Future superpowers

[Colin]

United States, India and China are going to be the three major powers. I don't really see America's role as an international power really changing in the next fifty years, it's a first world country with 300 million people it's always going to be relevant. Personally I don't think the EU will federate into any sort of national entity and will either basically remain in the same state that it is now or break up into a centralized union of a few core nations and a seperate trading union comprising many more nations. Even if it does form one entity it would have major problems with a population decrease, immigration, and slow growth rates to most likely worry about in the future, as well as a bloated bureaucratic structure. China is likely to be a world power if it is able to maintain continued economic growth and contain some of its problems, include a big population crunch when the one child policy finally shows its end result. However it could slip up easily and could lose it's current golden child position to another nation, most likely as a result of domestic political problems.

I think India has an excellent shot at the "primetime" of any nation in the world. It's democratic so it is able to take the shock of popular outrage and respond to changing political attitudes better than a centralized despotic government like China while also avoiding the population bust that China will be undergoing in the next half-century. As long as it can spread the benefits of economic growth to all social classes and keep inequality to a minimum India could come out of the dangerous transition from third world to developing world rather easily. Russia though will continue to be a nut house of a nation. The only reason it's not in its current 90's woes is because of the high price for oil and natural gas, take that away and the Russian bear becomes a feeble cub. I'm not saying that Russia wont be an important nation, it will still be a great power with about as much clout as it had during the 19th century and pre-WWI Europe, but it wont be able to attain the level of superpower again, at least not under its current economy or leadership.

As for Brazil it is high unlikely that they will achieve superpower status. That have the potential but, in all seriousness, they've had the potential for a century and a half and have failed to utilize it. Income inequality, dependence on the resource market, and a corrupt and unstable democratic system are all major problems to the Brazilian would-be power. Unlike India, which has a rather corrupt and slightly rickety government but has been able to maintained stability and not strayed into the path of military rule and coup d'etat, Brazil has a history of military rule and unpredictable government. While I believe the days of military juntas in Brazil are over I still believe that economic populism will trump economic liberalization and courting of foreign investment in the long run.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Cute but you ignore the serious internal issues in all 3 potential superpowers. America is already silently imploding(blame reaganites/club for growth types/LBJ/Dubya), China could easily implode if its overheating economy crashes/environmental problems get worse and India is in a bad geopolitical neighborhood(borders Pakistan) plus has ALOT of ethnic tension/inequality(even worse its not just between social class/caste but between regions).

[Platypus]

US, China if things go well, India if things go really well, EU if things go amazingly well.

[opebo]

...China (hopefully a multi-party parliamentary democracy by then....)... 

While I'm not sure about which will be superpowers, I'm pretty damned sure China will never be a 'multi-party parliamentary democracy'.

I would say it will be

1) US - already a superpower, yes waning but not really going away
2) EU - already a superpower, just doesn't act on its capability; any time they choose, they can.
-------big gap--------
3) India - will surprise you
4) China - overrated, but will be a superpower.. just not eclipsing any of the other three.

Russia, no, but close, and Brazil no, definitely not.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

USA followed closely by Sealand

[Stranger in a strange land]

Hey guys I was in India over the summer and I can tell you that they're not becoming a superpower any time soon. The standard of living is on par with sub-saharan africa in most places, there's still an unbelievable amount of bureaucratic red tape, things are disorganized, infrastructrure is run-down and shoddy, and the power goes out at least 3-4 times a day. And this is DELHI, not some minor town in the middle of nowhere. India is improving however, and in the future it will have much more say in international affairs than it does currently, but it won't be a superpower on par with the US or China; not in our lifetimes at least.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

India is democratic which china isn't.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

In 50 years?!  Zion will probably be the only superpower by then.

[opebo]

In 50 years?!  Zion will probably be the only superpower by then.

Haha, good one!  You mean that stupid hole in the ground in that awful movie.. what was it called?  The one with Keanu Reaves, etc.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

China, U.S., EU.

NOT Russia - they'll fail and just fall into darkness - they're crashing economically.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

The EU has zero chance of being a superpower. In 50 years europe will have MANY millions less as euros flee for the anglosphere dominions, southern cone latin america(Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay) and the United States to get away from the islamic onslaught.

[NDN]

China, U.S., EU.

NOT Russia - they'll fail and just fall into darkness - they're crashing economically.

No they're not, the Russian economy is experiencing massive growth.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

China, U.S., EU.

NOT Russia - they'll fail and just fall into darkness - they're crashing economically.

No they're not, the Russian economy is experiencing massive growth.

Growth in natural resource prices that is.  When the next global recession comes, Russia will be hurting badly economically and no one will be feeling sorry for them because of what they've been doing while they've been feeling cocky.

[Colin]

China, U.S., EU.

NOT Russia - they'll fail and just fall into darkness - they're crashing economically.

No they're not, the Russian economy is experiencing massive growth.

Growth in natural resource prices that is.  When the next global recession comes, Russia will be hurting badly economically and no one will be feeling sorry for them because of what they've been doing while they've been feeling cocky.

Of course that's the history of Russia in a nutshell though. They get some sort of power, economic, military, political, technological, use that to project their power and act cocky on the world stage, said power runs out and shows itself to be very fleeting, Russia retreats into a hole of reorganization, isolation, and less significance until they acquire the a new source of power.