Germany: Poll shock - Social Democrats Behind Neo-Nazis in Saxony Survey

[Tender Branson]

Social Democrats Behind Neo-Nazis in Saxony Survey

According to a voter survey in the eastern German state of Saxony, 9 percent of the population supports the neo-Nazi NPD with just 8 percent in favor of the Social Democrats. The NPD says it's because the far-right party isn't racist.

That Germany's Social Democrats (SPD) are in free fall is nothing new. The center-left party, despite being Angela Merkel's coalition partner in Berlin, is overshadowed by the popularity of the chancellor. SPD leader Kurt Beck is unpopular and has a hard time even keeping his own party in line. And party membership is lower than it has been in half a century.

But on Thursday, the party hit a new low. A survey in the eastern German state of Saxony shows that, were voters to head to the polls on Sunday, more people in the state would mark the box next to the neo-Nazi party National Democratic Party (NPD) than would vote for the center-left SPD. The poll, carried out by Forsa, has 9 percent of those surveyed supporting the NPD with just 8 percent for the SPD.

The NPD celebrated the result in a press release, calling the numbers "really sensational." The poll comes just three weeks after Saxony was in the news after a xenophobic mob (more...) chased eight Indians through the town of Mügeln shouting "Foreigners Out!" before beating them up. The NPD on Thursday said the most recent poll is a result of the fact "that we didn't join the media-driven witch hunt against our own countrymen as happened in Mügeln." The press release also said the coverage of the Mügeln attack was "racist" and ended with the words: "Don't worry, the next elections are coming for sure."

The SPD, for its part, is shocked at the result. The party only managed 9.8 percent in Saxony in the last election -- which saw the NPD enter state parliament with 9.2 percent. But being behind the NPD is the clearest indication yet that the party hasn't managed to establish itself in former East Germany. The conservative Christian Democrats came in at 39 percent in the poll while the left-wing Left Party got 27 percent.

Fingers, though, were also pointed at the polling agency itself. Previous polls from other institutes consistently showed the NPD well behind the SPD, although the neo-Nazis have been making recent gains.

Nationwide, the picture isn't nearly as dark for the Social Democrats, but still a cause for concern. In general elections, the party would get 27 percent of the vote against 39 percent for the Christian Democrats, according to polling data publicized by public television on Thursday. Were Germans allowed to vote directly for their chancellor, CDU boss Angela Merkel would get 60 percent of the vote with SPD head Kurt Beck only managing 19 percent.

The Saxony poll comes despite nationwide shock at the August incident in Mügeln. A group of at least 50 right-wingers chased the eight Indians through the entire town. They tried to take shelter in a pizzeria, but the mob broke down the door and the windows. The incident led for a new call in Germany to ban the NPD party (more...). The proposal is controversial, however, due to a failed attempt to ban the party in 2003. Many are concerned that, should a ban fail again, the NPD would be strengthened.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,504427,00.html

[StateBoiler]

So the Social Democrats are behind both Die Lenke (the reformed communists) and the Neo-Nazis in Saxony?

And let me just say that banning political parties is beyond stupid.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Well if the nazis are more popular than social democrats in germany...

[Tender Branson]

Well if the nazis are more popular than social democrats in germany...

This poll is about the state of Saxony, not whole Germany. The state of Saxony makes up 5% of Germany's population.

[minionofmidas]

Social Democrats Behind Neo-Nazis in Saxony Survey

According to a voter survey in the eastern German state of Saxony, 9 percent of the population supports the neo-Nazi NPD with just 8 percent in favor of the Social Democrats.

In other words, nothing has changed compared to the last state elections. That's actually good news.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This thread should be moved to the elections board, btw.

[Tender Branson]

Social Democrats Behind Neo-Nazis in Saxony Survey

According to a voter survey in the eastern German state of Saxony, 9 percent of the population supports the neo-Nazi NPD with just 8 percent in favor of the Social Democrats.

In other words, nothing has changed compared to the last state elections. That's actually good news.

Well, the Nazis were polling between 3-9% in the last weeks before the 2004 state elections, mostly in the 5% range - but they got 9% on election day. Sure, this doesn´t have to be this way in the next elections in 2009, but what if they poll 10% in the weeks before the election but get 15% on election day ? It´s still alarming.

The current showing of the state SPD is catastrophic. They polled more than 10% all the time in the weeks before the 2004 state elections, but managed to get below 10% on election day ...

What´s next ? Nazis 15% SPD 7% ... ?

This thread should be moved to the elections board, btw.

Nope, it´s just an opinion poll, the next state elections are still 2 years away ...

[minionofmidas]

Social Democrats Behind Neo-Nazis in Saxony Survey

According to a voter survey in the eastern German state of Saxony, 9 percent of the population supports the neo-Nazi NPD with just 8 percent in favor of the Social Democrats.

