will Mark Warner run for US Senate from VA in 2008?

[© tweed]

lol @ Allen beating Warner.  if we ran that election in a 1994esque climate, Warner still wins handily.  he has 80% approvals leaving office and no politican in Virginia can touch him.

and I simply suggested that a deal may have been made between Clinton and Warner such that Warner does not run for president in 2008 in exchange for being Clinton's running mate.

besides, Hillary doesn't need experience at the bottom of her ticket - she's been heavily involved in Washington for the past 15 years.

[Sam Spade]

lol @ Allen beating Warner.  if we ran that election in a 1994esque climate, Warner still wins handily.  he has 80% approvals leaving office and no politican in Virginia can touch him.

The rest of your commentary is good so far and quite reasonable (if not possible wrt 2008). 

This line, however, is pretty funny and deserves to be saved.  Strange things tend to happen when the national environment is against you.  Ask George Allen.

[Sam Spade]

lol @ Allen beating Warner.  if we ran that election in a 1994esque climate, Warner still wins handily.  he has 80% approvals leaving office and no politican in Virginia can touch him.

The rest of your commentary is good so far and quite reasonable (if not possible wrt 2008). 

This line, however, is pretty funny and deserves to be saved.  Strange things tend to happen when the national environment is against you.  Ask George Allen.

This reminds me:  Didn't George Allen have a 70% approval rating upon leaving office in 1997 and yet somehow only ended up with 52% against a scandal-ridden Dem incumbent in 2000?  Granted, Mark Warner appears to be a much stronger politician than George Allen, but still...

[© tweed]

you really think Warner would macaca himself?  of course not - despite the harsh climate, Allen would have won by a semisolid margin had he not been an idiot.  and, of course, he wasn't as popular as Warner is.  not terribly close either.

[opebo]

... I really doubt he could do much wrong as Gov. of VA.  he understands how to do that.

I think being a 'successful' or at least perceived as such governor has as much to do with the state economy as anything the person himself does.  For example, Ohio and Missouri are very rough on their governors, but Virginia or Florida are not.

[Conan]

Warner has no shot at becoming president unless he is selected as a VP candidate in 2008, assuming the democrats win. Unless the dem loses in 2012, then he has a shot at 2016.

[WalterMitty]

lol @ Allen beating Warner.  if we ran that election in a 1994esque climate, Warner still wins handily.  he has 80% approvals leaving office and no politican in Virginia can touch him.

The rest of your commentary is good so far and quite reasonable (if not possible wrt 2008). 

This line, however, is pretty funny and deserves to be saved.  Strange things tend to happen when the national environment is against you.  Ask George Allen.

This reminds me:  Didn't George Allen have a 70% approval rating upon leaving office in 1997 and yet somehow only ended up with 52% against a scandal-ridden Dem incumbent in 2000?  Granted, Mark Warner appears to be a much stronger politician than George Allen, but still...

robb was involved in a scandal?

the only thing i ever heard were rumors that he may have been present a party where some folks were using cocaine.  i heard he may have had sexual relations with a woman other than his wife.

i dont know if those things are a 'scandal'.  and by 2000 they were old news.

[Saxwsylvania]

The conventional wisdom a few months ago was that Mark Warner would run for Governor, not Senate.  Now, that seems to have reversed itself.  Everyone seems confident of a Warner Senate run.  Why this is, I have no idea.

Mark Warner should be leaning towards running again for governor in 2009.

Running for the Senate in 2008 would rule him out as a vice presidential candidate.

He could lie low in 2008 and wait to be picked as Hillary's running mate.  Even if he doesn't get picked, he can still run for Governor in 2009.  If a Republican wins the Presidency in '08, then Warner can run in 2012 as a successful two-term governor of Virginia.

Should Warner follow the latter route, the least favorable scenario for him would be a two-term Hillary Presidency with someone else as the incumbent Vice President running in 2016, but that doesn't mean he couldn't pose a challenge.

Of course, this is all based on the assumption that Warner really wants to be President.  But then again, he might not seeing as how he dropped out of the race to be more of a family man.

[Sam Spade]

you really think Warner would macaca himself?  of course not - despite the harsh climate, Allen would have won by a semisolid margin had he not been an idiot.  and, of course, he wasn't as popular as Warner is.  not terribly close either.

I never said Warner would macaca himself - I said that Warner was likely a better politician than Allen.  Anyways, without macaca, Allen would have won 51%-53% to Webb's 46%-48%.  Whether you view that as semi-solid or not is up to you.  Of course, Allen was not as popular when he ran as an incumbent as Warner would be if he ran in 2008, but incumbency adds an advantage that narrows that popularity difference a good bit.  Which is of course, what Allen was facing in Chuck Robb in 2000 and Warner would not have to face this time.  But Robb's scandals defeat that advantage somewhat (yes mitty, in the South adulterous affairs do not usually help your candidacy unless you're in Louisiana).

