The Hill: Tsongas and Ogonowski win in Mass. special primary

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake
September 04, 2007

Democrat Niki Tsongas and Republican Jim Ogonowski won their respective primaries Tuesday in the special election to replace Rep. Marty Meehan (D-Mass.) and will meet head-to-head on Oct. 16 for the right to replace him.
 
Ogonowski, a retired lieutenant colonel in the Air Force, ran the GOP primary going away. He defeated Thomas Tierney, a perennial candidate for the seat.
 
Tsongas held off a late charge in the race from Lowell City Councilor Eileen Donoghue, beating her 36-32 with 98 percent of precincts reporting, according to the Associated Press, which declared Tsongas the winner. State Reps James Eldridge, Barry Finegold and James Miceli had 14, 13 and 6 percent, respectively.
 
Tsongas is the widow of former Sen. Paul Tsongas (D-Mass.). She was making her first bid for public office in the House district he once represented.
 
Ogonowski is the brother of one of the pilots who perished in the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
 
“Tonight is just a small victory on our way to October,” Ogonowski said. “My opponent will be well funded, but we will have the best organization. I know this because of all the work [my supporters] have done so far. We are going to win on Oct. 16, and we are going to do it the old fashion way – knocking on doors and meeting voters.”

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/tsongas-and-ogonowski-win-in-massachusetts-special-primary-2007-09-04.html

[Tender Branson]

My Prediction:

Tsongas: 65%
Ogonowski: 30%
Others: 5%

[WalterMitty]

two horrible candidates.

[TheresNoMoney]

Tsongas wins easily. Very Democratic district and just across the state line from where I grew up.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Tsongas wins easily. Very Democratic district and just across the state line from where I grew up.

It is one of the least Democratic districts in Massachusetts.  Not that it amounts to the district being a Republican bastion of anything, of course.

[TheresNoMoney]

It is one of the least Democratic districts in Massachusetts.  Not that it amounts to the district being a Republican bastion of anything, of course.

For nationwide standards, it's very Democratic. I was in Salisbury/Seabrook, NH this past weekend and saw signs everywhere for Donoghue and Tsongas.

[Sam Spade]

I was surprised that this one was as close as it was, but that's something to expect out of no turnout elections.

Mr. Moderate is right - this district has had a habit of voting for Republicans for governor when Republicans have won the Governor's race in the past, which I guess qualifies it for being one of the most Republican districts in one of the least Republican states.

[AndrewTX]

Who wins this race? Certainly not the people of that district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Who wins this race? Certainly not the people of that district.

If Tsongas votes anything like her husband did, I'd be thrilled.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

It is one of the least Democratic districts in Massachusetts.  Not that it amounts to the district being a Republican bastion of anything, of course.

For nationwide standards, it's very Democratic. I was in Salisbury/Seabrook, NH this past weekend and saw signs everywhere for Donoghue and Tsongas.

Won't folks in New Hampshire be sorry to hear that their votes don't count?

[TheresNoMoney]

Won't folks in New Hampshire be sorry to hear that their votes don't count?

It was right on the state line where I saw the signs. I didn't realize that area was Tsongas's old district.

[WalterMitty]

too bad paul celluci didnt run.  he would have had the best shot of any republican.

maybe one day we can get a decent republican to take on hugo chavez's buddy in ma-10

[they don't love you like i love you]

maybe one day we can get a decent republican to take on hugo chavez's buddy in ma-10

Will not happen.

And amusing since you support a Hugo Chavez supporter for President.

[Dan the Roman]

Hmm, people have a skewed opinion of MA voters from recent results. This district is actually the second most Republican in the state though that is not saying much. Furthermore Republicans have had a decent record in Special elections in the state they actually contest. Tsongas will win, but it won't be by 30 points.

Tsongas 57
Ognowski 42

[CPT MikeyMike]

too bad paul celluci didnt run.  he would have had the best shot of any republican.

maybe one day we can get a decent republican to take on hugo chavez's buddy in ma-10

Forget MA-10. We need to get rid of the scumbag in MA-03 and MA-04 NOW!

As for Cellucci, he blew his chances after screwing up the Big Dig. I've met the guy and he comes across as a shady SOB. The only decent MA governers we've had in the last 30 years were Bill Weld and Ed King.

[WalterMitty]

too bad paul celluci didnt run.  he would have had the best shot of any republican.

maybe one day we can get a decent republican to take on hugo chavez's buddy in ma-10

Forget MA-10. We need to get rid of the scumbag in MA-03 and MA-04 NOW!

As for Cellucci, he blew his chances after screwing up the Big Dig. I've met the guy and he comes across as a shady SOB. The only decent MA governers we've had in the last 30 years were Bill Weld and Ed King.

you dont think weld comes across as ashady sob?

[CPT MikeyMike]

too bad paul celluci didnt run.  he would have had the best shot of any republican.

maybe one day we can get a decent republican to take on hugo chavez's buddy in ma-10

Forget MA-10. We need to get rid of the scumbag in MA-03 and MA-04 NOW!

As for Cellucci, he blew his chances after screwing up the Big Dig. I've met the guy and he comes across as a shady SOB. The only decent MA governers we've had in the last 30 years were Bill Weld and Ed King.

you dont think weld comes across as ashady sob?

He was at times however, Weld got stuff done as governor unlike Cellucci.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction -

MA-6
59% (D) Tsongas
38% (R) Ogonowski

John Kerry carried this district 57%-41% in 2004, and I can't see how Ogonowski will do any better than George W. Bush - he doesn't actually seem like a bad Republican candidate, however, given the political weather at the moment and the fact that he is running in Massachusetts make it impossible for him to compete. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My prediction -

MA-6
59% (D) Tsongas
38% (R) Ogonowski

John Kerry carried this district 57%-41% in 2004, and I can't see how Ogonowski will do any better than George W. Bush - he doesn't actually seem like a bad Republican candidate, however, given the political weather at the moment and the fact that he is running in Massachusetts make it impossible for him to compete. 

