Ireland General Discussion

[ObserverIE]

Brian Walsh (FG - Galway West) formally resigns his seat.

He had already announced that he wouldn't be standing for re-election due to ill-health.

[ObserverIE]

Two more polls this evening:

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 30 (-2)
FF 19 (+2)
SF 19 (-)
Ind/Oth 15 (+1)
Lab 9 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
Renua 2 (-)
GP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-1)

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 31 (-)
FF 20 (+1)
SF 16 (-1)
Ind/Oth 15 (+2)
Lab 6 (-2)
SP/SWP 3 (-1)
GP 3 (-1)
Renua 2 (+1)
WP 2 (+1)
SD 1 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Last poll before the general election is called, RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 29 (-1)
SF 19 (-)
FF 17 (-2)
Ind/Oth 16 (+1)
Lab 10 (+1)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
GP 3 (+1)
SD 2 (+1)
Renua 1 (-1)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

HISTORIC COMEBACK and etc...

Kind of wondering who exactly is voting Green in these polls.

[ObserverIE]

HISTORIC COMEBACK and etc...

Kind of wondering who exactly is voting Green in these polls.

Urban social liberals with solar panels and bicycles.

I'm rather puzzled by their vote, the Social Democrat vote, and the Labour vote going up at the same time, but then it is RedC, whose adjustments I tend to take with a pinch of salt.

[Oakvale]

[Јas]

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http://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/michael-healy-rae-tossed-around-by-a-cow-on-farm-1.2581605

[ObserverIE]

RedC poll for Paddy Power (changes since last poll in March):

FG 27 (-)
FF 25 (-)
SF 16 (+1)
Ind/Oth 12 (-4)
SP/SWP 6 (+2)
Lab 5 (+1)
SD 4 (-1)
GP 4 (+1)
Renua 1 (-1)

Insofar, of course, as you can give much credence to RedC after their performance during the election.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 27 (+1)
FG 26 (+3)
SF 16 (-1)
Ind/Oth 15 (-3)
Lab 5 (+1)
SP/SWP 4 (-)
GP 4 (+1)
SD 2 (-)
WP 1 (-2)
Renua 0 (-1)

In vaguely-related news, Lucinda steps down as leader of Renua, which is now deader than the deadest dead parrot, and Joan Burton has stepped down earlier this week, leaving the party desperately trying to find some way of stopping Alan "AK-47" Kelly ascending to the leadership.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is there any chance Gerry Adams steps down as leader of Sinn Fein?

[ObserverIE]

Is there any chance Gerry Adams steps down as leader of Sinn Fein?

No. There might be a chance of them nominating someone else as candidate for Taoiseach.

[Slow Learner]

Is there any chance Gerry Adams steps down as leader of Sinn Fein?

Unfortunately, probably not. I'm afraid that it'll be a long time before we see the back of him.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Brendan Howlin is the new leader of the Labour Party

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lawd

[Tetro Kornbluth]

lawd

My reaction exactly.

[ObserverIE]

The remnants of the parliamentary party collectively decided (with one exception) that they didn't want AK Water Pistol under any circumstances. The one exception being AK himself, who was therefore unable to find a seconder.

Labour continues its slow circling around the drain.

[ObserverIE]

RedC poll for the Sunday Business Post (changes since Paddy Power poll):

FG 26 (-1)
FF 26 (+1)
Ind/Oth 16 (+3)
SF 15 (-1)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 5 (-1)
SD 4 (-)
GP 2 (-2)

(Renua drop off radar)

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FG 26 (-)
FF 25 (-2)
SF 17 (+1)
Ind/Oth 15 (-)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 4 (-)
GP 3 (-1)
WP 2 (+1)
SD 1 (-1)
Renua 1 (+1)

Margin of error stuff for everybody, with hilarious increases for the two zombie parties, and no sign of a Howlin Gale for Labour.

[Хahar 🤔]

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

[ObserverIE]

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

Not unless whatever remains of the UK joins it, or unless the border goes (which is unlikely, though a good deal less unlikely today than it was before last Friday).

We are not going to lock ourselves in a cage for the benefit of France and Germany as part of a spat with Britain. Good will towards the EU is not all that high here and Brexit is capable of doing much more damage to us than to any other EU country already without making things even worse.

[ag]

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

Not unless whatever remains of the UK joins it, or unless the border goes (which is unlikely, though a good deal less unlikely today than it was before last Friday).

We are not going to lock ourselves in a cage for the benefit of France and Germany as part of a spat with Britain. Good will towards the EU is not all that high here and Brexit is capable of doing much more damage to us than to any other EU country already without making things even worse.

