SurveyUSA (MA-05): Tsongas (D) 51%; Ogonowski (R) 41%.

[MarkWarner08]

This might have been a race, if the NRCC weren't broke.

[MarkWarner08]

This might have been a race, if the NRCC weren't broke.

Whoa, whoa, let's not go crazy here. 

Besides, if this poll is legit, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NRCC put a couple bucks here anyway.  I mean, after all, it'd be a great morale boost for the party to even come close in a seat like this.

Special elections are notoriously volatile and prone to producing surprising results 9(for example, OH-02). While Tsongas is no Schmidt, I think this race could've been decided by 4-5 points.

I had a dream in which the the NRCC spent $5 million on this race and then defaulted on their loans. Poor Tom Cole was bemoaning his party's fate as the repo fan took all of the NRCC's assets -- maybe then the selfish Republicans who voted for the 2005 bankruptcy bill would gain empathy for the Americans who are screwed every day by credit card companies! Fortunately for the NRCC, the RNC has enough cash to ensure that the House GOP's campaign arm never goes bankrupt.

[MarkWarner08]

Im going to make a prediction.  Tsongas will lose this race in a huge upset. 

Ognowski is similar to Hackett in a few ways: both are in districts that lean heavily in favor of the other party and both served their nation in the military. Differences: Hackett had the national wind and local conditions at his back. Ognowski has to run as a Republican in the a deep blue state in a year in which the GOP as a whole has a negative approval rating.

Tsongas will probably win by a closer than expected margin, maybe 5%, but I predict a "D hold."

[MarkWarner08]

When does the GOP ever have a positive approval rating in Massachusetts?

If Ogonowski's showing can tack more closely to Romney's 2002 showing, or even "somewhat outpace" K. Murph's 2006 showing, he's in pretty good shape.  I mean, Lowell is pretty damn Democratic, but there are towns in this district that went around 3:1 for Mitt.

I meant their approval nationally.

What motivation do GOP base voters have to vote in this special election? They're angry about immigration, a mishandled war, federal profligacy, and the ineptitude of their party's President. I doubt that Ogonowski will have the kind of grassroots army that lifted Ron Lewis to victory in 1994 and nearly pushed Paul Hackett to victory in 2005.

[MarkWarner08]

A poster on SwingStateProject reports that Tsongas' internals have the race down to single digits. Will the DCCC make a last minute ad buy? Looks like MA-05 is heating up.

[MarkWarner08]

"Ogonowski is trailing Paul Tsongas's widow by just ten points in a public poll, ten points in Republican internal polls, and supposedly just five points in an internal Democratic poll."

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzhhNmFjYmM5MmEyMjE5MjNmNDJmMDAyOWQzNjMxY2E=

[MarkWarner08]

Why is Marty Meehan still selfishly clinging to his $5.1 million war chest?

[MarkWarner08]

If this race truly tightens, expect the DCCC to pump cash. Despite the anecdotal evidence, I still expect a 5% victory for Tsongas.