The Hill: Tsongas and Ogonowski win in Mass. special primary

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.

[Mr.Phips]

Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.

What part is ridiculous?

[Verily]

Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.

What part is ridiculous?

The whole thing. The Massachusetts Republican Party doesn't have the resources to run an overt campaign, let alone an under-the-radar campaign, which actually requires a lot more effort (though less money). The NRCC has completely written the seat off: all they could do would be to run ads or give Ogonowski money, and they're doing neither.

Ogonowski will knock on some doors in his hometown while Tsongas travels across the district shaking hands with everyone, and she'll win in a landslide. That's the way elections work in one-party states.

The best Ogonowski can hope for is to hold Tsongas under 60%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.

What part is ridiculous?

The part where Tsongas doesn't win comfortably.  It's not a seat the GOP can win, and even if they were able to win it, it's not a seat the GOP can hold.  Why bother?

[Mr.Phips]

Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.

What part is ridiculous?

The part where Tsongas doesn't win comfortably.  It's not a seat the GOP can win, and even if they were able to win it, it's not a seat the GOP can hold.  Why bother?

I agree with you that they almost certainly would lose the seat in 2008, but the Republicans are doing everything in their power to embarass Democrats in the short term.  Winning this seat would do it easily.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.

What part is ridiculous?

The part where Tsongas doesn't win comfortably.  It's not a seat the GOP can win, and even if they were able to win it, it's not a seat the GOP can hold.  Why bother?

I agree with you that they almost certainly would lose the seat in 2008, but the Republicans are doing everything in their power to embarass Democrats in the short term.  Winning this seat would do it easily.

I suppose we can agree that winning this seat would prove embarassing for Democrats, but the last time Republicans had a shot at winning a MA Special Election for Congress was in 2001, and they actually had a good candidate: State Senator Jo Ann Sprague.

She lost by, like, 30 or whatever.  It's Massachusetts.  There's just no real Republican infrastructure to make even an upset like this one theoretically possible.

[Mr.Phips]

Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.

What part is ridiculous?

The part where Tsongas doesn't win comfortably.  It's not a seat the GOP can win, and even if they were able to win it, it's not a seat the GOP can hold.  Why bother?

I agree with you that they almost certainly would lose the seat in 2008, but the Republicans are doing everything in their power to embarass Democrats in the short term.  Winning this seat would do it easily.

I suppose we can agree that winning this seat would prove embarassing for Democrats, but the last time Republicans had a shot at winning a MA Special Election for Congress was in 2001, and they actually had a good candidate: State Senator Jo Ann Sprague.

She lost by, like, 30 or whatever.  It's Massachusetts.  There's just no real Republican infrastructure to make even an upset like this one theoretically possible.

I don't know if this means anything, but the Republican candidate has more than twice as many facebook freinds as the Democrat does.

[HardRCafé]

I know if it means anything!

[they don't love you like i love you]

Im going to say this right now.  I think this race is going to be a lot closer than people expect.  Democrats are overconfident in victory here and it looks as if the NRCC is running an under the radar campaign to take this seat.  I can say one thing, if Democrats lose this district or come even close to doing so, its over for them.  They will get a beating in 2008 bigger than they got back in 1980 with Jimmy Carter.

That's ridiculous times ten.

What part is ridiculous?

The part where Tsongas doesn't win comfortably.  It's not a seat the GOP can win, and even if they were able to win it, it's not a seat the GOP can hold.  Why bother?

I agree with you that they almost certainly would lose the seat in 2008, but the Republicans are doing everything in their power to embarass Democrats in the short term.  Winning this seat would do it easily.

I suppose we can agree that winning this seat would prove embarassing for Democrats, but the last time Republicans had a shot at winning a MA Special Election for Congress was in 2001, and they actually had a good candidate: State Senator Jo Ann Sprague.

She lost by, like, 30 or whatever.  It's Massachusetts.  There's just no real Republican infrastructure to make even an upset like this one theoretically possible.

I don't know if this means anything, but the Republican candidate has more than twice as many facebook freinds as the Democrat does.

By that sort of standard than Ron Paul is the hands down favorite to win the GOP nomination.

[WalterMitty]

im just glad fred smerlas didnt run for this seat.

the mass gop is already a big joke, we dont need him bringing it down even more.

ive had enough of him and his remarks about 'devil' patrick.   

[Mr.Phips]

Rumor has it is that there is a WBZ poll that shows Tsongas up 22.  Thats an awful lot of ground for  Ogonowski to make up in just a month. 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I just saw an Ogonowski bumper sticker today.

I was absolutely stunned that his campaign was organized enough to have ordered bumper stickers.

[Mr.Phips]

I just saw an Ogonowski bumper sticker today.

I was absolutely stunned that his campaign was organized enough to have ordered bumper stickers.

I saw a sign for him in the Salisbury Beach area back in July.

[Mr.Phips]

Wow, it looks like I was right about Democrats being overconfident here.  A Survey USA poll only shows Tsongas up 10%.  Keep in mind that this is a district that voted for John Kerry by 17% and Al Gore by 20%.  The DCCC would be smart to start running attack ads against Ogonowski now that link him to the Conservative Republican leadership in Washington.  If Democrats lose this seat, they are in BIG, BIG trouble in 2008. 

[WalterMitty]

I just saw an Ogonowski bumper sticker today.

I was absolutely stunned that his campaign was organized enough to have ordered bumper stickers.

I saw a sign for him in the Salisbury Beach area back in July.

i keep seeing a car in the stop and shop parking lot in somerville with a bush/cheney bumper sticker.

i wish i knew who owned that vehicle.  id like to shake his/her hand!