In other words, nothing has changed compared to the last state elections. That's actually good news.

Well, the Nazis were polling between 3-9% in the last weeks before the 2004 state elections, mostly in the 5% range - but they got 9% on election day. Sure, this doesn´t have to be this way in the next elections in 2009, but what if they poll 10% in the weeks before the election but get 15% on election day ? It´s still alarming.

The current showing of the state SPD is catastrophic. They polled more than 10% all the time in the weeks before the 2004 state elections, but managed to get below 10% on election day ...

What´s next ? Nazis 15% SPD 7% ... ?

This thread should be moved to the elections board, btw.

Nope, it´s just an opinion poll, the next state elections are still 2 years away ...

Well in that case it doesn't deserve its own thread. Maybe we should have a General Germany Thread like the Irish one.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's a poll shock?

Anyway, bottomline is that the PDS/LINKE has managed to become the major left-wing party opposite to the right-wing CDU a while ago in Saxony and also in neighbouring Thuringia, while the SPD is only a minor political force. I guess, there can only one major left-wing and one major right-wing party and the SPD has simply missed the opportunity. So, they practically switched their roles... and this happened before the NPD was elected to the state parliament the first time. So, those two issues are unrelated in my opinion.

As for the NPD, the state of Saxony is undoubtly the most important of their strongholds in Germany and there is unfortunately the real possibility they they'll return to the state parliament in the next election(s?).

Ironically, Saxony is also the only East German state where representatives of the Greens are sitting in the parliament. Then again, all minor political parties fared well there in the last election... well, except for the SPD.

EDIT: Just looked it up. The best result the SPD ever manged to get in a Saxony state election was 19.1%... and this happened in 1990.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Just saw two sentences in that article I'd like to comment.

But being behind the NPD is the clearest indication yet that the party hasn't managed to establish itself in former East Germany.

Oh, the SPD is quite established in Brandenburg and Mecklenburg, and at least partially in Saxony-Anhalt (although they are often neck to neck with the LINKE there, so the last word on who's the major left-wing force hasn't spoken yet... in the other two states the SPD was more succesful than both the CDU and the LINKE in the last few election cycles, so judge for yourself).

A group of at least 50 right-wingers chased the eight Indians through the entire town.

Uh, those weren't right-wingers, just "ordinary citizens" of that town. Sad, but true.

[minionofmidas]

Just saw two sentences in that article I'd like to comment.

But being behind the NPD is the clearest indication yet that the party hasn't managed to establish itself in former East Germany.

Oh, the SPD is quite established in Brandenburg and Mecklenburg, and at least partially in Saxony-Anhalt (although they are often neck to neck with the LINKE there, so the last word on who's the major left-wing force hasn't spoken yet... in the other two states the SPD was more succesful than both the CDU and the LINKE in the last few election cycles, so judge for yourself).

A group of at least 50 right-wingers chased the eight Indians through the entire town.

Uh, those weren't right-wingers, just "ordinary citizens" of that town. Sad, but true.

They weren't organized neonazis. Not the same thing as not rightwingers.

[Middle-aged Europe]

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Didn't know that they already had investigated the political affiliation or ideology (does "racism" count as ideology?) of all the perpetrators.

Granted, it's pretty unlikely that many Green voters were among them and the share of NPD voters was probably above average, but aside from that it's quite possible that people who voted for CDU, SPD, LINKE, and FDP the last time were also among them in relatively large numbers. Of course, there was probably also a large share of non-voters.

[Tender Branson]

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Didn't know that they already had investigated the political affiliation or ideology (does "racism" count as ideology?) of all the perpetrators.

Granted, it's pretty unlikely that many Green voters were among them and the share of NPD voters was probably above average, but aside from that it's quite possible that people who voted for CDU, SPD, LINKE, and FDP the last time were also among them in relatively large numbers. Of course, there was probably also a large share of non-voters.

Well, live in East German small towns probably is so boring and dull, that it´s quite an amusement once in a while to chase a bunch of Indians through the streets of the village and lock them up in a pizzeria ...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Well, live in East German small towns probably is so boring and dull, that it´s quite an amusement once in a while to chase a bunch of Indians through the streets of the village and lock them up in a pizzeria ...

No, it's just "nice" to have someone you can a) blame for your life and b) release some frustration on.

[Tender Branson]

Well, live in East German small towns probably is so boring and dull, that it´s quite an amusement once in a while to chase a bunch of Indians through the streets of the village and lock them up in a pizzeria ...

No, it's just "nice" to have someone you can a) blame for your life and b) release some frustration on.

That´s what I wanted to express with the above, sadly as it is ...

[Beet]

Well Europe is moving right. Along with the rest of the world outside America.

