Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

Ind/Oth 30 (+5)
FG 24 (-)
FF 18 (-3)
SF 17 (-2)
Lab 8 (-1)
GP 1 (-1)
Renua 1 (-)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

Ind/Oth 25 (+1)
FG 25 (-3)
FF 18 (-2)
SF 18 (-)
Lab 8 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 2 (+2)
Renua 1 (-)
SWP t/a PBP 1 (+1)

[Oakvale]

Not to indulge in the Irish media's favourite hobby of overanalysing margin-of-error shifts in polls, but you have to wonder where that SD vote is coming from.

[ObserverIE]

Not to indulge in the Irish media's favourite hobby of overanalysing margin-of-error shifts in polls, but you have to wonder where that SD vote is coming from.

Disillusioned middle-class Labour supporters who were previously Don't Knows or non-specific independents, I would have thought. I don't see signs of a ground operation yet, or of mass appeal to working-class voters, although all three TDs are likely to return on the basis of their own reputations.

[ObserverIE]

Another two Labour TDs, Seán Kenny (Dublin North East) and Éamonn Maloney (Dublin South West), decide to jump before they're pushed. That makes seven out of the remaining 34 so far.

[ObserverIE]

IMS/Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent:

FG 24 (-5)
FF 23 (-)
SF 21 (-)
Ind/Oth 19.5 (+3.5)
Lab 7 (+1)
SP 2 (-)
GP 1 (-)
Renua 1 (-)
SWP 1 (-)
SD 0.5 (+0.5)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

[ObserverIE]

[REDACTED] strikes again.

He's also currently suing the members of the Dáil's Procedures and Privileges Committee for allowing Catherine Murphy say nasty things about him under parliamentary privilege.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 27 (+3)
FF 20 (+2)
SF 19 (+2)
Ind/Oth 16 (-14)
Lab 6 (-2)
SP 4 (+4)
GP 2 (+1)
WP 2 (+2)
Renua 2 (+1)
SWP 1 (+1)
SD 1 (+1)

The more rigorous disaggregation of the Ind/Oth vote this time produces an artificial drop in the residual vote, and some of the figures for the minor parties look to be based on name recognition rather than concrete appeal (cf. the 2% given for the Stalinist rump of the Stickies who will struggle to run half a dozen candidates next time).

Elsewhere, there have been musings about possible coalition combinations after the next election, with FFers discussing whether or not they should be willing to participate as a junior partner (presumably with FG rather than SF), and FGers musing about an electoral pact with Labour in order to extract the last drops of blood/transfers from its carcass before they discard the husk.

What there hasn't been discussion about, but which strikes me as being at least plausible given last year's unexpected local election results, is the possibility that FF might manage - despite themselves - to outpoll FG in terms of votes and/or seats, and just what happens then.

[Green Line]

Is there a complete list anywhere of retiring tds?  Also when do the majority typically announce that?

[ObserverIE]

Is there a complete list anywhere of retiring tds?

 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Irish_general_election#Retiring_incumbents

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Usually in the run-up to selection conventions.

[Јas]

Just to add to that, two other useful sources on this and other such matters are:
Adrian Kavanagh's blog
Jason Kelleher's Irish Political Maps blog

[Green Line]

Cheers

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 28 (+3)
Ind/Oth 26 (-3)
FF 18 (-)
SF 16 (-2)
Lab 10 (+2)
GP 2 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Ruairí Quinn gets a little "emotional" (as well as possibly "tired") at the Labour Party's annual drinkthink-in.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 28 (-)
FF 20 (-)
SF 19 (-2)
Ind/Oth 18 (+1)
Lab 8 (+1)
SP/SWP 3
Renua 2
GP 1
SD 1

Yes, folks, the Alphabet Left have launched another eternal alliance that will last until about two weeks after the next general election when the SP will accuse the SWP of opportunism and the SWP will accuse the SP of sectarianism. This one goes under the catchy title Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit (i.e. the concatenation of the names of their two front organisations)

SDs apparent total lack of organisation or bodies on the ground not helping them.

Update: More detailed figures here.

