Ireland General Discussion

[Kevinstat]

including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).

Said councillor very narrowly missed out on taking the last seat in Offaly in February.

So that's his motivation.  Still, you'd think a five-seat Laois-Offaly constituency shedding northern Tipperary (12-seat, 3 constituency Limerick-Tipperary combo) and western Kildare and with some of southeastern County Laois also moving to Kildare South (which would become a four-seater or remain a three-seater but with Kildare North gaining territory and becoming a five-seater) would suit him just fine, and have the benefit of being something the commission could actually do.

[ObserverIE]

including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).

Said councillor very narrowly missed out on taking the last seat in Offaly in February.

So that's his motivation.  Still, you'd think a five-seat Laois-Offaly constituency shedding northern Tipperary (12-seat, 3 constituency Limerick-Tipperary combo) and western Kildare and with some of southeastern County Laois also moving to Kildare South (which would become a four-seater or remain a three-seater but with Kildare North gaining territory and becoming a five-seater) would suit him just fine, and have the benefit of being something the commission could actually do.

Just give him Portarlington and I imagine he'd be quite happy.

[Kevinstat]

including one (PDF) from a Councilor from County Offaly who pays little heed to such things as a commission's terms of reference (or grammar for that matter).

Said councillor very narrowly missed out on taking the last seat in Offaly in February.

So that's his motivation.  Still, you'd think a five-seat Laois-Offaly constituency shedding northern Tipperary (12-seat, 3 constituency Limerick-Tipperary combo) and western Kildare and with some of southeastern County Laois also moving to Kildare South (which would become a four-seater or remain a three-seater but with Kildare North gaining territory and becoming a five-seater) would suit him just fine, and have the benefit of being something the commission could actually do.

Just give him Portarlington and I imagine he'd be quite happy.

I was referencing the fact that he had requested Laois-Offaly be reinstated as a six-seater.  He might have meant a five-seater (as Laois-Offaly was from 1923 until it was broken up in the last review) and just had a moment of absent-mindedness.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FG 25 (-)
FF 24 (-2)
Ind/Oth 17 (+1)
SF 16 (+3)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 5 (-4)
SD 4 (+1)
GP 3 (-)
Renua 1 (+1)

The most FG-friendly pollster returns to giving it a lead. The Trotskyite "surge" in the last poll subsides - perhaps the voters need to see more of Ruth Coppinger's winning scowl. Labour parrot still resting.

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FF 30 (+4)
FG 27 (+1)
SF 17 (-2)
Ind/Oth 12 (-4)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
GP 3 (-)
SD 2 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 28 (-2)
FG 26 (-2)
SF 19 (+2)
Ind/Oth 15 (-1)
Lab 5 (+2) #laboursurge
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
GP 3 (+1)
SD 1 (+1)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Ireland Thinks (a new polling company founded by a former adviser to Joan Burton and a Labour market research guy - given the seeming lack of awareness of their coming doom that Labour had before last February this may not be an ideal pedigree) for the Irish Daily Mail (changes since a previous poll in October):

FF 31 (+5)
FG 28 (+1)
SF 16 (-)
Ind/Oth 10 (-6)
Lab 6 (-1)
SP/SWP 4 (+1)
GP 3 (+1)
SD 2 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 29 (+1)
FG 23 (-3)
Ind/Oth 18 (+3)
SF 17 (-2)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 5 (+1)
GP 3 (-)
SD 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)
WP 0 (-)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 27 (+3)
FG 24 (-1)
Ind/Oth 17 (-)
SF 14 (-2)
Lab 5 (-)
SP/SWP 4 (-1)
SD 4 (-)
GP 4 (+1)
Renua 1 (-)

[Kevinstat]

Does anyone care to comment on my two submissions (the second a partial amendment to the first) to Ireland's Constituency Commission?

Of course, a better place to comment than on this thread might be on the thread I have on the current review on the Political Geography & Demographics board on this forum.  Or one could go to the thread with the same name that I started on the International Politics board of another forum that shall not be named.

[ObserverIE]

Stephen Donnelly, formerly one of the triumvirate in charge of the Social Democrats, finds a new ship to sail in.

[joevsimp]

Stephen Donnelly, formerly one of the triumvirate in charge of the Social Democrats, finds a new ship to sail in.

Does this now leave the Green/SD technical group short of quorum amd in tje lurch?

