Germany: Poll shock - Social Democrats Behind Neo-Nazis in Saxony Survey

[Middle-aged Europe]

The CDU and SPD figures are very different at federal and state level. What's the reason for that?

Gerhard Schröder. And Kurt Biedenkopf. Also Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber.


Okay, first things first: The whole East tends to vote SPD in federal elections, at least this was the case in 1998, 2002, and 2005 (not sure about '94).

Of course, this creates the gap you mentioned: Some eastern states (Brandenburg for example), vote SPD in both federal and state elections, while other states vote SPD in federal and CDU in state elections (e.g. Saxony-Anhalt in '02 and '05/'06).

So, why this gap between federal and state elections and between some eastern states and other eastern states? And why did the CDU's share of vote decline so dramatically in the 2004 Saxony state election compared to earlier state elections?

One of the main reasons (not the only one, but an important one) is that East Germany is only a multi-party democracy since about 17 years. As a result, there are almost no traditional political alignments or cleavages and many East Germans don't identify themselves with a specific political party... or at least they do in much smaller numbers than it is common in West Germany or other Western nations.

So, what do you base your vote on then? Answer: On who the people are who lead those political parties. In Saxony, the CDU won the state election of 1990 and Kurt Biedenkopf became PM there for the next 12 years. Then he stepped down and Georg Milbradt became his successor. In the first post-Biedenkopf election (2004), the CDU received their worst state election result since re-unification of Germany. They were still by far the largest/strongest party, but their base had suddenly eroded.

In Brandenburg, the SPD won the state election of 1990 and Manfred Stolpe became PM there for the next 12 years (exactly like Biedenkopf in Saxony). Then he stepped down and Matthias Platzeck became his successor. The SPD actually lost some votes there in the first post-Stolpe election too, but those losses weren't as dramatic as Milbradt's in Saxony (on the other hand... Saxony's CDU went down from 57% to 41%, while the SPD's share of vote in Brandenburg dropped from 39% to 32%, so the CDU in Saxony is still stronger). However, all in all you can probably say that Platzeck manged to become about as popular as Stolpe was, while Milbradt failed to succeed Biedenkopf in that respect.

Anyway, the aforementioned success of the CDU in the 2006 state election in Saxony-Anhalt is also directly connected to the popularity of incumbent PM Wolfgang Böhmer too.


Let's take a look on federal elections now. 2002 is pretty easy, since most East Germans are personally disgusted by Edmund Stoiber. Stoiber played a role in 2005 too, since he was still an important figure in Merkel's campaign and he became (in)famous for some anti-East German remarks during the 2005 election.

Another factor in 2005 was that Merkel is an East German, but she doesn't present herself as an East German politician. Most voters saw her as part of the West German-based political elite, while Schröder somehow managed to portray himself as the champion of East German needs and interests in '02 and '05.

Let's try that anology: Edmund Stoiber is about as successful in East Germany as John Kerry was in the southern states of the United States. And Angela Merkel is about as successful in East Germany as Al Gore was in the southern states of the United States.

An additional factor is that the East German electorate is seen as pretty left-leaning... at least on ecomonomic issues. This explains the SPD's success in federal elections too. And to revisit the example of Saxony-Anhalt and Wolfgang Böhmer: Böhmer isn't exactly someone I would call a conservative or a follower of a specific political ideology. He's probably as centrist as you can get as a CDU state PM. That's another reason why Böhmer is much more popular than Merkel or other CDU politicans from the federal level in Saxony-Anhalt and that's why the SPD won the federal election and the CDU won the state election there.

[minionofmidas]

The CDU and SPD figures are very different at federal and state level. What's the reason for that?

Gerhard Schröder. And Kurt Biedenkopf. Also Angela Merkel and Edmund Stoiber.


Okay, first things first: The whole East tends to vote SPD in federal elections, at least this was the case in 1998, 2002, and 2005 (not sure about '94).

Not in 1994.

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Yeah. Many West Germans didn't like her for being too eastern, many East Germans didn't like her for being too Western.

Although she's more popular now. Even though I frankly can't see why. Well, except for the obvious (ie, lack of a visible alternative)...

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In US terms, East Germany is a bastion of populist sentiment.

[angus]

In US terms, East Germany is a bastion of populist sentiment.

LOL.  Have we finally put that old dog to rest?  I remember so many discussions about the meaning of "populist" a couple of years ago.  I still don't know what the hell it means. 


"Uns bleibt, was gut war und klar war:
Da man bei Dir immer durchsah
Und Liebe, Ha, doch nie Furcht sah
Comandante Che Guevara

Sie frchten Dich, und wir lieben
Dich vorn im Kampf, wo der Tod lacht
Wo das Volk Schlu mit der Not macht
- Nun bist du weg - und doch geblieben

Uns bleibt, was gut war und klar war:
Da man bei Dir immer durchsah
Und Liebe, Ha, doch nie Furcht sah
Comandante Che Guevara

Und bist kein Bonze geworden
Kein hohes Tier, das nach Geld schielt
Und vom Schreibtisch aus den Held spielt
in feiner Kluft mit alten Orden.

Uns bleibt, was gut war und klar war:
Da man bei Dir immer durchsah
Und Liebe, Ha, doch nie Furcht sah
Comandante Che Guevara

Ja, grad die Armen der Erde
Die brauchen mehr als zu fressen
Und das hast Du nie vergessen
Da aus den Menschen Menschen werden

Uns bleibt, was gut war und klar war:
Da man bei Dir immer durchsah
Und Liebe, Ha, doch nie Furcht sah
Comandante Che Guevara

Der rote Stern an der Jacke
Im schwarzen Bart die Zigarre
Jesus Christus mit der Knarre
- so fhrt Dein Bild uns zur Attacke

Uns bleibt, was gut war und klar war:
Da man bei Dir immer durchsah,
Und Liebe, Ha, doch nie Furcht sah,
Comandante Che Guevara"

         --Wolf Bierman, Comandante Che Guevara

[StateBoiler]

In US terms, East Germany is a bastion of populist sentiment.

LOL.  Have we finally put that old dog to rest?  I remember so many discussions about the meaning of "populist" a couple of years ago.  I still don't know what the hell it means. 

My definition is a politician that shows himself as "champion of the people", is conservative or moderate on social issues, not a socialist but does not believe in tight money either, and absolutely loves to dish out pork.

That definition applies to most non-black southern Democrats.

[angus]

My definition is a politician that shows himself as "champion of the people", is conservative or moderate on social issues, not a socialist but does not believe in tight money either, and absolutely loves to dish out pork.

Sounds more James Michael Curley than Angela Merckel.  Seems we haven't settled this question at all.

[Colin]

My definition is a politician that shows himself as "champion of the people", is conservative or moderate on social issues, not a socialist but does not believe in tight money either, and absolutely loves to dish out pork.

Sounds more James Michael Curley than Angela Merckel.  Seems we haven't settled this question at all.

Well as many have said previously in this thread Angela Merkel is about as much of an East Germany politician as Al Gore is a Southern one. Also Populist has generally been said to mean socially conservative and economically leftist, at least on this forum.