will Mark Warner run for US Senate from VA in 2008?

[© tweed]

simple question.

[Lief 🗽]

Most politicians wouldn't turn down a free senate seat.

[they don't love you like i love you]

He ran in 1996, I don't see why he would pass up an open seat.

[Tender Branson]

"A spokeswoman said Mark Warner would make his plans public in about a week."

[Aizen]

"A spokeswoman said Mark Warner would make his plans public in about a week."

So we'll know soon? Excellent. I think he'll run.

[Tender Branson]

"A spokeswoman said Mark Warner would make his plans public in about a week."

So we'll know soon? Excellent. I think he'll run.

I hope he will. Given the fact that Mark Warner won VA by 5% in 2001 but didn´t win NoVA in that year, a fast-growing region heavily trending Democratic in recent years, we can assume that the man who left office with an 80% approval rating will win by 55-45, except he says something macacarish. VA will be a lot "redder" next year if he decides to run ...

[Smash255]

I think he will run, and wins rather easily.  The real question should be does the GOP even try to compete there or do they write it off knowing they have to defend so much?

[bullmoose88]

I think he will run, and wins rather easily.  The real question should be does the GOP even try to compete there or do they write it off knowing they have to defend so much?

Davis could give Warner a run for his money...but yeah...thats an uphill battle.

[sethm0]

 Like most politicians, Warner's ultimate goal is probably be to become President.

 He realized that he could not yet win in 2008, so he withdrew from consideration early. He was probably thinking that he could be tapped for the VP slot, or that he could run for Governor again in '09 and be a front-runner for the national ticket in 2012 (so long as the Democrats lost in 2008).

 Now, both of those plans are falling through. It looks like a Democrat most likely will win in 2008, and it is far from a sure thing that he would be picked as a VP nominee. In any case, now that John Warner is retiring, Mark Warner can't really wait around until the spring to see if he is asked to be Vice President and then run for the Senate if he is not.
 
 I think all of this makes it likely that he will run for Senate. He's still young enough that he could do a term or two in the Senate and make a national ticket later on down the road.

[WalterMitty]

Most politicians wouldn't turn down a free senate seat.

most politicians wouldnt turn down a free governor's seat either.

warner has his choice...senate or governor.  he will easily win either.

in the end, he will probably choose the senate.

i may be in the minority, but i think another term as governor in 09, would better serve is presidenital ambitions in 2012 or 2016.

[Sam Spade]

As a rule, if Mark Warner ever wants to be President, he should stay as far away from the Senate as possible.  I don't know whether that's his ambition or whether he would even listen, but if anyone's telling him that, it would be rock-solid advice.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

If he runs, the seat is pretty much his.  He is very well liked throughout the state, and he would win easily.

[Lief 🗽]

Most politicians wouldn't turn down a free senate seat.

most politicians wouldnt turn down a free governor's seat either.

warner has his choice...senate or governor.  he will easily win either.

in the end, he will probably choose the senate.

i may be in the minority, but i think another term as governor in 09, would better serve is presidenital ambitions in 2012 or 2016.

Well, being a Senator gives you more national name recognition. Senators go on talk shows and Meet the Press and what not, and people see them on a TV. Who do you think is more known amongst the American public: Webb or Kaine?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I met Mark Warner back at a Democratic Party fundraiser last year in Trenton.  He was a very impressive speaker, and when I was introduced to him, he immediately recognized me (incorrectly, I should add) as a "blogger."

I'm guessing Hillary chased him out of the race with a VP promise.  I could be wrong about that, of course, but Warner had a rock solid NJ organization up until the surprise announcement he was dropping out of the Presidental sweepstakes.

I honestly think he'll ride out 2008 hoping for the VP nod, and if he doesn't make it, land where he feels most comfortable: Virginia's governor's mansion.

[© tweed]

Most politicians wouldn't turn down a free senate seat.

most politicians wouldnt turn down a free governor's seat either.

warner has his choice...senate or governor.  he will easily win either.

in the end, he will probably choose the senate.

i may be in the minority, but i think another term as governor in 09, would better serve is presidenital ambitions in 2012 or 2016.

Well, being a Senator gives you more national name recognition. Senators go on talk shows and Meet the Press and what not, and people see them on a TV. Who do you think is more known amongst the American public: Webb or Kaine?

no sitting senator has been elected president since 1960

[Lief 🗽]

Sure, but can you point me to an election where someone lost because they were a senator? And really, how many senators have run for President since 1960? McGovern, Goldwater, Dole and Kerry. Goldwater lost because he was an extremist, McGovern lost because Nixon out-campaigned him and he was far-left, Dole was an old has-been against a charismatic, popular President. The only case of being a Senator hurting one's election chances was Kerry, due to his flip-flopping in the Senate.