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 32 (+3)
FG 21 (-2)
SF 19 (+2)
Ind/Oth 13 (-5)
Lab 6 (+1)
SP/SWP 3 (-2)
SD 2 (+1)
GP 2 (-1)
WP 1 (+1)
Renua 0 (-)

#donnellyeffect

Just for Oakvale

[Green Line]

So is Fianna Fail really moving to the left?  I guess they don't really have an ideology per se.

[DavidB.]

Are FF going to make the government collapse if they continue to poll this well?

[ObserverIE]

So is Fianna Fail really moving to the left?  I guess they don't really have an ideology per se.

Economically, they would always have been to the left of FG (except when they were pulled rightwards by the PDs) - don't confuse social conservatism with its economic equivalent. Note the words "to the left of FG" which covers most of the economic spectrum, even inoffensive centrism.

[ObserverIE]

Are FF going to make the government collapse if they continue to poll this well?

We are currently in the middle of a political/policing scandal which has been rumbling on for a couple of years from the days of Alan Shatter and Martin Callanan but which has come to the boil again last week.

It has emerged that one of the police whistleblowers who raised concerns about dubious policing was wrongly accused of sexual molestation by the daughter of one of the policemen whose misbehaviour had been called out. The accusation was found to be groundless, but an accusation of more serious child sexual abuse was "accidentally cut and pasted" into his file with the state child protection agency, and senior members of the police - allegedly including the current Commissioner - are alleged to have briefed journalists and politicians about these abuse allegations despite knowing their falsity.

SF have put down a no-confidence motion in the Minister for Justice for this week's Dáil session. FF are bound under the confidence and supply arrangement to abstain in such votes but have made it clear that they're unhappy with the action or lack of same by the current Minister for Justice (whose creature the current Commissioner is).

https://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/exclusive-false-sex-allegation-against-mccabe-circulated-by-tusla-following-clerical-error-442503.html

http://www.irishexaminer.com/viewpoints/analysis/michael-clifford-cock-up-or-conspiracy-its-time-to-come-clean-about-maurice-mccabe-claims-442763.html

https://www.rte.ie/news/2017/0210/851628-maurice-mccabe/

[ObserverIE]

IMS/Millward Brown poll for the Sunday Independent:

FF 33 (+6)
FG 25 (-4)
SF 20 (-)
Ind/Oth 9 (+1)
Lab 6 (-2)
SP/SWP 3 (-2)
SD 2 (+1)
GP 2 (-)

Leo Varadkar starting to show his impatience with Kenny's failure to do the decent thing.

[Green Line]

I think Enda will be gone by the end of March.  The knives are out and the writing is on the wall. 

Fianna Fail had the opportunity to bring down the government this week but didn't do it, so it looks like we will see another FG taoiseach.

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 26 (-1)
FG 24 (-)
SF 19 (+5)
Ind/Oth 13 (-4)
SP/SWP 6 (+2)
Lab 4 (-1)
GP 4 (-)
SD 3 (-1)
Renua 1 (-)

[ObserverIE]

Ipsos/MRBI for the Irish Times:

FF 29 (-1)
FG 28 (+1)
SF 21 (+4)
Ind/Oth 10 (-2)
Lab 4 (-2)
SP/SWP 3 (-)
GP 3 (-)
SD 1 (-1)

The Irish Times's Stephen Collins throws a full-scale tantrum over FF's failure to do as it's told by FG.

[ObserverIE]

Behaviour & Attitudes for the Sunday Times:

FF 28 (-4)
SF 23 (+4)
FG 22 (+1)
Ind/Oth 14 (+1)
Lab 6 (-)
SP/SWP 2 (-1)
GP 2 (-)
SD 1 (-1)
WP 1 (-)
Renua 0 (-)

[ObserverIE]

RedC for the Sunday Business Post:

FF 26 (-)
FG 24 (-)
SF 17 (-2)
Ind/Oth 16 (+3)
Lab 6 (+2)
SP/SWP 4 (-2)
GP 4 (-)
SD 3 (-)
Renua 0 (-1)

[ObserverIE]

Ireland Thinks  for the Irish Daily Mail:

FF 27 (-4)
FG 25 (-3)
SF 17 (+1)
Ind/Oth 15 (+5)
Lab 5 (-1)
SD 4 (+2)
SP/SWP 3 (-1)
GP 3 (-)

[Kevinstat]

Census 2016 Summary Results are out.

The best place for discussion of those, and the current review, might be this thread that I started last July and just posted in (with links to the results and commentary) a few minutes ago.