Future superpowers

[Middle-aged Europe]

Since there were only two of them in recent times, we will roughly define "superpower" as a country which holds about as much political power and influence in the world as the United States nowadays or the United States/Soviet Union at some point during the Cold War.

[Frodo]

The United States, China (hopefully a multi-party parliamentary democracy by then....), and India. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada

I can only dream

[Gabu]

Canada

I can only dream

I don't dream for that; I like being irrelevant because then nobody's trying to kill you.

[Jaggerjack]

China and the USA

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

China, the U.S., and possibly an Islamic Caliphate.

[2952-0-0]

Hopefully none. We would have a multipolar world where no one could dictate anything singlehandedly, and the state itself would no longer be so prestigious.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

China, US and India as the big 3. China with military power, India with total economic size and the US with tech/standard of living.

[phk]

US, China and it depends on which way the EU goes.

[Padfoot]

I think it's very possible that Brazil could arise as a super power.  It is the fifth most populous country in the world and they seem to have a stable democracy going on.   Brazil also has an abundance of natural resources given its large land area and the fact that much of that area is covered in rainforest.  Brazil also has a lot of influence in Latin America so it is possible that they could build a strong coalition in any international negotiating.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada

I can only dream

I don't dream for that; I like being irrelevant because then nobody's trying to kill you.

Yeah, but nobody hates Canada (except some Americans)

[KEmperor]

Hmm.  I'd like invulnerability and omnipotence.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think it's very possible that Brazil could arise as a super power.  It is the fifth most populous country in the world and they seem to have a stable democracy going on.   Brazil also has an abundance of natural resources given its large land area and the fact that much of that area is covered in rainforest.  Brazil also has a lot of influence in Latin America so it is possible that they could build a strong coalition in any international negotiating.

To quote something I heard once, but can't remember the source of:  "Brazil has the potential to be a major power, and it always will."

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

I think it's very possible that Brazil could arise as a super power.  It is the fifth most populous country in the world and they seem to have a stable democracy going on.   Brazil also has an abundance of natural resources given its large land area and the fact that much of that area is covered in rainforest.  Brazil also has a lot of influence in Latin America so it is possible that they could build a strong coalition in any international negotiating.

To quote something I heard once, but can't remember the source of:  "Brazil has the potential to be a major power, and it always will."

I'm pretty sure the quote was more like "Brazil is the country of the future and it always will be"

[NDN]

China is overrated, it has a ton of problems such as impending demographic crunch (too little females), ecological ruin, etc. Russia, India and Brazil I think are all rapidly on their way to achieving super power status. Of course, that could change if the US doesn't get it's debt under control and undergoes an economic meltdown once foreign nations finally stop propping up the dollar. If that happens, I'd be surprised if there were any super powers around in 50 years.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Russia and Brazil seem unlikely to become full blown superpowers. Too small of population.

[NDN]

I think it's very possible that Brazil could arise as a super power.  It is the fifth most populous country in the world and they seem to have a stable democracy going on.   Brazil also has an abundance of natural resources given its large land area and the fact that much of that area is covered in rainforest.  Brazil also has a lot of influence in Latin America so it is possible that they could build a strong coalition in any international negotiating.

Agreed. In fact, I think it's already starting to assume the role of a major world power right now. True there are problems such as de-forestation and massive poverty, but those are being slowly addressed as people realize the current situation is neither sustainable nor desirable for investment. Presuming a more or less stable economic climate, I could see them achieving super power status in as little as 25 years.

[NDN]

Russia and Brazil seem unlikely to become full blown superpowers. Too small of population.

Brazil doesn't have a small population. I see your point with Russia though, especially since they have an AIDs problem. But there are a lot of other factors to consider. Russia has tremendous resources like Oil that it can and is using to bring the rest of Europe to it's knees. It also has areas that are becoming more open to population due to climate change, has undergone rapid economic development under Putin, and is re-modernizing it's military. As for Brazil, well Padfoot and myself already covered why that country could become a major power fast if it plays it's cards right.

[Jake]

Russia is on its way to achieving superpower status?
 
You are aware of their population and HIV/AIDS crisis, right? Conservative estimates place Russia's population at 100 million by 2050. That's not factoring in HIV/AIDS. Add in others - corruption, alcoholism, fascist government...

The United States is the most likely superpower, simply because we're already here. India has to overcome the wealth gap, China has its own problems (HIV/AIDS, population, environment).