[© tweed]

Kerry's 20yr voting record in the Senate certainly didn't help him.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Kerry's 20yr voting record in the Senate certainly didn't help him.

But Warner wouldn't have a 20 year voting record if he made a run.

Besides, that trend looks likely to be broken in 2008, since the only serious candidates who aren't/weren't senators are Romney and Giuliani, and Romney is a sure loser.

[Lief 🗽]

Kerry's 20yr voting record in the Senate certainly didn't help him.

Well, Warner would run sometime before his first term is up, I assume.

EDIT: Meant second term. He'll run in 2016 if he wins the Senate seat.

[© tweed]

his voting record would be at the better part of a decade by 2016, which is probably the first chance he'd have to run, assuming he doesn't Ted Kennedy.

his best M.O. obviously, is he wants to run for president, is to run for Gov in 2009, win 65% of the vote, do nothing special, leave office with 80% approval ratings, and follow a Jimmy Carter model for 2016.  of course he'll be more visible by then so he won't have to rise through obscurity riding a tide of anti-Washingtonism with an army of lovable congressional losers running errands for him around the country.

Warner knows this, and he won't run for the US Senate.  I promise

[MarkWarner08]

his voting record would be at the better part of a decade by 2016, which is probably the first chance he'd have to run, assuming he doesn't Ted Kennedy.

his best M.O. obviously, is he wants to run for president, is to run for Gov in 2009, win 65% of the vote, do nothing special, leave office with 80% approval ratings, and follow a Jimmy Carter model for 2016.  of course he'll be more visible by then so he won't have to rise through obscurity riding a tide of anti-Washingtonism with an army of lovable congressional losers running errands for him around the country.

Warner knows this, and he won't run for the US Senate.  I promise

Boss, Isn't a  political job in the hand is worth two political jobs in the bush? Sure, I botched that apothegm --- I never squander an opportunity to use the word "apothegm" in a sentence -- but it could be argued that being Senator would provide Warner with new challenges, the like of which he wouldn't find as Governor. I'd also point to the words of wisdom of a VA pol who said after you've essentially had a perfect career (MJ with the Bulls) why spoil it by coming back to the same line of work (MJ with the Wizards)? Yes, Mark Warner doens't have to worry about his knees blowing up, but he has everything to lose from going back to a job that everyone expects him to excel at.

[© tweed]

he also has things to lose by going to the Senate and possibly failing.  I really doubt he could do much wrong as Gov. of VA.  he understands how to do that.

and Jordan had already won 6 champsionships when he came back with the Wizards - Warner in still in search of his 'championship', the White House.

[MarkWarner08]

he also has things to lose by going to the Senate and possibly failing.  I really doubt he could do much wrong as Gov. of VA.  he understands how to do that.

and Jordan had already won 6 champsionships when he came back with the Wizards - Warner in still in search of his 'championship', the White House.

Good point on the championships thing.  What if President [insert Democrat] has a Clintonian  first year in office. How will Warner, the standard bearer of the Democratic flag do in that scenario? Remember in 1993, Virgina and New Jersey both voted for GOP Governors to replace the Democratic incumbents. New Jersey, in a particular, was a mandate on tax policy in New Jersey and Bill Clinton's national tax hike.

I think he's better off beating Tom Davis and running for POTUS in 2012 or 2016, than possibly losing in '09 or waiting for some unforeseen opportunity.

[© tweed]

Warner can't lose in 2009.  that's not your argument.  your argument is that the Senate would give Warner the experience and exposure needed for him to make a run for national office.  which I don't really agree or disagree with, I just think he's going to play it safe and if he isn't somebody's VP in 2008 (and he may have struck a backdoor deal with Hillary here - who knows) he's going to run for Governor again.

[MarkWarner08]

Warner can't lose in 2009.  that's not your argument.  your argument is that the Senate would give Warner the experience and exposure needed for him to make a run for national office.  which I don't really agree or disagree with, I just think he's going to play it safe and if he isn't somebody's VP in 2008 (and he may have struck a backdoor deal with Hillary here - who knows) he's going to run for Governor again.

Well, I wouldn't be so cock-sure that Warner "can't lose." Are you clairvoyant? Can you see what the political climate will be like in 2009. Remember how dejected Democrats were in early 2005 -- only a year or so before that took back the Congress for the first time in over a decade?

Political is a highly volatile field, one that is sucepsitbale to the subtlest shifts in the national mood.  A Bob McDonnell or even a George Allen could knock off Warner if the political climate shifts to the right. If the 2009 election were held today, Warner would win in a landslide. Alas, that won't happen and thus its too early to prognosticate about the next Gubernatorial election.

Re: VP. Why would Hillary select a one term gov as her running mate? Wouldn't she want someone with more experience? Someone like Wesley Clark or Bill Richardson?