is at understanding polls. The last Red C had SF randomly drop 4 or 5 points, and now they return to the position virtually every other poll has them in and it's a SHOCK RESULT.

I said at the time that the 17 for SF seemed "off".

Most of this week's polling took place before Siteserv started to emerge from plain sight into the public view, so things may not be getting better for FG and their doormats any time soon.

[ObserverIE]

A couple of voting intention polls from this weekend:

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 27 (-)
Ind/Oth 26 (+3)
SF 20 (+1)
FF 17 (-1)
Lab 8 (-1)
GP 3 (-)

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 28 (+4)
Ind/Oth 24 (-4)
SF 21 (-3)
FF 20 (+3)
Lab 7 (-)

[Nutmeg]

Any polling/thoughts on tomorrow's vote?

[ObserverIE]

Any polling/thoughts on tomorrow's vote?

There's a thread on the International Elections board.

I think there's enough goodwill and "live and let live" sentiment among the general population for it to get across the line (54-55%?) despite a Yes campaign that was far too fond of preaching to the converted for its own good.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Is it wrong of me that I feel slightly sorry for Michael Martin now?

Btw, this is the second defection from FF by a Senator over this referendum. Jim Walsh left over the parties' support for the motion.

My prediction from 2011 that Fianna Fail would remain but as a small, conservative, rural rump got a closer to being right today.

[afleitch]

Might not be the right place here, but can I find it ironic that Veritas Renua's principle is to move away from the domination of 'left-rightpolitics'. What f-cking Ireland have they been living in for the past 90 years.

That's me. I'm done.

[ObserverIE]

Is it wrong of me that I feel slightly sorry for Michael Martin now?

Given that he went out of his way to ensure that she was elected to the Seanad in 2011 after having crashed and burned at the 2009 local elections and the 2011 general election (in both of which cases she was parachuted in by HQ), I feel more than slightly sorry for him.

I'd bracket her along with John McGuinness as being a self-interested publicity seeker, although McGuinness is at least electable by the population at large. But she's a media darling - in no small part because she's married to the editor of one of Denis O'Brien's newspapers - so she'll be given an easy ride.

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It depends on how you define "conservative". I don't think there's significant space to the right of FG economically, so I think FF has to position itself between FG and SF on that axis.

There's also a good deal of misgiving out there about an economic recovery which is largely centred on Dublin and middle-class Dublin at that, and there's the potential to argue that FG is solely concerned with looking after its core vote to the exclusion of everyone else. The vote that that argument can appeal to is going to be primarily "rural" (or non-metropolitan) by default.

On social issues, I don't think there are many people who vote solely on those issues on either side, although FF would need to be careful not to get associated with the extremes. As long as they remain socially moderate then I don't think the general electorate will care too much because other issues take priority in a general election campaign.

Ultimately, though, the problem for FF is that people still associate it with the last boom and bust and haven't forgiven it for the aftermath, although the hatred is slowly diminishing as we saw in Carlow-Kilkenny.

[Oakvale]

Averil Power is terrible, of course, but it's pretty amusing that Micheal Martin has once again had to say his leadership isn't under threat literally a day after winning that crucial by-election. Poor guy.

[Silent Hunter]

Averil Power is terrible.

What, for the non-Irish among us, is wrong with her?

[ObserverIE]

Averil Power is terrible.

What, for the non-Irish among us, is wrong with her?

I refer you to my earlier answer:

Is it wrong of me that I feel slightly sorry for Michael Martin now?

Given that he went out of his way to ensure that she was elected to the Seanad in 2011 after having crashed and burned at the 2009 local elections and the 2011 general election (in both of which cases she was parachuted in by HQ), I feel more than slightly sorry for him.

I'd bracket her along with John McGuinness as being a self-interested publicity seeker, although McGuinness is at least electable by the population at large. But she's a media darling - in no small part because she's married to the editor of one of Denis O'Brien's newspapers - so she'll be given an easy ride.

