SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%.

[HardRCafé]

I like to predict what actually happens.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Safe Kucinich.

[MarkWarner08]

If this race truly tightens, expect the DCCC to pump cash. Despite the anecdotal evidence, I still expect a 5% victory for Tsongas.

[Dan the Roman]

If this race truly tightens, expect the DCCC to pump cash. Despite the anecdotal evidence, I still expect a 5% victory for Tsongas.

Probably about right. We had a Senate Race last year that looked a bit like this. Ultra-Heavy Democratic District(Romney lost it by 20 points in 2002), but a weak Democrat against a strong Republican. It looked like it was getting close and ended being about 54-46. The last five points are enormous climb for a Republican in Mass. Its good that Ognowski has gotten close, but each point afterwards is going to be a mammoth climb.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If this race truly tightens, expect the DCCC to pump cash. Despite the anecdotal evidence, I still expect a 5% victory for Tsongas.

Probably about right. We had a Senate Race last year that looked a bit like this. Ultra-Heavy Democratic District(Romney lost it by 20 points in 2002), but a weak Democrat against a strong Republican. It looked like it was getting close and ended being about 54-46. The last five points are enormous climb for a Republican in Mass. Its good that Ognowski has gotten close, but each point afterwards is going to be a mammoth climb.

No such district exists in the Commonwealth—all "close" races were in districts Romney carried easily.

[Dan the Roman]

It was a special election for the Second Middlesex, which encompeses Somerville, Winchester, and Medford. Winchester went 59-37 for Romney in 2002 but only made up 10% of the seat. medford went 50-45 for Shannon O'Brien and made up 30%. Somerville went 61-29 for O'Brien in 2002.

in 2002:

Romney 21,229 40%
O'Brien  27,382 52%
Stein(Green) 3090 6%
Howell(Lib) 478 1%
Johson 286 1%

So yes Romney only lost by twelve, but if you include the Green votes he lost by 18. In 2005 Charlie Shannon, Republican turned Democrat who had held the seat since 1990 died, there was a special election. State Rep. Patricia Jehlen won the Democratic Primary, and beat Republican Bill White 55-45. White ran a good margin ahead of Romney.

[Brittain33]

So yes Romney only lost by twelve, but if you include the Green votes he lost by 18. In 2005 Charlie Shannon, Republican turned Democrat who had held the seat since 1990 died, there was a special election. State Rep. Patricia Jehlen won the Democratic Primary, and beat Republican Bill White 55-45. White ran a good margin ahead of Romney.

That's an interesting race to analogize here, and I mean that positively. I would say that Jehlen wasn't just a weak candidate, she was hated by the old machine in Somerville which voted for Bill White as a protest. Conversely, Bill White wasn't that strong a candidate, he just enjoyed a solid reputation in Somerville and became the suitable vehicle for protest votes.

Differences: state vs. federal races, obviously. White was a liberal who differed from the city Democrats on local policies and has actually switched to the Democrats since that election. People didn't mind elected a Republican to the legislature, but might feel differently about sending George W. Bush another proxy in Washington. Secondly, I can't imagine people hate Niki Tsongas with the fervor they felt against Jehlen. Some people will want to vote against her because they don't respect her or how she won the nomination, but there will be no STOP TSONGAS campaign the way there was against Jehlen.

[minionofmidas]

That would seem to be a pretty polarized seat - maybe all that really happened was that Somerville turnout was down far more than in the Republican parts?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

That's an interesting race to analogize here, and I mean that positively. I would say that Jehlen wasn't just a weak candidate, she was hated by the old machine in Somerville which voted for Bill White as a protest. Conversely, Bill White wasn't that strong a candidate, he just enjoyed a solid reputation in Somerville and became the suitable vehicle for protest votes.

Differences: state vs. federal races, obviously. White was a liberal who differed from the city Democrats on local policies and has actually switched to the Democrats since that election. People didn't mind elected a Republican to the legislature, but might feel differently about sending George W. Bush another proxy in Washington. Secondly, I can't imagine people hate Niki Tsongas with the fervor they felt against Jehlen. Some people will want to vote against her because they don't respect her or how she won the nomination, but there will be no STOP TSONGAS campaign the way there was against Jehlen.

Yep.  Old Somerville vs. New Somerville.  Though I don't know if people "hated" Jehlen.

[Brittain33]

That would seem to be a pretty polarized seat - maybe all that really happened was that Somerville turnout was down far more than in the Republican parts?

It's not that polarized... Winchester is more Republican than Medford or Somerville, but not by much, and the population is small. There's no Republican infrastructure anywhere in the district. In this case, a large contingent of voters in Somerville opted for Bill White because they knew him from town and wanted to vote against Pat Jehlen.  This race was driven by personalities, not issues or party. 

Mr. Moderate, "hate" is not too strong a word. If you have time to waste, you should see how Jehlen and her allies are discussed in The Somerville News.

[minionofmidas]

It's not that polarized... Winchester is more Republican than Medford or Somerville, but not by much.

Winchester went 59-37 for Romney in 2002 but only made up 10% of the seat. medford went 50-45 for Shannon O'Brien and made up 30%. Somerville went 61-29 for O'Brien in 2002.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Mr. Moderate, "hate" is not too strong a word. If you have time to waste, you should see how Jehlen and her allies are discussed in The Somerville News.

As someone who lives in Somerville, I assure you that even speaking the name "The Somerville News" is to give it too much credit.

And yes, Winchester is INFINITELY more Republican than Somerville (Cambridge-lite).  It is a miracle that Bill White was ever elected as a Republican here ever; further a miracle that Charlie Shannon was ever elected as a Republican himself.

Of course, both eventually had a "change of conscience" and switched to Democrats.

[Brittain33]

Winchester went 59-37 for Romney in 2002 but only made up 10% of the seat. medford went 50-45 for Shannon O'Brien and made up 30%. Somerville went 61-29 for O'Brien in 2002.

Ok, I can't argue with that. It must be because of the lack of opportunities to vote for viable Republicans that I had the wrong impression about Winchester.

Regardless, Winchester isn't what made Jehlen-White close.

[minionofmidas]

Winchester went 59-37 for Romney in 2002 but only made up 10% of the seat. medford went 50-45 for Shannon O'Brien and made up 30%. Somerville went 61-29 for O'Brien in 2002.

Ok, I can't argue with that. It must be because of the lack of opportunities to vote for viable Republicans that I had the wrong impression about Winchester.

Regardless, Winchester isn't what made Jehlen-White close.

Okay. If all you Massachusetters tell me that, I'm going to believe it. It was just a suspicion I had when seeing the numbers.

[Dan the Roman]

White actually did best in Somerville. He lost Winchester and Medford 60-40 each. What is interesting is that turnout in Winchester was down from 5000 in the primary to 2000 in the general. Paul Casey, an ultra-conservative Democrat had won 2500 votes there in the primary. Had they turned out in the general for White he would have won.

Living in Winchester, my understanding though is that people saw nothing to choose between two Somerville liberals.

[WalterMitty]

i was under the impression that jehlen is well liked by the somerville liberals.

but i really only know two things about her...

1.  ive never voted for her.
2.  she knocked on my door last fall campaigning for deval patrick (who i also didnt vote for)