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Author Topic: Ireland General Discussion  (Read 277383 times)
ObserverIE
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« Reply #1200 on: June 29, 2016, 01:43:51 PM »

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

Not unless whatever remains of the UK joins it, or unless the border goes (which is unlikely, though a good deal less unlikely today than it was before last Friday).

We are not going to lock ourselves in a cage for the benefit of France and Germany as part of a spat with Britain. Good will towards the EU is not all that high here and Brexit is capable of doing much more damage to us than to any other EU country already without making things even worse.

Well, but Ireland could insist on the UK joining Schengen as part of the EU negotiations. Would they want to do it?

In general, this is the best chance Irish have had in many decades of getting concessions from the Brits. What would you want?

We are physically separated from the Schengen zone in any case - the only direct connections are by air or ferry, any land travel has to go through the non-Schengen UK. The disadvantages of joining far outweigh the advantages for us.


Assuming England joins, what ARE the disadvantages for you?

This is slightly circular, but the disadvantage is that the UK is not in Schengen and we do not want a heavily-policed border between NI and RoI under any circumstances.

If the UK was in Schengen, that would be irrelevant, but the danger of insisting that the UK join Schengen during negotiations is that if the negotiations then collapse, we end up being expected to join Schengen anyway as a demonstration of some sort of kamikaze European solidarity.

UK has a lot more to loose if negotiations collapse. So, negotiations will not collapse.

That assumes that everyone is thinking rationally.
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ag
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« Reply #1201 on: June 29, 2016, 03:35:28 PM »

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

Not unless whatever remains of the UK joins it, or unless the border goes (which is unlikely, though a good deal less unlikely today than it was before last Friday).

We are not going to lock ourselves in a cage for the benefit of France and Germany as part of a spat with Britain. Good will towards the EU is not all that high here and Brexit is capable of doing much more damage to us than to any other EU country already without making things even worse.

Well, but Ireland could insist on the UK joining Schengen as part of the EU negotiations. Would they want to do it?

In general, this is the best chance Irish have had in many decades of getting concessions from the Brits. What would you want?

We are physically separated from the Schengen zone in any case - the only direct connections are by air or ferry, any land travel has to go through the non-Schengen UK. The disadvantages of joining far outweigh the advantages for us.


Assuming England joins, what ARE the disadvantages for you?

This is slightly circular, but the disadvantage is that the UK is not in Schengen and we do not want a heavily-policed border between NI and RoI under any circumstances.

If the UK was in Schengen, that would be irrelevant, but the danger of insisting that the UK join Schengen during negotiations is that if the negotiations then collapse, we end up being expected to join Schengen anyway as a demonstration of some sort of kamikaze European solidarity.

UK has a lot more to loose if negotiations collapse. So, negotiations will not collapse.

That assumes that everyone is thinking rationally.

I think this is a pretty reasonable assumption for the actual negotiators.
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swl
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« Reply #1202 on: July 01, 2016, 09:24:24 AM »

Is anyone in Ireland talking about increased immigration from the EU if the UK limits its own immigration?
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1203 on: July 01, 2016, 08:07:30 PM »

Is anyone in Ireland talking about increased immigration from the EU if the UK limits its own immigration?

Ireland already has higher (proportionally) EU10 migration than the UK does ftr.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1204 on: July 02, 2016, 05:09:35 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2016, 05:20:41 PM by ObserverIE »


It's not that there isn't some resentment and overt racism towards immigrants (though more so toward subgroups such as Romani, West Africans, and Afghans who arrived either before the expansion of the EU or are non-EU to begin with) but, to use a phrase from history, it's not "carefully fostered" by the tabloid press or by mainstream politicians. The groups who do try to play to it are obvious freaks and nutjobs (see the link above) and so are ignored. We shouldn't be complacent, but we don't, thank God, have an equivalent of Farage or the Daily Express. Populist protest here is left-wing in character and rather more accurately aimed at government policies rather than non-involved third parties.

p.s. Actually, I think Identity Ireland were trying to link up with Polish Korwin supporters in Ireland to form a branch of Pegida.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1205 on: July 02, 2016, 06:00:16 PM »

First IMS/Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent since the general election (changes are with their final pre-election poll - I'm trying to take account of the house effects):

FG 30 (+3)
FF 26 (+3)
SF 20 (+1)
Ind/Oth 8 (-7)
Lab 7 (+1)
SP/SWP 4 (-2)
GP 3 (+1)
SD 2 (-2)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1206 on: July 07, 2016, 06:19:15 AM »
« Edited: July 07, 2016, 06:48:12 AM by ObserverIE »