What I'm essentially implying is that when you run for Senate, your popularity starts getting eaten up by national partisanship factors in a reasonably closely divided state like Virginia that are especially alive in Presidential years and"wave" elections.  These factors only fail to affect highly popular "incumbent" Senators, and even sometimes it affects them.

[MarkWarner08]

lol @ Allen beating Warner.  if we ran that election in a 1994esque climate, Warner still wins handily.  he has 80% approvals leaving office and no politican in Virginia can touch him.

The rest of your commentary is good so far and quite reasonable (if not possible wrt 2008). 

This line, however, is pretty funny and deserves to be saved.  Strange things tend to happen when the national environment is against you.  Ask George Allen.

This reminds me:  Didn't George Allen have a 70% approval rating upon leaving office in 1997 and yet somehow only ended up with 52% against a scandal-ridden Dem incumbent in 2000?  Granted, Mark Warner appears to be a much stronger politician than George Allen, but still...

Exactly. Never underestimate the fickleness of the political winds and the competitivenesses of Virginia elections. I'm not in the crowd that blithely pronounces Warner the next Senator, if he runs. Tom Davis masterminded the NRCC's solid 2000 and 2002 performances and is, perhaps, the smartest GOP strategist holding elective office. Davis a dangerous foe who would dominate any Democrat not named Mark Warner. Don't forget that Davis has been preparing to run for the Senate for many years. This guy has already made crucial contacts in the south of the state. I'm not counting out Tom Davis.

[MarkWarner08]

Any thoughts on the ripple effect of John Warner's decision? VA-11 is now up fro grabs for the first time since 1994. I'm a little worried that despite this seat's PVI of D+2, the Democrats will have as much trouble finding a candidate here as the GOP has had in OH-15.  Are my fears unwarranted? Do the Democrats have a farm team here that consists of more players that just Leslie Byrne? I hope so.  I'm worried that the good candidates in NOVA (Brian Moran, Chapman Peterson) or either in the wrong district or want to run statewide next time.

[Nym90]

We can only hope.

[© tweed]

What I'm essentially implying is that when you run for Senate, your popularity starts getting eaten up by national partisanship factors in a reasonably closely divided state like Virginia that are especially alive in Presidential years and"wave" elections.  These factors only fail to affect highly popular "incumbent" Senators, and even sometimes it affects them.

I was talking about a prospective gubernatorial run in 2009, which won't be a presidential year or a midterm year or etc which makes a "wave" difficult - and Warner would no doubt survive one, although perhaps only receiving around the mid-50s% of the vote rather than low-mid60s%.

[Sam Spade]

What I'm essentially implying is that when you run for Senate, your popularity starts getting eaten up by national partisanship factors in a reasonably closely divided state like Virginia that are especially alive in Presidential years and"wave" elections.  These factors only fail to affect highly popular "incumbent" Senators, and even sometimes it affects them.

I was talking about a prospective gubernatorial run in 2009, which won't be a presidential year or a midterm year or etc which makes a "wave" difficult - and Warner would no doubt survive one, although perhaps only receiving around the mid-50s% of the vote rather than low-mid60s%.

That was "very" unclear.  Thanks for clarifying it.  Running for Governor is a totally different beast altogether, partisan voting is a good bit weaker in those situations.

Though even in that situation, he would perform much better if a Republican were in the WH, as opposed to a Democrat.

[Sam Spade]

lol @ Allen beating Warner.  if we ran that election in a 1994esque climate, Warner still wins handily.  he has 80% approvals leaving office and no politican in Virginia can touch him.

The rest of your commentary is good so far and quite reasonable (if not possible wrt 2008). 

This line, however, is pretty funny and deserves to be saved.  Strange things tend to happen when the national environment is against you.  Ask George Allen.

This reminds me:  Didn't George Allen have a 70% approval rating upon leaving office in 1997 and yet somehow only ended up with 52% against a scandal-ridden Dem incumbent in 2000?  Granted, Mark Warner appears to be a much stronger politician than George Allen, but still...

Exactly. Never underestimate the fickleness of the political winds and the competitivenesses of Virginia elections. I'm not in the crowd that blithely pronounces Warner the next Senator, if he runs. Tom Davis masterminded the NRCC's solid 2000 and 2002 performances and is, perhaps, the smartest GOP strategist holding elective office. Davis a dangerous foe who would dominate any Democrat not named Mark Warner. Don't forget that Davis has been preparing to run for the Senate for many years. This guy has already made crucial contacts in the south of the state. I'm not counting out Tom Davis.

Davis's problem is getting out of the primary.  And I am similarly not convinced Davis would "dominate" any Democrat in the general election.  That being said, in a general election, he would be favored in my mind over any Democrat not Warner or maybe Kaine. 