Well, but Ireland could insist on the UK joining Schengen as part of the EU negotiations. Would they want to do it?

In general, this is the best chance Irish have had in many decades of getting concessions from the Brits. What would you want?

[ObserverIE]

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

Not unless whatever remains of the UK joins it, or unless the border goes (which is unlikely, though a good deal less unlikely today than it was before last Friday).

We are not going to lock ourselves in a cage for the benefit of France and Germany as part of a spat with Britain. Good will towards the EU is not all that high here and Brexit is capable of doing much more damage to us than to any other EU country already without making things even worse.

Well, but Ireland could insist on the UK joining Schengen as part of the EU negotiations. Would they want to do it?

In general, this is the best chance Irish have had in many decades of getting concessions from the Brits. What would you want?

We are physically separated from the Schengen zone in any case - the only direct connections are by air or ferry, any land travel has to go through the non-Schengen UK. The disadvantages of joining far outweigh the advantages for us.

By and large, what we want is what we already have but are at risk of losing through this almighty, stupid, self-destructive, f**k-up - an almost imperceptible border between North and South, free movement of people and goods between two tightly integrated economies on either side of the border, a common travel and customs area between Ireland and the rUK, the preservation of the Good Friday Agreement institutions.

The fear is that we (both North and South) end up being crushed between two stubborn warring factions, both of which view us as being geographically and politically peripheral.

[ag]

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

Not unless whatever remains of the UK joins it, or unless the border goes (which is unlikely, though a good deal less unlikely today than it was before last Friday).

We are not going to lock ourselves in a cage for the benefit of France and Germany as part of a spat with Britain. Good will towards the EU is not all that high here and Brexit is capable of doing much more damage to us than to any other EU country already without making things even worse.

Well, but Ireland could insist on the UK joining Schengen as part of the EU negotiations. Would they want to do it?

In general, this is the best chance Irish have had in many decades of getting concessions from the Brits. What would you want?

We are physically separated from the Schengen zone in any case - the only direct connections are by air or ferry, any land travel has to go through the non-Schengen UK. The disadvantages of joining far outweigh the advantages for us.

Assuming England joins, what ARE the disadvantages for you?

[ObserverIE]

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

Not unless whatever remains of the UK joins it, or unless the border goes (which is unlikely, though a good deal less unlikely today than it was before last Friday).

We are not going to lock ourselves in a cage for the benefit of France and Germany as part of a spat with Britain. Good will towards the EU is not all that high here and Brexit is capable of doing much more damage to us than to any other EU country already without making things even worse.

Well, but Ireland could insist on the UK joining Schengen as part of the EU negotiations. Would they want to do it?

In general, this is the best chance Irish have had in many decades of getting concessions from the Brits. What would you want?

We are physically separated from the Schengen zone in any case - the only direct connections are by air or ferry, any land travel has to go through the non-Schengen UK. The disadvantages of joining far outweigh the advantages for us.

Assuming England joins, what ARE the disadvantages for you?

This is slightly circular, but the disadvantage is that the UK is not in Schengen and we do not want a heavily-policed border between NI and RoI under any circumstances.

If the UK was in Schengen, that would be irrelevant, but the danger of insisting that the UK join Schengen during negotiations is that if the negotiations then collapse, we end up being expected to join Schengen anyway as a demonstration of some sort of kamikaze European solidarity.

[ag]

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

Not unless whatever remains of the UK joins it, or unless the border goes (which is unlikely, though a good deal less unlikely today than it was before last Friday).

We are not going to lock ourselves in a cage for the benefit of France and Germany as part of a spat with Britain. Good will towards the EU is not all that high here and Brexit is capable of doing much more damage to us than to any other EU country already without making things even worse.

Well, but Ireland could insist on the UK joining Schengen as part of the EU negotiations. Would they want to do it?

In general, this is the best chance Irish have had in many decades of getting concessions from the Brits. What would you want?

We are physically separated from the Schengen zone in any case - the only direct connections are by air or ferry, any land travel has to go through the non-Schengen UK. The disadvantages of joining far outweigh the advantages for us.

Assuming England joins, what ARE the disadvantages for you?

This is slightly circular, but the disadvantage is that the UK is not in Schengen and we do not want a heavily-policed border between NI and RoI under any circumstances.

If the UK was in Schengen, that would be irrelevant, but the danger of insisting that the UK join Schengen during negotiations is that if the negotiations then collapse, we end up being expected to join Schengen anyway as a demonstration of some sort of kamikaze European solidarity.

UK has a lot more to loose if negotiations collapse. So, negotiations will not collapse.