[Lief 🗽]

The Nazi party isn't banned in Germany? I always thought they were. Unless this group is able to get by through calling themselves a different name.

[Erc]

What sort of leeway does the Chancellor have in calling Federal Elections in Germany?

[Verily]

What sort of leeway does the Chancellor have in calling Federal Elections in Germany?

Theoretically, she could engineer a collapse of the government by having the CDU/CSU vote no confidence, but I believe she cannot dissolve the government herself.

[??????????]

Well Europe is moving right. Along with the rest of the world outside America.

lolz

[minionofmidas]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Didn't know that they already had investigated the political affiliation or ideology (does "racism" count as ideology?) of all the perpetrators.

Lol, that's not what I meant. Anyways I was counting the CDU under "rightwing" - note the absence of the term "extreme".

A propos of virtually nothing, I just checked...

Code:

Mügeln                        Saxony
2005 (2002)
CDU 33.0 (-4.9)          33.6 (-3.6)
Left 24.1 (+8.5)          22.8 (+6.6)
SPD 22.9 (-11.2)         24.5 (-8.8)
FDP 9.2 (+2.7)            10.2 (+2.9)
NPD 4.9 (+3.8)            4.8 (+3.4)
Greens 3.4 (+1.0)        4.8 (+0.2)

Nothing out of the ordinary.
2005 figures include postal votes for some neighboring smaller places, meaning a) they're not strictly comparable to 2002 b) the turnout figure for 2005 is completely worthless. 2002's was 73.7%.
Saxony 2005 was 75.7 (+2.0). Strange. I wasn't aware of that uptick in turnout at all.

Code:

2004 (1999)
Mügeln                     Saxony
turnout 68.4 (+7.0) 59.6 (-1.5)
CDU 41.6 (-20.9)     41.4 (-15.8)
PDS 24.0 (+5.1)      23.6 (+1.4)
SPD 9.8 (-0.3)         9.8 (-0.9)
NPD 9.7 (+8.2)         9.2 (+7.8)
FDP 7.6 (+6.2)        5.9 (+4.8)
Greens 3.2 (+1.2)   5.1 (+2.5)

[Hash]

Saxony is a weird and sad state. But, within 2 years anything can change. After all, a Quebec poll gave the PQ 51% in 2006!

[Tender Branson]

Saxony is a weird and sad state. But, within 2 years anything can change. After all, a Quebec poll gave the PQ 51% in 2006!

Sure, but the current CDU-SPD-coalition in Saxony is under heavy pressure right now because of a scandal state bank. The CDU got 58% of the vote in the 1994 elections and just 41% in 2004. The slide will continue and sadly the NPD will probably benefit ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A propos of virtually nothing, I just checked...

Code:

Mügeln                        Saxony
2005 (2002)
CDU 33.0 (-4.9)          33.6 (-3.6)
Left 24.1 (+8.5)          22.8 (+6.6)
SPD 22.9 (-11.2)         24.5 (-8.8)
FDP 9.2 (+2.7)            10.2 (+2.9)
NPD 4.9 (+3.8)            4.8 (+3.4)
Greens 3.4 (+1.0)        4.8 (+0.2)

Nothing out of the ordinary.
2005 figures include postal votes for some neighboring smaller places, meaning a) they're not strictly comparable to 2002 b) the turnout figure for 2005 is completely worthless. 2002's was 73.7%.
Saxony 2005 was 75.7 (+2.0). Strange. I wasn't aware of that uptick in turnout at all.

Code:

2004 (1999)
Mügeln                     Saxony
turnout 68.4 (+7.0) 59.6 (-1.5)
CDU 41.6 (-20.9)     41.4 (-15.8)
PDS 24.0 (+5.1)      23.6 (+1.4)
SPD 9.8 (-0.3)         9.8 (-0.9)
NPD 9.7 (+8.2)         9.2 (+7.8)
FDP 7.6 (+6.2)        5.9 (+4.8)
Greens 3.2 (+1.2)   5.1 (+2.5)

The CDU and SPD figures are very different at federal and state level. What's the reason for that?

[Tender Branson]

The CDU and SPD figures are very different at federal and state level. What's the reason for that?

Saxony has a rightist voting pattern on the state level (which is slowly declining in recent years), but seems to vote for the left in federal elections.

For example in the first state elections in 1990 the combined vote of the center-right parties (CDU, FDP, NDP, DSU) was 63% while their share declined to 57% in the 2004 state elections.

Meanwhile in the 2005 federal elections the combined vote for the Left parties in Saxony was 54% to the 46% of the combined Right.

A possible reason why the CDU gets 40% in state elections and just 30% in federal elections and the SPD 10% in state and 25% in federal elections may be the fact that voters simply trust the federal SPD more than the local SPD, which has been sidelined by a stronger state Left Party.