A rather different picture from Ipsos/MRBI, who have generally been the most accurate pollster over the last decade. Crumb of comfort for Gully, Oakvale and Jas: this one could always be a rogue. Again, changes since the last poll before the election:

FF 33 (+10)
FG 24 (-4)
SF 16 (+1)
Ind/Oth 14 (-6)
Lab 5 (-1)
GP 4 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
SD 2 (-1)

FWIW, this may be exaggerating real trends - if it was FF 30 FG 27 I'd not be at all surprised by the figures. With them next door having a collective nervous breakdown and the sparks from the burning roof threatening to set our own house on fire, the seeming coolness and competence of Martin may be more attractive than the stiffness of Kenny.

What will be interesting is what effect this poll will have on the nerves of FG backbenchers and the ambition of FG leadership contenders. The last heave against Kenny in 2010 followed an MRBI poll (which in retrospect was probably a rogue) that showed FG behind Labour and set off the "Gilmore for Taoiseach" bandwagon, long ago dismantled for scrap.
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vileplume
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« Reply #1207 on: July 07, 2016, 03:23:41 PM »

Given that some sort of border controls with Britain will presumably now be set up, is there any chance of Ireland joining the Schengen area?

Not unless whatever remains of the UK joins it, or unless the border goes (which is unlikely, though a good deal less unlikely today than it was before last Friday).

We are not going to lock ourselves in a cage for the benefit of France and Germany as part of a spat with Britain. Good will towards the EU is not all that high here and Brexit is capable of doing much more damage to us than to any other EU country already without making things even worse.

Well, but Ireland could insist on the UK joining Schengen as part of the EU negotiations. Would they want to do it?

In general, this is the best chance Irish have had in many decades of getting concessions from the Brits. What would you want?

We are physically separated from the Schengen zone in any case - the only direct connections are by air or ferry, any land travel has to go through the non-Schengen UK. The disadvantages of joining far outweigh the advantages for us.


Assuming England joins, what ARE the disadvantages for you?

ag I know you want the uk to join Schengen but it is not even vaguely likely. The EUs offer will be probably be immigration status quo (current arrangement) and access to the free market take, it or leave it. Any offer including Schengen would be automatically rejected (regardless of what the rest of the offer is) so the EU won't even try.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1208 on: July 09, 2016, 06:24:51 PM »

A rather different picture from Ipsos/MRBI, who have generally been the most accurate pollster over the last decade. Crumb of comfort for Gully, Oakvale and Jas: this one could always be a rogue. Again, changes since the last poll before the election:

FF 33 (+10)
FG 24 (-4)
SF 16 (+1)
Ind/Oth 14 (-6)
Lab 5 (-1)
GP 4 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
SD 2 (-1)

FWIW, this may be exaggerating real trends - if it was FF 30 FG 27 I'd not be at all surprised by the figures. With them next door having a collective nervous breakdown and the sparks from the burning roof threatening to set our own house on fire, the seeming coolness and competence of Martin may be more attractive than the stiffness of Kenny.

What will be interesting is what effect this poll will have on the nerves of FG backbenchers and the ambition of FG leadership contenders. The last heave against Kenny in 2010 followed an MRBI poll (which in retrospect was probably a rogue) that showed FG behind Labour and set off the "Gilmore for Taoiseach" bandwagon, long ago dismantled for scrap.

Aaanndd on cue, the FG backbenchers begin to get restless.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1209 on: July 16, 2016, 06:18:47 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2016, 07:27:21 PM by ObserverIE »

Two more polls this weekend to confirm FG backbench jitters:

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 30 (+5)
FG 25 (-1)
SF 14 (-3)
Ind/Oth 12 (-3)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 5 (+1)
WP 3 (+1)
SD 2 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
Renua 0 (-1)

The forward march of Stalinism continues unabated down at the bottom of the polls.

