First Poll in Colorado

[Lief 🗽]

http://mydd.com/story/2007/9/8/12659/38561

Colorado Senate Match-up
Mark Udall 45%
Bob Schaffer 40%

Much closer than many would expect, but this is an internal poll from Schaffer, so take it with a grain of salt.

[Sam Spade]

Toss the internal/partisan polls, please.  Ugh.

[Verily]

Schaffer internal? He's toast.

[Eraserhead]

Schaffer internal? He's toast.

[MarkWarner08]

Schaffer internal? He's toast.

Let's wait to see if the Boulder liberal label sticks to Udall. Just look at what happened to "Liberal Lawyer-Lobbyist" Tom Strickland.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder what Rawlings has to say.

[Verily]

I wonder what Rawlings has to say.

"Schaffer is releasing this internal to get the Democrats' hopes up so they don't take the race seriously. He's a really smart guy, someone who Colorado voters can identify with, unlike that dirty liberal."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Schaffer internal? He's toast.

A year and two months out?  Nah.

A 45-40 internal is about where I'd expect this to be.  I also expect Schaffer to pick up about two or three points over the polling come election day, similar (but less in magnitude) to how Allard gained signficantly between the final poll and election day in 2002.

[Aizen]

Not a very reliable poll but this shows nothing good for Schaffer.

[Mr.Phips]

Schaffer internal? He's toast.

A year and two months out?  Nah.

A 45-40 internal is about where I'd expect this to be.  I also expect Schaffer to pick up about two or three points over the polling come election day, similar (but less in magnitude) to how Allard gained signficantly between the final poll and election day in 2002.

This wasnt the case in 2004 though.  Most polls showed the Salazar/Coors race to be a dead heat and some even had Coors leading, yet Salazar won by four points.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, look what I predicted in May:

PS: I think the first CO presidential polls will show a slight advantage for the Republican candidate (0-5%) and a Toss-Up in the Senate. (+/- 3%)

I´d wait for a Rasmussen poll though to back this up, but Schaffer´ll have a hard time to win this thing. If Rasmussen or M-D show udall up by 5-10%, even a nominated Clinton eventually wouldn´t do much damage to drag Udall down below 50% ...

[Mr.Phips]

Hmm, look what I predicted in May:

PS: I think the first CO presidential polls will show a slight advantage for the Republican candidate (0-5%) and a Toss-Up in the Senate. (+/- 3%)

I´d wait for a Rasmussen poll though to back this up, but Schaffer´ll have a hard time to win this thing. If Rasmussen or M-D show udall up by 5-10%, even a nominated Clinton eventually wouldn´t do much damage to drag Udall down below 50% ...

I don't really buy all of this talk that Hillary will drag down lots of Democrats.  The people who really hate her are probably going to come out anyway and vote against the Democratic nominee.

[Smash255]

Down 5% in your own internal that you release  OUCH

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Down 5% in your own internal that you release  OUCH

[Alcon]

The problems with internals is, they can either be extremely biased or not biased at all.  But I've only ever seen one internal that underestimated the candidate releasing it.  It's too far out for polls to matter, but this isn't even suggesting anything new.  We already knew Shaffer is in trouble, after all.

[Smash255]

The problems with internals is, they can either be extremely biased or not biased at all.  But I've only ever seen one internal that underestimated the candidate releasing it.  It's too far out for polls to matter, but this isn't even suggesting anything new.  We already knew Shaffer is in trouble, after all.

well except for Rawlings....