The Republican Party in Massachusetts isn't likely to be giving Ogonowski any support, because I have seen little evidence that the Republican Party in Massachusetts exists in any shape and form that is capable of helping candidates.

[WalterMitty]

i think this fellow can crack 40%

something like 58-41-1

[they don't love you like i love you]

My prediction -

MA-6
59% (D) Tsongas
38% (R) Ogonowski

John Kerry carried this district 57%-41% in 2004, and I can't see how Ogonowski will do any better than George W. Bush - he doesn't actually seem like a bad Republican candidate, however, given the political weather at the moment and the fact that he is running in Massachusetts make it impossible for him to compete. 

The Republican Party in Massachusetts isn't likely to be giving Ogonowski any support, because I have seen little evidence that the Republican Party in Massachusetts exists in any shape and form that is capable of helping candidates.

What areas are the few Republicans in the state legislature from?

[CPT MikeyMike]

My prediction -

MA-6
59% (D) Tsongas
38% (R) Ogonowski

John Kerry carried this district 57%-41% in 2004, and I can't see how Ogonowski will do any better than George W. Bush - he doesn't actually seem like a bad Republican candidate, however, given the political weather at the moment and the fact that he is running in Massachusetts make it impossible for him to compete. 

The Republican Party in Massachusetts isn't likely to be giving Ogonowski any support, because I have seen little evidence that the Republican Party in Massachusetts exists in any shape and form that is capable of helping candidates.

What areas are the few Republicans in the state legislature from?

I believe it's the south shore.

Check or Hold Walter/Mr. Moderate?

[Verily]

My prediction -

MA-6
59% (D) Tsongas
38% (R) Ogonowski

John Kerry carried this district 57%-41% in 2004, and I can't see how Ogonowski will do any better than George W. Bush - he doesn't actually seem like a bad Republican candidate, however, given the political weather at the moment and the fact that he is running in Massachusetts make it impossible for him to compete. 

The Republican Party in Massachusetts isn't likely to be giving Ogonowski any support, because I have seen little evidence that the Republican Party in Massachusetts exists in any shape and form that is capable of helping candidates.

What areas are the few Republicans in the state legislature from?

I believe it's the south shore.

Check or Hold Walter/Mr. Moderate?

Of the five Republican State Senators, one is from the west, somewhat to the south, two are from north of Boston, one is from southwest of Boston near the border with Rhode Island and one is from south of Boston.

Westfield
Gloucester
Wakefield
Wrentham
Weymouth

In that order, to be precise.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

My prediction -

MA-6
59% (D) Tsongas
38% (R) Ogonowski

John Kerry carried this district 57%-41% in 2004, and I can't see how Ogonowski will do any better than George W. Bush - he doesn't actually seem like a bad Republican candidate, however, given the political weather at the moment and the fact that he is running in Massachusetts make it impossible for him to compete. 

The Republican Party in Massachusetts isn't likely to be giving Ogonowski any support, because I have seen little evidence that the Republican Party in Massachusetts exists in any shape and form that is capable of helping candidates.

What areas are the few Republicans in the state legislature from?

I believe it's the south shore.

Check or Hold Walter/Mr. Moderate?

There are a small spattering everywhere, mostly in the suburbs/exurbs around Springfield, Worcester, and Boston.  By percentage, the GOP holds the most seats in Plymouth/Hampden Counties (at 25%); they narrowly lost a pair of open (Dem held) seats in Plymouth in 2006 that they would have picked up in a less unfavorable environment.  Four years ago, the GOP held the most seats in Cape Cod, at 50% (they're now down to 17%—one in six—after dropping two consecutive open seat races there.)  Here's a list by county.

STATE HOUSE (19 of 160)
Barnstable (Cape Cod): 1 of 6
Berkshire (West): 0 of 4
Bristol (South): 3 of 14
Essex (North Shore): 1 of 18
Hampden (Springfield): 3 of 12
Middlesex ("Metrowest"): 3 of 37
Norfolk (South): 1 of 15
Plymouth (South Shore): 3 of 12
Suffolk (Boston): 0 of 19
Worcester: 4 of 18

Only the smallest handful of those seats are "safe" in open seat situations.  Almost all are safe so long as the incumbent seeks re-election—incumbents seldom lose in Massachusetts, Republican or Democrat.  Virtually all GOP losses of the last decade have been through losing open seats.  [Complicating matters for the GOP is the fact that the average GOP State Rep retires after only a handful of years; the average Democrat stays in office for a much longer period of time.]  The last Republican pickup was in 2002 on Cape Cod—Jeff Perry, now the lone Republican State Rep., beat an incumbent following redistricting.

In 2006, the GOP lost a seat in Metrowest (Sue Pope, first Republican to lose re-election since 1992), and lost an open seat in Barnstable (a former very gay and unstable roommate of mine lost an open seat race to a lesbian in a district including Provincetown).

STATE SENATE (5 of 40)
North Shore: 2 (Tarr, Tisei)
Springfield: 1 (Mike Knapik)
Metrowest: 1 (Scott Brown)
South Shore: 1 (Rob Hedlund)

The GOP lost two open Senate seats in the past four years: one in Metrowest, and one in the Springfield area.  None of the five would be safe in open seat situations; indeed, Democrats already hold the most Republican State Senate district in the state (won with >20% in an open seat).  Republicans did, however, pick up the Brown seat in a 2004 Special.

EDIT: Fixed some percentages.

[Mr.Phips]

Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.