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 29 (+3)
FG 26 (-)
SF 13 (-2)
Ind/Oth 13 (-3)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 5 (-)
SD 4 (-)
GP 4 (+2)
Renua 1 (+1)

I think it's safe to assume that FF are now back as the largest party, causing latte liberals and carpet-chewing conspiracy theorists alike to froth at the mouth. A cynic might note that FF are having more success in putting manners on FG while in opposition than Labour had for five years in government.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1210 on: July 20, 2016, 06:42:55 PM »

(Republic of) Ireland constituency review 2016-17 (a thread I've started that folks visiting this thread might be interested in)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1211 on: July 29, 2016, 07:20:19 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2016, 07:22:09 PM by ObserverIE »

RedC for Paddy Power:

FF 28 (-1)
FG 27 (+1)
Ind/Oth 16 (+2)
SF 15 (+2)
Lab 4 (-2)
SP/SWP 4 (-1)
SD 3 (-1)
GP 3 (-1)
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Cassius
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« Reply #1212 on: September 02, 2016, 08:05:25 AM »

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Noonan

Assuming it hasn't been removed, someone is evidently unhappy about Finance Minister Michael Noonan' stance on this Apple tax business.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1213 on: September 05, 2016, 08:48:21 AM »

Stephen Donnelly walks away from the Social Democrats.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1214 on: September 17, 2016, 07:38:45 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 28 (-2)
FG 23 (-2)
SF 18 (+4)
Ind/Oth 16 (+4)
Lab 7 (+1)
SP/SWP 4 (-1)
SD 1 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
WP 1 (-2)
Renua 0 (-)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1215 on: September 24, 2016, 04:52:35 PM »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post (changes since the Paddy Power poll):

FF 27 (-1)
FG 25 (-2)
SF 15 (-)
Ind/Oth 14 (-2)
Lab 7 (+3)
SP/SWP 6 (+2)
SD 4 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1216 on: October 06, 2016, 11:07:08 AM »

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FG 26 (+2)
FF 26 (-7)
SF 19 (+3)
Ind/Oth 16 (+2)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 3 (-1)
SD 2 (-)

The big "drop" for FF is almost certainly a reversion to the mean from the freakishly high figure last time. But it may have the effect of reassuring nerves in FG and easing the pressure on Kenny to depart over the next few months.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1217 on: October 15, 2016, 06:24:13 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 30 (+2)
FG 26 (+3)
SF 17 (-1)
Ind/Oth 15 (-1)
Lab 5 (-2)
WP 3 (+2)
SP/SWP 2 (-2)
GP 2 (-)
Renua 1 (+1)
SD 0 (-1)

WP and Renua figures beyond belief.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1218 on: October 22, 2016, 07:38:03 PM »

IMS/Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent:

FG 29 (-1)
FF 27 (+1)
SF 20 (-)
Lab 8 (+1)
Ind/Oth 8 (-)
SP/SWP 5 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
SD 1 (-1)
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1219 on: October 29, 2016, 12:27:36 PM »

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 26 (-1)
FG 25 (-2)
Ind/Oth 16 (+2)
SF 13 (-2)
SP/SWP 9 (+3)
Lab 5 (-2)
SD 3 (-1)
GP 3 (+1)

We are, apparently, marching in unison behind the Trotskyist vanguards (at least until the vanguards open fire on each other). Colour me skeptical.
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Green Line
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« Reply #1220 on: October 29, 2016, 02:15:16 PM »

Ireland needs electoral reform.  The current system is getting ridiculous with all these independents and little Trotsky parties. 
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1221 on: October 29, 2016, 07:34:18 PM »
« Edited: October 29, 2016, 07:37:27 PM by ObserverIE »

Ireland needs electoral reform.  The current system is getting ridiculous with all these independents and little Trotsky parties.  

We have an effective quota of 10-12% per electoral district to get a seat. The fragmentation is a consequence of the three traditional parties successively discrediting themselves, not its cause. And while I despise the cynical nihilism of the Trots and despair at some of the independents, at least it means that resentment isn't getting channeled into a Fronta Náisiúnta or an Éirí Órga.

(Besides, the 9% is almost certainly a rogue to begin with. 5% or 6% would be just about credible.)
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1222 on: November 12, 2016, 01:59:03 AM »
« Edited: November 12, 2016, 02:01:01 AM by Kevinstat »

The first seven submissions to the Constituency Commission regarding the present constituency review are online, including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).  More commentary of mine on the thread I started on the review back in July.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1223 on: November 12, 2016, 05:54:32 PM »

including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).

Said councillor very narrowly missed out on taking the last seat in Offaly in February.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #1224 on: November 12, 2016, 06:00:29 PM »

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 30 (-)
FG 28 (+2)
SF 17 (-)
Ind/Oth 16 (+1)
Lab 3 (-2)
SP/SWP 3 (+1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 0 (-)
Renua 0 (-1)
WP 0 (-3)
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