The EU is the most likely power to jump up to superpower status. Their population problem is being solved by immigrants, they already are a giant in diplomacy, and they're a massive economic force, even more so when you consider the Euro's potential.

[NDN]

Russia is on its way to achieving superpower status?
 
You are aware of their population and HIV/AIDS crisis, right? Conservative estimates place Russia's population at 100 million by 2050. That's not factoring in HIV/AIDS. Add in others - corruption, alcoholism, fascist government...

I already mentioned their AIDs problem. But lack of democracy /=/ poor. Quite the opposite, under Putin they've gone from being in the toilet economically to being one of the fastest growing economies in the world. And their military is becoming formidable again, after about a decade of rotting.

The United States is the most likely superpower, simply because we're already here. India has to overcome the wealth gap, China has its own problems (HIV/AIDS, population, environment).

Obviously by default, although as I mentioned I could see us falling. India I could see becoming a power before China, because it's growth has been more sustained, they've invested more in services, etc. But I think both China and India are severely overrated.

The EU is the most likely power to jump up to superpower status. Their population problem is being solved by immigrants, they already are a giant in diplomacy, and they're a massive economic force, even more so when you consider the Euro's potential.

The EU can't be a super power, because it's not a single federal state yet. And I doubt it will be soon, if ever contrary to what so many of the right claims. Nationalism and anti-globalism are still very much alive in European politics.

[Jake]

Superpowers don't need to be federal states. Where did you get that idea?

The European Union already has a common economy, integrated as much as any other federal state on the planet. They already have (basically) a common currency. They already have the Rapid Reaction Force and EU Battlegroups and it seems almost certain that a combined force under full EU control is coming soon. The EU has a seat at the G8 Summit and has its own foreign affairs commissioner.

And regardless of what Nationalists want, the Euro isn't going away, the trade pact isn't going away, and the military cooperation (which has been there since the 50s with NATO anyway) is not going away. And it's hard to see the EU not having a say in international matter, what with their economic power and traditional diplomatic power.

I already mentioned their AIDs problem. But lack of democracy /=/ poor. Quite the opposite, under Putin they've gone from being in the toilet economically to being one of the fastest growing economies in the world. And their military is becoming formidable again, after about a decade of rotting.

And poor doesn't equal not being a superpower. Russia's only trump card is oil/gas. They have a population that is falling sharply (and not just falling, but actually plummeting). We're talking about a loss of 36 million people in 50 years (147 million to 111 million).

This article lays out the facts. The median age thingy rising from 38 now to 50 in 2050 is probably the most damning statistic.

This website has median ages by country now. The highest is Japan at 42.

None of this factors in HIV/AIDS.

This article lays out the problems HIV/AIDS can dump on Russia (and India and China).

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

We're slowly decaying, we're losing civil liberties, education is sucking(causing us to lose our tech/cultural lead) and the economy is being more and more corrupt. A good analogy for the US's international role as it is now is the soviet union in the late 60s. The #1 power but will be an ex-superpower in 20-30 years(That said, we both have a quiet sense of national unity which lets us work to do big goals like the manhatten project or getting people on the moon AND a homogenous population(homogenous in terms of norms believed in if not the outer trappings of cultures) so a US return to superpower status decades after a collapse isn't unlikely(It wouldn't much resemble our US. Our current governmental institutions are why we're in our current hole)).

Look at http://www.jmooneyham.com/decline-america.html

[jokerman]

China, the U.S., and possibly an Islamic Caliphate.

Aye, though I'm inclined to add the EU.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

You think America is screwed the EU's entitlements problems make our SS problem seem minor, they're becoming Eurabia, their mainstream culture is even more luddite/"bioethics" obsessed than other western nations, political correctness represses non-mainstream opinions so political violence is staring, their economies grow slower than the US/east asia, even with mass islamic immigration their populations in most states are stagnant with some declining(the decline is what worries me. Stable population is good but the euros are first getting stability then quickly going to decline) and they have alot of economic ties to the decaying US. The 21st century for Europe will probably resemble Argentina's fate. Europe in 2007 was prosperous and one of the world leaders in many stats while Europe in 2107 in my opinion is a place which probably lags the developed nations.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

However, rants comparing America and Europe aside the euros are significantly more prepared for the post-fossil fuel world than us(even if they have worse economic/population/immigration issues than us it balances out since we're SO car dependant and phobic of nuke power it's not funny) so both places are roughly equal in how badly they're screwed. The french get 70% of their power from nuclear power and European nations are ALOT less car dependant than we are.