She's a student union hack turned ministerial adviser who was parachuted onto the FF front bench by Martin in the run up to the 2011 election and was then relentlessly promoted in the Seanad election. Gigantic sense of entitlement with very little to justify it.

[ObserverIE]

Meanwhile:

http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/0528/704498-dail-leaders/

http://oireachtasdebates.oireachtas.ie/debates%20authoring/debateswebpack.nsf/takes/dail2015052800027?opendocument

While it lasts, http://www.broadsheet.ie/2015/05/28/redacteds-1-25-interest-rate/

Move along, nothing to see here (literally nothing to see if you're relying on NewsTalk or the Irish Independent)...

[ObserverIE]

Labour are to lose their 5th TD during this Dáil today.

Nulty (subsequently resigned from the Dáil)
Shortall (not coming back)
Broughan (not coming back)
Penrose (since returned)
Keaveney (gone to FF)
Ferris (due to return)
McNamara (?)

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/labour-td-to-vote-against-government-on-aer-lingus-sale-1.2229181

[/quote]

Represents the constituency containing Shannon Airport.

Has about zero chance of being re-elected as a Labour candidate.

Was independent until he hopped aboard the Labour bandwagon in 2010.

Now has opportunity to pose as local champion.

Will probably not be back.

[Silent Hunter]

They apparently lack confidence in the cover provided by Article 15.12 of the Constitution:

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At 02.30, the Independent published: "Murphy uses Dáil privilege to raise O'Brien finances".

Nothing in The Examiner or on NewsTalk or Today FM yet that I can see.

Reminds me of something Trafigura once tried to pull in the UK:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Ivory_Coast_toxic_waste_dump#Minton_Report_and_legal_controversy

Thanks for the clarification re Averil Power, BTW.

[ObserverIE]

They apparently lack confidence in the cover provided by Article 15.12 of the Constitution:

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At 02.30, the Independent published: "Murphy uses Dáil privilege to raise O'Brien finances".

Nothing in The Examiner or on NewsTalk or Today FM yet that I can see.

Reminds me of something Trafigura once tried to pull in the UK:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Ivory_Coast_toxic_waste_dump#Minton_Report_and_legal_controversy

Thanks for the clarification re Averil Power, BTW.

It's worse, really.

Trafigura didn't own half the UK media and spend its time threatening the other half. It wasn't implicated in corruption allegations involving the governing party from that party's last spell in government.

FF, SF and Renua have all now called for the Dáil to be recalled next week to discuss the issue of parliamentary privilege. Even one of the more bolshie Labour senators has started squeaking.

Averil the great liberal hero has been absolutely silent on this one. I wonder why.

[ObserverIE]

RedC poll for the Sunday Business Post:

DO'BFG 28 (+3)
SF 21 (-1)
FF 19 (-)
Ind/Oth 18 (-6)
Lab 10 (+2)
GP 3 (+2)
Renua 1 (-)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

New Poll, RedC:

FG: 28% (+3)
LAB: 10% (+2)
FF: 19% (-)
SF: 21% (-1)
IND/OTH: 22% (-4) (of which Greens 3% and Renua 1%)

Survey done just after the Same-sex marriage referendum and before the latest turn in the Siteserv/IBRC scandal. Needless to say the early election rumours are flying around atm.

[ObserverIE]

New Poll, RedC:

FG: 28% (+3)
LAB: 10% (+2)
FF: 19% (-)
SF: 21% (-1)
IND/OTH: 22% (-4) (of which Greens 3% and Renua 1%)

Survey done just after the Same-sex marriage referendum and before the latest turn in the Siteserv/IBRC scandal. Needless to say the early election rumours are flying around atm.

You're left wondering how much more of the country FG will flog off to their owner if they get re-elected. Not a peep out of them on #redacted.

[morgieb]

Who do you think will form government? Seems like there's little chance of anyone getting a majority.