And I certainly agree with your assertions about Davis's intelligence and craftiness.  I have always been impressed with his political intelligence, not to mention actual intelligence.

As for VA-11, it starts off in toss-up, until we see who the candidates are.  No more, no less.

[Democratic Hawk]

Should Mark Warner run, would Tom Davis pass on it and challenge Webb in 2012? Warner was an immensely popular governor

I'm hoping a series of popular Democratic, dare I say it, "red" state governors or former governors declare Senate aspirations. It could force Republican retirements in the way Evan Bayh did Dan Coats. The impression I got being that Bayh was unbeatable

Dave

[MarkWarner08]

lol @ Allen beating Warner.  if we ran that election in a 1994esque climate, Warner still wins handily.  he has 80% approvals leaving office and no politican in Virginia can touch him.

The rest of your commentary is good so far and quite reasonable (if not possible wrt 2008). 

This line, however, is pretty funny and deserves to be saved.  Strange things tend to happen when the national environment is against you.  Ask George Allen.

This reminds me:  Didn't George Allen have a 70% approval rating upon leaving office in 1997 and yet somehow only ended up with 52% against a scandal-ridden Dem incumbent in 2000?  Granted, Mark Warner appears to be a much stronger politician than George Allen, but still...

Exactly. Never underestimate the fickleness of the political winds and the competitivenesses of Virginia elections. I'm not in the crowd that blithely pronounces Warner the next Senator, if he runs. Tom Davis masterminded the NRCC's solid 2000 and 2002 performances and is, perhaps, the smartest GOP strategist holding elective office. Davis a dangerous foe who would dominate any Democrat not named Mark Warner. Don't forget that Davis has been preparing to run for the Senate for many years. This guy has already made crucial contacts in the south of the state. I'm not counting out Tom Davis.

Davis's problem is getting out of the primary.  And I am similarly not convinced Davis would "dominate" any Democrat in the general election.  That being said, in a general election, he would be favored in my mind over any Democrat not Warner or maybe Kaine. 

And I certainly agree with your assertions about Davis's intelligence and craftiness.  I have always been impressed with his political intelligence, not to mention actual intelligence.

As for VA-11, it starts off in toss-up, until we see who the candidates are.  No more, no less.

I guess "dominate" is too hyperbolic, but who do Democrats have to run for the Senate? Don Beyer? He lost by a large margin in 1997 and hasn't held office since. Leslie Byrne? Virginia's version of Myrth York. Brian Moran? Most likely running for Gov. in '09.  Rick Boucher? Too old and too entrcneched in the House?  Creigh Deeds? Probably running for AG or LG in 2009. Phil Kellam? Oh, wait, he lost in 2006. Who's left?

While the demographic trends in VA may be favorable for Democrats, the Party of Andrew Jackson is facing a dearth of top-tier statewide candidates who want  to run for the Senate.

[MarkWarner08]

Should Mark Warner run, would Tom Davis pass on it and challenge Webb in 2012? Warner was an immensely popular governor

I'm hoping a series of popular Democratic, dare I say it, "red" state governors or former governors declare Senate aspirations. It could force Republican retirements in the way Evan Bayh did Dan Coats. The impression I got being that Bayh was unbeatable

Dave

That's an interesting thought. The main difference is see is that Davis has been prepping for this race for ages and Warner lacks the Bayh combo of very popular reign as Gov. + famous last name. While Warner is super-popular, I doubt he can dissuade Davis from running.

[sethm0]

 Just because no Senator has won the White House since 1960 does not mean it won't happen again. If it harder to run as a Senator than a Governor? Sure. But consider Warner's position: a Senate race would give him more job stability from now until 2016 (if he needs to wait that long) and give him much-needed foreign policy credentials. In his case I think the Senate makes sense.

[Conan]

Is Creigh pronounced Craig or Cray?

[Frodo]

Is Creigh pronounced Craig or Cray?

Cray as in crayfish.  Hope that helps.   

[Conan]

Is Creigh pronounced Craig or Cray?

Cray as in crayfish.  Hope that helps.   

It most def. does. I was always pronouncing it that way but I've never heard it on TV or anything. It also makes him 10X cooler.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just because no Senator has won the White House since 1960 does not mean it won't happen again.

Especially since it looks like the most likely scenario for 2008.

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday Mark Warner said this:

"I think I’ve got two great options, to either try and run for governor again or try and take Senator Warner's seat in the Senate,” Warner said.  “What I'm evaluating is where I can make the most difference and Lord knows Washington could use some fixing up."

"Well, I think it's fair to say I'd love to be a job applicant again, that I’d ask the people of Virginia to hire me, whether it's for Senator or Governor, that's the choice I've got to make.”

Warner says he'll announce his decision in the next week or so.

http://tinyurl.com/2eh87u

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Craig