Senate composition

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I decided to create a map to show the breakdown of each state for now and following the elections in 2008.  For visual clarity I count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats
Key:
Red: 2 Democrat
Blue: 2 Republican
Green: 1 each
2007-2009:
Democrats: 51
Republican: 49

2009-2011:
Democrats: 55
Republican: 45

[nclib]

Good work, though shouldn't Nebraska be green in both maps (or arguably red in the second map if Hagel retires and Kerrey runs)?

[MarkWarner08]

I decided to create a map to show the breakdown of each state for now and following the elections in 2008.  For visual clarity I count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats
Key:
Red: 2 Democrat
Blue: 2 Republican
Green: 1 each
2007-2009:
Democrats: 51
Republican: 49

2009-2011:
Democrats: 55
Republican: 45

Nice work, but save  it for Nov. 5th, 2008. Landreiu may lose, Coleman could hang on, Shaheen, Kerrey, and Warner may not run, Collins could successfully brand Allen as too liberal, Johnson could make a stumble on the campaign trail, etc. Way too many variables to consider to make a judgment this early on.

[Democratic Hawk]

Nice work, but save  it for Nov. 5th, 2008. Landreiu may lose, Coleman could hang on, Shaheen, Kerrey, and Warner may not run, Collins could successfully brand Allen as too liberal, Johnson could make a stumble on the campaign trail, etc. Way too many variables to consider to make a judgment this early on.

Benconstine has Collins holding Maine over Allen. Out of interest was Rep. Mike Michaud (ME-02) not interested in seeking the Senate seat. He seems more moderate and in 2006, he won his district (seemingly the less Democratic of the two) with 70.49% to Allen's 60.67%.

I can understand him not given that Collins is far from being a slam-dunk for defeat. Not to mention ME-02 marginally more at risk to the GOP as an open-seat than ME-01. It's hard to conceive 2008 being a good year for the Republicans in New England of course

But beyond Iraq, what puts Collins at particular risk?

Dave

[Lief 🗽]

Nice work, but save  it for Nov. 5th, 2008. Landreiu may lose, Coleman could hang on, Shaheen, Kerrey, and Warner may not run, Collins could successfully brand Allen as too liberal, Johnson could make a stumble on the campaign trail, etc. Way too many variables to consider to make a judgment this early on.

Benconstine has Collins holding Maine over Allen. Out of interest was Rep. Mike Michaud (ME-02) not interested in seeking the Senate seat. He seems more moderate and in 2006, he won his district (seemingly the less Democratic of the two) with 70.49% to Allen's 60.67%.

I can understand him not given that Collins is far from being a slam-dunk for defeat. Not to mention ME-02 marginally more at risk to the GOP as an open-seat than ME-01. It's hard to conceive 2008 being a good year for the Republicans in New England of course

But beyond Iraq, what puts Collins at particular risk?

Dave

Iraq was more than enough to get rid of Chaffee. Iraq alone nearly defeated Lieberman.

[Democratic Hawk]

Iraq was more than enough to get rid of Chaffee.

Having an [R] next to his name defeated Chafee

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I was pleased Lieberman was re-elected. My Forum name Democratic 'Hawk' pretty much defines what I'd be.

He's fallen from grace since however re his refusal to hold an enquiry into the White House response to Hurricane Katrina. If he endorses a Republican for President in 2008, that will be me finished with Lieberman. FINISHED!

Dave

[Stranger in a strange land]

Nice work, but save  it for Nov. 5th, 2008. Landreiu may lose, Coleman could hang on, Shaheen, Kerrey, and Warner may not run, Collins could successfully brand Allen as too liberal, Johnson could make a stumble on the campaign trail, etc. Way too many variables to consider to make a judgment this early on.

*Landreiu may well lose if the GOP finds a candidate, which so far they haven't
*Sununu is so out of touch with his state that he's vulnerable even to a 2nd tier challenger
*If Tim Kaine runs for the senate in Virginia he has a good chance of winning. Not as good as Warner, but still very good; I'd say better than 60%

Of course your basic point about it being way too early is correct. Actually I have some doubts as to whether or not Bob Kerrey will run and if he does if he could win. I think Coleman and Smith both have a fairly good chance of getting reelected, but will both havve tough fights ahead to keep their seats.

[Dan the Roman]

Michiud actually would have been a vastly better candidate in Maine except for one problem; He is pro-life. That would have hurt him in a primary, and especially against Collins, it would have weakened his ability to expand his support into the Portland area.

That said, Michiud has a much better biography than Allen. He worked for 22 years in a Mill, and also grew up poor. Allen comes from a rich family, bought his way to mayor of Portland, and then was elected to the house the same day Collins was elected to the Senate. His base is Portland and the areas around it which would be useful except for the fact that I think they will go Democratic anyway due to the Iraq War. On the other hand, coming from Portland gives him negative appeal everywhere else in the state, and having been up there for the last few weeks, I can honestly say that Geography is playing almost as big a factor as Iraq.

You see, Maine without Cumberland country is the poorest state in the country, and there is a lot of feeling that for that very reason there is a well grounded fear that politicians from Cumberland county have more in common with Massachusetts than with the rest of Maine, and that therefore a Cumberland county politician will favor national liberal causes like Iraq over say inviting factories to open in Bangor. Its not that Mainers are Conservative; they aren't. Its just they distrust rich-person liberalism, which is why no candidate from the first district has won statewide in 30+years.

Allen is playing into this by running an Iraq/George Bush campaign, which reinforces the view that he is the candidate of the Portland elite.

On the contrary Michiud would be able to run a populist anti-outsourcing campaign focused on how say George Bush has been bad for the Maine economy. He could have announced his campaign in front of an abandoned Mill in Presque Isle, rather than Allen announcing on a boat.

Sorry for the tangent, but anyway in summary, I think Michiud would have made the race interesting in the sense that he would have cut into Collins' rural and northern base. Against Allen, this race will come down to whether he can squeeze enough votes out of the Portland and the vacation communities, to overcome the avalanche he will be hit with everywhere else. My bet is on no, especially with the sh**tty campaign he is running, but who knows, people are very upset at George Bush.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Iraq was more than enough to get rid of Chaffee. Iraq alone nearly defeated Lieberman.

Okay, can we try to put this to bed right now?

Yes, Iraq and discontent with Republicans sent Chafee into early retirement.  But there are two VERY important differences between Chafee and Collins.


November 2006 Approval Ratings (SurveyUSA):

	Approve	Disapprove	Net Approve
Linc Chafee	51%	44%	+7%
Susan Collins	73%	23%	+50%

Bush v. Kerry, 2004 Results

	Bush (R)	Kerry (D)	Kerry Victory Margin
Rhode Island	38.7%	59.4%	D +20.7%
Maine	44.6%	53.6%	D +9%

Whitehouse won by 7%, but Rhode Island is a net 12 points more Democratic than Maine.  And once you take into account the fact that Collins' approval ratings are a net 43 points higher than Chafee's when he lost, it should be clear that Allen needs a hell of a lot more than just Iraq to win this thing.

[AndrewTX]

Yup, Collins is enjoying approvals that Chafee never acheieved, or atleast for long periods of time.