SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%.

[Torie]

It may be that there is some attraction to Massachussets voters to having at least one congressman from the "other" party, to run the traps for parochial state interests. Back before rocks cooled, McCormack was careful to protect two or three GOP seats during redistricting.

[Torie]

Redmond won because a Green in Santa Fe siphoned off middle class liberal Anglo votes against an Hispanic machine hack, and Redmond took the seat with a plurality of something like 39% of the vote (don't hold me to that percentage). In the subsequent election, the third party factor was gone, and although Redmond worked hard at it, and did increase his vote with the Native Americans in particular in the Pueblos and beyond (up to something like maybe 43% of the total vote), it was not enough, and he lost. If the Pubbie wins in a clean two party race in the Mass-5, he will have a chance to cement himself into the seat, if he has the skills. Does he have the skills? I doubt it.

[Torie]

Sorry for my absence.

There is one other factor here that is not being mentioned. The candidate of the Lowell machine lost in the primary, and as was seen in the 1998 Governor's race, the Lowell Democratic machine is more than happy to back Republicans against a democrat they don't like in order to elect their democrat later. That year Cellucci actually won Lowell, wheras Romney lost it by 20+ points four years later because the machine turned out its votes for the GOP.

If Tsongas loses this time, then Elaine Donogue will be the obvious candidate for 2008. I have spoken with a number of Lowell Democrats, and several of them have said they are voting Ognowski for exactly this reason, one of them even has an impeach Bush sign.  They are concerned that if Tsongas gets in she will be in for the long term.

Ya, but maybe when the Lowell machine hack is baaaack!, enough Dems won't want the wicked witch to be reanimated. The Pubbie has a chance here, if he is skilled. I don't think voters in this district will resent one Pubbie representing their state in Congress, particularly if the Dems are otherwise in control, and particularly if that Pubbie points out the errancy of his party from time to time, in order to reinforce the preconceptions of some Dems that their views are indeed "bipartisan."  Leach in Iowa survived in a hostile environment for a very long time. It can be done.

[Torie]

Actually it became heavily Dem when it was redistricted in 2000, and lost Davenport and gained Iowa City, the home of Iowa University, but Leach hung on for two more terms.