VA Republican Primary Predictions

[Frodo]

And state your reasons why. 

[Rob]

George Allen

[Stranger in a strange land]

George Allen

I hope so. I've been hoping Allen would make a comeback so jokes about him would stay fresh and he'd give us even more amusement.

Actually in terms of election matchups, I can't think of anything funnier than a primary fight between him and Gilmore!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

George Allen

I hope so. I've been hoping Allen would make a comeback so jokes about him would stay fresh and he'd give us even more amusement.

Actually in terms of election matchups, I can't think of anything funnier than a primary fight between him and Gilmore!

HAHAHAHAHA, which former Republican Presidential aspirant gets to lose to either Warner or Kaine? HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[WalterMitty]

an allen vs. gilmore primary would be interesting.  i think gilmore would win.

[Sam Spade]

an allen vs. gilmore primary would be interesting.  i think gilmore would win.

Won't happen.  It'll be Davis vs. Allen/Gilmore, and I suspect Gilmore wants to run for the Senate much more than Allen.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I am staying out of this speculation for now.  Too much is yet to be settled; whether Mark Warner or not runs really affects the dynamics of the race.  I imagine there are a number of Republicans in Virginia who would like to run for the Senate; from the Congressional delagation Davis, as well Goodlatte and Forbes.  Then there is the additional wildcard of Jim Gilmore, and dare I say it, George Allen, although the GOP should really do their best to keep him out of the race at all cost if they want even a credible opponent against Warner (yes I think he probably will run).  I will say that the Virginia Republican Primary electorate is very conservative (quelle suprise!) and almost denied John Warner the nomination in 1996.  I believe that Davis' path to the nomination would not be at all clear if he faced vocal conservative opposition; the only question is who - Gilmore is hardly the best candidate I gather. 

[SPC]

I've been hoping Allen would make a comeback so jokes about him would stay fresh and he'd give us even more amusement.

I really hope it is Aleen for humorous reasons, but Gilmore for policy reasons (he seems to be more of a fiscal conservative than Davis). However,, I suspect that Davis will win the primary.

[MarkWarner08]

And state your reasons why. 

Davis.

Gilmore lacks the cash or the establishment backing to win a VA GOP primary. Gilmore also has tapped out most of his cadre of friends for his ill-fated Presidential campaign. Expect Davis's assiduous network building and political acumen to overwhelm Gilmore in the primary.

This scenario depends of Davis' ability to convince the other VA House Republicans not to run. If Davis, for some odd reason, decides not run, expect Eric Cantor to run.

[Democratic Hawk]

Does the Club for Growth carry much clout in Virginia? Toomey hath spoken:

“Tom Davis has one of the most economically liberal records among Republicans in the House ... Since Republican voters in Virginia are decidedly economic conservatives, it’s hard to see how Davis could win a statewide primary.”

http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2007/08/tom_davis_is_no_economic_conse.php

Personally, it's reassuring to know that not all Republicans are putrid

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does the Club for Growth carry much clout in Virginia?

No idea, but I'd have thought so; there's been a strong ultra-Right element in the Virginia Republicans for decades.

[Frodo]

Does the Club for Growth carry much clout in Virginia?

I am not sure about the Club for Growth in particular, but the anti-tax movement here in Virginia is still very strong, and is gaining (or perhaps regaining) influence within the state GOP.  To use an example, they are the reason why targeted fees were used to fund transportation improvements in a bill (the largest transportation bill in a generation) that recently passed the General Assembly, as opposed to a more general gas tax increase.  And it is worth keeping in mind that they derive much of their strength from the fact that most of Virginia outside of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads is still impoverished, and therefore a tax increase to someone struggling to make a living in Salem has a different impact than to a commuter stuck in traffic trying to get home to Manassas from work.