Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

IMS/Millward Brown for the Sunday Independent:

FG 29 (+5)
FF 24 (+1)
SF 21 (-)
Ind/Oth 17 (-6)
Lab 7 (-)
GP 1 (-)
Renua 1 (-)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I'm going to make a prediction here:

The government will be re-elected (or at least FG and LAB will be the main part of the next government).

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

IMO Labour should probably take some time to rebuild in opposition.

[Oakvale]

I'm going to make a prediction here:

The government will be re-elected (or at least FG and LAB will be the main part of the next government).

I'm inclined to agree, yes.

As I said the other day, it is fun and strange to be entering a second general election where the leader of FF stands no chance of being Taoiseach.

[Barnes]

Has there been any development on the election date itself? I know there was talk of going after the budget.

[ObserverIE]

I'm going to make a prediction here:

The government will be re-elected (or at least FG and LAB will be the main part of the next government).

FG will probably be - there are enough voters who are doing quite nicely thank you and who're not much bothered about anyone else to get them to the high twenties (roughly equal to the old FG + PD vote). The problem for a Cameron-style continuation of FG/Lab or of FG by themselves is that Labour are heading for a Clegging.

It reminds me a lot of 2007, when a government who weren't either much liked or much trusted got back in because of lack of confidence and coherence in the opposition.

[ObserverIE]

Has there been any development on the election date itself? I know there was talk of going after the budget.

Most likely February, possibly early March.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 26 (+2)
SF 21 (+2)
FF 20 (+1)
Ind/Oth 14 (-3)
Lab 7 (-1)
SWP 5 (+2)
SP 4 (-)
Renua 1 (-1)
SD 1 (-)
GP 1 (-)
WP 0 (-1)

[BundouYMB]

Those are some high numbers for the SP and SWP. Do you find it believable they're that high?

[Oakvale]

Those are some high numbers for the SP and SWP. Do you find it believable they're that high?

Not a chance.

[ObserverIE]

Those are some high numbers for the SP and SWP. Do you find it believable they're that high?

9%? No. But then I don't believe RedC's 1% for them either.

5%, though, would be quite credible.

The thing is that they're not standing under their own names but behind front organisations, "People Before Profit" for the SWP, "Anti-Austerity Alliance" for the SP, which have more appeal and recognition than the parties themselves would have. I would expect them to manage 6 seats (3 of the four they're defending plus gains in Dublin South Central, Dublin Mid West and Cork North Central) with a chance of a couple of others.

By contrast, I think the SDs will hold the three seats they have but I don't see them picking up any others, and I think Renua should hold 2 but will struggle to move beyond that.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Looking forward to the Socialist Worker-Renua coalition government.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 31 (+1)
FF 19 (-1)
SF 18 (+2)
Ind/Oth 15 (-6)
Lab 7 (-)
SP/SWP 4 (+3)
SD 3 (+2)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (-1)

Perpetually scandal-ridden FG TD resigns to stand as an independent. Jas may have a more informed view of how he's perceived down in Monaghan.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 30 (+2)
SF 21 (+2)
FF 19 (-1)
Ind/Oth 15 (-3)
Lab 7 (-1)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
Renua 2 (-)
SD 2 (+1)
GP 2 (+1)

Confirmation of FG consolidating the right-wing vote behind it. Doing best in Dublin and among the upper middle-classes, where the recovery is concentrated, and amongst older voters (65+).

[ObserverIE]

RedC for Paddy Power:

FG 28 (-3)
FF 20 (+1)
SF 18 (-)
Ind/Oth 15 (-)
Lab 9 (+2)
SP/SWP 4 (-)
SD 3 (-)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (-)

[Јas]

Perpetually scandal-ridden FG TD resigns to stand as an independent. Jas may have a more informed view of how he's perceived down in Monaghan.

He was remanded on bail for the assault charge on Wednesday.

Locally he's been essentially running an anti-Heather Humphries (i.e. his Ministerial constituency colleague) campaign for almost a year.

He'll try to be the anti-electricity interconnector candidate (local controversy) and will fail.

Even without the various nonsense going on, his chances of re-election were slight to nil. I'd be pretty surprised if he managed to be vaguely competitive come election day.

[ObserverIE]

Perpetually scandal-ridden FG TD resigns to stand as an independent. Jas may have a more informed view of how he's perceived down in Monaghan.

He was remanded on bail for the assault charge on Wednesday.

Locally he's been essentially running an anti-Heather Humphries (i.e. his Ministerial constituency colleague) campaign for almost a year.

He'll try to be the anti-electricity interconnector candidate (local controversy) and will fail.

Even without the various nonsense going on, his chances of re-election were slight to nil. I'd be pretty surprised if he managed to be vaguely competitive come election day.

That would be what I was expecting - he has never struck me as having the personal charm or rogueish likeability of a Mattie McGrath or a Healy-Rae, and too many of his problems seem to be the result of pursuing his own self-interest (e.g. the diamond ring affair).

Edit: More fun and games in Jas-land. Fortunately the brave Cllr McElvaney was able to thwart this devious Icelandic/FG/RTÉ conspiracy by luring them into his trap...

[ObserverIE]

Hughie breaks the (Irish) internet.

[Јas]

Hughie's radio interview is intensely cringeworthy.

The only thing more depressing is that I don't have confidence that my fellow electors will reduce Cllr McElvaney's vote share at the next election.

[ObserverIE]

Look, I cast my ballot in four successive local elections putting Fr*nk K*lbr*d* (Longford's answer to Hughie) at the end of a long list of preferences.

It worked. It might have taken four elections to do it, but it worked eventually.

[ObserverIE]

Yeah, I don't quite recall my preferences below #4 at the last local election (other than I was rather stumped as to how to pick between them) but Mr McElvaney has, at least, made things a tad easier for me next time.

The worst year was 2009, when not only had I Fr*nk on the local ballot paper, but Declan Ganley in the European elections. Took me about 10 minutes to fill out every preference bar one on two different ballot papers.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 31 (+5)
FF 19 (-1)
SF 17 (-4)
Ind/Oth 13 (-1)
Lab 8 (+1)
SP/SWP 4 (-5)
GP 4 (+3)
Renua 1 (-)
SD 1 (-)
WP 1 (+1)

Looking at the details, the massive changes seem to be the result of the adjustments applied - the unadjusted figures show much smaller changes for FG and SF.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Sorry ObsIE, the correct analysis is:

MASSIVE SWING FROM SOCIALIST WORKERS PARTY TO ENDA KENNY

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 32 (+4)
SF 19 (+1)
FF 17 (-3)
Ind/Oth 14 (-1)
Lab 9 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (-1)
SD 2 (-1)
Renua 2 (+1)
GP 2 (-)

Looking at the SBP polls and ignoring the Paddy Power one, there's a remarkably consistent pattern of FG edging up. Remarkably consistent, really.

[ObserverIE]

Labour leader ends up out of her depth.