[Green Line]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 28 (-)
FF 20 (-)
SF 19 (-2)
Ind/Oth 18 (+1)
Lab 8 (+1)
SP/SWP 3
Renua 2
GP 1
SD 1

Yes, folks, the Alphabet Left have launched another eternal alliance that will last until about two weeks after the next general election when the SP will accuse the SWP of opportunism and the SWP will accuse the SP of sectarianism. This one goes under the catchy title Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit (i.e. the concatenation of the names of their two front organisations)

SDs apparent total lack of organisation or bodies on the ground not helping them.

Whats your best guess on when the election will be called? I'm planning on going back in late March and that's cutting it pretty close I know

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 28 (-)
FF 20 (-)
SF 19 (-2)
Ind/Oth 18 (+1)
Lab 8 (+1)
SP/SWP 3
Renua 2
GP 1
SD 1

Yes, folks, the Alphabet Left have launched another eternal alliance that will last until about two weeks after the next general election when the SP will accuse the SWP of opportunism and the SWP will accuse the SP of sectarianism. This one goes under the catchy title Anti-Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit (i.e. the concatenation of the names of their two front organisations)

SDs apparent total lack of organisation or bodies on the ground not helping them.

Whats your best guess on when the election will be called? I'm planning on going back in late March and that's cutting it pretty close I know

February/early March seems most likely.

[ObserverIE]

Previously-retired Labour TD un-retires, jumps ship.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 24 (-3)
FF 19 (-1)
SF 19 (-)
Ind/Oth 17 (+1)
Lab 8 (+2)
SP 4 (-)
SWP 3 (+2)
Renua 2 (-)
SD 1 (-)
GP 1 (-1)
WP 1 (-1)

(I think I may have been attempted to be polled for this one - I got a phone call on Tuesday night while driving to a meeting from someone with a strong English accent calling on behalf of "an Irish organisation". The combination of the fact that I was running late, the incomprehensibility of the accent, and the poor connection meant that I hung up. When I rang the number later I got a recorded message saying that I had contacted Populus.)

[Oakvale]

Slightly annoying that they're releasing a pre-budget (apparently?) poll now but I suppose they want to see how much the election date hilarity hurt?

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Historic comeback

[ObserverIE]

Slightly annoying that they're releasing a pre-budget (apparently?) poll now but I suppose they want to see how much the election date hilarity hurt?

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Historic comeback

They were still polling on Wednesday, after the budget, and in any case so much of the budget was leaked beforehand that I'm not sure the timing makes any difference.

The bigger question, really, is how reliable B&A are in the first place.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 30 (+2)
Ind/Oth 21 (-5)
FF 20 (+2)
SF 16 (-)
Lab 7 (-3)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 2 (+2)
SP/SWP 1 (+1)
SD 1 (+1)

[YL]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 30 (+2)
Ind/Oth 21 (-5)
FF 20 (+2)
SF 16 (-)
Lab 7 (-3)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 2 (+2)
SP/SWP 1 (+1)
SD 1 (+1)

Given that the Greens, the SDs, the Trots and the abomination that is Renua are listed separately, what does "Ind/Oth" actually mean here in practice?  Healy-Rae junior and friends?

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 30 (+2)
Ind/Oth 21 (-5)
FF 20 (+2)
SF 16 (-)
Lab 7 (-3)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 2 (+2)
SP/SWP 1 (+1)
SD 1 (+1)

Given that the Greens, the SDs, the Trots and the abomination that is Renua are listed separately, what does "Ind/Oth" actually mean here in practice?  Healy-Rae junior and friends?

"and friends" covers a multitude. There are a very broad mixture of current independents, from ex-party loyalists whose selection bids were stamped upon by party HQ (like Healy-Rae Sr.) to the sort of vaguely leftish/populist local campaigners (O'Sullivan, Fintan McGrath, Fitzmaurice) who might well have been Lib Dems in a pre-2010 UK context to Corbynistas avant la lettre (Wallace, Collins, Daly) and the occasional Tory (Ross).

It is in large part a "None of The Above" vote rather than focussed on particular individuals.